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Fixed Odds Markets for Guineas


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I am perplexed that bookies rate Catalyst at only $2.00 for the Guineas at Riccarton. Much can happen in the next few weeks. Why so short? dont tell me because he's very very good.

Even  more perplexing is the $5 for Holymongrel(!)emperor, a rank failure in a maiden on Saturday. Backed as if unbeatable, but got beat by himself as much as the opposition.

Are TAB bookies being wooses, or is The Mustelid being unreasonable wanting more attractive odds this far out ....?


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Comparisons to prior winners at this stage:


Madison County: 1 3yo start at Ruakaha Breeders (2nd). r71

Embellish: no 3yo starts. r52

Ugo Foscolo: 1 3yo start at Hastings (1st). r74

Xtravagant: 1 3yo start, flopped in Ruakaha Breeders. r63

Turn Me Loose: 1 3yo start at Hastings (2nd). r65

Atlante: 2 3yo starts in maidens, 3rd and last. r50

Sacred Falls: 1 3yo start at Ruakaha Breeders (1st). r78

Rock 'n' Pop: 1 3yo start - won a Maiden at Riccarton same Monday as today in 2011. r68

Jimmy Choux: 1 3yo start at Wanganui Guineas (2nd). r86

Katie Lee: No 3yo starts. r77


Catalyst: 2 3yo starts, 2 wins, r82.


Lots of improvers yet to show their hand. Half of the above showed decent form at 2yo (Jimmy Choux exceptional). Katie Lee I recall they took their time with her after a tough 2yo prep.

Something to chew on in the profiles above. Good luck uncovering the likes of Atlante tho!




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A few at longer prices that I thought could improve enough over the next 7 weeks:

Aotea Lad, Bella Mente, Callsign Mav, Loire, Folk Dress, Jennifer Eccles, Kali, Scotch, The Fugutive.

4 of those are fillies tho. Kali has heaps of scope and is tough.

Its such a pain having to guess / wait and see where they turn up. I took a look at the history to see how dumb it might be to back a filly not knowing what the target is.

Fillies running in 2000 guineas:

2009: 3 (1st, 4th, -)

2010: 2 (3rd and 4th)

2011: 1 (2nd)

2012: 1 (2nd)

2013: 0

2014: 2 (4th, -)

2015: 1 (3rd)

2016: 0

2017: 0

2018: 0

Of these 10 fillies that ran, 6 went on to a backup run in the 1000 Guineas. Oasis Rose, Twilight Savings and Serena Miss ran well. Katie Lee and Platinum Witness won and only Remember Howe ran poorly.

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great info there from the Piper of Sand. I wouldn't touch Catalyst  on the Fixed Odds market here. The only saving grace is that some others are at attractive odds because he is so short. I recall making a killing off La Diosa a few years back though.

Edited by Maximus
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