pete

My mistake it was EIPH.

You're certain she didn't get beaten because EIPH are you?

I don't agree with everything in this article but some interesting thoughts that do confirm what many of us think: Form analysis: how important is weight? David Duffield | Dec 30, 2023 Expert Form Analysis Weight and handicapping have long been a cornerstone of form analysis… but that doesn’t make it a science that’s been settled. Form analysis is an ever-changing beast, as is the market and the way it incorporates different factors. Don Scott popularised the analysis of weight in Australia… now some argue it’s a very minor factor, while for others it’s as important as ever. Here are a few points to consider: Does weight matter at all? A basic understanding of the laws of physics tells you that weight carried has to have some impact on the speed at which a horse can run. But quantifying the impact of weight is the million-dollar challenge for punters. One size doesn’t fit all Racing folklore has it that 1.5 kgs is equal to approximately one length. For example, if Horse A was beaten one length last start by Horse B, but now meets it 1.5 kgs better, then (all things being equal) they will deadheat this time. But this is very much an arbitrary figure that is only a rough guide and not accurate across the board. Race distance, pace, in-running position, horse size and strength, and weight relative to the other horses in the race are just a few of the complicating factors. Higher weights win more often More weight is a negative, yet it is a fact that higher-weighted horses have the highest winning strike-rates and bottom weights have the worst strike-rate of all. The winning strike-rate drops as weight drops, which runs counter to what most punters believe. It obviously comes back to the fact that the better class horses get higher weights. Horses with lower weights are the least likely to win, although again it has to be said that class has a lot to do with this fact. Another key statistic to be aware of is that horses going up in weight (relative to their last start) have a far better strike-rate than horses down in weight. The more compressed weight scale nowadays makes the effect of being top weight less pronounced, so you could say that weight goes part of the way to levelling the playing field, but not enough. Or - in relative terms - handicappers aren't tough enough on the best horses. They should be carrying more weight. Know your limit Weight over the limit is often underplayed, but is more important than simply looking at the actual weight to be carried. By that, I mean 58kg in one race is not necessarily the equivalent of 58kg in another race, because you also need to factor in how many kilograms that is over the limit. Look for improvers Progressive horses in good form are often the best weight carriers, because the increase in kilograms to be carried is more than offset by natural and fitness improvement. So don’t be put off by an improving horse that is also up in weight. A proven winner who is on the up is often a better betting proposition than a horse that is well fancied, due to weight relief.  Limited relief You shouldn’t focus too much on the benefits of an apprentice’s claim unless you are also penalising the jockey for inexperience. You can’t have it both ways – they get an allowance for a reason, so don’t over-estimate the weight relief provided by a claiming apprentice. As a group they basically achieve the same betting returns as senior jockeys. So what to think? We also asked some professionals for their thoughts. Trevor Lawson, Victorian racing analyst It’s one factor among many that goes into pricing a horse. It’s not as big a factor as the old 1 length = 1.5 kgs that Don Scott worked on. Most analysts would use a compressed version of that. Weight is easier to carry over shorter trips. So the compression is more for a 1000m race than a 2400m race.  Aaron Barby, former Champion Bets analyst It would be one of the last things that I consider, and one of the least important factors. I still think it’s a factor, but I focus on sprint racing and I think it becomes more of a factor over longer distances. I think there’s more important things to consider. It’s more just about making small adjustments to a horse’s previous ratings based on whether it goes up or down in weight. Maybe some people consider one kilogram to be equal to one length or something like that. I don’t see it like that at all, I think it’s significantly less. It’s a factor, but I don’t think it’s that important. I think the market probably factors it in for you already. It’s one of those obvious things that everyone can see. I don’t there’s as much importance in it as there is in other things that perhaps aren’t as obvious.  Aaron Barby, former Champion Bets analyst I think it’s starting to go the other way. It used to be a bit overrated but now is becoming a bit underrated. Some people say weight doesn’t matter – which is patently untrue – it does slow them down. We have gravity on planet earth and weight does push down upon a horse! I think the market used to put more focus on it than I did. But now I think it puts less focus – or almost none – on it. It’s perhaps not as important as it is in a strictly physics sense because horses don’t go flat-out throughout a race in most races. When horses are going below top speed, and below cruising speed, then a few extra kilograms won’t be hurting them as much because they’re only bowling along anyway. In the final stage of a race, that’s when it will have an effect… or will have its greatest effect. You do need to discount it a bit from the traditional thinking, but it certainly does have an impact. I see it all the time. Boom Time won the Caulfield Cup because he had no weight. People wrote him off but didn’t pay any attention to the fact he had 52kgs. If he had 58kgs he wouldn’t have won the race. People don’t seem to treat the handicap races properly like that. If horses are down in the weights and have a six or seven-kilogram advantage, that makes a difference. The Cox Plate is a good example in terms of weight-for-age. Typically the best horse wins and better horses have the advantage. But good three-year-olds like Shamus Award win because they get a good run in front. Then are able to sprint away because they’ve got no weight. Savabeel did the same thing a few years earlier. There was a soft run with no pressure and he was able to sprint better than all of them because he had less on his back. It has the most impact in a fast-run race. When a horse is perhaps leading with 60kgs it’s very, very tough to keep going because he’ll be really feeling it. If he’s going flat-out and there’s another horse of much less ability but with seven or eight kilograms less, then he’s really going to feel that.  David Walsh, Billion Dollar Bettor Punters tend to overweight the importance of it. Don Scott was a gambling guru who published his system based around weight. A lot of people incorporated this ideal into their behaviour. He was wrong about it as a feature – it was never as relevant as he thought it was. But once you misdirect the wisdom of the crowd, they’re all over-playing this. As far as I know, this feature doesn’t exist in many markets. You get huge negative coefficients on weight if you include the public. You get huge positive coefficients if you don’t include the public. Weight is relevant to the outcome, but it is over-discounted by the weight of numbers.  Weight: Key Learnings It’s one of many factors, but weight does have an impact! The effect perhaps isn’t as great as the traditional thinking, as summarised by Don Scott. A horse’s performance with certain weight can’t be considered in isolation. Rather it sits alongside factors such as the horse’s fitness level, natural acceleration, the pace the race is run at and the track conditions.

Confirmation bias, a phrase coined by English psychologist Peter Wason, is the tendency of people to favor information that confirms or strengthens their beliefs or values and is difficult to dislodge once affirmed.

Nobody is saying weight carried doesn't make a difference. It does, but rarely in modern times because the handicaps are very compressed. As I said earlier, 5kgs to a 450kg racehorse is inconsequential. As to your horse winning with 5kgs more, who knows? It may have done and it may not have done. It's not really a good example because it's unquantifiable. Your opinion on this is purely subjective.

Can't remember.

Civility is the key Rees.

Are you suffering from memory loss?

Update on Avondale Racecourse New Zealand Thoroughbred Racing (NZTR), in conjunction with Avondale Jockey Club (AJC), would like to issue a joint statement regarding current discussions between the governing body and the racing Club. Representatives from both NZTR and AJC are working together constructively to agree on the future of the Racecourse land, as well as the direction of the Club entity. This week, the parties have become aware of a social media post created by the Avondale Business Association concerning a submission AJC made in 2022 about the future of the Avondale racecourse. In 2022, the AJC made a submission to Auckland Council’s Plan Change 78 - a housing intensification plan change mandated by the Government of the time. The Club’s submission asked the Independent Hearing Panel to consider whether a residential zoning for the land would be more appropriate, and consistent with the mandated purpose of Plan Change 78. The AJC submission acknowledged that NZTR’s Venue Plan process proposed to cease racing at Avondale Racecourse after the 2024/2025 season and as a result, the Club has asked the Independent Hearing Panel to consider whether the better zoning for the land in the future is a residential zone. AJC’s submission forms part of the Plan Change process and is not directly related to NZTR or the Racing Industry Act. NZTR understands that the recent social media post, which focuses on this Plan Change submission, may raise concerns about the future of the Racecourse land amongst participants and the wider public. The current discussions between NZTR and AJC are independent of Auckland Council’s Plan Change 78 process. Importantly, the Club intends to engage with its members and community about the future of the Racecourse at an appropriate time. NZTR would like to thank the Club for its willingness to engage in collaborative discussions to date. Both parties will continue to seek a positive outcome for the Racecourse land and the Club that will benefit New Zealand racing participants and the wider Avondale community.

The point I made is clearly beyond you. No surprises there.

Imperatriz had a heart issue which is far more likely to have contributed to the defeat than the weight. There again, none of us actually know that and we can't ask the horse.

What's your point Einstein?

5kgs to a 450kg horse is equivalent to 1kg on a 90kg human. Are you seriously telling me that an elite human athlete would suffer any significant performance degradation from carrying a 1kg weight in an athletics race?

You're a brave man.

Yes.

The point being that it's virtually impossible to quantify the effect of barrier draws when determining whether a horse is value in a race - we're not talking about whether it will win or not. The obvious take out from this is wide barrier draws are better value - invariably.

Every dog has his day Howie. Gordy worries me not...

As ever you've missed the point completely.

Watch out. The Seagulls are out for revenge after what you did to us in Round 1. Coming into form nicely with a well timed run at the finals. Be afraid.

Don't see this happening at all.

Why don't the inside barriers win every time then?

More explanation. You can see I'm a bit bored today: "He was cantering this morning and a piece of paper flew across and his hind leg hit his near-fore on the tendon," Huffer said yesterday. "The vet scanned it and there is a slight injury that would take three months or so to heal. I called Phil Cunningham [his owner] and we have decided to retire him. He's the best horse I've ever had or ever will have. All we want to do now is what's best for him."

Turns out he didn't actually own the horse. https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/horseracing/11795956/phil-cunningham-cockney-rebel-2000-guineas/

Yeah scratching my head about that too.