Turny Posted April 8, 2023 Share Posted April 8, 2023 If you get a chance watch JMacs ride on Spangler race 4 Randwick today .. thats why he is top of the tree. A pearler. Unbelievable skill displayed. Clearly the horse is very talented too. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted April 8, 2023 Share Posted April 8, 2023 https://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2023Apr08&VenueCode=MjY4MTI4&RaceNumber=4&MeetingCategory=Professional&VideoFileType=FullReplay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny Posted April 8, 2023 Author Share Posted April 8, 2023 Drew 15 over 1400 .... his positioning and saving of ground was unbelievable, let alone the move 3 off the fence in an inch wide gap within 30 metres .... then whooska, see you later Class act, super smart pony Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJB Posted April 8, 2023 Share Posted April 8, 2023 His ride on Anamoe was perfect too...just needed to get off and carry him 200 out LOL...he is world class with a capital C for sure...long may he continue to keep kicking the winners home. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted April 9, 2023 Share Posted April 9, 2023 20 hours ago, Turny said: Drew 15 over 1400 .... his positioning and saving of ground was unbelievable, let alone the move 3 off the fence in an inch wide gap within 30 metres .... then whooska, see you later Class act, super smart pony Most probably know my views on barrier draws. Next to meaningless. But hey, each to their own. I hope you are not suggesting the horse would not have won with another rider though. Unless the other rider likes riding blindfold and facing backwards of course. Nothing against James, he is a very good rider. But the positive simply isn't usually worth the price impact. I watched some video the other day talking about very short priced runners and how they are often well below the true odds based on chance. The video was blasted by heaps of people on social media, for suggesting the person was nuts. Which is the very reason I make money. They simply called the guy an idiot for suggesting you should back horses to make a profit and not back horses based on who might win. I, and a number of others, have stated that making money has nothing to to with finding the winner of a race overall. It has everything to do with understanding chance and backing horses where you get a price that is beyond the chance. Yes, you still have to get winners (at a rate that confirms your chance assessment - or close to it). But you can easily lose money even if you back heaps of winners. You could easily back a winner every three races and still lose heaps. Most simply will never get this - and that is one of the major reasons I make money from punting whereas the majority lose it. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigos1 Posted April 9, 2023 Share Posted April 9, 2023 It was a great ride Tom. J Mac is class personified. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted April 9, 2023 Share Posted April 9, 2023 51 minutes ago, mardigras said: Most probably know my views on barrier draws. Next to meaningless. But hey, each to their own. I hope you are not suggesting the horse would not have won with another rider though. Unless the other rider likes riding blindfold and facing backwards of course. Nothing against James, he is a very good rider. But the positive simply isn't usually worth the price impact. I watched some video the other day talking about very short priced runners and how they are often well below the true odds based on chance. The video was blasted by heaps of people on social media, for suggesting the person was nuts. Which is the very reason I make money. They simply called the guy an idiot for suggesting you should back horses to make a profit and not back horses based on who might win. I, and a number of others, have stated that making money has nothing to to with finding the winner of a race overall. It has everything to do with understanding chance and backing horses where you get a price that is beyond the chance. Yes, you still have to get winners (at a rate that confirms your chance assessment - or close to it). But you can easily lose money even if you back heaps of winners. You could easily back a winner every three races and still lose heaps. Most simply will never get this - and that is one of the major reasons I make money from punting whereas the majority lose it. Which is why the presence of Te Akau and Bosson is so great for punters that look for value. The presence of a TA horse or Bosson, usually means the value of other horses in the field is increased. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny Posted April 9, 2023 Author Share Posted April 9, 2023 Mardi, in the field I set the horse at 6s got 15s, very pleased. I do factor in rider and draws for sprints particularly in class fields. However, only bet for value. Same same but different 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted April 9, 2023 Share Posted April 9, 2023 If you have the average winning dividend for a trainer or jockey, notwithstanding price movements if you are betting FO, then it should be the average dividend divided by the strike rate. Anything over 1, and you are making money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted April 9, 2023 Share Posted April 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Hesi said: If you have the average winning dividend for a trainer or jockey, notwithstanding price movements if you are betting FO, then it should be the average dividend divided by the strike rate. Anything over 1, and you are making money. I'm not sure what you are suggesting here Hesi - are you saying you should back them when they ride a horse over a price based on these averages? Can you expand? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Our Maizcay Posted April 11, 2023 Share Posted April 11, 2023 On 4/10/2023 at 9:35 AM, Hesi said: If you have the average winning dividend for a trainer or jockey, notwithstanding price movements if you are betting FO, then it should be the average dividend divided by the strike rate. this doesn't make much sense, you're saying the average winning dividend = the average dividend divided by the strike-rate?? won't this only be true if the strike-rate = 1 ? isn't the average winning dividend the total win dividends, for winning rides, divided by the number of rides? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted April 11, 2023 Share Posted April 11, 2023 Apologies in not replying sooner My post was really aimed at people who say they always back a certain stable or jockey and believe that is a way of making money. Explaining it better. Bosson has had 373 rides for 85 wins this season, a strike rate of 4.39. So in other words he wins a race every 4.39 rides that he has So, if you took the totalisator win dividend from all those 85 wins, and averaged it out, then for you to make money off Bosson, that average would have to be $4.40 or more. This data may already be available somewhere? Fixed odds is another story and harder to get a view on. In Bosson's case, the opening odds seems to shorten, in line with the tote, so if you get on earlier, his average FO win dividend would be better 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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