Hesi Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 With all the discussion about assessing and backing value, I am toying with the idea of running a comp along the following lines 1. Any Sat meeting in Aus/NZ, including also the big midweek ones, through till the last Sat before Boxing Day, about 28 days in total 2. 1 selection per Sat, $1 win on that horse, or maybe $2 win or $2 place or $1 ew 3. Pick your horse, when you post, quote the fixed odds price, and the agency quoting that price 4. Scoring is(based on NZ TAB fixed odds closing prices) You select a $30 priced horse, it wins and pays $12, you score $18 for that week You select a $10 horse, it wins and pays $15, your score for that week is minus $5 Etc etc each week, highest cumulative score is the winner Must enter for a minimum of 20 of the 28 weeks, so allows for late starters, amnesiacs etc etc No win, no score that week Prize ? Any thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 2, 2019 Author Share Posted July 2, 2019 PS: We would invite our Monday selectors with all the theory on the other site to enter, they can post on their site, and it would just be incorporated into the result listing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 Nice idea, some thoughts - Picking a 6.00 shot that starts at 2.00 is a lot more impressive than picking a 50.00 shot that starts at 40.00. Somehow the book % of overlay needs to be used as the reward. - How about a bank with limits on stake ($100 bank $1 min $5 max for example) to allow for weighting according to perceived value. - How about ignoring the race results? Pretty easy to miss a 15.00 or 20.00 shot 28 weeks in a row. - How about allowing more selections per raceday? If you're going to lose $$ when your selection starts at a higher price this should naturally whittle down to a fairly small number of selections. - FF prices at start time are harder to dig up so just using Tote for the start price would be fine imo. It's the same barometer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 Just s couple of considerations re value and such a comp. Picking a horse at 50s that starts at 20s, doesn't mean the horse is not still value at 20s and also doesn't mean it was even value at 50s. Conversely picking a horse at 10s that starts at 20s, may still have been value at 10s, just more value at 20s (or may still not be value at 20s). This would be more an exercise in assessing whether a horse will shorten (which is a skill also). People able to determine horses that will shorten will often trade those runners on exchanges to lock in profit. Especially if even the higher price does not actually represent value. They are simply trading on their ability to predict punter behaviour towards a horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 2, 2019 Author Share Posted July 2, 2019 More thought required methinks. Looking for a simple means that can be measured, that is an indicator of achieving value. As has been said before, picking winners does not mean you will make money, it's all about successfully picking value. Perhaps just a straight selection scenario, but then that allows the longshot swoopers to do exactly that, swoop, like yours truly, who won a comp on here a few weeks ago by picking 2 longshots, and that was it..............much to the disgust of a few 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 2, 2019 Author Share Posted July 2, 2019 Let's keep it simple I guess the best gauge of whether you are successfully assessing value, is profit after 28 weeks. So far then, 28 weeks, must enter 20 or more weeks to be valid. Last round, the Sat before Boxing Day 5 selections anywhere in Aus/NZ on the Sat, or mid week for a handful of keynote meetings $10 on each selection, split how you want, all win, all place, each way Fixed odd prices, must state at time of posting, and agency Prize $500 Thoughts again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 (edited) 1) I think you stick to Saturday only 2) Win only you use the highest price of the 3 tabs, (tote odds not fixed) as too many people will be disadvantaged not understanding BF 3) You only need use a $1 win bet as it works out exactly the same in the long run 4) NZ races and Australian races only 5) Cut off time 11-59am NZ time 6) You have teams of 3 eg Mardi/Barry/LFV might be one team Say no more/TC/VvD might be another team Sir C /Jenlove:/Maximus might be another team Gee/Dogstar/? Might be another team Pete/Hesi/? might be another team VC!/Gypsy Nicks/? Might be another PJ/Sharne/Jamison might be another Brian/Rosina/Betty might be another etc etc etc etc you get the picture 7) Each player has 3 picks that makes 9 in total for the day 😎 To qualify for the $500 prize it obviously goes to the team with the highest total but that team must be in profit at the end of the 28 weeks 9) At the end of the comp the winning team members will select 1 runner each to run in the first 3 any race anywhere the runner must be paying a minimum of $2 for a place The $500 will be put on their 3 selections as a multi eg $2 x $2 x $2 would equal $8 ...500 times the collect would equal a minimum of 4 thousand of which each player in the team would collect 1k this would leave 1k over of which $500 would be returned to you Hesi and the remaining $500 to start up another comp and do it all over again Edited July 3, 2019 by VC! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 16 hours ago, VC! said: 1) I think you stick to Saturday only 2) Win only you use the highest price of the 3 tabs, (tote odds not fixed) as too many people will be disadvantaged not understanding BF 3) You only need use a $1 win bet as it works out exactly the same in the long run 4) NZ races and Australian races only 5) Cut off time 11-59am NZ time 6) You have teams of 3 eg Mardi/Barry/LFV might be one team Say no more/TC/VvD might be another team Sir C /Jenlove:/Maximus might be another team Gee/Dogstar/? Might be another team Pete/Hesi/? might be another team VC!/Gypsy Nicks/? Might be another PJ/Sharne/Jamison might be another Brian/Rosina/Betty might be another etc etc etc etc you get the picture 7) Each player has 3 picks that makes 9 in total for the day 😎 To qualify for the $500 prize it obviously goes to the team with the highest total but that team must be in profit at the end of the 28 weeks 9) At the end of the comp the winning team members will select 1 runner each to run in the first 3 any race anywhere the runner must be paying a minimum of $2 for a place The $500 will be put on their 3 selections as a multi eg $2 x $2 x $2 would equal $8 ...500 times the collect would equal a minimum of 4 thousand of which each player in the team would collect 1k this would leave 1k over of which $500 would be returned to you Hesi and the remaining $500 to start up another comp and do it all over again I'm not going on the same team as Hesi 🤨 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 17 hours ago, pete said: I'm not going on the same team as Hesi 🤨 What about those value bets Hesinator came up with to win Brian’s comp you guys would be favourite’s 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 4, 2019 Author Share Posted July 4, 2019 More thought required Was hoping to attract some of the punting blue bloods Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 17 minutes ago, VC! said: What about those value bets Hesinator came up with to win Brian’s comp you guys would be favourite’s It was a bit of a joke Ian. Hesi and I are far happier being opponents 😎 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 4, 2019 Author Share Posted July 4, 2019 15 minutes ago, Hesi said: More thought required Was hoping to attract some of the punting blue bloods So can't be too involved, and the emphasis has to be on being rewarded for selecting value. Now that is not to exclude those that may want to select shorter priced favourites, but the gist of what is being posted over the last few months, is that you can't make money by punting short priced faves Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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