Lightning Blue

They said it was a 'Hot' field and some Applicants were already working as Handicappers interstate . Probably the modern way of saying "Too Old " lol.. .they were kind and rang back (David Brick {QLD harness racing manager}) and said my knowledge was very good and that. they were even surprised as I had spotted an Incorrectly handicapped horse in a race field for that evening. (needed a claiming driver but didn't have one listed to be back a grade) They mentioned Albion Park might be sold soon .. wow ! and a purpose built facility built between Bris and Gold Coast . because of the Olympics in a few years time , and to house big barns , and have big track (as per the Menangle model NSW) the beautiful Gold Coast harness track closed 2010 for Commonwealth Games housing . such a waste. 😰 can't see how Albion would sell though.?? No developer would want it......As It floods All the time (every Big rain week) as is very low level. Here's a photo from March 2022 for example . A Wide 'Barrier draw' won't even help you in these conditions 😂

With ''Weight carrying'' in the News (Imperatriz beaten by a light weighted horse in the Newmarket Hcp) Famous Aussie/kiwi horse Phar Lap Carryed 65.5 kg to Victory in the 1930 Melbourne Cup . But do you remember what happened the year before? . What happened with Phar Lap? A bit of Trivia Not many know This horse in Photo did the damage . who is he? and what other connection to Phar Lap does he have ? Here's todays Trivia horse .

Apologies mate . I don't have that answer . I recently applied for the Queensland Harness Racing Handicapper job ,fairly straight forward National Ratings stuff to handicap the Pacers and Trotters... but got knocked back 😰 , rather unfortunately as would of been good at that.. At least got an Interview I spose.🙄 As far as doing the weights for Eagle Farm and Doomben . That would be pretty hard to do. I remember Carpenter used to get criticized All the time doing the Melbourne Cup Weights every year. Thankless Job . (as is some forums posting lol😁) Maybe you could try and ring Vic Racing HQ, and see if you could Speak to the Handicapper ? he might be able to answer your question ? Good article THANKS to Pete Lane there about weights today on this thread . Thanks Pete !! 🏆.

To be honest it sucks. It's working for Sundee's Son (now thankfully retired for the sake of the opposition) as he was winning Rowe Cups and Dominions and then the following year in same races still starting off the front from the stand . and trotting 2miles in 3.56 odd on. 4 seconds odd National record lol People there were just selling off their trotters to Australia or waiting for the grass track. Lazarus and Copy That did exactly the same in NZ CUP and NZ loses MANY MANY horses because of this . They give up trying to win a Big one there, and just send them to an Aus state. The NZ harness CEO was racing his in NSW, Robin Butt races his good ones in WA, The NZ system is Definitely Not Working well . you are Running Out of Horses !!!!

Nothing wrong with the trotting . NZ a proud tradition and many fine champions. Sadly they have fiddled with the Handicap system and made some of the great races FFA's so the best are off the Front like Sundee's Son and Copy That so can win more than one of the features like the NZ Cup, Rowe Cup , Dominion and that and not be penalized like years gone by. 10m and 20m behind from the stand the galloping equal of getting a Weight Penalty. (and therefore gives ALL RUNNERS a Runners Chance of Victory) as Is now...The same horses win over and over and the Competition Fades greatly. and the harness Industry is struggling in NZ because of this. Weight in the sulky (fat driver) makes Very little DIFFERENCE mate , the Wheels are taking the weight of driver , Not the horse . Pretty sure you know this already , can actually be beneficial on occasion, if the driver can swing back over the point of balance and sort of lift the horse slightly via the harness. Hopefully you might know what I mean ,..but your so ''Engrained '' in your ways ?? lol look out for the Inside draws too , at the trots and in Slipper 😁😎😉🍻

So you're saying a system Thousands of racing folk/clubs use doesn't work . and then blame me for saying it does ? hahaha FAAAAIRRyy land for you my friend . The Apprentice Claim System doesn't work either ?? lol . why do they have it then ? It's because it's a racing way to give the young jocks a chance , and the horse / owner some weight relief so they are a MUCH STRONGER chance of getting the WIn . Tried and Proven. I'm a trotting bloke and can see it Works. SO Is everyone ingrained in Head like me ? hahaha you're a funny bugger. Quite frankly would be better if you didn't respond as you suggest , as you're a century or 2 behind the times unfortunately . WFA rules !!!! lol.

Great to see we moved on from barrier position to weight to try and get our horses beat. Whatever Mardi or Pete says about the weight scale, it's just a Way to TRY and even the contest a Bit. A TRIED and PROVEN method but if you want to say it doesn't work . bully for you. The racing industry employs it as a model every race day whether you like it or Not. A LOT of folk backed Cylinder in the Newmarket BECAUSE of the PULL in the Weights , including Richo and Many others , and they got 11-1 . I hate seeing champions beat so Alas didn't come to that party. It's just a Way to try and give everyone an equal chance chance , based on horses previous performances. Isn't that just normal in Racing ???? every race day . you're in FAIRRRY LAnd if you don't recognize this . Of course EVERY KILO makes a difference. I don't ride but I know that is a FACT. look at the results some horses get with claiming apprentices as they work down through the claims. I did very well backing Poy, then Cartwright , then Gaudray , with their claims as they worked down form 4 kg to 1 kg off. I'm now looking for my next one . any tips Mardi ?? (Victoria please)

doubt that is true at all sorry Mardi. the weights Definitely effect a horses chances, ( and have done since Phar lap and beyond) We just saw a prime example with your NZ star horse Imperatriz being beaten by the weight scale with Cylinder cruising on past. The weights handicap evened up the contest and the champion mare was beat. (If they had level weights I hazard a guess she would beat Cylinder) so think you are in fairy tale land mate, as there are examples of that every week . and that one was just thrown in your face very recently.

sorry mate .had wires crossed 🙄. brain is not working properly lol ..Best of Luck to the Reapers this week . and was just seeing I drew Chief's mate Jack . Hope that is a good player I put on picture avatar. (Don't know who it is 😂 but let's hope he scores a ' try' against Jack lol. try and get a winner anyway 😂

Well the Reapers were out-reaped last week on the score-board mate > 5 zip, by the tough Blue Collar workers maybe the Reapers should stay behind the PJ red Finals Line like the factory does 😂, .... to try for some redemption/revenge in the PJ Presidents Cup ? 💰😎

Seems the best model to use. where you are in the run almost certainly effects your finishing position. your modelling on horse ability and rivals makes sense , but the ratings system(s) generally place/pits horses of fairly equal ability against each other. and then are of course handicapped to get them even more level with proven criteria. (e.g mares weighted less, etc) All the horses racing at Saturday gallops metro racing are turned out in amazing order by terrific professional trainers and their dedicated strappers. Some are being 'prepared ' for races further into their campaign, but generally All the Rivals have ability and are suitable. so is a tricky way to look at them for the normal observer. I can look at a field and decide instantly of the prospects of your 'ability' runner from a combo of who is riding/driving and training it , (some you can instantly rate as a best prospect for the race you are looking at) ...along with barrier draw like in the Golden Slipper 😆😁🏆 ...and of course Where you might think they might lob in the running (super important ) The market is more for the sheep punters , trying to follow a money trail. Pretty deceptive at times it feels? so I don't use market as a guide very often t all. the tipping agencies who don't know a horses prospects just put "Watch the Market" by it. bit of a cop-out ?. but just shows they know No more than you or I. A horse doesn't know it's odds lol... so your system is probably better than market 'expectation' method and Barry's is definitely better . Happy Punting !! (and/or racehorse supporting !! )

I found this to be critical in 75% of races I was in , occasionally you had a fast beginner drawn wide (who could deal with that problem so not an issue ) Gai and Bott have a fair few in the Slipper with some strong chances drawn 1. 2 and 3. they might let Straight Charge cross them from wider ?? with noted front running jock Tim Clark up on top of it. gives a lovely 'Suck along' to the inside ones then ? i'm sure you'll agree? as will barry, curious and other data men but will possibly/probably try and leave Switzerland 3 wide , for Jmac and Waller with him drawn 7 ? that's my plan anyway 😆😂 bet he wishes he drew 2 lol... might be yodelling along yippppeee yiii yaaa yippee yi yooo left out in the Alps...😉

It's a field of high priced 2 year olds . No slugs at all . it's a big field the Golden Slipper too . Of Course the Winner can come from anywhere. (any Barrier) We All know that already. there's a bit of Luck in the running involved still. My case , that I mentioned , point 1/ Is IF You Had A PREFERENCE of What Barrier You would Like to draw in the GS (or any race for that matter) . The Majority of Connections would select an Inside Barrier?.say from 1 -4 . ....( and NO , Thai is Not the case in the Flemington Straight six or whatever, as it is a straight line ). AND 2/ if you did Draw an Inside Barrier (say 5 and in ) you are FAR more likely to land in a 'Prominent position' in the running. (going around a bend in a race) points 1 and 2 are better than anything Mardi is confusing himself with ..

Yes. where you land in the running has a great Impact on your chances of winning. Therefore BARRIER draw is Critical . (to getting a good Pozie) esp trots as well as you and i know very well indeed. it's Not drastically different at the gallops . I thought what Max said above is very good. You do it by observation skills . Fireburn may of drawn 'one in her GS Win' as Hesi has shown, but it came from a long way back . I'm saying the chance of Lobbing handier , are greatly increased by drawing IN. (not just the Slipper, but most races) . you just can't afford to Gas your horse too much early or you don't have the finishing burst left , that the rivals with cover will have. just common observation and reality . no Data needed...

geez mate .over a sprint distance at Rosehill it would be way better to draw in closer than the outside barriers. You don't need 'Data' that everyone keeps waffling about to tell you this. people can use OBSERVATION skills from all the races that are run , to 'Work out ' the chances of where they might lob in the running. Gai Waterhouse tries to by-pass this by sending Most of her runners forward at a great rate of knots early , no matter what the barrier draw. No Data needed. just watching her horses go tells the story. The Golden Slipper is a 2 year old race. They're just learning . If you draw inside you potentially cover LESS ground than someone Caught wide OR having to improve wide as they do the home turn . yes? an inside draw horse might have to run 1.9.5 time to win the Slipper , while the outside draw ones might have to break 1.9 for the 1200m. a big ask for youngsters . Give me the INSIDE draw ...anyway.. anyday ..any race anytime.. i'll have the wide draw runners 'working' harder lol.

The modern day Vo Rogue , and she is just getting better and better. What a great Win 🏆

Gordy might be behind the couch already. Isn't that his usual spot as you get into the Final leg ?

Now where did my horse go? who put that hedge there ?

Yes that is our horse . Didn't win as much as I thought initially . 9 from 43 starts . so a bit tough for the NZ folk here. The interesting bit of Trivia was Conrad SIEGFRIED, the KAOS man in famous TV comedy Get Smart was only in 14 of the 138 episodes filmed of Get Smart. seemed like a Way LOT more ?? . One of the funniest TV Villians ever . most famous quote >> " This is KAOS, we don't Do That here " 😁

yep. Pretty sure he had 5 cracks on Magic Millions day across 5 years. Is a handsome Chestnut too 🥰. Captain Ray at KAOS HQ would nail this one . They might be too tricky for PJ at CONTROL HQ.

Ride your horses hard tomorrow Hesi mate , to try and beat this Grim Lot of selections . there is a BRIGHTSIDE today though 😆 R1) 1 - 3 R2) 4 - 7 R3) 5 - 10 R4) 1 - 15 BB R5) 2 - 5 R6) 2 - 5 R7) 4 - 10 R8) 1 - 3 R9) 1 - 6 R10) 8 - 13 BB Watch out the Lightning don't get ya Hesi . Best of luck with your selections ..

Thursday Trivia for you PJ. A tough one ? Who do we have here? Clue : With the No mates v Kaos Clash on this weekend , this horse might Not be supporting your Team PJ.

Never had much form Hesi mate lol . PJ just won't put Menangle up on the raceboard for me to get some form 😂. so have to linger at the back of the pack in this strong PJ line up..... but do Think we got the Presidents Cup with Chief's is about the form level 😅. so Maybe Meet the Reapers in a Presidents Cup 🏆 in this Comp ?? unless you can fire the lads up a bit and 'Reaper Up' a Win or 2 in the near future to get in the Top half..... 😉 The boys are not swinging the Sythe blade hard enough maybe ? You better show em' how it's done young fella 🏇🏇🃏 warm that joker up 🔥⚡ don't let the cricket play on your mind or anything , what went wrong 😁🍻🏏

Looks Like VC and SS are preparing Hesi for the run home , when he realises the Factory are Winning the Match-up on Saturday , and he won't make the Finals ? 😁

Done and Dusted 🏆. Captain Pat the winning runs. He's turning into one of the best Captains Australia ever had at controlling the play/ Situation .. Who needs Warner anymore . loan him to the Blackcaps at reduced rates? 😉 Time for a Sing-Along after that impressive Test Hesi . Here's one for you mate. (Bruce singing about baseball , but that's also a hit the ball and take run game , so close enough 😂😂 .. good little song for after the cricket (and Sat maybe 😅🏇)