Ashburton Monday

[Addington]

Love the racing but you can usually  identify  a few non triers who don't want to be  rehandicaped for  Cup week. Worked for me in the past so no bets for me

[karrotsishere]

Im looking forward to the meeting. Quite like Pembroke Playboy if he can get the trail behind Classie B or even try hold the lead. As its over shorter distance 2400. Last time he was in the trial & Fixer lead & Self A parked. Pembroke P won up the passing lane.

And I like Majestic Man in the feature trot.

Interesting re non triers re Cup Week. Yes could see peeps preferring to get 2nd over 1st lol there. 

No I won't be betting either. Think will wait til Cup Day for me to have a fun bet 😄

[Double R]

42 minutes ago, Addington said:

Love the racing but you can usually  identify  a few non triers who don't want to be  rehandicaped for  Cup week. Worked for me in the past so no bets for me

Hi Addi.

I am not sure what you mean about not wanting to be rehandicapped. All the major races these days are free for alls, with no handicapping.

Cheers.

Robert.

[Addington]

6 minutes ago, Double R said:

I am not sure what you mean about not wanting to be rehandicapped

Horses that win on Monday, especially trotters ,will be in a higher grade during Cup week.  Just my observations.

Edited October 22, 2021 by Addington

[Double R]

8 minutes ago, Addington said:

Horses that win on Monday, especially trotters ,will be in a higher grade during Cup week.  Just my observations.

Okay. I thought you were referring to open class racing.

If you can identify the ones that are not "trying", doesn't that make it easier for you sort out winners?

[karrotsishere]

See at 1st thought Addy was Unhinged. But not sure now. Starting to wonder if its Davis or Galah ... 

@Happy Sunrise be happy if it is Mr Galah. 

Anyway if any of the above 3 posters they would ALL make a great addition here. BUT not sure who, so will just leave it at that. 

Get what you mean Addy, re on the odd occasion a trainer or perhaps connections may prefer getting 2nd, and avoiding getting a jump up in ratings/handicaps. 

Be interesting to see ALL the new updates they have made from the brain-storm meetings & if any further changes to ratings are made or not over & above the latest.

Noted that the Major race dates are out soon. Was going to put this on my Karrots midweekly edition, if its out by then. 

"By 31 October the racing programme for all Group, Feature and Country Cups through until 31 December 2022 will be published".

[Double R]

Get what you mean Addy, re on the odd occasion a trainer or perhaps connections may prefer getting 2nd, and avoiding getting a jump up in ratings/handicaps

Racing is too hard, and also expensive, to be playing around with horses, in the hope of a bigger prize down the track. Just like in a life situation, you have got to take every opportunity that comes, as the one you miss out on now, will be one you will never get back. Racing has  many variables, and sometimes when your horse is spot on, it can be impeded or just not be good enough.

Just my thoughts after 48 years in the sport.

Cheers.

Robert.

 

[karrotsishere]

Absolutely agree Double R with you thru & thru.

Have just heard the saying “the horse may need the run” or “will be driven quietly”. “There is always next week”.

Maybe that is a better way to put it.

Someone was saying they heard trainers joking saying gee is 2nd going to be the new 1st, but that was a couple years ago, when think handicap system was slightly different. Its been amended slightly now.

For me I want Sweetie to be put in every race. Every race try to win. But that is just me. I think well don’t know what will happen next week, horse could be sick or anything.

But everyone is different and sees things differently.

[Double R]

4 minutes ago, karrotsishere said:

Absolutely agree Double R with you thru & thru.

Have just heard the saying “the horse may need the run” or “will be driven quietly”. “There is always next week”.

Maybe that is a better way to put it.

Someone was saying they heard trainers joking saying gee is 2nd going to be the new 1st, but that was a couple years ago, when think handicap system was slightly different. Its been amended slightly now.

For me I want Sweetie to be put in every race. Every race try to win. But that is just me. I think well don’t know what will happen next week, horse could be sick or anything.

But everyone is different and sees things differently.

I agree with you too Karrots.

We do all see it differently, and that is what accepting the variables is all about. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, and creating a scenario after a future result is what some people like to do, and everyone has the right to their own opinions.

Cheers.

Robert.

[karrotsishere]

Yip & Im too competitive too. To want to bother waiting for future race. That may not even happen.

Also heard these terms too,

‘Dont want a gut buster”

“This is our main goal”

Here is a story involving Poster Galah & Poster Karrots this year. Karrots had started the thread on another site called Easter Cup Team Karrots others Verse All Stars/Cullen Gamms

Karrots was rooting for team others while Gamms (Lightning) was rooting for Team All Stars. Mainly because Karrots doesn't like stable driving from any stable, and Gamms love it. So we just had fun with it. 

Karrots was saying no handing up lead. Team others, keep the marking peg line its a MUST. As they were starting off front marks. Had advantage. 

Williamson in Easter Cup chose to hand up lead on Pembroke Playboy after reaching lead easy, he said afterwards it was due to the distance & something along the lines of the horse wasn’t ready or something like that & that the Cup was his main goal or something similar.

Galah & I were disappointed in him handing the lead, not from a betting perspective, we didn’t bet, but we thought that was potentially his along with TEAM others best chance as they had the handicap head start on Self Assured, think Spankem maybe Amazing Dream. Anyway it was an All Star trifecta.

Anyway next start Williamson said he had heard there was talk about that he should of kept the lead. 

So next start he was planning to hold the lead. He had to work a bit this time to get lead oppose the Easter Cup from a mobile as this time they were starting from even pegs and he had drawn maybe 6 or 7. 

The horse ran well in lead, finished a close 3rd. Got nabbed close to line. Was a super run. 

By no means was he going in NOT trying to win in the Easter Cup. We never said that, BUT we did just stated our disappointment in not holding lead. Think he then ended up 3 back on rail or maybe 4 back on rail after All stars stable driving. PP got out late to finish an unlucky running on 4th.

Edited October 22, 2021 by karrotsishere

[Happy Sunrise]

2 hours ago, karrotsishere said:

@Happy Sunrise be happy if it is Mr Galah.

He needs to get out more so it would be nice if he turned up here.

As for Monday, I am waiting to see if Self Assured jumps inwards at the beginning of the race. With so few on the front line they will have a bit of space and Classie Brigade will be quick enough away but I still worry with a full front line in the NZ Cup that he may clean up the horse inside him.

[Lightning Blue]

1 hour ago, Happy Sunrise said:

but I still worry with a full front line in the NZ Cup that he may clean up the horse inside him.

Don't worry. This horse has one of the most skilled horsemen ever to sit in the sulky to steer him. I would of thought was the leading Group 1 trainer ever in Nz as well, but there is surprisingly someone ahead of him.

The Allstars people or lately Purdon/Cullen combo would be the foremost in the country at educating standing starts for their horses. The Cup stats don't lie.

Auckland Cup = 6 out of 6 wins, since resuming the 3200m stand in 2015 , for their horses.

 Nz Cup = 6 out of 7 wins since 2014, ( beaten a head 2015 by ARDEN ROONEY who they probably did the education with to get it away from the stand as well )

 and several placegetters too, including the Trifecta last year. Standing Start = No Problem.

[Happy Sunrise]

53 minutes ago, Lightning Blue said:

including the Trifecta last year. Standing Start = No Problem.

Mark Purdon is all class indeed but remember last year was a mobile start.

[Addington]

6 hours ago, Double R said:

If you can identify the ones that are not "trying", doesn't that make it easier for you sort out winners?

Yes, but only at a later date. To clarify, there may be horses just having a run so to speak. Some  legitimately, others I cant be sure about until i watch the event.

Edited October 23, 2021 by Addington

[Double R]

5 minutes ago, Addington said:

Yes, but only at a later date

What I meant was, you would know which ones to bet on in the races you consider others aren't "trying" in.

Can you share which ones on Monday at Ashburton, that you would consider not worth backing, as they are being set for bigger races?

[karrotsishere]

3 hours ago, Happy Sunrise said:

He needs to get out more so it would be nice if he turned up here.

Hehehe. He's the BEST!

13 minutes ago, Addington said:

 others I cant be sure about until i watch the event.

Like this? With the curtain aye @Happy Sunrise 

4 minutes ago, Double R said:

What I meant was, you would know which ones to bet on in the races you consider others aren't "trying" in.

Can you share which ones on Monday at Ashburton, that you would consider not worth backing, as they are being set for bigger races?

I think you will find Double R that Addy means that AFTER not prior he has watched the replays of the races many times, & on slow, rewind, fast forward. He will come up with his analysis on who he believes was PERCEIVED to maybe not be trying as hard as could or something. 

Lets wait BET he will see something that most of us missed. He never misses a BEAT.

[Double R]

2 minutes ago, karrotsishere said:

Hehehe. He's the BEST!

Like this? With the curtain aye @Happy Sunrise 

I think you will find Double R that Addy means that AFTER not prior he has watched the replays of the races many times, & on slow, rewind, fast forward. He will come up with his analysis on who he believes was PERCEIVED to maybe not be trying as hard as could or something. 

Lets wait BET he will see something that most of us missed. He never misses a BEAT.

Yep Karrot.

The word perceived is a good word. As I said before, no one would be wanting to hold their horse back intentionally, as luck in the running has a lot to do with results in general.

We all have our ways to analyse races, and if that is what Addy does, and gets the results, then good on him. Others would get the same result by understanding how luck in the running, and a driver decisions, whether, the correct, or incorrect ones, will determine the final result.

 

[karrotsishere]

7 minutes ago, Double R said:

Yep Karrot.

The word perceived is a good word. As I said before, no one would be wanting to hold their horse back intentionally, as luck in the running has a lot to do with results in general.

We all have our ways to analyse races, and if that is what Addy does, and gets the results, then good on him. Others would get the same result by understanding how luck in the running, and a driver decisions, whether, the correct, or incorrect ones, will determine the final result.

Yip Addy btw, if 2nd time round Iv got who it is, then he is a VERY respectful poster. Will present his view with evidence or with reasoning & will debate the point. If someone offers up a different view. BUT he never gets personal nor name calls nor gets mad or angry nor takes it personally. Just calls it as he sees it. 

Initiates good debate & things to discuss. Is like you and me, just passionate and a hobby for us, hence we love chatting about racing and a regular poster. So if it is him, think Race Place is lucky to have him come onboard. Same too with Royal Nod, another good poster & respectful who loves to talk about horse breeding sires etc. 

Yip he is very good to at giving his point too re drivers decisions lol. 

Edited October 23, 2021 by karrotsishere

[karrotsishere]

Btw too, Iv debated too with Addy before disagreed with him. Then on another occasion agreed with him. Its just how us humans are. Some things we like the same things and agree on and others we don't. Same with Lightning, 1 of us likes stable driving the other doesn't. Im trying to think have I disagreed with Mike, hmm only that he still owes me a story on the horse personality thread, BUT guessing he is super busy atm with work etc. And I remember with Royal Nod I was saying something about Miki that I got wrong and he came and corrected me lol. 

I think you and I Double R see this slightly different. Very slightly, BUT thats fine, & next topic we will likely agree on. 

But the good thing here I think is that it doesn't turn toxic and peeps can just move on, without getting silly and not take things personally. And its good to step up and voice your thoughts and have a say. That is what this forum is for I think right 😄

Edited October 23, 2021 by karrotsishere

[Happy Sunrise]

36 minutes ago, karrotsishere said:

Hehehe. He's the BEST!

Just don't tell him that.

Manawatu is Tuesday night so the curtains are undoubtedly pulled as I type.

 

[karrotsishere]

26 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said:

Just don't tell him that.

Manawatu is Tuesday night so the curtains are undoubtedly pulled as I type.

Yes the curtains will be firmly closed for Mana, for race analysis reviewing 🤣 Because I just asked my wife and she said that Im wrong lol. But I am going to post anyway. Because this is what I saw 👀

The challenge has been set.

Addy to find us something that we may have missed at Ashburton on Monday.  After the days racing. Ohhhh the pressure is on Addy. Will there be something .... will there not .... 👀 

Edited October 23, 2021 by karrotsishere

[Happy Sunrise]

8 hours ago, Addington said:

Love the racing but you can usually  identify  a few non triers who don't want to be  rehandicaped for  Cup week. Worked for me in the past so no bets for me

I would think the likes of Muscle Mountain may not be taxed too much in his first run back from that draw. Chances of winning do not reflect the FF offering.

Looking at the programme for Cup Day, I can't really see any races that would be affected by a win on Monday.

There is a Maiden 46-50 pace for 25 000 so maybe Vincent Vega in Race 1? But this race will have the fringe (non winner) Futurity runners in it and sometimes it is a more targeted race for them than the Friday. Who is going to beat Romeo Shard, Slip the Hundy, Socrates etc on the Friday who have all won a couple of races. Lockart Shard is MR50 so could be targeted at this race.

The Show Day Futurity is 30 000 in comparison and I thought last year it was too much for some backing up from Tuesday to a gut busting 2600 on Friday. Romeo Shard went 3.10 on Thursday night and they will easily run this again, You can write a few off if they back up.

Kaikoura next week will need to be watched more closely for horses who could be affected by a win.

Overall though, I think trainers and horses take a win when they can get it. The crap that happens these days is the likes of Rachel Daytom first up for Matt Purvis and backed in from 5.50 to 2.90FF. Have they cashed out to distract punters? Have they set it up for another runner so will need to watch the FF or tote closer to start time? Who would know with 3 stable runners in the same race. Consequence for me? I won't bet in that race.

 

[Double R]

14 hours ago, Happy Sunrise said:

I would think the likes of Muscle Mountain may not be taxed too much in his first run back from that draw. Chances of winning do not reflect the FF offering.

Looking at the programme for Cup Day, I can't really see any races that would be affected by a win on Monday.

There is a Maiden 46-50 pace for 25 000 so maybe Vincent Vega in Race 1? But this race will have the fringe (non winner) Futurity runners in it and sometimes it is a more targeted race for them than the Friday. Who is going to beat Romeo Shard, Slip the Hundy, Socrates etc on the Friday who have all won a couple of races. Lockart Shard is MR50 so could be targeted at this race.

The Show Day Futurity is 30 000 in comparison and I thought last year it was too much for some backing up from Tuesday to a gut busting 2600 on Friday. Romeo Shard went 3.10 on Thursday night and they will easily run this again, You can write a few off if they back up.

Kaikoura next week will need to be watched more closely for horses who could be affected by a win.

Overall though, I think trainers and horses take a win when they can get it. The crap that happens these days is the likes of Rachel Daytom first up for Matt Purvis and backed in from 5.50 to 2.90FF. Have they cashed out to distract punters? Have they set it up for another runner so will need to watch the FF or tote closer to start time? Who would know with 3 stable runners in the same race. Consequence for me? I won't bet in that race.

 

Hi Happy,

You understand how it works Happy. If you are paying anything from $50 to $100 a day to have your horse trained, in general, it is not realistic to think that horses are tinkered around to get a few thousand extra in a couple weeks time. As Karrots said, it can get sick or injured in the meantime. All horses can have targets, some are big, and some are small, based on abilities. Most trainers will give you an honest assessment of your horses ability, and will aim them to get the best possible result for you. Many times that will be nothing, through all sorts of variables that are associated with a horse, whether it be ability, attitude, constitution, or injury etc. This is not a sport for the impatient, and as long as you give the trainer the time to give a proper assessment, then a measured decision can be made. If you don't agree then most trainers would encourage you to try another trainer.

Cheers.

Robert.

[Happy Sunrise]

20 minutes ago, Double R said:

If you are paying anything from $50 to $100 a day to have your horse trained, in general, it is not realistic to think that horses are tinkered around to get a few thousand extra in a couple weeks time

Most would be trying to win to sell unless you have a very very good horse.  A 25 000 stake on Cup Day still won't cut it financially. Peanuts really. Maybe they should boost Cup Day stakes by taking a little out of the Jewels money and get it up to 50 000 per race. (is the Jewels still going?)

And I don't think making big money off the punt is viable these days either.

[Addington]

12 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said:

Maybe they should boost Cup Day stakes by taking a little out of the Jewels money and get it up to 50 000 per race.

The problem with that option  and it has been studied before by officials is that it wont make any difference to the quality of the fields on Cup week. So its not going to provide any more income to the club via increased turnover.