Maximus Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 I am perplexed that bookies rate Catalyst at only $2.00 for the Guineas at Riccarton. Much can happen in the next few weeks. Why so short? dont tell me because he's very very good. Even more perplexing is the $5 for Holymongrel(!)emperor, a rank failure in a maiden on Saturday. Backed as if unbeatable, but got beat by himself as much as the opposition. Are TAB bookies being wooses, or is The Mustelid being unreasonable wanting more attractive odds this far out ....? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 If he wins the Hawkes Bay Guineas in style, then he will drop to $1.80, and probably pay $1.60 on the tote on the day, which is Nov 9, 7 weeks away. That's if he does not get injured, sold or something else happens. So $2 is way too short Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 Comparisons to prior winners at this stage: Madison County: 1 3yo start at Ruakaha Breeders (2nd). r71 Embellish: no 3yo starts. r52 Ugo Foscolo: 1 3yo start at Hastings (1st). r74 Xtravagant: 1 3yo start, flopped in Ruakaha Breeders. r63 Turn Me Loose: 1 3yo start at Hastings (2nd). r65 Atlante: 2 3yo starts in maidens, 3rd and last. r50 Sacred Falls: 1 3yo start at Ruakaha Breeders (1st). r78 Rock 'n' Pop: 1 3yo start - won a Maiden at Riccarton same Monday as today in 2011. r68 Jimmy Choux: 1 3yo start at Wanganui Guineas (2nd). r86 Katie Lee: No 3yo starts. r77 Catalyst: 2 3yo starts, 2 wins, r82. Lots of improvers yet to show their hand. Half of the above showed decent form at 2yo (Jimmy Choux exceptional). Katie Lee I recall they took their time with her after a tough 2yo prep. Something to chew on in the profiles above. Good luck uncovering the likes of Atlante tho! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 You missed the $2 Hesi, $1.90 now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 Draconian 9 weeks to go, horses get injured a lot, have they factored that into the price, better just to wait till race day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 They aren't real bookies. There futures markets are always horrendous overall. It's like they price them based on the horse actually starting which means they profit from all the horses that don't without risking anything. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 A few at longer prices that I thought could improve enough over the next 7 weeks: Aotea Lad, Bella Mente, Callsign Mav, Loire, Folk Dress, Jennifer Eccles, Kali, Scotch, The Fugutive. 4 of those are fillies tho. Kali has heaps of scope and is tough. Its such a pain having to guess / wait and see where they turn up. I took a look at the history to see how dumb it might be to back a filly not knowing what the target is. Fillies running in 2000 guineas: 2009: 3 (1st, 4th, -) 2010: 2 (3rd and 4th) 2011: 1 (2nd) 2012: 1 (2nd) 2013: 0 2014: 2 (4th, -) 2015: 1 (3rd) 2016: 0 2017: 0 2018: 0 Of these 10 fillies that ran, 6 went on to a backup run in the 1000 Guineas. Oasis Rose, Twilight Savings and Serena Miss ran well. Katie Lee and Platinum Witness won and only Remember Howe ran poorly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted September 19, 2019 Author Share Posted September 19, 2019 (edited) great info there from the Piper of Sand. I wouldn't touch Catalyst on the Fixed Odds market here. The only saving grace is that some others are at attractive odds because he is so short. I recall making a killing off La Diosa a few years back though. Edited September 19, 2019 by Maximus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 I thought Kali was a super run there at the weekend with the guineas goggles on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Slaughter ride of the day - it was a shocker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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