Lightning Blue

Great to see we moved on from barrier position to weight to try and get our horses beat. Whatever Mardi or Pete says about the weight scale, it's just a Way to TRY and even the contest a Bit. A TRIED and PROVEN method but if you want to say it doesn't work . bully for you. The racing industry employs it as a model every race day whether you like it or Not. A LOT of folk backed Cylinder in the Newmarket BECAUSE of the PULL in the Weights , including Richo and Many others , and they got 11-1 . I hate seeing champions beat so Alas didn't come to that party. It's just a Way to try and give everyone an equal chance chance , based on horses previous performances. Isn't that just normal in Racing ???? every race day . you're in FAIRRRY LAnd if you don't recognize this . Of course EVERY KILO makes a difference. I don't ride but I know that is a FACT. look at the results some horses get with claiming apprentices as they work down through the claims. I did very well backing Poy, then Cartwright , then Gaudray , with their claims as they worked down form 4 kg to 1 kg off. I'm now looking for my next one . any tips Mardi ?? (Victoria please)

doubt that is true at all sorry Mardi. the weights Definitely effect a horses chances, ( and have done since Phar lap and beyond) We just saw a prime example with your NZ star horse Imperatriz being beaten by the weight scale with Cylinder cruising on past. The weights handicap evened up the contest and the champion mare was beat. (If they had level weights I hazard a guess she would beat Cylinder) so think you are in fairy tale land mate, as there are examples of that every week . and that one was just thrown in your face very recently.

sorry mate .had wires crossed 🙄. brain is not working properly lol ..Best of Luck to the Reapers this week . and was just seeing I drew Chief's mate Jack . Hope that is a good player I put on picture avatar. (Don't know who it is 😂 but let's hope he scores a ' try' against Jack lol. try and get a winner anyway 😂

Well the Reapers were out-reaped last week on the score-board mate > 5 zip, by the tough Blue Collar workers maybe the Reapers should stay behind the PJ red Finals Line like the factory does 😂, .... to try for some redemption/revenge in the PJ Presidents Cup ? 💰😎

Seems the best model to use. where you are in the run almost certainly effects your finishing position. your modelling on horse ability and rivals makes sense , but the ratings system(s) generally place/pits horses of fairly equal ability against each other. and then are of course handicapped to get them even more level with proven criteria. (e.g mares weighted less, etc) All the horses racing at Saturday gallops metro racing are turned out in amazing order by terrific professional trainers and their dedicated strappers. Some are being 'prepared ' for races further into their campaign, but generally All the Rivals have ability and are suitable. so is a tricky way to look at them for the normal observer. I can look at a field and decide instantly of the prospects of your 'ability' runner from a combo of who is riding/driving and training it , (some you can instantly rate as a best prospect for the race you are looking at) ...along with barrier draw like in the Golden Slipper 😆😁🏆 ...and of course Where you might think they might lob in the running (super important ) The market is more for the sheep punters , trying to follow a money trail. Pretty deceptive at times it feels? so I don't use market as a guide very often t all. the tipping agencies who don't know a horses prospects just put "Watch the Market" by it. bit of a cop-out ?. but just shows they know No more than you or I. A horse doesn't know it's odds lol... so your system is probably better than market 'expectation' method and Barry's is definitely better . Happy Punting !! (and/or racehorse supporting !! )

I found this to be critical in 75% of races I was in , occasionally you had a fast beginner drawn wide (who could deal with that problem so not an issue ) Gai and Bott have a fair few in the Slipper with some strong chances drawn 1. 2 and 3. they might let Straight Charge cross them from wider ?? with noted front running jock Tim Clark up on top of it. gives a lovely 'Suck along' to the inside ones then ? i'm sure you'll agree? as will barry, curious and other data men but will possibly/probably try and leave Switzerland 3 wide , for Jmac and Waller with him drawn 7 ? that's my plan anyway 😆😂 bet he wishes he drew 2 lol... might be yodelling along yippppeee yiii yaaa yippee yi yooo left out in the Alps...😉

It's a field of high priced 2 year olds . No slugs at all . it's a big field the Golden Slipper too . Of Course the Winner can come from anywhere. (any Barrier) We All know that already. there's a bit of Luck in the running involved still. My case , that I mentioned , point 1/ Is IF You Had A PREFERENCE of What Barrier You would Like to draw in the GS (or any race for that matter) . The Majority of Connections would select an Inside Barrier?.say from 1 -4 . ....( and NO , Thai is Not the case in the Flemington Straight six or whatever, as it is a straight line ). AND 2/ if you did Draw an Inside Barrier (say 5 and in ) you are FAR more likely to land in a 'Prominent position' in the running. (going around a bend in a race) points 1 and 2 are better than anything Mardi is confusing himself with ..

Yes. where you land in the running has a great Impact on your chances of winning. Therefore BARRIER draw is Critical . (to getting a good Pozie) esp trots as well as you and i know very well indeed. it's Not drastically different at the gallops . I thought what Max said above is very good. You do it by observation skills . Fireburn may of drawn 'one in her GS Win' as Hesi has shown, but it came from a long way back . I'm saying the chance of Lobbing handier , are greatly increased by drawing IN. (not just the Slipper, but most races) . you just can't afford to Gas your horse too much early or you don't have the finishing burst left , that the rivals with cover will have. just common observation and reality . no Data needed...

geez mate .over a sprint distance at Rosehill it would be way better to draw in closer than the outside barriers. You don't need 'Data' that everyone keeps waffling about to tell you this. people can use OBSERVATION skills from all the races that are run , to 'Work out ' the chances of where they might lob in the running. Gai Waterhouse tries to by-pass this by sending Most of her runners forward at a great rate of knots early , no matter what the barrier draw. No Data needed. just watching her horses go tells the story. The Golden Slipper is a 2 year old race. They're just learning . If you draw inside you potentially cover LESS ground than someone Caught wide OR having to improve wide as they do the home turn . yes? an inside draw horse might have to run 1.9.5 time to win the Slipper , while the outside draw ones might have to break 1.9 for the 1200m. a big ask for youngsters . Give me the INSIDE draw ...anyway.. anyday ..any race anytime.. i'll have the wide draw runners 'working' harder lol.

The modern day Vo Rogue , and she is just getting better and better. What a great Win 🏆

Gordy might be behind the couch already. Isn't that his usual spot as you get into the Final leg ?

Now where did my horse go? who put that hedge there ?

Yes that is our horse . Didn't win as much as I thought initially . 9 from 43 starts . so a bit tough for the NZ folk here. The interesting bit of Trivia was Conrad SIEGFRIED, the KAOS man in famous TV comedy Get Smart was only in 14 of the 138 episodes filmed of Get Smart. seemed like a Way LOT more ?? . One of the funniest TV Villians ever . most famous quote >> " This is KAOS, we don't Do That here " 😁

yep. Pretty sure he had 5 cracks on Magic Millions day across 5 years. Is a handsome Chestnut too 🥰. Captain Ray at KAOS HQ would nail this one . They might be too tricky for PJ at CONTROL HQ.

Ride your horses hard tomorrow Hesi mate , to try and beat this Grim Lot of selections . there is a BRIGHTSIDE today though 😆 R1) 1 - 3 R2) 4 - 7 R3) 5 - 10 R4) 1 - 15 BB R5) 2 - 5 R6) 2 - 5 R7) 4 - 10 R8) 1 - 3 R9) 1 - 6 R10) 8 - 13 BB Watch out the Lightning don't get ya Hesi . Best of luck with your selections ..

Thursday Trivia for you PJ. A tough one ? Who do we have here? Clue : With the No mates v Kaos Clash on this weekend , this horse might Not be supporting your Team PJ.

Never had much form Hesi mate lol . PJ just won't put Menangle up on the raceboard for me to get some form 😂. so have to linger at the back of the pack in this strong PJ line up..... but do Think we got the Presidents Cup with Chief's is about the form level 😅. so Maybe Meet the Reapers in a Presidents Cup 🏆 in this Comp ?? unless you can fire the lads up a bit and 'Reaper Up' a Win or 2 in the near future to get in the Top half..... 😉 The boys are not swinging the Sythe blade hard enough maybe ? You better show em' how it's done young fella 🏇🏇🃏 warm that joker up 🔥⚡ don't let the cricket play on your mind or anything , what went wrong 😁🍻🏏

Looks Like VC and SS are preparing Hesi for the run home , when he realises the Factory are Winning the Match-up on Saturday , and he won't make the Finals ? 😁

Done and Dusted 🏆. Captain Pat the winning runs. He's turning into one of the best Captains Australia ever had at controlling the play/ Situation .. Who needs Warner anymore . loan him to the Blackcaps at reduced rates? 😉 Time for a Sing-Along after that impressive Test Hesi . Here's one for you mate. (Bruce singing about baseball , but that's also a hit the ball and take run game , so close enough 😂😂 .. good little song for after the cricket (and Sat maybe 😅🏇)

Still outside the Finals Hesi mate ? bit of Joker play to get you in for a win 🏆. The factory might put on power Cuts ?? 😂

Maestro Max and Show-time Maria 💃 playing their Jokers today with the teams playing each other 😆. best of luck with that you game Captains 💰. hope there are Aces up your sleeves lol. 🃏 Happy picking to oppo Harewood too . ...... may your 'Auckland Cup winning tipping form' continue as well Maxi !! R1/ 1 - 3 R2/ 9 - 10 OUCH lol. a very good Purdon pacer named that once. R3/ 1 - 10 R4/ 1 - 9 R5/ 6 - 8 BB R6/ 3 - 12 R7/ 3 - 13 R8/ 1 - 2 R9/ 7 - 8 R10/ 2 - 4 BB

You're doing alright mate anyway. A bit of a Bonecrushing Win today for you already on BoneCrusher New Zealand Stakes day too. Very well done 🏆🍻

great work Max ! you're a Cup winner. I nearly got that one too, to give the ginger cat Jammo a shake . Had written number 4 as my pick for the 5 PJ NZ races originally . Alas I kept 4 of them and changed the last one to Asterix at the last minute and didn't get to enjoy the Mahrajaan victory. a silly error... but well done to you though. Off to Randwick to try some catnapping we go ....

It's all going a bit pear shaped. The furry one has sunk the claws in 😅, Imperatriz beaten by the arabs, the Aussies bowled out in the cricket by the Blackcaps, the mighty Brisbane Lions were a mile in front last night, and then shockingly rolled by a point by Carlton 😰. It's up to the MIRACLE needed now. Back to the grass roots harness racing..... of the MIRACLE mile tonight at Menangle . the harness racing star race of Australia. Three Queenslanders to knock off the 5 rivals all going well (all 5 are current or ex-pat kiwis too in the eight horse field 😎) if can I get a winner eventually 😂

We're in training to take on Jammo. How quick is the Fat Cat Jamison these days ? lightning paws Imperatriz quick🏇 or just BlackCaps medium pace quick🏏 ? He'll be beaten by spin and the odd kung Fu kick. with these picks anyway 😁 Race 1/ 4 - 5 Race 2/ 4 - 7 BB Race 3/ 4 - 7 Race 4/ 4 - 9 Race 5/ Flemington 1 - 4 Race 6/ AKld Cup 2 - 6 Race 7/ 1 - 6 Race 8/ 1 - 3 Race 9/ 4 - 15 Race10/ 3 - 11 BB Race11/ Rand5 spare 3 - 4