mardigras Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 No. RUNNER TRAINER JOCKEY BR. WEIGHT (KG) 1 HARTNELL JAMES CUMMINGS BRAD RAWILLER 17 58 2 MIRAGE DANCER BUSUTTIN / YOUNG BEN MELHAM 13 56 3 MER DE GLACE HISASHI SHIMIZU DAMIAN LANE 21 55.5 4 MUSTAJEER KRIS LEES DAMIEN OLIVER 16 55.5 5 ROSTROPOVICH HAYES / DABERNIG DWAYNE DUNN 18 55.5 6 FINCHE CHRIS WALLER MICHAEL WALKER 19 54.5 7 GOLD MOUNT IAN WILLIAMS MARK DU PLESSIS 4 54.5 8 RED VERDON ED DUNLOP PAT COSGRAVE 15 54.5 9 ANGEL OF TRUTH GWENDA MARKWELL DEAN YENDALL 14 54 10 BIG DUKE KRIS LEES BRETT PREBBLE 1 54 11 CONSTANTINOPLE HAYES / DABERNIG LUKE NOLEN 7 53 12 MR QUICKIE PHILLIP STOKES JOHN ALLEN 10 53 13 CROWN PROSECUTOR STEPHEN MARSH CRAIG GRYLLS 2 52.5 14 VOW AND DECLARE DANNY O'BRIEN CRAIG WILLIAMS 9 52.5 15 BRIMHAM ROCKS CHRIS WALLER MICHAEL DEE 20 52 16 THE CHOSEN ONE BAKER & FORSMAN STEPHEN BASTER 22 52 17 QAFILA HAYES / DABERNIG CORY PARISH 6 51.5 18 WOLFE WATERHOUSE / BOTT BEAU MERTENS 5 50 19E SOUND MIKE MORONEY JAMES WINKS 8 54 20E NEUFBOSC HAYES / DABERNIG JYE MCNEIL 3 54 21E TRUE SELF WILLIAM MULLINS DECLAN BATES 12 52 22E PRINCE OF ARRAN CHARLIE FELLOWES JAMIE KAH 11 53.5 Will price it up tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 (edited) 1 Hartnell $28-00 2 Mirage Dancer $8-20 3 Mer De Glace $11-20 4 Mustajeer $32-00 5 Rostropovich $29-00 6 Finche $8-10 7 Gold Mount $18-00 8 Red Verdon $36-00 9 Angel of truth $70-00 10 Big Duke $60-00 11 Constantinople $6-90 12 Mr Quickie $11-60 13 Crown Prosecutor $100 14 Vow and Declare $9-80 15 Brimham Rocks $42-00 16 The Chosen One $16-00 17 Qafila $100 18 Wolfe $80-00 Looks a tough race The biggest value for me is with Mirage Dancer and Constantinople and a little value with Gold Mount and Vow and Declare Edited October 16, 2019 by VC! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 Caulfield Cup Betfair mardigras VC 1 HARTNELL 25.00 21.00 28.00 2 MIRAGE DANCER 19.00 14.50 8.20 3 MER DE GLACE 8.80 10.00 11.20 4 MUSTAJEER 11.50 22.00 32.00 5 ROSTROPOVICH 27.00 21.00 29.00 6 FINCHE 7.20 12.00 8.10 7 GOLD MOUNT 26.00 27.00 18.00 8 RED VERDON 50.00 65.00 36.00 9 ANGEL OF TRUTH 100.00 100.00 70.00 10 BIG DUKE 75.00 100.00 60.00 11 CONSTANTINOPLE 10.50 11.00 6.90 12 MR QUICKIE 11.00 8.00 11.60 13 CROWN PROSECUTOR 48.00 40.00 100.00 14 VOW AND DECLARE 11.00 16.50 9.80 15 BRIMHAM ROCKS 44.00 36.00 42.00 16 THE CHOSEN ONE 18.00 13.50 16.00 17 QAFILA 44.00 18.00 100.00 18 WOLFE 20.00 13.00 80.00 % 99.9845 100.1259 100.2411 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LookingForValue Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Out of my comfort zone here but will have a go. Hartnell $29.19 Mirage Dancer $10.13 Mer De Glace $20.99 Mustajeer $13.98 Rostropovich $9.29 Finche $12.93 Gold Mount $21.37 Red Verdon $27.24 Angel Of Truth $100.00 Big Duke $86.00 Constantinople $6.70 Mr Quickie $23.28 Crown Prosecutor $13.59 Vow And Declare $24.91 Brimham Rocks $30.59 The Chosen One $24.51 Qafila $23.52 Wolfe $26.50 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 17, 2019 Author Share Posted October 17, 2019 With betfair price changes to date. Red - early move down. Mr Quickie nearly in to equal fav on bf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 18, 2019 Author Share Posted October 18, 2019 Crown Prosecutor - lame - scratched. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Globederby19 Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Ok guys. I can see your pricing, now let me know " who " you think is value. At this time of year I take an interest in the big TB races apart from my Harness. And I always follow the Jap horses, they seem to be very good normally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 18, 2019 Author Share Posted October 18, 2019 For me Mr Quickie was the best value at time of putting up prices. Now that the value on him has gone, best would be Qafila as a roughie and then The Chosen One and Wolfe for me. Although now with Crown Prosecutor out, Sound if it stays at 130s is very good value to me also. The Japanese horse is very interesting and if runs to what they think over there, should be winning this you would think. Hard to price the runner for me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 I also have Qafila and Wolfe at some value. The other two to consider for me are Gold Mount and Rostropovich. I have some respect for Mer de Glace as well but also find it challenging to price. Not sure that there is any value there. Overall my confidence levels are not high on this and I'll likely pass the race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 19, 2019 Author Share Posted October 19, 2019 On 10/18/2019 at 5:15 PM, mardigras said: The Japanese horse is very interesting and if runs to what they think over there, should be winning this you would think. Hard to price the runner for me. And certainly did. Easy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LookingForValue Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 how good was that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 19, 2019 Author Share Posted October 19, 2019 The race went pretty much to script for me. The top runners went the best. Mr Quickie was quite strong to the line also. Not sure he is a Melbourne Cup horse all the same. Sound went OK. Qafila was not up to the grade for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 The race pretty much went to script for myself as well my top 6 rated horses ran 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th and had Mr Quickie got a crack he would’ve completed the 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LookingForValue Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 After thinking my analysis on Open races wasn't doing so well, I decided to check back on one I haven't done for a while. It looked very promising. This is the one where I used a confidence level on my ratings for each horse. Did Arawa Park analysis on the 2 Open races. Picked the winner of the Staphanos Classic in 2. Had Sweet Treat top rated at $3.80. Missed the other race. I'm going to continue this as well as the B65-B82 ratings I do a little differently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Globederby19 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 On 10/19/2019 at 7:21 PM, LookingForValue said: how good was that? Good enough to give me plenty of dosh for up coming Harness races at that price. Love the Jap horses. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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