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Adddington Friday - Early Tip


Happy Sunrise
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Since I was encouraged by some to take the 9s for Stella, here is one for you for those that want to get on at Thursday at 4pm when the odds come out.

It is Violet Knight.

1. It used to be trained by Gerard O'Reilly and was a bit wild but to my eye had ability and some speed. I thought it might win a race at long odds. Placed or won its early trials but ended up with a form line of 70507. When it got 5th it was only 1.5 lengths away.

2. It went out 4th, 5th, 10th, 5th and 7th favourite.

3. It's last race was in February 2020

4. Had a last trial with O'Reilly in May 2020 indicating a willingness to keep going with the horse.

5. Gets sacked.

6. Goes to Neil Burton. Trialed once more in 2020 and another trial in February and one more in March 2021

7. Has a rest.

8. Gets 3rd out of 4 at a Geraldine trial in October 2021

9. Gets 9th out of 10 at Methven trials in November 2021

Now the horse is with Matt Purvis and, as said, it is nominated for headquarters on Friday night with no trials or workouts to its name. It has not raced for 2 years and has not had a trial for 3 months.

Burton gave Maximilian to Purvis and he has got it going very well so there must be a horse trading relationship there. Purvis has displayed a talent to improve horses eg Crystal Daytom, Gossip Girl and Articulight.

I think Violet Knight has ability and I quite liked it early on and enough is there for a trainer to keep persisting with it for nearly 2 years without a race.

I might take the initial odds which should be good as the noms for the race are pretty strong.

What do people think? 

I say its worth a go.

 

 

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56 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said:

Now the horse is with Matt Purvis and, as said, it is nominated for headquarters on Friday night with no trials or workouts to its name. It has not raced for 2 years and has not had a trial for 3 months.

I might take the initial odds which should be good as the noms for the race are pretty strong.

What do people think? 

I say its worth a go.

You have to be joking right? A horse hasn't raced for what 2 years with NO trials & you say the noms for the race are pretty strong.

I say NO. Based on the info you have given. 

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7 minutes ago, Rusty said:

Here you are Happy. Only the best for you mate, feel free to use it every week. 

20220131_211957.jpg

If you can't beat em join em?

Take the money and run?

Violet Knight is a genuine observation as I used to like the horse. Hence, why I know about it but it will be off most people's radar.

Edited by Happy Sunrise
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50 minutes ago, karrotsishere said:

You have to be joking right? A horse hasn't raced for what 2 years with NO trials & you say the noms for the race are pretty strong.

I say NO. Based on the info you have given. 

a horse won in Victoria the other day one trail and had not raced for 465days and payed 90cents to win on the nz tote was backed in from 1.08 

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8 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said:

If you can't beat em join em?

Take the money and run?

Violet Knight is a genuine observation as I used to like the horse. Hence, why I know about it but it will be off most people's radar.

Thanks for sharing your tip. That horse hasn't even featured in my atlas, nevermind the radar. 

What odds are we hoping to get for it (based on this early stage for noms only)? 

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7 minutes ago, Rusty said:

Thanks for sharing your tip. That horse hasn't even featured in my atlas, nevermind the radar. 

What odds are we hoping to get for it (based on this early stage for noms only)? 

11 noms so smaller field

Should be 9th or 10th fav.

Even field at top so market spread so TAB won't need to open at high odds.

Purvis factor eg crystal Daytom.

A measly 12 and 3.80 at worst. Best scenario 21 and 5.50

It's the TAB so go 10 and 3.30 😂

Edited by Happy Sunrise
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10 hours ago, far too much said:

a horse won in Victoria the other day one trail and had not raced for 465days and payed 90cents to win on the nz tote was backed in from 1.08 

Ok. Altho 2 years is more than 1 year & 3.5 months ish. But roger that. Just took a look at this trainer his stats etc as hadn't really heard of him. Doesn't look dodgy too me. 

Most likely if selections comp is on over Friday, even with bearing what you say in mind, prob won't go for him (my comp stats are 6 wins from 8 😄). Like the look of that Always B Miki horse + another maybe pending draw.

BUT Have A Go Happy. You never know might come up with the Chocs. 

@Happy Sunrise what is this Crystal Drayton factor thing you speak of?

Edited by karrotsishere
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2 hours ago, karrotsishere said:

@Happy Sunrise what is this Crystal Drayton factor thing you speak of?

Hahaha Karrots!! 

That is like furiously waving round a red tablecloth in front of a bull and asking him, what's this piece of material? Is it a flag, is it a bedsheet, a beach towel, a pair of bloomers?

Now where is my popcorn? 

20220201_103708.jpg

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23 minutes ago, Rusty said:

Hahaha Karrots!! 

That is like furiously waving round a red tablecloth in front of a bull and asking him, what's this piece of material? Is it a flag, is it a bedsheet, a beach towel, a pair of bloomers?

Now where is my popcorn? 

20220201_103708.jpg

Hahaha. Vaguely recall 1 of you 2 bringing up this horse & creating a topic thread. BUT at time, didn't really know what you guys were talking about. Just took a quick peak back at thread. Its funny looking back as Lightning & myself start talking about other things hahaha e.g. a driver/horse running into the back of another horse, & then standing starts. You then come in & say "may I get back to the topic thread" lol. Ok so paying attention now 😀

Laughter Wtf GIF by ADWEEK

 

 

 

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The Addington early Beach tip . The Big trot has some Big players with a 'Beach First 4'  on the cards.

Muscle Mountain- Five Wise Men- Midnight Dash - Heavyweight Hero ...... with the Paul Nairn trotter OutamyWay missing out sadly. 

p.s Not sure if Heavyweight Hero trained at the Beach or not, but suspect Bob would be in that area since David Butt was there, when winning Premierships ) 

HHero still a solid chance for 4th though lol........ 

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What a great trot that was too. ! Matthew Williamson trying to take full advantage of the 10m start he had, on his illustrious stable-mate and nearly pulled it off.

Trotting a NZ record for the mile 1/4 stand to Muscle Mountain . last mile in 1.57 odd . Five Wise Men nice 3rd on his comeback. Three very nice trotters indeed...

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16 minutes ago, Lightning Blue said:

Trotting a NZ record for the mile 1/4 stand to Muscle Mountain . last mile in 1.57 odd . 

To update,Original Time given (& NZ Record) was an error.

Unsure how amended correct time compares to old record!

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