Karaka Million - Boys Get Paid Punters Club

[Hesi]

Can someone post their bets as they become known

[mardigras]

R4 #13 Seven Twenty $24,000 at $4.2 (top 3) to return $100,800

R6 31,500 Quinella @$2.6 Aegon/Amarelinha to return $81,900 (note this is a special offer to BGP as fixed odds Q not available to public) - that is interesting in itself

[mardigras]

These may be attracting people - but given the approach, it's not hard to see why the TAB are embracing them.

[curious]

8 hours ago, mardigras said:

R4 #13 Seven Twenty $24,000 at $4.2 (top 3) to return $100,800

R6 31,500 Quinella @$2.6 Aegon/Amarelinha to return $81,900 (note this is a special offer to BGP as fixed odds Q not available to public) - that is interesting in itself

???

[mardigras]

36 minutes ago, curious said:

???

Not sure of your question curious. Apparently the TAB have offered BGP a fixed odds quinella option not available to the public. 

[curious]

27 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Not sure of your question curious. Apparently the TAB have offered BGP a fixed odds quinella option not available to the public. 

Well it doesn't look like great value to me. I also don't get how they can get that bet on anyway when no-one else can.

[mardigras]

Just now, curious said:

Well it doesn't look like great value to me. I also don't get how they can get that bet on anyway when no-one else can.

Looks like shit to me from a price perspective. As for the bet, I guess they have an 'account manager' or similar, asked them, and there you have it.

[curious]

9 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Looks like shit to me from a price perspective. As for the bet, I guess they have an 'account manager' or similar, asked them, and there you have it.

Yeahh if I had to have a bet I'd be seriously on the lay side. See why the TAB would bend over to take it.

 

[mardigras]

Here is what they wrote.

[Hesi]

13 hours ago, mardigras said:

R4 #13 Seven Twenty $24,000 at $4.2 (top 3) to return $100,800

R6 31,500 Quinella @$2.6 Aegon/Amarelinha to return $81,900 (note this is a special offer to BGP as fixed odds Q not available to public) - that is interesting in itself

Ta

Does anyone know what their total pool is approx, you would expect to see some fairly large bets in the first 2 races

[mardigras]

2 hours ago, Hesi said:

Ta

Does anyone know what their total pool is approx, you would expect to see some fairly large bets in the first 2 races

Currently $150k I think with $55k of that already spent.

Edited January 21, 2021 by mardigras

[Mardy]

Balance is now at $170k with around an hour left. I think last year they had around $250k to spend,so i wonder with an hour left how close to that they will get?. I've had a go the last couple of years and have done so again...i'm not a massive punter by any means but tomorrow,i guess i'll feel like one for a few hours lol.

[London Trader]

On 1/22/2021 at 7:11 AM, curious said:

Well it doesn't look like great value to me. I also don't get how they can get that bet on anyway when no-one else can.

What price did it pay on the tote?

[Mardy]

19 minutes ago, London Trader said:

What price did it pay on the tote?

Think it paid under $2.

[mardigras]

1 hour ago, London Trader said:

What price did it pay on the tote?

Is the tote a measure of value? And how did they go overall?

Edited January 23, 2021 by mardigras

[Tonkatime]

1 hour ago, barryb said:

Did you make any money Mardy?

I think the return was $96 for $100 share. They had $76K on Amarelina in the last. 

[Hesi]

Being wise after the event, but they were never going to make a big profit wagering the way they did.  

Surely with some of the faves being hammered  the way they were, an option would have been a $100,000 multi, for a $400,000 collect.  Still leaves $100K to play with

Levante to win @ 1.55

Entriviere to win @1.90

Aegon to place @ 1.35 You could never have backed Aegon and Amarehlina to win with any confidence, both good horses and the best run/ride got the win

[mardigras]

On 1/21/2021 at 9:10 PM, mardigras said:

R4 #13 Seven Twenty $24,000 at $4.2 (top 3) to return $100,800

R6 31,500 Quinella @$2.6 Aegon/Amarelinha to return $81,900 (note this is a special offer to BGP as fixed odds Q not available to public) - that is interesting in itself

I did find it interesting that the Quinella pool on this race was close to $40k higher than any other quinella pool at Ellerslie that day. Close to double the size of the other races (including the 2yo million race). Yet the win pool was the same as for the 2yo race, and only slightly higher than for the other races.

Now if one was to conjecture that the TAB laid off $31.5k of that quinella bet into their own pool, they then are able to take the winnings from the pool, the commission from their own bet, in order to offset at least, the potential losses in a market where there was no other investment (since the fixed odds market was available to the public).

Funnily enough, if they did put $31.5k into that tote quinella pool, the dividend without that theoretical investment would have been $3.80. It seems some think the $2.6 fixed was value. Certainly that's their opinion. But not mine. 

So what we have is a pool that is nearly double the highest quinella pool of all the other races. A race where it is known that the TAB took a fixed odds quinella bet (where there were no other fixed odds bets placed into that market for them to manage their overall risk). I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see them laying off their bet in the hope that the tote dividend exceeded or got close to the odds offered. If they did indeed lay off the bet onto the tote, If the tote odds had reached $2.40, they would have made a guaranteed profit on the 'bet'. 

Of course they didn't do that - did they?

 

[Hesi]

So that would mean, every other quinella punter who took Aegon/Amarehlina subsidised the $2.60 FO quinella offered exclusively to BGP, to the tune of 1.70 dividend versus a potential 3.80 dividend.

Also all the talk about how good BGP is for the industry, and in terms of interest with racing, I'm not disputing, but because all their bets were FO, and because they basically came out even, the net financial wagering gain to the industry was zero. 

If it was all on the tote, then 20% approx of $200K, would have been $40K

[mardigras]

30 minutes ago, Hesi said:

So that would mean, every other quinella punter who took Aegon/Amarehlina subsidised the $2.60 FO quinella offered exclusively to BGP, to the tune of 1.70 dividend versus a potential 3.80 dividend.

Also all the talk about how good BGP is for the industry, and in terms of interest with racing, I'm not disputing, but because all their bets were FO, and because they basically came out even, the net financial wagering gain to the industry was zero. 

If it was all on the tote, then 20% approx of $200K, would have been $40K

If the TAB did that, which I think is likely (as to how much of the total, not sure). But on that basis, yes the TAB bastardised the quinella dividend for the tote punters. In saying that, if the quinella had been a different result, the resulting dividend would have been better for those tote punters.

Given the TAB has offered the BGP punters that withdraw to their TAB account, a $25 bonus bet, effectively that will likely mean there was no profit at all from the BGP direct bets that day to the TAB. Some of the bonus bets will return a dividend, those that don't were the TABs money anyway.

Although that would be caveated on the basis that the TAB did put say $31,500 on that quinella, then the resulting payout back to themselves offsets the lack of revenue directly from BGP, so if they laid off the bet, then they would have resulted in revenue for the TAB based on all the related activity. As instead of returning 4c in the $ to themselves (less bonus bets), they would have offset that by any profits made from laying the bet off. 

If they laid the entire bet off, they would be up around $35k from the BGP related activity (exclusive of the bonus bet offers).

[mardigras]

Have been reading about this on the basis of a lack of transparency in the odds. That's nonsense. If the TAB did place bets into the tote market, they didn't do it at the end, it would have been drip fed in. The odds 10 minutes out on that outcome were lower than they were at close. And the tote is never transparent since a punters bet is never reflected in the odds presented when they bet.

And the other part of this is the supposed odds advantage to BGP. That's speculation. How was the TAB to know what the punter related chance would be on the event? What would they be saying if BGP had been given $1.60 and then the final dividend was $1.70. (which happens often with other fixed odds options).

There is no issue with the TAB being able to do this in general imo. As for the chance of the quinella occurring, another TABs effective chance on the outcome based on punter betting was between 37.5 and 39% (true chance related odds of around $2.50 - $2.70). Even on NZ TAB, the chance of the quinella based on the tote betting was less than 50%.

[Mardy]

On 1/23/2021 at 9:10 PM, barryb said:

Did you make any money Mardy?

Sorry Baz,just seen your post. The final payout was $96 which the  TAB topped up too $100 for those that had it deposited to their accounts. So allowing for the $7 ticketing fee,i guess  you could say that i lost $7. Would of been a lot worse if they didn't get that quinella in the last race.