ngakonui grass Posted January 9 Posted January 9 8 ACCEPTORS.we need programmes to be looked at seriously. Quote
Hesi Posted January 9 Posted January 9 Traditionally in the last 11 years, has not drawn large fields, 8, 7, 8 Not run, 5, 10, 7, 5, 10, 9, 8, even when run in late Oct Probably now just a race for CD horses and those not eligible for Karaka. If you are eligible, then you are certainly not going to run for 80K when you can run for 1 mil a week or two later. Same applies now for the Royal Stakes and Levin Classic, although the stake disparity is not as great 2 Quote
Hesi Posted January 10 Posted January 10 Just adding in yes, the scheduling of many races needs looking at, to not only coincide with the need and the carnivals and big races in NZ, but also the Aus carnivals. Karaka Million is here to stay, in fact it will be held however, whenever and wherever Ellis and Vela want, that's the sort of power they hold over NZ racing (good or bad) In fact if Ellis and Vela wanted infield picnics at Ellerslie on Boxing/NYD and in March, guess what? lol Quote
PWJ Posted January 10 Posted January 10 19 minutes ago, Maximus said: I'm not a great fan of big fields of 2yos anyway, nor of racing them on flint-hard tracks in summer. But fields of 4-7 are not attractive either, unless you own one of 'em and fancy its chances of a Stakes victory. The CD and S Is and non-Karaka 2yos have to get a start and racing experience sometime, though. I'd prefer the Wellesley Stakes to be in the autumn. MM I would prefer it to go back to October where it used to be. Have you got the winner sorted, Max ? It is the first comp race on Saturday Quote
Freda Posted January 10 Posted January 10 27 minutes ago, PWJ said: I would prefer it to go back to October where it used to be. Same. And the Welcome Stakes is also no more, or not in the same form anyway. 1 Quote
Hesi Posted January 10 Posted January 10 3 hours ago, PWJ said: I would prefer it to go back to October where it used to be. Have you got the winner sorted, Max ? It is the first comp race on Saturday Why is it better back where it used to be in Oct Quote
PWJ Posted January 10 Posted January 10 31 minutes ago, Hesi said: Why is it better back where it used to be in Oct It used to draw the best of the early 2yo winners in a stakes race. Black type was a clue to breeders and stallion owners of early performance (precocity). Some very good horses have won the Wellesley in the past - Daryls Joy, Kaapeon, Batavian, Our Maizcay, Sly Wink, Summer Haze, Shifnal Chief, March Legend, Ruud Awakening, Alamosa, etc. 3 1 Quote
Hesi Posted January 10 Posted January 10 In your expert opinion then, what are the positive and negative impacts that Karaka Million is having, and what would you do to counter the negative impacts. Quote
PWJ Posted January 10 Posted January 10 10 minutes ago, Hesi said: In your expert opinion then, what are the positive and negative impacts that Karaka Million is having, and what would you do to counter the negative impacts. I think the proximity to the Karaka Million is hugely negative for the WRC and Wellesley Stakes. The Karaka Million has earned its place in the calendar and should stay put. Others need to work around it. 2 Quote
Hesi Posted January 11 Posted January 11 14 minutes ago, Buller Rep said: PWJ's comments are so succinct, say no more. You're associated with the WRC. What is your view on this 350K Remutaka Classic for R65/75, having a higher stake than the Wellington Cup on the same day Quote
Buller Rep Posted January 12 Posted January 12 22 hours ago, Hesi said: You're associated with the WRC. What is your view on this 350K Remutaka Classic for R65/75, having a higher stake than the Wellington Cup on the same day It's a bit hard for me to be objective because with luck a horse that I have a 15% share in, will be in the field and hopefully it rains, so as to give him a winning chance! Having said that it seems a bit off putting to 'say the least' regarding the stake being more than the Wellington Cup but the Karaka Million is worth more than the Derby and Auckland Cup etc. Furthermore, for me to say that I want rain on Wellington Cup Day is sacrilegious to say the least! If Entain see this as a way to grow the business, who am I to question it. NZ racing is on a roll. You only have to look at Te Akau's spend on the Gold Coast. All of those horses will be educated here in NZ and 90% will race here until it is proven that they are good enough to cross the Tasman. Three years ago all of this would have been a pipe dream. Disclosure; I am not officially involved with the WRC in any capacity these days. I haven't been for 15 years plus, however having done the hard yards I am still a massive supporter. 2 Quote
Hesi Posted January 12 Posted January 12 So your horse is obviously not one of the 6 Golden Ticket winners and therefore exempt. I note also, that NZTR are the sole judge in determining the remainder of the field, is that a first? Hope you are up to date with all your fees then lol 1 Quote
Turny Posted January 13 Posted January 13 PJs comments so true The scheduling needs a full revamp but KM will always hold the Aces. Over the last 5 years we have watched NSW and Vic crash their schedules but seem to have worked through it to reach a semi acceptable programme, certainly the premier stables continue to reap rewards in both States. Not ideal but workable Trentham has a big challenge ahead and maybe a relocation is called for to create a super track in the CD, Foxton maybe Quote
Hesi Posted January 13 Posted January 13 Wellington must get fed up with Ellerslie continuing to usurp their carnival. Perfect example yesterday, Levin Classic, G1 500k and still the top three 3-year-olds are not there. That is what G1 racing is all about, the best of the best racing. Instead aiming for a listed 1.5 million dollar race. I guess you can't blame them. Who is running racing, the people with the most money and power, or the national body. Don't answer that, it was rhetorical. 2 Quote
Hesi Posted January 13 Posted January 13 I note also, that the 4 year old Karaka 1 mil race, that is neither a group or listed race, impacting on the G1 Thorndon, with all the top 3 year olds that are now 4, opting for the race, with today's race as a lead up for several of them 1 Quote
Buller Rep Posted January 14 Posted January 14 11 hours ago, Hesi said: I note also, that the 4 year old Karaka 1 mil race, that is neither a group or listed race, impacting on the G1 Thorndon, with all the top 3 year olds that are now 4, opting for the race, with today's race as a lead up for several of them Yes it's a major problem. It could easily be solved with a shift of the Karaka Sales one week into February, two would be even better and incorporate the NZ Derby.. For what it's worth I thought that between Russel Warwick, then on the ARC, myself [representing the WRC] and Vella we had it done about 16/17 years ago, but as always Vella reneged. It's all about him, his company and no one else, pure and simple. 1 1 Quote
Hesi Posted January 14 Posted January 14 They need to do something, because it is stuffing group racing, which is and has been one of the fundamentals of the sport for a while now, a lot longer than Vela has been around. I posted elsewhere that without the million dollar 4 year old race, you would have had Legarto and a few others that were part of the vintage 3 year old season, racing in your big mile next week 1 Quote
PWJ Posted January 14 Posted January 14 1 hour ago, Hesi said: They need to do something, because it is stuffing group racing, which is and has been one of the fundamentals of the sport for a while now, a lot longer than Vela has been around. I posted elsewhere that without the million dollar 4 year old race, you would have had Legarto and a few others that were part of the vintage 3 year old season, racing in your big mile next week Agreed about the disruption caused to Group Racing. You never see any journalists writing about it (well I have not anyway) but the status of NZ in the Blue Book (the global record of black type status) published by the IRPAC is on the slide and has been for years. I think there are 16 countries - of which NZ is one - in Part One of the Book but if the decline continues it is possible NZ could be relegated to Part 2 (where dwell the likes of Malaysia, Macau, Korea, Turkey, etc) within a decade. The quality of pattern racing is dependent on consistent dates and field quality. Many of these races discussed are suffering badly in field quality. Moving the dates they are scheduled in the Calendar is viewed as make or break by National Stakes bodies. If it does not pay off the race will suffer a downgrade and the status of NZ as a global player will suffer. Part 2 beckons. Stakes Committees in general have a negative view of these restricted million dollar races. The Magic Millions 2YO Classic will never be a Group One under the current rules as a result, nor will The Karaka Million. I am not saying we should not have these races but it is important they do not cause ongoing negative disruption to the black type structure. 2 2 Quote
PWJ Posted January 14 Posted January 14 Interesting Reading NZ Pattern Committee Report 22-23 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. The Pattern Review for races run in the 2022/23 season has been completed by the NZ Pattern Committee (NZPC). The schedule of Group and Listed Races to be run in the 2023/24 season has been finalised. 2. Under the revised schedule, the total number of Pattern flat races scheduled in 2023/24 will decline by 8 races to 142 races. 3. The NZPC has made 2 upgrades, 1 downgrade and 8 removals from the Pattern: Auckland TR, Soliloquy Stakes from G3 to G2 Auckland TR, Mufhasa Stakes from L to G3 Canterbury JC, Stewards Stakes from G3 to L Rotorua RC, Rotorua Challenge Plate to unlisted Feilding JC, Feilding Cup to unlisted Levin RC, Levin Stakes to unlisted Auckland TR, Newmarket Handicap to unlisted Timaru RC, Timaru Cup to unlisted Wellington RC, NZ St Leger to unlisted Riverton JC, Riverton Cup to unlisted Canterbury JC, George Adams Handicap to unlisted 4. In 2022/23, the NZPC formed a sub-committee to conduct a review of the Pattern for the purpose of implementing a substantial reduction in the number of Pattern Races, to return the NZ Pattern towards international norms of 5% or less of total races run. A significant decline in the number of races run in recent seasons has seen the NZ Pattern race percentage increase to over 6%. This was generating international concern and affecting the perceived quality of the NZ Pattern. Further, the NZPC is concerned that it is constrained from promoting worthy races due to an excessive number of existing Pattern races and that this may lead to a calcification of the Pattern. The significant and welcome planned prizemoney increases from 2023/24 onwards, combined with other measures being introduced by NZTR and the wider industry, will have a positive impact in coming seasons. However, as per international trends, an ongoing reduction in 4 the NZ thoroughbred foal crop will likely impact horses available to start. Advice from NZTR is that the balance of these two factors is expected to be a small but steady decline in starter numbers and races run. After carefully considering the recommendations of the NZPC sub- committee and the feedback from affected clubs, the NZPC: i) decided that 8 races be removed from the Pattern; ii) recommended with one exception that if funding constraints allow, these races continue to be funded on a “heritage” basis to minimise the impact on affected clubs; iii) decided that 2 further races be moved straight to “Warning” status with their future to be considered after one more edition; iv) decided that the tolerance level of 3 points from the 100 benchmark for Listed races would be entirely removed across all categories of Listed races; v) noted that the percentage of Pattern races remains over 5% but believes that these quality control measures will bolster confidence in the status of the NZ Pattern. 5. The NZPC strongly endorses the “Heritage” race concept as providing a mechanism to decouple the funding of some races from their Pattern status. This may allow a downgraded race to retain its former prizemoney. This allows the downgrading of races which may not rank strongly from a pure ratings perspective but which are major targets, have considerable historic importance and wide public appeal. NZPC views such races as generally being best suited to be run under handicap conditions. NZPC notes that NZTR supports this concept in principle. 6. The NZPC views the ideal shape of the Pattern as being a pyramid. Continued steady progress towards this is being made. 7. This was the eleventh year that the NZPC has operated under the Asian Pattern Committee (APC) Ground Rules, which were approved by NZTR in consultation with the NZPC and the industry. Any NZ race failing to attain the minimum rating threshold for the first time is likely to be issued with an Alert. In most cases, a Warning will then be issued if the minimum rating has not been achieved in the next edition. If the race meets the required threshold in its next edition, it may then revert to having no Alert or Warning. G1 races that fail to meet their tolerance threshold in three consecutive editions have the merits of the race considered and voted upon by the APC. Any downgrade must be approved by a simple majority of countries. The affected country cannot vote. NZPC had expected this oversight to be extended to G2 races but this has not occurred as yet. G3 and Listed races are automatically downgraded unless a material change in conditions is proposed. Voluntary downgrades by a country may still occur. Any upgrade to G1 status must be voted on by APC member countries. 5 Special factors may be taken into account when considering whether a race should be downgraded and the NZPC has chosen to recognise these at times. These include the ratings of the top 4 rated starters as opposed to the top 4 finishers; the number of G1 winners in the preceding 18 months; unusual track conditions; and the effect on the shape of the Pattern. 8. The APC Ground Rules saw some changes that took effect from the 2022/23 season onwards: A reduction of the 3yo benchmark by 2 points but with the tolerance threshold for 3yo races falling from 3 points to 2 points. The net effect is to reduce the benchmark by 2 points and the tolerance threshold by 1 point from former levels. The NZPC strongly supported this change as being more reflective of the WFA scale and the natural improvement of many horses during and after their 3yo season. Many NZ 3yo’s continue to improve their ratings as older horses, particularly when they race in overseas jurisdictions. While the APC Ground Rules still allow a 3 point tolerance for Listed races, the NZPC views this as an overly generous allowance, which almost every Listed race can meet one year in three. It has therefore decided to entirely remove the tolerance threshold for Listed races to enhance the quality of races at the lower end of the Pattern. To be upgraded, a race’s latest edition and the 3-year average Pattern Race Rating needs to rate at least 2 points over the benchmark for the Group rating for the category above. The staying moratorium on races 2400m or further has been discontinued. Discussions continue regarding potential measures to support this category of races. Covid-19 impacts. In 2022/23, countries could use 3 of the last 4 years of ratings, subject to the rating that is disregarded having had a bona fide impact from Covid-19. Should a race be subject to a downgrade vote, a demonstrable Covid impact would be a factor to be considered. 9. The race rating is determined by the peak World Best Racehorse Ranking (WBRR) that season for the average of the first four finishers in the race. Note that the WBRR has no relationship with the points-based domestic NZ handicap rating and the two measures should not be confused. 10. The NZPC’s concerns with the WBRR ratings assigned to NZ 3yo races escalated during the 2022/23 season. NZ-derived ratings for horses rated >112 are subject to moderation by the APC handicappers. The NZPC holds significant concerns regarding this process. The 2022/23 crop of 3yo’s enjoyed unprecedented success and was regarded as the best in many years by experts across Australia and NZ. Conversely, NZ 6 3yo races in 2022/23 were moderated by APC handicappers to rate at their lowest level in some years. As a starting point, NZ 3yo ratings are at the bottom end of global norms unless the horse performs well overseas in the same season. Further, many NZ horses that race overseas achieve markedly higher ratings as older horses, clearly suggesting their earlier 3yo rating was unduly conservative. Examples abound. The WBRR Race Ratings used to evaluate race quality are appended as Section 6 of this Report. The NZPC decided to formalise a NZ Rating Review panel comprising the NZ Handicapper, a race ratings expert from the NZPC and one from outside the NZPC. This panel will assist in the assessment of WBRR ratings for NZ horses. 11. There are currently 20 races on Alert (21 last year) and 10 races on Warning (7 last year). Quote
Hesi Posted January 14 Posted January 14 1 hour ago, PWJ said: Agreed about the disruption caused to Group Racing. You never see any journalists writing about it (well I have not anyway) but the status of NZ in the Blue Book (the global record of black type status) published by the IRPAC is on the slide and has been for years. I think there are 16 countries - of which NZ is one - in Part One of the Book but if the decline continues it is possible NZ could be relegated to Part 2 (where dwell the likes of Malaysia, Macau, Korea, Turkey, etc) within a decade. The quality of pattern racing is dependent on consistent dates and field quality. Many of these races discussed are suffering badly in field quality. Moving the dates they are scheduled in the Calendar is viewed as make or break by National Stakes bodies. If it does not pay off the race will suffer a downgrade and the status of NZ as a global player will suffer. Part 2 beckons. Stakes Committees in general have a negative view of these restricted million dollar races. The Magic Millions 2YO Classic will never be a Group One under the current rules as a result, nor will The Karaka Million. I am not saying we should not have these races but it is important they do not cause ongoing negative disruption to the black type structure. So the breeders who are behind all this 'millions' stuff, are effectively cutting their own throats, by the disruption to the black type structure, which has been around since the Jockey Club, a few hundred years ago Why do journalists not write about it, because they would be biting the hand that feeds them, in NZ's case the Vela's and Ellis's of the world. The Karaka Million in NZ, really has played havoc with the group races, Royal Stakes, Levin C;lassic, Telegraph, Desert Gold Stakes and probably a few more 3 Quote
Hesi Posted January 14 Posted January 14 Add to that, that Te Akau's best horses will not race in NZ, because they have set up in Victoria, so that will further demean the quality of group racing here. That must have pissed Entain off, especially the timing, as they announced money to underpin NZ racing for the next 5 years. Entain are pouring a lot of money into NZ racing, hopefully to improve fields (some will say it won't work, but that is another debate). I note a few comments that it is not working, but it can't overnight, probably talking about a 2–3-year lag period Quote
Hesi Posted January 14 Posted January 14 While on this subject PJ, do you know the background to the whys and wherefores of the Derby being moved from Boxing Day to March. The Epsom Derby has been raced first week of June, which equates to our 1st week Dec. Quote
mardigras Posted January 14 Posted January 14 5 hours ago, Hesi said: While on this subject PJ, do you know the background to the whys and wherefores of the Derby being moved from Boxing Day to March. The Epsom Derby has been raced first week of June, which equates to our 1st week Dec. Not that the date of the Derby in the UK means anything as to when a race should be run, but I would have though a race in early June in the UK was the equivalent of a race in early January in NZ. The Vic Derby is held early November, the NSW Derby, SA Derby, WA Derby held in Autumn. And the Tasmanian Derby usually held late summer. There are many that believe the VRC Derby is too soon. And the majority prefer to wait until Autumn to give the horse time to develop in Australia. UK racing is entirely different where they race over longer distances much earlier on - including their 2yos. 1 Quote
Freda Posted January 14 Posted January 14 I don't know all the reasons, but I imagine, from the chat around the time, that one was to do with the attempt by the ARC - Weaver, at the time - to create a carnival that could rival Cup week in ChCh. So, shift the Derby to frank the carnival. Another which attracted discussion, was the notion that later in the season made it a better option for the 3 year olds, many of which were simply not up to a Derby prep so early in their racing lives. However in the discussion that ensued, one man made a point which made a lot of sense to me. Namely, that as the classics were meant to determine the best of any crop, and as the Derby pretty much stood at the top of that particular tree, to make it 'easier' for a possibly lesser quality individual to compete in that classic actually undermined the point of the exercise. Colin Jillings' handling of The Phantom Chance stands out for me..a horse which was clearly immature as a three year old, handled by a master to nurse him to his Derby win, and which showed later just what a good horse he was. Graduates of the later running of the classic haven't, IMHO, really stood out as topliners consistently so he may have been right. 4 Quote
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