Hesi Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Does anyone ever bet on the cricket I've been following the game for 50 plus years, so interesting to see some of the odds on offer Pakistan were 77 for 4 today, in a totally unwinnable position, TAB were offering 1.85 on them making 231 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, Hesi said: Does anyone ever bet on the cricket I've been following the game for 50 plus years, so interesting to see some of the odds on offer Pakistan were 77 for 4 today, in a totally unwinnable position, TAB were offering 1.85 on them making 231 Remembering that the 231 wasn't related to them winning, just batting long enough and well enough to reach that score. Looks a pretty shitty bet, but I guess you could have got 1.85 on them not making 231 as well?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 This from this years Big Bash on Betfair so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 40 minutes ago, mardigras said: Remembering that the 231 wasn't related to them winning, just batting long enough and well enough to reach that score. Looks a pretty shitty bet, but I guess you could have got 1.85 on them not making 231 as well?? Yes 1.85 on them not making 231, which if you follow cricket, you will know, that a side that has no chance of winning, tend to fall to bits, especially when they have lost early wickets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Hesi said: Yes 1.85 on them not making 231, which if you follow cricket, you will know, that a side that has no chance of winning, tend to fall to bits, especially when they have lost early wickets. What were the odds on NZ winning at the time? Edited January 6, 2021 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 That option was eventually withdrawn, but went from 1.05 to 1.02 to 1.01 as Pakistan lost wickets. I think at 4 or 5 wickets down they withdrew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I'm assuming then that you put every cent you could find on them not making 231 at the lovely odds. I don't know if they can be relied on to fall apart in test cricket on day 4 to the same extent as they do in 1 day or T20 cricket when they can't win. But test teams would at least try and bat the 4th day and hope for rain to achieve a draw. As it was they were only 45 runs short of 231, with some pretty average batting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Quite the opposite, test cricket is, as it says a 5 day test, and if you look at stats over time, you will see that very little out of the ordinary happens. For example, teams rarely chase down big totals(300 plus) to win in a 4th innings, even though they had the capability to do so Whereas T20 and ODI are hit and miss, mainly because of the lesser number of overs. A team requiring 35 runs in the last 2 overs still have a chance. Pakistan had the firepower to score many more runs, but even if they did, and they made NZ bat again, it would have only been for a small number of runs, and the forecast had no rain in sight, so it was a forlorn situation for Pakistan, and they batted accordingly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 8 hours ago, Hesi said: Quite the opposite, test cricket is, as it says a 5 day test, and if you look at stats over time, you will see that very little out of the ordinary happens. For example, teams rarely chase down big totals(300 plus) to win in a 4th innings, even though they had the capability to do so Whereas T20 and ODI are hit and miss, mainly because of the lesser number of overs. A team requiring 35 runs in the last 2 overs still have a chance. Pakistan had the firepower to score many more runs, but even if they did, and they made NZ bat again, it would have only been for a small number of runs, and the forecast had no rain in sight, so it was a forlorn situation for Pakistan, and they batted accordingly I don't base my betting on match stats, and I don't bet on sports. But I certainly have played club cricket and followed cricket for years. I agree, teams don't tend to chase down scores over 300. But the score presented wasn't a score that had anything to do with winning. It wasn't even a score that anything to do with NZ batting again. It was based on whether they would stay around for what was a very short amount of time. Even at 77-4, they were really only 77-3 from the point of what batting remained (as they had used a night watchman). I'd expect the 231 was based on stats since they have invested in the paddy power betting algorithm. Which uses statistics and betting behaviour from a number of other providers to form the odds on things like sport. It was primarily designed for sport. Yes Pakistan couldn't win the game. I don't recall seeing too many test matches where a side that couldn't win, wouldn't attempt to draw the game. Pakistan were definitely trying to draw the game. You could see that in the rate at which they were scoring. I did look at the odds on betfair when Pakistan were around 7 down. The draw was still around 18 - 20s, and you could still back NZ to win at 1.06. If I am reading your posts correctly, you seem to be saying that if a test side can't win, you might as well lay the draw as well. Is that what you are suggesting? As I say, if it was so obvious, you would have put the house on something so certain. In the scenario being discussed, T20 and one day are not the same from the perspective that there isn't a realistic draw option - so there isn't an option of simply batting until the end of the game and not losing, which is an option in test cricket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Would never bet on T20 or ODI, a lesser team can fire and win, all it takes is one batsmen to put up a big score Test teams rarely bat for 2 days to save a test, which is what Pakistan would have had to do, at best with a short rain delay today, we will see. Yet most test teams are capable of and it happens on regular occasions, of batting for 2 days in the 1st innings. It is the psychological effect that is so apparent in cricket, tests in particular. Pakistan were playing for pride at best. Golf is the same, mental toughness My son loves cricket, and waxes lyrical about Kyle Jamieson being the next best thing in NZ and World cricket. Maybe so, but he has only played 6 tests, and teams and batsmen will work out ways to handle him, so we will see. He has the natural advantage of height(6ft 8 in), but he still has to maintain a consistent line and length to allow the height advantage to come into play. I see for the 3rd test India vs Aus, that Aus are heavily favoured to win 1.48 vs 3.60 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 45 minutes ago, Hesi said: Test teams rarely bat for 2 days to save a test, which is what Pakistan would have had to do, at best with a short rain delay today, we will see Yet most test teams are capable of and it happens on regular occasions, of batting for 2 days in the 1st innings. We'll just have to disagree. The last test before this series, Pakistan after day 3 couldn't win the test. They batted for the remainder (with various delays) against England. They would have been wanting rain on the 5th day - which there was in the forecast at the time for this test. And you never know what might happen on the day with the weather. I don't think 1st test innings and second test innings can be compared. The wicket is likely to be difficult on the 5th day wherever you are. I just think Pakistan is a pretty average team. I'd expect teams bat for shorter periods when under pressure these days compared to last century - likely due to the influence the shorter games have had on batting aggression carrying over into test cricket. But I wouldn't bet on it unless I was betting on test cricket generally. I just don't think 231 was a big target from a betting point of view - even for a side that was likely to capitulate. Heck, they nearly reached it with some awful batting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 I see the TAB withdrew the option this morning of Aus runs scored second innings, 284.5 more or less, both at 1.85. Why would that be Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 53 minutes ago, Hesi said: I see the TAB withdrew the option this morning of Aus runs scored second innings, 284.5 more or less, both at 1.85. Why would that be Don't know - unless since Australia have a first innings lead, then the result could be contrived by way of what the captain decides to do in regards declaring. Would they be likely to declare before scoring 285? Possibly. Would they want the captain to have potentially the controlling decision as to which option won? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 They had the option up last night Unlikely, the 285 will give Aus a lead of 379 runs so I'm picking they will bat on to a 400 plus psychological barrier lead, leaving 10- 15 overs to bowl at India tonight(60 overs still to bowl today with Aus 206 for 4). India can't win, but Aus will want to push for the win as the series is tied 1-1 with 1 to play after this test. They have a good chance as Nathan Lyon's spin becomes very difficult to play on the last day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 India whilst highly unlikely to win, could win. If they get two more wickets quickly, they may only chase 350 or less. If they can't win, help yourself to around 4% interest by laying India off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 Aus could collapse for another 50 runs with Smith now gone, but as you say India chasing 350 runs, even in 4 sessions, won't happen on a worn pitch. TAB should have left the Aus runs scored option open, as they are possibly going to not make the 285 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 22 minutes ago, Hesi said: Aus could collapse for another 50 runs with Smith now gone, but as you say India chasing 350 runs, even in 4 sessions, won't happen on a worn pitch. TAB should have left the Aus runs scored option open, as they are possibly going to not make the 285 I think you needed to take my 4% option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 The $1.85 on Aus to score 285 plus would have been better. As it turns out, it was a little closer than what I thought, only because of the declaration Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 The point I'm making I guess, is that many of the options offered by the TAB are mainly guesswork, a boundary in the 10th over, score when next batsmen is out, how next batsmen out Offer something that cricket followers can analyse a bit and decide whether it is value, such as several options on India total runs in their second innings India won't hit the 400 plus runs needed to win, but they may very well hit 300 plus, so odds for that, 250 plus etc etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, Hesi said: The point I'm making I guess, is that many of the options offered by the TAB are mainly guesswork, a boundary in the 10th over, score when next batsmen is out, how next batsmen out Offer something that cricket followers can analyse a bit and decide whether it is value, such as several options on India total runs in their second innings India won't hit the 400 plus runs needed to win, but they may very well hit 300 plus, so odds for that, 250 plus etc etc I expect that is defined by paddy power sports betting algorithm. Driven by stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 All the more reason they should have those options The stats on a side chasing totals in 4th innings are available, stats on a side achieving totals in a 3rd innings after the opponent has put up a large total in the second innings etc etc. The stats on whether a boundary will be scored in a particular over, will be a lot less defined and be influenced by the state of the game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Hesi said: All the more reason they should have those options The stats on a side chasing totals in 4th innings are available, stats on a side achieving totals in a 3rd innings after the opponent has put up a large total in the second innings etc etc. The stats on whether a boundary will be scored in a particular over, will be a lot less defined and be influenced by the state of the game For sure, but the odds they put up for those odd events, are well in their favour (overall). And you wouldn't expect much betting on them given there random nature. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 What is the point then, cricket followers like me, who have a reasonable understanding of the game, are never going to bet on whether a boundary is scored in a particular over, too random as you say. The HTH option is not value at about 1.07 in favour of Aus. Setting odds on a range of scores that India might get to has more appeal as a bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Quite agree Hesi. Decision making at the TAB doesn't appear to be a strong point however. Just look at the number of abandoned races on US events due to no investment. There has to be overheads in even offering these events - things like ensuring the event is closed when the race starts etc. Even if the costs are minimal, why offer events where there is going to be no investment? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 A few questions then on how it all works How are the various options decided on in the first place, by algorithm or manually How are the initial markets set, again algorithm or manually. I guess this also applies to the initial markets for our NZ racing, which sometimes take so long to get out. Kumara did not come out till Friday, for Sat racing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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