mardigras Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Here is some data from Flemington over 2000m. The chart depicts the actual wins versus expected wins based on starters (V Starters), the actual wins versus expected wins based on betfair odds (V Odds) and the Par Score (being that the wins achieved would match the chance (so equals 1). (The chart reflects over 1700 horse starts) There is little to say that the barrier has an impact on results. And without further review of the individual horses chances excluding barrier, it's difficult to say whether the barrier has an influence or not. But what the chart shows is that for the lower barriers, the wins versus expected on odds is below the wins versus expected on starters. Then as you get to the middle barriers, it levels out, and for the wider barriers, the wins versus expected on odds is higher than the wins versus expected on starters. That suggests the punters think the barrier plays a bigger part than it does (without a more thorough investigation around chance excluding barrier draw). That to me is far more important than any barrier. The perceived impact to chance the 'general' punter thinks the barrier has versus the actual impact to chance. You are likely gaining an immediate advantage on price when considering horses drawn wider at Flemington over 2000m. Therefore the wider drawn horses are more likely to result in value once you have assessed the chances. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Docker Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 10:13 AM, Maximus said: Agree. Show Gate was Sunline before we knew what a Sunline could do. And I don't think Sunline would've stayed 2 miles anyway! Lance's point is really about Sunline's class and versatility is fine, but 2 miles? Don't think so. If the McKees wanted to to, they could've tried a Melbourne Cup and never did - quite sensibly. Show Gate, on the other hand, in the stable of a quirky character who was hardly a Waller/Baker/Forsman whoever true professional, did legendary things, sometimes when only half-ready. (I feel the next horse racing movie comin' on! If they can make one about Seabiscuit, and a TV series about Kiwi, they can - and should - make one about her. Comparing 2 horses from different errors is subjective but to Lance’s comment about Sunline was race specific (Auckland Cup). I have read, listen and noted that the 2 miles at Ellerslie is less taxing than Trentham or Riccarton. Front runners like Jan’s Beau, Kotare Chief and that Aussie horse Cooksley rode and decided to go to front at the 1200, could dominate. I think his point was Ellerslie was a course Sunline could have got away with a 2-mile win. As for Show Gate. Not sure if she won at group one in Aussie and I can only think of 3 times she may have won at group one in the north island, though she did race against a stellar group of race horses and beat them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Docker Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 sorry - different eras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Good point re Auckland Cup being a race by some very good milers/middle distance horse, not true stayers. When was the current international Group system of classification implemented? I have a funny feeling it was mid-70s after Show Gate retired. I don't think she ever raced outside NZ. Tremendous run by Melody Belle yesterday. Lord only knows why they didn't want the $5m Cox Plate in her cabinet/CV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 (edited) 10 hours ago, Hesi said: Everyone bangs on about her triple crown and no one else has done it. But get things in perspective, the quality of G1 racing in NZ has slipped horribly in the last 20 years Others that have tried and failed, usually came up against at least half a dozen genuine G1 NZ horses It's all hype/PR to position the HB Spring Carnival as important/prestigious early in the new season - fully understandable as we come out of the winter when tracks are often awful and/or unreliable and/or dangerous. MB is truly a star of the turf. I do wish they had aimed her at the Cox Plate, she'd have handled that saucer-shaped track better than most, has tactical speed and an explosive sprint, with a heart to match. Her run yesterday was phenomenal - how she even grabbed 2nd when looking like finishing 4th is impressive. Maybe they should get a tad more ambitious and take her to Ascot next year. Edited November 10, 2019 by Maximus 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 36 minutes ago, Maximus said: Good point re Auckland Cup being a race by some very good milers/middle distance horse, not true stayers. When was the current international Group system of classification implemented? I have a funny feeling it was mid-70s after Show Gate retired. I don't think she ever raced outside NZ. Tremendous run by Melody Belle yesterday. Lord only knows why they didn't want the $5m Cox Plate in her cabinet/CV. One obstacle, a very big one, a horse called Lys Gracieux Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 59 minutes ago, Hesi said: One obstacle, a very big one, a horse called Lys Gracieux didnt stop them taking on the CP with a horse that had a much inferior record to MB and a racing style not especially suited to that tight turning track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, Maximus said: didnt stop them taking on the CP with a horse that had a much inferior record to MB and a racing style not especially suited to that tight turning track. Stop it ya killing me This much inferior horse you speak of beat Melody Belle last time they met and this myth you go on about him not suited to the track is just that, he railed like a farkin greyhound Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 1 hour ago, VC! said: Stop it ya killing me This much inferior horse you speak of beat Melody Belle last time they met and this myth you go on about him not suited to the track is just that, he railed like a farkin greyhound Didn't say he was an inferior horse, said he had an inferior record. Group 1 record: MB 10 TAS 0. He may well become a superstar next year. She is already worthy of taking on the best international gallopers (imho). Instead, they took the easier path ...would love to see her against the best in the northern hemisphere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 53 minutes ago, Maximus said: Didn't say he was an inferior horse, said he had an inferior record. Group 1 record: MB 10 TAS 0. He may well become a superstar next year. She is already worthy of taking on the best international gallopers (imho). Instead, they took the easier path ...would love to see her against the best in the northern hemisphere Going into Saturday’s McKinnon Melody Belle 10 Group 1s Magic Wand 0 group1s Magic Wand 4th in the CP TAS 3rd Melody Belle is top class hopefully we get to see both Te Akau horses in the Queen Elizabeth in the Autumn......I feel Richards will seperate them, however come the Spring both should be in the Cox Plate and along with Hopefully Catalyst would be the clash all Kiwi’s would be hanging out for with no doubt all varied opinions 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 But the track data showed Melody Belle had covered 29m more in the race and got within a length, which even allowing for Magic Wand being so far from home and on the short turnaround, suggests the Kiwi mare is at least as good as the winner if not better. How do they get this, are the horses now carrying GPS trackers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 58 minutes ago, Hesi said: But the track data showed Melody Belle had covered 29m more in the race and got within a length, which even allowing for Magic Wand being so far from home and on the short turnaround, suggests the Kiwi mare is at least as good as the winner if not better. How do they get this, are the horses now carrying GPS trackers? I wouldn't take account of covering extra ground. It's like wide without cover. It likely has zero to little impact on the outcome unless it is covered during the period of the race where the horse is running at full speed. It could even be beneficial. But I'd love to know where the extra 29m supposedly came from. Did she run the entire race 7m wider than Magic Wand? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 (edited) This doesn't seem to suggest an extra 29m. In fact, I'd suggest there may be an issue with the set of data. I doubt every horse ran 27+ metres further than the race distance. https://www.racing.com/form/2019-11-09/flemington/race/8 It looks to me like they use the distance markers for some comparison. With the rail out 9m, the distance markers will be wrong although the distance of the race should be accurate. If it isn't based on GPS, I would trust a single number. Edited November 10, 2019 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LookingForValue Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Melody Belle ran the fastest over all sectionals, coming from 14th at the 400m, 7th at the 200m to get within 1 length of Magic Wand. If that isn't a performance I don't know what is. https://www.racingandsports.com/horse-racing-results/australia/flemington/2019-11-09/R8 Pos Horse 1800m 1600m 1400m 1200m 1000m 800m 600m 400m 200m 1st MAGIC WANDT : A P O'BRIEN J : RYAN MOORE 1:47.612nd 1:36.093rd 1:23.893rd 1:11.333rd 0:58.843rd 0:46.743rd 0:34.833rd 0:23.333rd 0:11.912nd 2nd MELODY BELLET : JAMIE RICHARDS J : OPIE BOSSON 1:46.9714th 1:35.0314th 1:22.6714th 1:10.0314th 0:57.4214th 0:45.4514th 0:33.6514th 0:22.4714th 0:11.427th 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 I'd agree with that LFV. Very good performance. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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