Republican Party to win NZ Cup 2024

[karrotsishere]

Here we go.

Put your NZ Cup predictions. Please do not include any Jason Grimson donkeys suddenly turned magically Group 1 winners hahaha just like magic he does it time & time again. Yet funnily he was done for betting against himself when he 1st started training. What has changed? As when the magic started he didnt have great horses nor did he have fab wealthy owners. Maybe need to re name this as J Grimson watch!

Go Republican Party for 2024 NZ Cup! Go Nods horse.

Edited March 25 by karrotsishere

[karrotsishere]

No predictions yet ok Im still on RP. So he is not in The Race. How odd!! Altho looks like he's building fitness. Maybe a chance at getting as a scratching. In saying that Camb is such a tricky track where draw matters. Good chance for the race with a good draw (if gets in), but my preference for him is over distance over the younger new comers to open class Merlin & DSD. Hes beaten Akuta before. Have they? Umm no. Blew start last year Cup to run a good 5th or 6th. Nod get him practicing, stand start matters. Need it to gun to lead & win NZ Cup.

Btw where is Cast No Shadow, back in thr Shadows suddenly from a sudden raise from nothing to winning G1 to just as quick nothing again. 

[Lightning Blue]

26 minutes ago, karrotsishere said:

No predictions yet ok Im still on RP. So he is not in The Race. How odd!! Altho looks like he's building fitness. Maybe a chance at getting as a scratching. In saying that Camb is such a tricky track where draw matters. Good chance for the race with a good draw (if gets in), but my preference for him is over distance over the younger new comers to open class Merlin & DSD. Hes beaten Akuta before. Have they? Umm no. Blew start last year Cup to run a good 5th or 6th. Nod get him practicing, stand start matters. Need it to gun to lead & win NZ Cup.

Btw where is Cast No Shadow, back in thr Shadows suddenly from a sudden raise from nothing to winning G1 to just as quick nothing again. 

He's about to race tonight in an hour or 2 at a Cambridge meeting  in a group 2 Karrots.

Republican Party is up against some recent Aussie winners and place-getters in Merlin, Sooner The Better, South Coast Arden, Don't Stop Dreaming as well as the old champ Self Assured and the local lad 'Old Town Road' 

Will be interesting to see if you change your pick for the Cup  🏆 😉after this race 😆 

[karrotsishere]

34 minutes ago, Lightning Blue said:

He's about to race tonight in an hour or 2 at a Cambridge meeting  in a group 2 Karrots.

Republican Party is up against some recent Aussie winners and place-getters in Merlin, Sooner The Better, South Coast Arden, Don't Stop Dreaming as well as the old champ Self Assured and the local lad 'Old Town Road' 

Will be interesting to see if you change your pick for the Cup  🏆 😉after this race 😆 

Hehe there you are Lightening. Wont be changing my NZ Cup pick, unless he is injured. Im not counting any of Grimsons as starters even if they start. They r void for this banter fun RP pick. 

Ok re tonight. Even if he doesnt win tonight Camb is such a front runner, rail bias track, so cant really judge tonights race comparing to Addy NZ Cup track unless straight to lead, but then if so he gains the advantage. 

Hes gaining fitness, so will take improvement.

Cant wait for the NZ Cup. Go Rupublician Party. 

[karrotsishere]

1 hour ago, karrotsishere said:

.Ok re tonight. Even if he doesnt win tonight Camb is such a front runner, rail bias track, so cant really judge tonights race comparing to Addy NZ Cup track unless straight to lead, but then if so he gains the advantage. 

Hes gaining fitness, so will take improvement.

Missed race but watched replay. As soon as RP didnt keep going forward at start & ended up 4 back running line it was over. As per my post & also on Gallops post Camb front runner rail bias. Lead 2nd, trail 4th, 3- back unlucky 5th. Winner was up near front parked. Race was mile. 

Cant be building fitness & go 3 wide entirely around final corner without cover over mile against stiff opposition & win unless you are a Grimson runner with endless stamina. 

So yip still on RP for NZ Cup. Go RP.

 

Edited April 4 by karrotsishere

[Globederby19]

13 hours ago, karrotsishere said:

So yip still on RP for NZ Cup. Go RP.

Couldn't have him for mine Karrots. Dont Stop Dreaming went passed him easily to power home after getting dragged up.,behind him.  Stayers have a good record over the sprint distance because they can usually sustain a longer sprint at the end. RP was sadly lacking in that department, fitness or not.  My old warhorse Self Assured (stayer)was climbing all over them at the business end, albeit with a trail 3 back and not doing to much early, and with room would have made it very close.  Im sticking with him if they put him into the Cup.  

[karrotsishere]

Great we have some early selections NZ Cup picks

Globe - Self Assured

Lightening - Dont Stop Dreaming

Karrots - Republican Party

Closer to time if your runner doesnt start can pick another. A friendly reminder Grimson runners if any are void for this fun comp. 

Where is Swayzee? Still on that extended vacation. 

Edited April 5 by karrotsishere

[karrotsishere]

Just checked Merlin, (he is available for someone to select NZ Cup) & spotted he had 5 months off then when he came back was building fitness. Got 3rd, then another (3rd by 8 lenghts! to DSD & a Grimson runner ex Telfer), then bang, bang, bang winning, once fitness was at peak.

Kango will be replacement for The Race for The Doo. Kango ran a nice 4th. So great for connections. So maybe as they might draw 11 in field IF so would mean RP would be E1. 

Camb is such a funny lil track & I prefer RP for NZ Cup. He hasnt been at full fitness, like Merlin wasnt as per my example 😀

Edited April 5 by karrotsishere

[Rusty]

3 hours ago, karrotsishere said:

Where is Swayzee? Still on that extended vacation. 

Very good question. 

 

3 hours ago, karrotsishere said:

Just checked Merlin, (he is available for someone to select NZ Cup) 

I'm picking Merlin to run a place, behind the winner, Millwood Nike!  

[karrotsishere]

Oh yes Millwood Nike. Forgot about her & also I made mistake Lightenig said he liked Jollimont (Lou) not DSD for NZ Cup.

Rusty - Millwood Nike

Lightening - Jollimont

Globe - Self Assured

Karrots - Republician Party

Ill do a The Race prediction on here too once field is out. Think I gave a pre race commentary how field position & race placing last year & it was exactly as predicted. With Maxi saying impressive hehe. Prob wont be able to it 2 times in a row. But will have a crack. 

Other people can put down their predictions too for The Race & pre race commentary. 

[Globederby19]

On 4/6/2024 at 11:56 AM, karrotsishere said:

Lightening - Jollimont

I very much doubt you will see Jolimont in the Cup ,LB. Only lightly raced, a 5 win horse  and still a 4yr old. Four year olds don't win the Cup often, only 8 since 1976 have, and some of them have been outstanding. Jolimont has a way to go yet, but will be a stronger horse as a 5yr old.  Millwood Nike  ???, has only won once past 2200, another 4 yr old and a mare, and only Mainland Banner can lay claim to that as a NZ cup winner as a 4yr old mare. Has the sheer brilliance and ability though. 

Edited April 7 by Globederby19

[karrotsishere]

Last years NZ Cup. Republician Party was last with 600 to go, 2nd last with 400 to go, as a result of galloping away & settling miles off leaders. He comes 3, then 4 then 5 wide, final result 5th in a field of 15. He ran past many horses & coming wide.

NZ TAB have him as 3rd equal fav for 2700m Messenger & 3rd fav for 3200m Auckland Cup. Must see him as a stayer like me & factoring in fitness rebuild.

Copy That another example of rebuilding fitness, went on to win 2nd NZ Cup. I read here Self Assured another fitness rebuild to win FFA last year. Picking RP will be same.

I can put Lightening back down for DSD.

Edited April 7 by karrotsishere

[Globederby19]

3 hours ago, karrotsishere said:

a result of galloping away & settling miles off leaders

Yes, but settled on the fence quite quickly and did nothing the whole trip  as the others all went around and tried to get nearer. He was entitled to have a sprint left after that cushie run and most of the others were tiring by then.  He will have to step, otherwise he is toast.

[Lightning Blue]

On 4/7/2024 at 3:29 PM, karrotsishere said:

Last years NZ Cup. Republician Party was last with 600 to go, 2nd last with 400 to go, as a result of galloping away & settling miles off leaders. He comes 3, then 4 then 5 wide, final result 5th in a field of 15. He ran past many horses & coming wide

A handy effort Karrots ,   but has he stepped up ? He hasn't won this year . and just one Win Last year ( when trailed the leader and passing laned)

I don't think he can win Friday either. 35m be too far back for him ? in a country Cup championship.

The Sweet Lou is in that we were telling you about JOLIMONT. Arna once again putting Mark aboard again steering . What a Winning Combo That is !!! 🏆

1

005412

Boudica

6

m

R60

1

Ft

Andre Poutama

Tony Thomas

2

595324

Bad Medicine

6

g

R61

2

Ft

David Butcher

Arna Donnelly

3

141342

Two Eye See

4

h

R59

3

Ft

Logan Hollis

Logan Hollis & Shane Robertson

4

373281

Hesashorething

6

h

R57

U1

Ft

Jay Abernethy

Adrienne Matthews

5

268445

Brookies Jaffa

8

g

R61

U2

Ft

Peter Ferguson

Jason Teaz

6

P06356

New York Minute

7

g

R59

U3

Ft

Zev Meredith(J)

Arna Donnelly

7

211982

Smoke On The Water

4

g

R70

1

10m

Samantha Ottley

Matt Purvis

8

211326

Miki Shan

4

h

R68

2

10m

Maurice McKendry

Maurice McKendry

9

344111

Jolimont

4

g

R68

U1

10m

Mark Purdon

Arna Donnelly

10

645345

Village Rebel

5

g

R66

U2

10m

Sailesh Abernethy

Nicky Chilcott

11

245X69

Republican Party

5

h

R98

1

35m

Blair Orange

Cran & Chrissie Dalgety

[karrotsishere]

9 hours ago, Lightning Blue said:

A handy effort Karrots, but has he stepped up ? He hasn't won this year . and just one Win Last year ( when trailed the leader and passing laned)

I don't think he can win Friday either. 35m be too far back for him ? in a country Cup championship.

The Sweet Lou is in that we were telling you about JOLIMONT. Arna once again putting Mark aboard again steering . What a Winning Combo That is !!! 🏆

 

You & Globe are cracking me up hahaha hehehe. Great banter guys. 

Ok so "but has he stepped up". My reply is from, what? he beat Akuta (after working to find front early & he was a rating 100. (Pretty good UDR too 32 starts 14 wins, 5 places, 2 thirds). Just dropped to 98 hence he has to give your fav Jollimont 25m & others 35m. If you take a look at his rating you see how he progresses thru the grades consistantly up & up & up. Til hit 100. In his only 2 starts this year (rebuilding fitness) he dropped 2 points. 

If small field Id say he could win. But its a bit big to get around all at Camb while hes still building fitness. Altho Jollimont may botch start & he could tag on quickly to 10m horses if he makes a quick get away. So you never know. Id say Messenager is more the goal. Key positive is stand start practice & long distance practice. 

 

RP winning after making a clean fast beginning. Beating Akuta & others. 

Edited April 9 by karrotsishere

[karrotsishere]

On 4/7/2024 at 8:55 PM, Globederby19 said:

Yes, but settled on the fence quite quickly and did nothing the whole trip  as the others all went around and tried to get nearer. He was entitled to have a sprint left after that cushie run and most of the others were tiring by then.  He will have to step, otherwise he is toast.

Hahaha hehehe, but he ran past many others on rail infront of him including BD Joe. And he was held up as tiring runners were dragging him back, while top 2 skipped away.

So if he didnt botch start & had a cushy run & had his sprint left as he did. If he had of lead or trailed then he could of won. See how he won in latest video I posted from trail. 

He will be a year older. So good age. Potentially stronger. I like him, Im sticking with him as my pick in Nov. I think Self Assured who is a goodie & NZ Cup winner, gets allegies that time of year, plus will be older too. Plus hes had a bit of racing, as has Merlin & DSD. Whereas RP is just coming back. The 3 later mentioned & others will have been up for a long time. 

[Lightning Blue]

1 hour ago, karrotsishere said:

He will be a year older. So good age. Potentially stronger. I like him, Im sticking with him as my pick in Nov. I think Self Assured who is a goodie & NZ Cup winner, gets allegies that time of year, plus will be older too

That's good Karrots . it's a hard race to win though and usually the Best in the nation will win it each year. (or run 2nd like Akuta) . hard to see the Pub being in the top 6 in nation.. and they didn't even bother putting Self Assured in it (NZ Cup) last year , and so he Won the Nz FFA on Showday instead 3 days later , to defend his crown in that race which he did at great odds too for the 2nd year running. Hat-Trick in Nov ? 

A solid chance in The Grin Race this Friday too. Self Assured having won the first one 2 years ago already.

Anyway can't wait to see them go !! . The country Cup will see your mate the 'RePub'  stride out against JOLIMONT . don't hold your breath on a win, with the Champ Marky Boy Purdon , driving the 'Jolly' good  horse lol.😅  (and has a couple of Arna stable-mates to help him along too ) 😁😉🌟

[Globederby19]

1 hour ago, karrotsishere said:

You & Globe are cracking me up hahaha hehehe.

You wind up easily Karrots. Come Cup time ,who knows who will be around, fit enough and ready to go. 

[Globederby19]

2 minutes ago, Lightning Blue said:

they didn't even bother putting Self Assured in it (NZ Cup) last year , and so he Won the Nz FFA on Showday instead 3 days later , to defend his crown in that race which he did at great odds too for the 2nd year running. Hat-Trick in Nov ? 

I wouldn't put it past him winning again. He is a super horse who very rarely puts in a bad run.  Sixty nine starts , sixty times in the money, thirty wins , beaten all comers in Aussie and here since he was a 3yr old , over just about all distances.  In my time he is one of the best to stick his head through a bridle. 

[karrotsishere]

23 hours ago, Lightning Blue said:

That's good Karrots . it's a hard race to win though and usually the Best in the nation will win it each year. (or run 2nd like Akuta) . hard to see the Pub being in the top 6 in nation.. and they didn't even bother putting Self Assured in it (NZ Cup) last year , and so he Won the Nz FFA on Showday instead 3 days later , to defend his crown in that race which he did at great odds too for the 2nd year running. Hat-Trick in Nov ? 

A solid chance in The Grin Race this Friday too. Self Assured having won the first one 2 years ago already.

Anyway can't wait to see them go !! . The country Cup will see your mate the 'RePub'  stride out against JOLIMONT . don't hold your breath on a win, with the Champ Marky Boy Purdon , driving the 'Jolly' good  horse lol.😅  (and has a couple of Arna stable-mates to help him along too ) 😁😉🌟

Had a bit more of a look & study, would like to see RP go up to R110 & maintain it this year. Thats a couple of wins & then hold rating.

Starting to think he should be winning Fri. With a good clean start he should latch on quick enough to pack. Can take a breather, then loop them & push onto lead. Prob be 6 in running line to loop, but has class to. Will have the respect to press onto lead. From there hard to get past him. Jollimonts 1st stand start & they have him on Unruly. 

Go RP & Go Jollimont (Lou). Good to have a couple of horses to follow this year!

23 hours ago, Globederby19 said:

Sixty nine starts , sixty times in the money, thirty wins , beaten all comers in Aussie and here since he was a 3yr old , over just about all distances.  In my time he is one of the best to stick his head through a bridle. 

Thats some amazing stats alright.

[karrotsishere]

Here is RPs start just prior NZ Cup last year. He started off 10m against FFAers mid size field. He settled last & looped field to sit parked on slushy track. Got 4th. But while not winning had the fastest time of all. So he can do it tough. Which is why I think Fri he can win. He was at peak fitness here tho. He only needs to improve a tad this year & with Akuta out of it. Hes a good chance NZ Cup. 

 

 

[Globederby19]

Karrots ,he should be close tomorrow against that class of horse over 2700, and I would be surprised if he wasn't fighting out the finish. Jolimont will be interesting with a 1rst stand start, but if he gets away cleanly he should by all accounts be fighting out the finish as well.  

[karrotsishere]

Ok here goes with race prediction. Did base it off fast track, but looks like rain. Which would take the speed out of some & completely change things.

Dont Stop Dreaming, crosses Kango, Speak the Truth comes buzzing over, now I was going to say & crosses or puts enough pressure on for DSD to take a trail. But with the rain it will be much harder to do so so this may not happen now. Scenerio 1 is he finds lead & scenerio 2 is he doesnt.

Merlin sees speed inside & outside so doesnt blast the arm, looks to get into running line somewhere. Mach Shard goes forward. Self Assured gets a run thru from DSD. Key here is for Old Town Road go out & cross down quickly infront of him. But Dickey wants to use his high speed for 1 run at them so eases him into running line Self Assured then takes up a position ahead of Old Town Road. Better Elipse makes a move forward during race to give cover is parked likely Mach Shard or Speak the Truth if STT doesnt find lead as per scenerio 2, 3 back outer is Self Assured scenerio 1 or 4 bak if Dont Speak truth doesnt make lead S2. Merlin & poss Sooner the Better get on train forward. Depending when Better Eclipse gets to parked during race will depend on whether he hands parked spot up. 

Kango sits on fence either 3 back S1 or trail if Speak the truth doesnt cross S2, if doesnt cross will be intially parked Speak Truth til cover comes quickly. South Coast Arden also be on fence 3 or 4 back. Sooner the better could duck back to fence early to be 4 back or 5 back fence. 

DSD has best odds of winning as will be likely either lead or trail as per either S1 or S2.

Lets see what happens.

Edited April 11 by karrotsishere

[karrotsishere]

Intel is in. 50m off last horse in pack at start makes it tough. Can we please get a new driver in CD.

Still on RB.

[Lightning Blue]

15 minutes ago, karrotsishere said:

Intel is in. 50m off last horse in pack at start makes it tough. Can we please get a new driver in CD.

Still on RB.

nice . yeah Carter pretty experienced now. he could drive them all even better than B.O . Carter was driving Krug well and quite a few others. Have you seen the 'Adore Me' filly go? is really wracking up a few wins for Dalgety's team.

Blair should be driving a few of his own (training/owning) to keep him motivated and attached and not just doing 'driving fees',  nearly all the pro drivers in Nz and Aus have that extra achievement of 'doing their own' which really helps with focus .

What did you think of Jolimont 🥰 ? very nice Sweet Lou horse. Mark had him cruising 💰. Arna D had big team in tonight and she prepares them very well