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Covid - GDP


mardigras
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Interesting reading some of the stuff about the impacts of lockdowns compared to the impacts of Covid itself.

And as I have maintained from the beginning, I don't support large scale lockdowns beyond the initial lockdown. That gave us time to understand things better and work out a future strategy. But to me, the first lockdown was absolutely the right thing to do.

Below are the GDP figures sourced from each country in areas around Sweden. (Sweden, then Norway then Finland). Pretty similar GDP components/cultures.

SwedenGDP.jpg.c9ba6a2463f8239fa5b0288cf035d529.jpgNorwayGDP.jpg.6a6f6f32c95aab920d6252a5d6681627.jpgFinlandGDP.jpg.645001371725ca87b2731e5ee56bfdd0.jpg

 

Current cases & deaths (per million people) for the three.

Sweden - 14,000 cases, 593 deaths

Norway - 4,222 cases, 52 deaths

Finland - 3,088 cases, 65 deaths

I also read early on that lockdowns were a poor idea - and then went on to use Slovenia as an example of how it could be done a lot better.

Slovenia didn't really have a massive Covid case load during the initial phase. 

Slovenia with it's population of only 2 million, has been averaging of late around 2,000 cases per day and 20 deaths per day. They have now amassed over 40,000 cases and 471 deaths. And how is there GDP looking? Pretty good example of what NZ should have done for sure.

SloveniaGDP.jpg.b0bc1f93ef5f63bd4217b6a32f254206.jpg

 

Edited by mardigras
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Countries that didn't do that early lock down properly are now having to go into nationwide lockdown.  The mother country UK.

The doom and gloom predicted for NZ, has been a lot milder than the 'experts ' said.  Last quarter unemployment at 5.3%

 

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The counter put up in NZ and elsewhere, is that the lock down saved lives, but many more  lost their lives through suicides due to the economic downturn, and waiting for health services that were not available because of the lock down.  Data on both those yet to be verified.

I'm not sure how you counter that

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5 minutes ago, Hesi said:

The counter put up in NZ and elsewhere, is that the lock down saved lives, but many more  lost their lives through suicides due to the economic downturn, and waiting for health services that were not available because of the lock down.  Data on both those yet to be verified.

I'm not sure how you counter that

Unknowns - but what would make people believe that if the lockdown didn't happen, the very same people wouldn't face the same economic issues, or indeed other issues brought about by fear etc. Or that the availability of health services wouldn't have been affected (due to unavailable capacity due to not having the lockdown and what that may have caused). Health services that weren't available due to lockdown, may not have been available without lockdown.

Most of the US isn't in lockdown, the economic impacts have been reported as being huge. Job losses massive - is that not going to cause some to face extreme issues due to economic downturn?

It is all speculation about whether those items would or wouldn't have occurred. Perhaps data from Sweden etc would provide insight into what happened in regards those metrics - it has been reported that the number of excess deaths in Sweden (compared to prior years), is well beyond the number of deaths being attributed to Covid. What are they due to?

Most of the anti-lockdown proponents have presented arguments such as that. Such as people are dying because of lockdown (suicides, health services), and that the economy is being severely impacted because of lockdown. They are all subjective as they don't present the impacts of these things compared to the situation of no lockdown. They just claim they exist.

The biggest issue to economies is likely to come from border controls and fear - and of course prolonged lockdown is going to have an effect once the honeymoon period is over.

The comparison such as I put up between the neighbours of Sweden, Norway and Finland tend to suggest that the lockdown some of them experienced, hasn't had a big impact on their economies compared to similar countries that didn't lockdown.

Certainly deaths from Covid is materially different between those countries however. Perhaps when we see the excess death rates of Sweden, Norway and Finland during this period, we will get a picture of the 'unknown' impact from Covid. I think that would have come to light already if Norway and Finland had been suffering excess deaths at the rate of 500+ per million people over this time given that is how far below Sweden they are when it comes to deaths attributed to Covid. I don't see that as being likely.

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  • 1 month later...

Before the election, Treasury was forecasting a brief dip in house prices. Having been proved well and truly wrong, it is now expecting rampant house price growth over the next five years.

Next year, prices are expected to grow four times faster than wages and five times faster than the economy as a whole, rising 8.5 per cent.

House price growth will slow but will run at about twice the speed of wages and the economy as a whole for the next four years. Treasury is pegging growth of above 5 per cent a year every year until 2025. The one exception is 2022, when it is forecasting 4.5 per cent growth.

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A bit like retrospectively picking winners, it's easy

1.  100,000 kiwis coming back home, because the rest of the world is infested with Covid, all flush with money, all looking for upmarket housing

2.  Borders shut, meaning billions not spent on overseas jaunts, a lot going into coastal properties or investment property speculation.

3.  Term deposit rates so low, that no point

4.  Interest rates at 2.5%, means you could borrow truckloads of money if you had the income and equity.  A jump back to 5% which a few years ago would be seen as luxury, will see many people in a predicament

Easy, just like making a case for Simon de Montfort winning the Wellington Cup..........after it had been run

Thommo and a few others are experts at it

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 1/5/2021 at 9:36 AM, Hesi said:

Of Pom heritage as a few on here are, so saddening to see the worsening situation in the UK and Scotland, both countries going into full lock down, remember that

While we enjoy almost total freedom to enjoy our lives, including Racing

They had taken a light approach from the start. Ineffective policy. Might as well have done what Sweden did.

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1 hour ago, Hesi said:

Any thoughts on how the vaccines that have been developed will affect the situation with respect to NZ.

Can't see NZ opening it's borders any time soon, for countries that have a full vaccination programm in place

Don't see any changes here due to vaccines for ages. I thought NZ weren't even planning on starting vaccinations for Covid until June or July at the earliest. Most overseas aren't expecting their vaccination programs to be complete by the middle of the year anyway. 

So I've pretty much locked this year away as an option for overseas travel, outside of maybe Australia if I want to see my kids. NZ are going to be cautious and by September, we are starting to head towards the NH winter again, and NZ government will be mindful of that, and how that may play out.

Edited by mardigras
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  • 1 month later...
  • 3 weeks later...

There seems to be a lot of negatives about the government action on Covid - I'd agree to a certain extent. I think they could have done better with less impact on a higher number of people.

But I guess we should be grateful that NZ didn't listen to the Covid Plan B group.

I don't see widespread lockdowns as a long term answer, but they were a free hit at the start. Something the Covid Plan B group simply couldn't understand.

These are the people that cited things such as Slovenia as an example of why we should have opened our borders - a government who supposedly stated the epidemic is over back in June - and their approach fully supported by Plan B.

Interestingly, Slovenia now has the third highest recorded Covid deaths per million in the world for all countries with a population over 1 million (just behind Czech and Belgium). And a GDP that took a bigger hit than NZ for last year.  What a great idea. Bigger economic hit, and the equivalent of over 9000 deaths in NZ - around 20 times the annual flu death rate here.

The problem with Covid Plan B is they simply make shit up from one day to the next to formulate an evolving story. When the old story doesn't work out, they simply change the story to a new one.

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Yes, we could of had a list of people we are glad were not managing the Covid response in NZ

Covid Plan B group

Brian Tamaki

The Swedish chief virologist

Billy Te Kahika

Many of the nut jobs that post on social media, that call Covid a hoax

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1 hour ago, ngakonui grass said:

My Question is....How can we have a BREAKING NEWS ALERT on our media every day.

Surely by now ir should be listed as a regular programme or to be cynical a Labour Party Broadcast.

I'd call it a labour party broadcast. Who on earth watches/reads/listens to that. I'd rather watch paint dry.

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4 hours ago, mardigras said:

I'd call it a labour party broadcast. Who on earth watches/reads/listens to that. I'd rather watch paint dry.

In the small circle of friends i move in it appears to be a daily must watch.Doom merchants the lot of them.Must listen to the Messiah

People predicting the worlds end is common place.

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1 hour ago, ngakonui grass said:

In the small circle of friends i move in it appears to be a daily must watch.Doom merchants the lot of them.Must listen to the Messiah

People predicting the worlds end is common place.

Have you introduced them to the theatre of paint drying - sounds like they'd be pleasantly surprised.

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You guys should easily  be able  to  kick this new community  outbreak into touch! 7 day lockdown Phfft!(try 340 odd days😷).With a small population and the right testing protocol  in place, borders closed on an island in the Pacific,simples!

My only question is... where is the "mother ship", case -1 A ?

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  • 5 months later...

How times change.18 months ago all the American media outlets(except FOX) were calling for Cuomo"s name to be included in the Democratic ballot for POTUS.Now he would be lucky to be elected President of the toilet cleaners union. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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were wishing that Cuomo was on the Presidential ballot.

Now its hard to imagine him even being the President of the toilet cleaners union.

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