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mardigras
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I read this on the other channel. 

"Think I'd be frowning as a trainer to if caught 3 and 4 wide, not sure what the horse drew, but sometimes it is the draw and no matter who the rider is, guess the decision to settle and sit or go forward and use the petrol is the key, guess it helped only with a feather weight, one I have a share in got caught 3 wide the trip at invercargill one day, with 59kg from a handy draw, I was muttering a few expletives at the tab TV, but he managed to get up by the skin of his teeth, you don't see many than can do it, over any distance, was put of madam sequoia with a draw of 16, left me abit annoyed, but that's just racing isn't it."

Which is the direct opposite to me. If a barrier is considered by most punters to be a disadvantage, then in all likelihood I will be getting a better price than otherwise. Funny part about that post is the person's own horse had won running wide - and they still thought it was unusual and didn't back a horse due to it. It's a mindset thing. Not helped by NZ jockeys ruining a good mount by wanting to be near the fence.

When I do watch races, I love it when mine is 3 wide. I expect it will have all opportunity to win the race if good enough. Funny old sport. I like betting against the common views of punters. Weight and barriers being my favs due to the price influence on those runners.

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2 hours ago, mardigras said:

I read this on the other channel. 

"Think I'd be frowning as a trainer to if caught 3 and 4 wide, not sure what the horse drew, but sometimes it is the draw and no matter who the rider is, guess the decision to settle and sit or go forward and use the petrol is the key, guess it helped only with a feather weight, one I have a share in got caught 3 wide the trip at invercargill one day, with 59kg from a handy draw, I was muttering a few expletives at the tab TV, but he managed to get up by the skin of his teeth, you don't see many than can do it, over any distance, was put of madam sequoia with a draw of 16, left me abit annoyed, but that's just racing isn't it."

Which is the direct opposite to me. If a barrier is considered by most punters to be a disadvantage, then in all likelihood I will be getting a better price than otherwise. Funny part about that post is the person's own horse had won running wide - and they still thought it was unusual and didn't back a horse due to it. It's a mindset thing. Not helped by NZ jockeys ruining a good mount by wanting to be near the fence.

When I do watch races, I love it when mine is 3 wide. I expect it will have all opportunity to win the race if good enough. Funny old sport. I like betting against the common views of punters. Weight and barriers being my favs due to the price influence on those runners.

I remember asking Chris O'Brien,  many years ago ( when everyone wanted to be in behind the leader on the fence) why he was so often to be found three wide , lobbing along on his own.

He said with a grin ' the shortest way home is the one without a bump '.

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23 minutes ago, Freda said:

I remember asking Chris O'Brien,  many years ago ( when everyone wanted to be in behind the leader on the fence) why he was so often to be found three wide , lobbing along on his own.

He said with a grin ' the shortest way home is the one without a bump '.

I'd agree - and even though I'm not an expert on physiology, my view is that the interruptions caused to a horse when in traffic are not considered by punters when they compare that to a horse running in the open. And you get things like 'add extra for having been 3 wide without cover', as if the extra distance in running is a big factor.

I'd expect the impact on energy reserves, impacts on animal stress and respiratory comfort are difficult to measure and likely negate any impact from covering extra distance (within reason).

From watching a lot of UK races, they don't run like they do in Australasia. They can run a 4 horse field where a runner will be 3 wide the trip. And not give a damn. And not just once or twice. It's frequent, in fact quite usual.

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Yes,  all that and as well, the fear or dislike some horses have for being in cramped quarters is not often considered.  Remember Michael Kinane being vilified by the media and self considered experts for being wide in the Melbourne Cup on Vintage Crop...I think he finished third, but was taken away from traffic because of the fear of injury.

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Long time ago now, but I remember Noel Harris rode a tricky mare for me at Riccarton one day. When  I legged him up I asked what the track was like. She liked looser footing. He said there's a few sticky patches. I said something like you just have to nurse her through those and she doesn't like it if she gets in tight quarters especially once the pressure goes on. That was it. He sat 3 wide without cover the 2000m trip and won well beating a good field of class 4 gallopers at Easter. 33/1.

Edited by curious
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3 hours ago, Freda said:

I remember asking Chris O'Brien,  many years ago ( when everyone wanted to be in behind the leader on the fence) why he was so often to be found three wide , lobbing along on his own.

He said with a grin ' the shortest way home is the one without a bump '.

Sounds like OB. See he's back riding a bit again. 3 rides tomorrow at Cessnock.

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6 hours ago, mardigras said:

Which is the direct opposite to me. If a barrier is considered by most punters to be a disadvantage, then in all likelihood I will be getting a better price than otherwise. Funny part about that post is the person's own horse had won running wide - and they still thought it was unusual and didn't back a horse due to it. It's a mindset thing. Not helped by NZ jockeys ruining a good mount by wanting to be near the fence.

When I do watch races, I love it when mine is 3 wide. I expect it will have all opportunity to win the race if good enough. Funny old sport. I like betting against the common views of punters. Weight and barriers being my favs due to the price influence on those runners.

Agreed, however I will temper that with the Tempo of the race determines the likely outcome far more than any other single factor. 

Watch the sit and sprint racing that is very evident in Victoria again yesterday, doesnt matter where you are in the run if its a walk early & sprint home.

Now compare that to Qld yesterday where they can be 5 wide and still fly home because the speed is always on there.

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there are so many variables ...wide draws more a problem in sprints and/or big fields and/or good tracks than longer journeys and/or slow-heavy tracks. Some horses dont like the 'squeeze' of tight quarters; big, long-striding horses tend to settle better with plenty of galloping room and 'clear air'. Some horses like to give opponents 'the eye' and try harder in a tight finish; others give up quickly when headed. Guess the key is for a trainer to know his/her horses preferences/style and impart that knowledge clearly to the jockey. And for the jockey to give the horse every chance to give its best on the day.

Edited by Maximus
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23 minutes ago, Maximus said:

there are so many variables ...wide draws more a problem in sprints and/or big fields and/or good tracks than longer journeys and/or slow-heavy tracks. Some horses dont like the 'squeeze' of tight quarters; big, long-striding horses tend to settle better with plenty of galloping room and 'clear air'. Some horses like to give opponents 'the eye' and try harder in a tight finish; others give up quickly when headed. Guess the key is for a trainer to know his/her horses preferences/style and impart that knowledge clearly to the jockey. And for the jockey to give the horse every chance to give its best on the day.

Is there a reason you say that wide draws are more a problem in sprints or on good tracks? Statistically, I've  not seen anything that would suggest that.

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19 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Is there a reason you say that wide draws are more a problem in sprints or on good tracks? Statistically, I've  not seen anything that would suggest that.

Interesting. I don't have much difference with track conditions but wider draws a marginal advantage in sprints.

 

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6 minutes ago, Hesi said:

I think the point I have taken out of all of this, yet again, is not doing what most of the mug punters do, therefore increasing your value, especially if you have the data to support it

I suspect the issue is that it has been handed down through generations on the basis of supposedly being logical given the horses drawn wide inevitably are going to cover more ground than the horses drawn further in - in general. So people look at the field and go, no, it's drawn wide, that's too big a hurdle to overcome.

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1 hour ago, mardigras said:

Is there a reason you say that wide draws are more a problem in sprints or on good tracks? Statistically, I've  not seen anything that would suggest that.

yes. In races over 1000-1200m the difference between winning and running (say) a close 5th is a fraction of a second. In the higher grade races especially, luck in the running plays a crucial part. A sprinter capable of very fast sectionals doesnt always get a clear run when needed. Some sprinters prefer to be on or just behind the speed with cover and wait for a gap/run; back markers who draw wide? ...well.they're going back anyway and will benefit from a solid tempo. A front runner with a cosy draw is a better chance if it doesnt have to use up much gas to get to get to the lead.

On fast tracks the really fast horse can 'ping' off the surface better; on slow/heavy going the slightly slower horses who like the give' in the going have more chance   ie the quicker' horses come back to the field

Edited by Maximus
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31 minutes ago, Maximus said:

yes. In races over 1000-1200m the difference between winning and running (say) a close 5th is a fraction of a second. In the higher grade races especially, luck in the running plays a crucial part. A sprinter capable of very fast sectionals doesnt always get a clear run when needed. Some sprinters prefer to be on or just behind the speed with cover and wait for a gap/run; back markers who draw wide? ...well.they're going back anyway and will benefit from a solid tempo. A front runner with a cosy draw is a better chance if it doesnt have to use up much gas to get to get to the lead.

On fast tracks the really fast horse can 'ping' off the surface better; on slow/heavy going the slightly slower horses who like the give' in the going have more chance   ie the quicker' horses come back to the field

I must be missing something. I'm not suggesting there is a difference between a back marker that draws wide and a front runner. I don't believe that the draw makes any discernible difference to either. It doesn't bother me to have a back marker draw the inside, or a front runner draw the widest. I tend to back more horses in such circumstances than the other way around - as those are the most likely to be at odds that are beyond my assessment of chance. Where as the ones supposedly being advantaged by the draw, are far less likely for me to be betting on, for the same reason.

How does a wide draw make a horse actually run slower? I'm just trying to understand why a horse can't run as fast when drawn wide. Does drawing wide make a horse run slower?

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10 minutes ago, mardigras said:

I must be missing something. I'm not suggesting there is a difference between a back marker that draws wide and a front runner. I don't believe that the draw makes any discernible difference to either. It doesn't bother me to have a back marker draw the inside, or a front runner draw the widest. I tend to back more horses in such circumstances than the other way around - as those are the most likely to be at odds that are beyond my assessment of chance. Where as the ones supposedly being advantaged by the draw, are far less likely for me to be betting on, for the same reason.

How does a wide draw make a horse actually run slower? I'm just trying to understand why a horse can't run as fast when drawn wide. Does drawing wide make a horse run slower?

if it has to stay wide throughout it has to travel further doesn't it? If the track plays fair on the day (no bias) a horse covering less ground has the advantage (in theory)

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46 minutes ago, Maximus said:

if it has to stay wide throughout it has to travel further doesn't it? If the track plays fair on the day (no bias) a horse covering less ground has the advantage (in theory)

We'll just have to disagree. Since I disagree that a horse travelling further is necessarily at a disadvantage. There may be odd occasions when a horse travelling wide is disadvantaged relative to the rest. And vice versa. I'm not sure I can pick when those ocassions are going to happen before the race.

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