Hesi Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Conclusive and impressive win yesterday, and will go to either the Matriarch or McKinnon, if anything, might just be on a plane back home yet. 10 G1's, but yesterday it was The best mares on offer at equal weights The wet track may have played against some of her rivals, not MB, she relished it So even with the G1 status and the manner of her win, can you call her a champion yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 Up against some of the hardened G1 horses of Aus racing, with a few imports thrown in, in the McKinnon. She wins this, and she would have to go down amongst the best we have produced 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Docker Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 I remember a comment from Lance O'Sullivan years past about Sunline as the only horse he thought that could win the Railway and Auckland Cup, in the same year. Melody Belle may surpass Sunline in group 1's (which I hope she does) but as yet, she does not strike fear in her opposition across the ditch which Sunline did when the McKee's decided to nominated her. To be mentioned in the same breath is testament to her ability and with a win this weekend will stamp not only her class but also underline the ability of her trainer to recognise and maximise the best from a top-class mare during her racing career and beyond. Smart man. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that you could have Melody Belle Te Akau Shark and Catalyst In next years Cox Plate Futures betting has all 3 fairly high in the market 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Her preparation this year has been impeccable, timed to the minute for each step up in class without overreaching for the lesser goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LookingForValue Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LookingForValue Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 51 minutes ago, Maximus said: Two days after finishing 2nd to Good Lord over 2 miles she broke the NZ record over 2400 m, 2,26.1 with top weight 57 kg on three legs, as she had again gone amiss 1000 m from home, her last race. i saw the race, she wouldn't give up and pure guts to win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Saturday will be an interesting day with Melody Belle racing in the Mackinnon Stakes (2000m). I have priced her on top but at $3.60 betfair currently, too short for me (I have her at $4.20). I like the price of Debt Agent as things stand. And also Fifty Stars as well. Maybe when Jye walks the track Saturday morning, he can tell us where the best place to be is. I think this is a tougher race than her first day win so if she wins this as well, she will have endorsed her quality further. Will also be interesting to see if Magic Wand backs up for her 3rd start in 2 weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 Any of those male horses at the top of their game can beat her, so I will sit on the fence and say top 5 finish. Way too short at $2.80 now Only the very best horses win G1's in Aus in a row. That was one hell of a run in the Empire Rose, the ground she made up, to easily run past Aristia, was Winx like, Can't do that every week.......unless you are Winx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 I have her on top at $3.50. The boys shouldn't be able to beat her and if she improves another notch ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ngakonui grass Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 There will always be a section of the racing community who will never consider her to be a champion,no matter what she wins. Some just don't like the Te Akau connection and thats that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ngakonui grass Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 I;m not convinced that even if she wins the LKS that people will acknowlege her accomplishment. It,imo is a pretty ordinary field,3 9 year olds,a couple of 8 year olds,doesn't seem to me to be many horses in there that will go on with it. However she can only beat whats put in front of her . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 (edited) 13 minutes ago, ngakonui grass said: I;m not convinced that even if she wins the LKS that people will acknowlege her accomplishment. It,imo is a pretty ordinary field,3 9 year olds,a couple of 8 year olds,doesn't seem to me to be many horses in there that will go on with it. However she can only beat whats put in front of her . Is lacking overall quality for sure. I think the move to this Saturday was expected to improve the quality. But it hasn't worked this year. I think she will be the likely winner and good on her if she does. Edited November 8, 2019 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ngakonui grass Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Moody not confident after viewing her in parade ring.Also mentioned another horse that he wasn't happy about,can't think of its name 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 (edited) Pleased with Magic Wand winning. Backed in the Cox and the Cup and done the job to get her G1 today. Melody Belle ran well given the job she was asked to do from the 400m. Edited November 9, 2019 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted November 9, 2019 Author Share Posted November 9, 2019 As good as she is, you can't expect her to make up so much ground against genuine G1 horses. She did it last time, against her own sex, the wide draw again didn't help Probably from that point of view, a below average ride. Would a James Mac have had her a bit closer....who knows Anyway, I think she has proven she is up with the best group of horses in Aus 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 What a huge run. NZ looking good for the Cox plate 2020. On the ride, there was a chance to push up at the risk of being trapped wide. It wasn't a great ride but also a victim of good rides ahead which stretched the field the last 1400 very efficiently giving just a little too much to do from the back. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porky Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Yeah Nah Good Post ! I was born in 66 and my Pops ensured racing was a gimme..(.was shoveling shit, taking daily doubles , remember the old yellow carbon copy tickets. as a 10 y.o) Showgate,Greyway,Balmarino among the best with Sunline ...(have the cap !,... but she could,nt get the HB triple crown)... Melody Belle did ! ...and she should have won the Mckinnon I reckon. ( O.P made what he could of the Barrier Draw) Are the Barrier Draws over there Public?...Can you buy a good one ?...Just Wondering,...Out of curiosity ? LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 The barrier had no effect on her performance imo. (They usually don't) Wasted no energy and was on the fence 200 odd metres from the start. I think she would have been better to have stayed wide the trip based on how she runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted November 9, 2019 Author Share Posted November 9, 2019 Everyone bangs on about her triple crown and no one else has done it. But get things in perspective, the quality of G1 racing in NZ has slipped horribly in the last 20 years Others that have tried and failed, usually came up against at least half a dozen genuine G1 NZ horses Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Here is some data from Flemington over 2000m. The chart depicts the actual wins versus expected wins based on starters (V Starters), the actual wins versus expected wins based on betfair odds (V Odds) and the Par Score (being that the wins achieved would match the chance (so equals 1). (The chart reflects over 1700 horse starts) There is little to say that the barrier has an impact on results. And without further review of the individual horses chances excluding barrier, it's difficult to say whether the barrier has an influence or not. But what the chart shows is that for the lower barriers, the wins versus expected on odds is below the wins versus expected on starters. Then as you get to the middle barriers, it levels out, and for the wider barriers, the wins versus expected on odds is higher than the wins versus expected on starters. That suggests the punters think the barrier plays a bigger part than it does (without a more thorough investigation around chance excluding barrier draw). That to me is far more important than any barrier. The perceived impact to chance the 'general' punter thinks the barrier has versus the actual impact to chance. You are likely gaining an immediate advantage on price when considering horses drawn wider at Flemington over 2000m. Therefore the wider drawn horses are more likely to result in value once you have assessed the chances. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Docker Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 10:13 AM, Maximus said: Agree. Show Gate was Sunline before we knew what a Sunline could do. And I don't think Sunline would've stayed 2 miles anyway! Lance's point is really about Sunline's class and versatility is fine, but 2 miles? Don't think so. If the McKees wanted to to, they could've tried a Melbourne Cup and never did - quite sensibly. Show Gate, on the other hand, in the stable of a quirky character who was hardly a Waller/Baker/Forsman whoever true professional, did legendary things, sometimes when only half-ready. (I feel the next horse racing movie comin' on! If they can make one about Seabiscuit, and a TV series about Kiwi, they can - and should - make one about her. Comparing 2 horses from different errors is subjective but to Lance’s comment about Sunline was race specific (Auckland Cup). I have read, listen and noted that the 2 miles at Ellerslie is less taxing than Trentham or Riccarton. Front runners like Jan’s Beau, Kotare Chief and that Aussie horse Cooksley rode and decided to go to front at the 1200, could dominate. I think his point was Ellerslie was a course Sunline could have got away with a 2-mile win. As for Show Gate. Not sure if she won at group one in Aussie and I can only think of 3 times she may have won at group one in the north island, though she did race against a stellar group of race horses and beat them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Docker Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 sorry - different eras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 36 minutes ago, Maximus said: Good point re Auckland Cup being a race by some very good milers/middle distance horse, not true stayers. When was the current international Group system of classification implemented? I have a funny feeling it was mid-70s after Show Gate retired. I don't think she ever raced outside NZ. Tremendous run by Melody Belle yesterday. Lord only knows why they didn't want the $5m Cox Plate in her cabinet/CV. One obstacle, a very big one, a horse called Lys Gracieux Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, Maximus said: didnt stop them taking on the CP with a horse that had a much inferior record to MB and a racing style not especially suited to that tight turning track. Stop it ya killing me This much inferior horse you speak of beat Melody Belle last time they met and this myth you go on about him not suited to the track is just that, he railed like a farkin greyhound Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.