WELLESLEY STAKES

[ngakonui grass]

8 ACCEPTORS.we need programmes to be looked at seriously.

[Hesi]

Traditionally in the last 11 years, has not drawn large fields, 8, 7, 8 Not run, 5, 10, 7, 5, 10, 9, 8, even when run in late Oct

Probably now just a race for CD horses and those not eligible for Karaka.  If you are eligible, then you are certainly not going to run for 80K when you can run for 1 mil a week or two later.

Same applies now for the Royal Stakes and Levin Classic, although the stake disparity is not as great

[Hesi]

Just adding in yes, the scheduling of many races needs looking at, to not only coincide with the need and the carnivals and big races in NZ, but also the Aus carnivals.

Karaka Million is here to stay, in fact it will be held however, whenever and wherever Ellis and Vela want, that's the sort of power they hold over NZ racing (good or bad)

In fact if Ellis and Vela wanted infield picnics at Ellerslie on Boxing/NYD and in March, guess what? lol

[Maximus]

I'm not a great fan of big fields of 2yos anyway, nor of racing them on flint-hard tracks in summer.  But fields of 4-7 are not attractive either, unless you own one of 'em and fancy its chances of a Stakes victory. The CD and S Is and non-Karaka 2yos have to get a start and racing experience sometime, though. I'd prefer the Wellesley Stakes to be in the autumn.

MM 

[PWJ]

19 minutes ago, Maximus said:

I'm not a great fan of big fields of 2yos anyway, nor of racing them on flint-hard tracks in summer.  But fields of 4-7 are not attractive either, unless you own one of 'em and fancy its chances of a Stakes victory. The CD and S Is and non-Karaka 2yos have to get a start and racing experience sometime, though. I'd prefer the Wellesley Stakes to be in the autumn.

MM 

I would prefer it to go back to October where it used to be. Have you got the winner sorted, Max ? It is the first comp race on Saturday

[Freda]

27 minutes ago, PWJ said:

I would prefer it to go back to October where it used to be. 

Same.  And the Welcome Stakes is also no more, or not in the same form anyway.

[Hesi]

3 hours ago, PWJ said:

I would prefer it to go back to October where it used to be. Have you got the winner sorted, Max ? It is the first comp race on Saturday

Why is it better back where it used to be in Oct

[PWJ]

31 minutes ago, Hesi said:

Why is it better back where it used to be in Oct

It used to draw the best of the early 2yo winners in a stakes race. Black type was a clue to breeders and stallion owners of early performance (precocity). Some very good horses have won the Wellesley in the past - Daryls Joy, Kaapeon, Batavian, Our Maizcay, Sly Wink, Summer Haze,  Shifnal Chief, March Legend, Ruud Awakening, Alamosa, etc.

[Hesi]

In your expert opinion then, what are the positive and negative impacts that Karaka Million is having, and what would you do to counter the negative impacts.  

[PWJ]

10 minutes ago, Hesi said:

In your expert opinion then, what are the positive and negative impacts that Karaka Million is having, and what would you do to counter the negative impacts.  

I think the proximity to the Karaka Million is hugely negative for the WRC and Wellesley Stakes. The Karaka Million has earned its place in the calendar and should stay put. Others need to work around it.

[Buller Rep]

PWJ's comments are so succinct, say no more.

 

[Hesi]

14 minutes ago, Buller Rep said:

PWJ's comments are so succinct, say no more.

 

You're associated with the WRC.  What is your view on this 350K Remutaka Classic for R65/75, having a higher stake than the Wellington Cup on the same day

[Buller Rep]

22 hours ago, Hesi said:

You're associated with the WRC.  What is your view on this 350K Remutaka Classic for R65/75, having a higher stake than the Wellington Cup on the same day

It's a bit hard for me to be objective because with luck a horse that I have a 15% share in, will be in the field and hopefully it rains, so as to give him a winning chance!

Having said that it seems a bit off putting to 'say the least' regarding the stake being more than the Wellington Cup but the Karaka Million is worth more than the Derby and Auckland Cup etc.

Furthermore, for me to say that I want rain on Wellington Cup Day is sacrilegious to say the least! 

If Entain see this as a way to grow the business, who am I to question it.

NZ racing is on a roll. You only have to look at Te Akau's spend on the Gold Coast. All of those horses will be educated here in NZ and 90% will race here until it is proven that they are good enough to cross the Tasman.

Three years ago all of this would have been a pipe dream.

Disclosure; I am not officially involved with the WRC in any capacity these days. I haven't been for 15 years plus, however having done the hard yards I am still a massive supporter.

[Hesi]

So your horse is obviously not one of the 6 Golden Ticket winners and therefore exempt.

I note also, that NZTR are the sole judge in determining the remainder of the field, is that a first?

Hope you are up to date with all your fees then lol

[Turny]

PJs comments so true

The scheduling needs a full revamp but KM will always hold the Aces.

Over the last 5 years we have watched NSW and Vic crash their schedules but seem to have worked through it to reach a semi acceptable programme, certainly the premier stables continue to reap rewards in both States. Not ideal but workable

Trentham has a big challenge ahead and maybe a relocation is called for to create a super track in the CD, Foxton maybe 

[Hesi]

Wellington must get fed up with Ellerslie continuing to usurp their carnival.

Perfect example yesterday, Levin Classic, G1 500k and still the top three 3-year-olds are not there.  

That is what G1 racing is all about, the best of the best racing.  Instead aiming for a listed 1.5 million dollar race.  I guess you can't blame them.

Who is running racing, the people with the most money and power, or the national body.  Don't answer that, it was rhetorical.

[Hesi]

I note also, that the 4 year old Karaka 1 mil race, that is neither a group or listed race, impacting on the G1 Thorndon, with all the top 3 year olds that are now 4, opting for the race, with today's race as a lead up for several of them

[Buller Rep]

11 hours ago, Hesi said:

I note also, that the 4 year old Karaka 1 mil race, that is neither a group or listed race, impacting on the G1 Thorndon, with all the top 3 year olds that are now 4, opting for the race, with today's race as a lead up for several of them

Yes it's a major problem. It could easily be solved with a shift of the Karaka Sales one week into February, two would be even better and incorporate the NZ Derby.. 

For what it's worth I thought that between Russel Warwick, then on the ARC, myself [representing the WRC] and Vella we had it done about 16/17 years ago, but as always Vella reneged.

It's all about him, his company and no one else, pure and simple.

[Hesi]

They need to do something, because it is stuffing group racing, which is and has been one of the fundamentals of the sport for a while now, a lot longer than Vela has been around.  I posted elsewhere that without the million dollar 4 year old race, you would have had Legarto and a few others that were part of the vintage 3 year old season, racing in your big mile next week

[PWJ]

1 hour ago, Hesi said:

They need to do something, because it is stuffing group racing, which is and has been one of the fundamentals of the sport for a while now, a lot longer than Vela has been around.  I posted elsewhere that without the million dollar 4 year old race, you would have had Legarto and a few others that were part of the vintage 3 year old season, racing in your big mile next week

Agreed about the disruption caused to Group Racing. You never see any journalists writing about it (well I have not anyway) but the status of NZ in the Blue Book (the global record of black type status) published by the IRPAC is on the slide and has been for years. I think there are 16 countries - of which NZ is one - in Part One of the Book but if the decline continues it is possible NZ could be relegated to Part 2 (where dwell the likes of Malaysia, Macau, Korea, Turkey, etc) within a decade.

The quality of pattern racing is dependent on consistent dates and field quality. Many of these races discussed are suffering badly in field quality. Moving the dates they are scheduled in the Calendar is viewed as make or break by National Stakes bodies. If it does not pay off the race will suffer a downgrade and the status of NZ as a global player will suffer. Part 2 beckons.

Stakes Committees in general have a negative view of these restricted million dollar races. The Magic Millions 2YO Classic will never be a Group One under the current rules as a result, nor will The Karaka Million. I am not saying we should not have these races but it is important they do not cause ongoing negative disruption to the black type structure.

[PWJ]

Interesting Reading

NZ Pattern Committee Report 22-23

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. The Pattern Review for races run in the 2022/23 season has been
completed by the NZ Pattern Committee (NZPC). The schedule of Group
and Listed Races to be run in the 2023/24 season has been finalised.
2. Under the revised schedule, the total number of Pattern flat races
scheduled in 2023/24 will decline by 8 races to 142 races.
3. The NZPC has made 2 upgrades, 1 downgrade and 8 removals from the
Pattern:
Auckland TR, Soliloquy Stakes from G3 to G2
Auckland TR, Mufhasa Stakes from L to G3
Canterbury JC, Stewards Stakes from G3 to L
Rotorua RC, Rotorua Challenge Plate to unlisted
Feilding JC, Feilding Cup to unlisted
Levin RC, Levin Stakes to unlisted
Auckland TR, Newmarket Handicap to unlisted
Timaru RC, Timaru Cup to unlisted
Wellington RC, NZ St Leger to unlisted
Riverton JC, Riverton Cup to unlisted
Canterbury JC, George Adams Handicap to unlisted
4. In 2022/23, the NZPC formed a sub-committee to conduct a review of
the Pattern for the purpose of implementing a substantial reduction in the
number of Pattern Races, to return the NZ Pattern towards international
norms of 5% or less of total races run.
A significant decline in the number of races run in recent seasons has
seen the NZ Pattern race percentage increase to over 6%. This was
generating international concern and affecting the perceived quality of
the NZ Pattern. Further, the NZPC is concerned that it is constrained
from promoting worthy races due to an excessive number of existing
Pattern races and that this may lead to a calcification of the Pattern.
The significant and welcome planned prizemoney increases from
2023/24 onwards, combined with other measures being introduced by
NZTR and the wider industry, will have a positive impact in coming
seasons. However, as per international trends, an ongoing reduction in
4
the NZ thoroughbred foal crop will likely impact horses available to start.
Advice from NZTR is that the balance of these two factors is expected to
be a small but steady decline in starter numbers and races run.
After carefully considering the recommendations of the NZPC sub-
committee and the feedback from affected clubs, the NZPC: i) decided
that 8 races be removed from the Pattern; ii) recommended with one
exception that if funding constraints allow, these races continue to be
funded on a “heritage” basis to minimise the impact on affected clubs; iii)
decided that 2 further races be moved straight to “Warning” status with
their future to be considered after one more edition; iv) decided that the
tolerance level of 3 points from the 100 benchmark for Listed races
would be entirely removed across all categories of Listed races; v) noted
that the percentage of Pattern races remains over 5% but believes that
these quality control measures will bolster confidence in the status of the
NZ Pattern.
5. The NZPC strongly endorses the “Heritage” race concept as providing a
mechanism to decouple the funding of some races from their Pattern
status. This may allow a downgraded race to retain its former
prizemoney. This allows the downgrading of races which may not rank
strongly from a pure ratings perspective but which are major targets,
have considerable historic importance and wide public appeal. NZPC
views such races as generally being best suited to be run under
handicap conditions. NZPC notes that NZTR supports this concept in
principle.
6. The NZPC views the ideal shape of the Pattern as being a pyramid.
Continued steady progress towards this is being made.
7. This was the eleventh year that the NZPC has operated under the Asian
Pattern Committee (APC) Ground Rules, which were approved by NZTR
in consultation with the NZPC and the industry.
Any NZ race failing to attain the minimum rating threshold for the first
time is likely to be issued with an Alert. In most cases, a Warning will
then be issued if the minimum rating has not been achieved in the next
edition. If the race meets the required threshold in its next edition, it may
then revert to having no Alert or Warning.
G1 races that fail to meet their tolerance threshold in three consecutive
editions have the merits of the race considered and voted upon by the
APC. Any downgrade must be approved by a simple majority of
countries. The affected country cannot vote. NZPC had expected this
oversight to be extended to G2 races but this has not occurred as yet.
G3 and Listed races are automatically downgraded unless a material
change in conditions is proposed. Voluntary downgrades by a country
may still occur. Any upgrade to G1 status must be voted on by APC
member countries.
5
Special factors may be taken into account when considering whether a
race should be downgraded and the NZPC has chosen to recognise
these at times. These include the ratings of the top 4 rated starters as
opposed to the top 4 finishers; the number of G1 winners in the
preceding 18 months; unusual track conditions; and the effect on the
shape of the Pattern.
8. The APC Ground Rules saw some changes that took effect from the
2022/23 season onwards:
A reduction of the 3yo benchmark by 2 points but with the tolerance
threshold for 3yo races falling from 3 points to 2 points. The net effect is
to reduce the benchmark by 2 points and the tolerance threshold by 1
point from former levels. The NZPC strongly supported this change as
being more reflective of the WFA scale and the natural improvement of
many horses during and after their 3yo season. Many NZ 3yo’s continue
to improve their ratings as older horses, particularly when they race in
overseas jurisdictions.
While the APC Ground Rules still allow a 3 point tolerance for Listed
races, the NZPC views this as an overly generous allowance, which
almost every Listed race can meet one year in three. It has therefore
decided to entirely remove the tolerance threshold for Listed races to
enhance the quality of races at the lower end of the Pattern.
To be upgraded, a race’s latest edition and the 3-year average Pattern
Race Rating needs to rate at least 2 points over the benchmark for the
Group rating for the category above.
The staying moratorium on races 2400m or further has been
discontinued. Discussions continue regarding potential measures to
support this category of races.
Covid-19 impacts. In 2022/23, countries could use 3 of the last 4 years
of ratings, subject to the rating that is disregarded having had a bona
fide impact from Covid-19. Should a race be subject to a downgrade
vote, a demonstrable Covid impact would be a factor to be considered.
9. The race rating is determined by the peak World Best Racehorse
Ranking (WBRR) that season for the average of the first four finishers in
the race. Note that the WBRR has no relationship with the points-based
domestic NZ handicap rating and the two measures should not be
confused.
10. The NZPC’s concerns with the WBRR ratings assigned to NZ 3yo races
escalated during the 2022/23 season. NZ-derived ratings for horses
rated >112 are subject to moderation by the APC handicappers. The
NZPC holds significant concerns regarding this process. The 2022/23
crop of 3yo’s enjoyed unprecedented success and was regarded as the
best in many years by experts across Australia and NZ. Conversely, NZ
6
3yo races in 2022/23 were moderated by APC handicappers to rate at
their lowest level in some years.
As a starting point, NZ 3yo ratings are at the bottom end of global norms
unless the horse performs well overseas in the same season. Further,
many NZ horses that race overseas achieve markedly higher ratings as
older horses, clearly suggesting their earlier 3yo rating was unduly
conservative. Examples abound. The WBRR Race Ratings used to
evaluate race quality are appended as Section 6 of this Report.
The NZPC decided to formalise a NZ Rating Review panel comprising
the NZ Handicapper, a race ratings expert from the NZPC and one from
outside the NZPC. This panel will assist in the assessment of WBRR
ratings for NZ horses.
11. There are currently 20 races on Alert (21 last year) and 10 races on
Warning (7 last year).

[Hesi]

1 hour ago, PWJ said:

Agreed about the disruption caused to Group Racing. You never see any journalists writing about it (well I have not anyway) but the status of NZ in the Blue Book (the global record of black type status) published by the IRPAC is on the slide and has been for years. I think there are 16 countries - of which NZ is one - in Part One of the Book but if the decline continues it is possible NZ could be relegated to Part 2 (where dwell the likes of Malaysia, Macau, Korea, Turkey, etc) within a decade.

The quality of pattern racing is dependent on consistent dates and field quality. Many of these races discussed are suffering badly in field quality. Moving the dates they are scheduled in the Calendar is viewed as make or break by National Stakes bodies. If it does not pay off the race will suffer a downgrade and the status of NZ as a global player will suffer. Part 2 beckons.

Stakes Committees in general have a negative view of these restricted million dollar races. The Magic Millions 2YO Classic will never be a Group One under the current rules as a result, nor will The Karaka Million. I am not saying we should not have these races but it is important they do not cause ongoing negative disruption to the black type structure.

So the breeders who are behind all this 'millions' stuff, are effectively cutting their own throats, by the disruption to the black type structure, which has been around since the Jockey Club, a few hundred years ago

Why do journalists not write about it, because they would be biting the hand that feeds them, in NZ's case the Vela's and Ellis's of the world.

The Karaka Million in NZ, really has played havoc with the group races, Royal Stakes, Levin C;lassic, Telegraph, Desert Gold Stakes and probably a few more

[Hesi]

Add to that, that Te Akau's best horses will not race in NZ, because they have set up in Victoria, so that will further demean the quality of group racing here.  That must have pissed Entain off, especially the timing, as they announced money to underpin NZ racing for the next 5 years.

Entain are pouring a lot of money into NZ racing, hopefully to improve fields (some will say it won't work, but that is another debate).  I note a few comments that it is not working, but it can't overnight, probably talking about a 2–3-year lag period

[Hesi]

While on this subject PJ, do you know the background to the whys and wherefores of the Derby being moved from Boxing Day to March.

The Epsom Derby has been raced first week of June, which equates to our 1st week Dec.

[mardigras]

5 hours ago, Hesi said:

While on this subject PJ, do you know the background to the whys and wherefores of the Derby being moved from Boxing Day to March.

The Epsom Derby has been raced first week of June, which equates to our 1st week Dec.

Not that the date of the Derby in the UK means anything as to when a race should be run, but I would have though a race in early June in the UK was the equivalent of a race in early January in NZ.

The Vic Derby is held early November, the NSW Derby, SA Derby, WA Derby held in Autumn. And the Tasmanian Derby usually held late summer.

There are many that believe the VRC Derby is too soon. And the majority prefer to wait until Autumn to give the horse time to develop in Australia. UK racing is entirely different where they race over longer distances much earlier on - including their 2yos.