NZ CUP Odds

[Happy Sunrise]

The odds have finally become of interest if you have a fancy. I say of interest because I don't think all of the favs will start so if you think a horse is on the up it may well be the time to back it, especially since you get your money back as bonus bet if it doesn't start in FF market.

Akuta may not start.

Copy That may not start.

Lochinvar Art ran second last night in Oz after a long lay off so hard to make anything of that. Would they really come with the inter-dominions soon after?

South Coast Arden doesn't seem to be the same horse unless trained by the All Stars in covid times.

A G's White Socks is / was going awful in Australia and is now an 8 year old so surely he won't start.

Old Town Road has come a long way in a short time and suddenly gets thrust into 31s after winning last week. Still only a rated 76 pacer.

Franco Indie surely won't start in this rarified race.

Pembrook Playboy seems injury plagued and I wonder if we will ever see the best of him, last year might have been his best chance. Not sure but it would be good to see go well.

So who is on the up?

I would say Majestic Cruiser, Alta Wiseguy, Krug, Hot and Treacherous and Shan Noble.

Who could cause some carnage?

Laver who was 15ff top 3 now into 9ff and Cranbourne with Matty W on.

 

And then we have Self Assured who they all have to beat but 2.80ff will be a race day go for the big punters and multi makers.

 

[karrotsishere]

Gee when you put it that way, starts to lack depth. Agree with your assessment.

Alta Wiseguy may not start. Telfer said hes more a short distance speed horse. Whats happenee to Benji Bounce? Claimer that won Interdoms last year? Would he come over or is he out of form? 

Was thinking when debate NZ Cup Handicap & there was an ultimation (Copy That) owner saying wouldnt run if handicapped, thought but they arent guarenteed to run eg anything can happen Pembroke Playboy pulled out soon prior, Spellbound (The Race scratched injury) & CT himself was returning from injury. 

Quite like a horse Hey Bartender (Lou). 4 starts 3 wins. All wins impressive. Last race Mar 2022 win beating Cyrus. Hes a 4yo - 1/2 to Billy Badger, Stars Tonight, Need You Know. 

Might be another Old Town Road or possibly better. Has the breeding. Very lightly raced. Wonder why? Will keep eye out if he makes an apperance soon. Prob nxt year be his NZ Cup year. 

Edited August 22, 2022 by karrotsishere

[Happy Sunrise]

4 hours ago, karrotsishere said:

Gee when you put it that way, starts to lack depth.

Only if the majority don't turn up. Hopefully they all do which will mean the most competitive field in years. Another by product, would be the dogfight to even get in which would mean big fields in the lead up races.

5 hours ago, karrotsishere said:

Alta Wiseguy may not start. Telfer said hes more a short distance speed horse.

He appears to be but has won over 2600m. If he sat quietly while all hell broke loose around in the Cup he might be a chance.

5 hours ago, karrotsishere said:

Whats happenee to Benji Bounce? Claimer that won Interdoms last year? Would he come over or is he out of form? 

No good in Lochinvar Art's race at weekend.

[Globederby19]

At 15,s I would take Majestic Cruiser all day. A very good Grand Circuit horse, tough as nails, an experienced campaigner. 

And B D Joe for my smokey.  

[Happy Sunrise]

1 hour ago, Globederby19 said:

At 15,s I would take Majestic Cruiser all day. A very good Grand Circuit horse, tough as nails, an experienced campaigner. 

Not sure why he drifted from 13s. Hard as nails.

[Rusty]

11 hours ago, karrotsishere said:

Gee when you put it that way, starts to lack depth. 

Yet the club will still have 15 horses start in the Cup. Regardless of the depth, or lack thereof. 

One of my pet hates, throwing 3 or 4 horses in the Cup every year, that aren't really old school "Cup Class" horses. Clutters up the field in my opinion. Dumbs it all down. Common thing to do these days though I guess. 

[Globederby19]

15 hours ago, Rusty said:

Common thing to do these days though I guess. 

Not necessarily Rusty. Under different circumstances (regional shifts) the Wellington Cup was an open class affair at Hutt Park, used to see all the big names . But over a period it descended into farce until a class 5 horse was the top prospect .A lot of us were sad to see Hutt Parks demise.  I agree that throwing in a horse to make up numbers that are not open class or at least just below that level of  pacer dumbs it down, and gives those with a legitimate claim to winning nothing but traffic problems .  I would rather see a 10 horses field with the top horses., as it tramples on the prestige of the CUP and its history by introducing horses that haven't made the grade(yet), and have little or no chance. jmho

[Rusty]

8 hours ago, Globederby19 said:

I would rather see a 10 horses field with the top horses., as it tramples on the prestige of the CUP and its history by introducing horses that haven't made the grade(yet), and have little or no chance. jmho

Yes, I couldn't agree more. 

NZMTC would do well, to take a leaf out of the Moonee Valley Racing Club's book (with the Cox Plate), and not try to bugger up their flagship race. 

Here is a prediction: 

Cambridge's "The Race" will overtake the NZ Cup as the country's premier harness race within 4 years. 

[Lightning Blue]

On 8/22/2022 at 10:13 PM, Rusty said:

One of my pet hates, throwing 3 or 4 horses in the Cup every year, that aren't really old school "Cup Class" horses. Clutters up the field in my opinion. Dumbs it all down.

 

1 hour ago, Rusty said:

Cambridge's "The Race" will overtake the NZ Cup as the country's premier harness race within 4 years. 

By all reports The Race was a huge success at the first running , and mightn't need 4 years to get a Premier status. Is a great strategy to get companies and interested parties involved and owning a Top horse for the day on arrangements. 

Here's last year's NZ Cup result below. The favoured 3 ran the Trifecta easily with none of the unplaced runners a major Cup horse whether you pick 10 to start or 15.

STEEL THE SHOW picked up over $30k for 4th, but hasn't run a place this season. But could start and get 4th again this year .? connections sure to be happy.

So which 5 horse's do you deny a start to keep the 'Quality' up then?  when there's only 4 or so 'Group 1 quality ' runners in the first place lol... . let em all have a go at least. plenty of time to sort themselves out over 2 miles.

1	10	Copy That	10	fr	330,000.00	2/2	3-58.8		B N Orange	Ray Green
2	15	Self Assured	15	fr	93,000.00	1/1	3-59.3	2.60	Mark Purdon	Mark Purdon & Hayden Cullen
3	16	South Coast Arden	U1	fr	54,000.00	3/4	3-59.4	3.10	N C Rasmussen	Brent Mangos
4	1	Steel The Show	1	fr	31,500.00	8/8	3-59.7	4.80	R J Butt	Robert & Jenna Dunn
5	6	Classie Brigade	6	fr	18,000.00	4/3	3-59.9	5.60	John R Dunn	Robert & Jenna Dunn
6	17	Laver	U2	fr	10,500.00	10/9	3-59.9	5.90	G D O'Reilly	Geoff & James Dunn
7	9	Kango	9	fr	10,500.00	14/14	4-00.6	9.00	S J Ottley	Arna Donnelly
8	13	Terry	13	fr	10,500.00	11/11	4-00.6	9.10	R D Close	Regan Todd
9	2	Vintage Cheddar	2	fr	10,500.00	7/6	4-00.6	9.30	Brad Williamson	Alister Black
10	12	Bad To The Bone	12	fr	10,500.00	5/5	4-00.6	9.40	C J DeFilippi	Barry Purdon & Scott Phelan
11	7	Robyns Playboy	7	fr	10,500.00	6/7	4-01.1	11.50	C R Ferguson	Ross & Chris Wilson
12	5	Matt Damon	5	fr	10,500.00	13/13	4-01.7	14.50	G D Smith	Robert & Jenna Dunn
13	11	Henry Hubert	11	fr	10,500.00	9/10	4-01.9	15.90	T M Williams	Robert & Jenna Dunn
14	8	Cranbourne	8	fr	10,500.00	12/12	4-02.4	18.30	S R McNally	Brent White
15	18	Dance Time	U3	fr	10,500.00	15/15	4-07.5	43.60	Craig D Thornley	Steve & Amanda Telfer

[karrotsishere]

11 hours ago, Rusty said:

Here is a prediction: 

Cambridge's "The Race" will overtake the NZ Cup as the country's premier harness race within 4 years. 

Agree. Its funny, was actually thinking this a week ago & was going to post as so. But didnt want to offend the Southern crew on here. Various reasons for my prediction. Still think Camb should upt stake (which at least minimum will be $10k soon) & upgrade facilities. Its good the club didnt listen to the nayssayers re The Race.

Edited August 23, 2022 by karrotsishere

[karrotsishere]

9 hours ago, Lightning Blue said:

 

By all reports The Race was a huge success at the first running , and mightn't need 4 years to get a Premier status. Is a great strategy to get companies and interested parties involved and owning a Top horse for the day on arrangements. 

Here's last year's NZ Cup result below. The favoured 3 ran the Trifecta easily with none of the unplaced runners a major Cup horse whether you pick 10 to start or 15.

STEEL THE SHOW picked up over $30k for 4th, but hasn't run a place this season. But could start and get 4th again this year .? connections sure to be happy.

So which 5 horse's do you deny a start to keep the 'Quality' up then?  when there's only 4 or so 'Group 1 quality ' runners in the first place lol... . let em all have a go at least. plenty of time to sort themselves out over 2 miles.

1	10	Copy That	10	fr	330,000.00	2/2	3-58.8		B N Orange	Ray Green
2	15	Self Assured	15	fr	93,000.00	1/1	3-59.3	2.60	Mark Purdon	Mark Purdon & Hayden Cullen
3	16	South Coast Arden	U1	fr	54,000.00	3/4	3-59.4	3.10	N C Rasmussen	Brent Mangos
4	1	Steel The Show	1	fr	31,500.00	8/8	3-59.7	4.80	R J Butt	Robert & Jenna Dunn
5	6	Classie Brigade	6	fr	18,000.00	4/3	3-59.9	5.60	John R Dunn	Robert & Jenna Dunn
6	17	Laver	U2	fr	10,500.00	10/9	3-59.9	5.90	G D O'Reilly	Geoff & James Dunn
7	9	Kango	9	fr	10,500.00	14/14	4-00.6	9.00	S J Ottley	Arna Donnelly
8	13	Terry	13	fr	10,500.00	11/11	4-00.6	9.10	R D Close	Regan Todd
9	2	Vintage Cheddar	2	fr	10,500.00	7/6	4-00.6	9.30	Brad Williamson	Alister Black
10	12	Bad To The Bone	12	fr	10,500.00	5/5	4-00.6	9.40	C J DeFilippi	Barry Purdon & Scott Phelan
11	7	Robyns Playboy	7	fr	10,500.00	6/7	4-01.1	11.50	C R Ferguson	Ross & Chris Wilson
12	5	Matt Damon	5	fr	10,500.00	13/13	4-01.7	14.50	G D Smith	Robert & Jenna Dunn
13	11	Henry Hubert	11	fr	10,500.00	9/10	4-01.9	15.90	T M Williams	Robert & Jenna Dunn
14	8	Cranbourne	8	fr	10,500.00	12/12	4-02.4	18.30	S R McNally	Brent White
15	18	Dance Time	U3	fr	10,500.00	15/15	4-07.5	43.60	Craig D Thornley	Steve & Amanda Telfer

Matt Damon is retired. Dancetime out with injury. Robyns Playboy exported & out of form. Vintage Cheddar exported. Thats 4 right there. 

[Happy Sunrise]

Was great to watch a very willing race last night. Refreshing after the lame recent racing.

Hezasport will add a bit of interest to the Cup but it looks like the winter horses eg Smiffy's Terror are not up to those returning to the races now.   Anybody who backed Laver and The Falcon at triple figure odds will be happy they did.

[Globederby19]

3 hours ago, Happy Sunrise said:

The Falcon

Has won over 3200 in 4.00min, and usually finishes his races off well. Good from a stand too. Not sure he will get in as wasn't on that original list. Laver has had a wind opp.

[Happy Sunrise]

16 minutes ago, Globederby19 said:

Has won over 3200 in 4.00min, and usually finishes his races off well. Good from a stand too. Not sure he will get in as wasn't on that original list.

Rating 73 so win need to win a couple. Wouldn't be out of place in it. 

The great thing is it could be the best dog fight in years to qualify for the Cup.

[Rusty]

15 hours ago, Happy Sunrise said:

The great thing is it could be the best dog fight in years to qualify for the Cup.

Wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute...

You'll telling me that horses need to qualify, in order to start in the Cup?! So they just don't let anyone in? 

Asking for a friend. 

[Happy Sunrise]

38 minutes ago, Rusty said:

ou'll telling me that horses need to qualify, in order to start in the Cup?! So they just don't let anyone in? 

As long as they are not exported in the next few months.

38 minutes ago, Rusty said:

Asking for a friend. 

Surely Gary Woodham can ask his own questions 😁

[Rusty]

9 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said:

Surely Gary Woodham can ask his own questions 😁

I told you Gazza!!

I told you that we'd get caught out!

There are a few switched on in this forum! 

Ask your own bloody questions next time. 

P.S start digging out your mum's old Christmas recipes. That ham one from last year kind of missed the mark. 

[Happy Sunrise]

4 minutes ago, Rusty said:

P.S start digging out your mum's old Christmas recipes. That ham one from last year kind of missed the mark. 

Everyone loves Xmas memories.

Are you putting forward your stuffed pudding this year for the followers, Rusty? You need to do better than the pig of an idea you had with the ham.

[karrotsishere]

2 hours ago, Rusty said:

Wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute...

You'll telling me that horses need to qualify, in order to start in the Cup?! So they just don't let anyone in? 

Asking for a friend. 

As of today what odds do you give Heza Sport to qualify for The Race? Only 10 horses & prob 1/3 at least will travel over from Aussie. So at best say 6 or 7 slots up for grabs NZ horse. 

In making your assessement bare in mind he has just qualified for The Big NZ Cup. 

(Nice win & to see he has come back an improved). 

[Rusty]

1 hour ago, karrotsishere said:

As of today what odds do you give Heza Sport to qualify for The Race?

Horses can't "qualify" for The Race, they are picked up by the slot holders. 

So I guess it comes down to negotiations between slot holders and connections of horses. 

[karrotsishere]

29 minutes ago, Rusty said:

Horses can't "qualify" for The Race, they are picked up by the slot holders. 

So I guess it comes down to negotiations between slot holders and connections of horses. 

Yea know that, was just word I used. 

See Rusty, some have called us "we are dreamers", as we think The Race, will by pass NZ Cup. 

Im just driving home just part of our point. 

The Race is harder to gain a start in = more prestigious over time. 

[Rusty]

29 minutes ago, karrotsishere said:

Yea know that, was just word I used. 

See Rusty, some have called us "we are dreamers", as we think The Race, will by pass NZ Cup. 

Im just driving home just part of our point. 

The Race is harder to gain a start in = more prestigious over time. 

Sorry, I misunderstood. 

In terms of chances, of Heza Sport getting a crack; yeah look he wouldn't be in my first half dozen picks, but there is no reason why he couldn't be picked up, if he was to take the step up in the open class grade. Looks like a really nice horse, that could go on with it. Time will tell. 

I'm stoked for CJ and Julie DeFilippi too. They deserve to have another top liner, so I'm hoping for Heza Sport to have every success in the future. 

[Rusty]

35 minutes ago, karrotsishere said:

The Race is harder to gain a start in = more prestigious over time. 

I dunno about that. 

The Everest and the All Star Mile are hard to get in to, but it would take a lot for those races to become more prestigious than a slipper, a Cox Plate, or a Melbourne Cup, just in my opinion. 

The other thing too, with the slot races, a horse could win it, but there is usually no knowing how much of the winning stake the owner(s) actually get of it, depending upon the contractual arrangements agreed upon prior to the race etc.

So may not be as prestigious as other races.

[karrotsishere]

7 hours ago, Rusty said:

I dunno about that. 

The Everest and the All Star Mile are hard to get in to, but it would take a lot for those races to become more prestigious than a slipper, a Cox Plate, or a Melbourne Cup, just in my opinion. 

The other thing too, with the slot races, a horse could win it, but there is usually no knowing how much of the winning stake the owner(s) actually get of it, depending upon the contractual arrangements agreed upon prior to the race etc.

So may not be as prestigious as other races.

Ok. My wording again. Lets use your early words then as below bold. 

On 8/23/2022 at 11:57 PM, Rusty said:

Here is a prediction: 

Cambridge's "The Race" will overtake the NZ Cup as the country's premier harness race within 4 years. 

Heres an article talks about Argyle. Will be exported to Aus nxt week. Look at bold about him being a 3 win horse & would of had to compete against Copy That.

https://www.lincolnfarms.co.nz/stories/in-form-argyle-says-goodbye-to-new-zealand-for-better-opportunities-in-victoria/

When Argyle was nominated for Auckland the previous week the only race for him was against Copy That, a grim reflection on the handicapping system when a three-win horse had to front a 24-race winner of almost $1 million.

“He’s now won four races and all of a sudden there’s bugger all for him here now. There are plenty of races for him in Victoria.

*****

Wouldnt surprise me if in 4-5 years time, NZ Cup has 4 win horses in. Plus it will likely become handicapped. So effectively worse case scenerio, could become like a gloified Country Cup Race with 15 starters & a couple of emergencies. On top timing of it, some NZ top liners may opt to stay in Aussie with the lead up races & stay on in Aussie for Interdoms. (Copy Thats connections have said they are not sure yet, but plan at this stage is to come back for it. Would they return if handicapped? Would they return anyway if its easier for horse less travel to stay on there?

*****

The marketing & promotion that Camb club come out with is miles above the rest. It was harder for them to gain momuentum with Jewels being biennial (once every 2 years) at Cambridge. Now with being annual, they can build on it each year. As well as a great selling point, NZs richest harness race. Year after next think they were talking raising it to $1.2 million, plus they have added a trot race too. (Money talks). 

Edited August 28, 2022 by karrotsishere

[karrotsishere]

2 hours ago, Rusty said:

I dunno about that. 

The Everest and the All Star Mile are hard to get in to, but it would take a lot for those races to become more prestigious than a slipper, a Cox Plate, or a Melbourne Cup, just in my opinion. 

The other thing too, with the slot races, a horse could win it, but there is usually no knowing how much of the winning stake the owner(s) actually get of it, depending upon the contractual arrangements agreed upon prior to the race etc.

So may not be as prestigious as other races.

Speaking of NZ, not overseas. Not being involved in gallops nor know much about, the only races I hear or have heard about are the Karaka Millions & the Boxing day races (even then no idea what races are actually on boxing day or Millions Day). 

So in North Island Id say they are the 2 that would get some sort of (oh yes Iv heard of that from general public).

The NZ Cup in the South Island has the name, so prob people will know about it. Name recognition. But done right & well The Race could easily surpass it just like the Karaka Millions has done in gallops in the North (gain name recognition). Much bigger population in the North too. 

Think some (not you Rusty) are thinking of the past & present only. Not the present & the future which is how Im looking at it. 

Edited August 28, 2022 by karrotsishere