Hesi Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Have I missed something, a few questions 1. Why are all the races $12,000, from maiden to open class 2. Why would you send Royal Performer and Demonetization, with over a million in earnings between them, around in a $12K race 3. Why are Pukekohe putting up such miserable stakes. I thought they had combined with Ellerslie to raise stake money 4. Why is Canny Man in 3 different 1400m races Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Simple, just reflecting our current NZ racing status. Enjoy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 58 minutes ago, Hesi said: 4. Why is Canny Man in 3 different 1400m races He's fit and ready to go. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted November 10, 2021 Author Share Posted November 10, 2021 Didn't they used to run in more than one race on the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Hesi said: Didn't they used to run in more than one race on the day yep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 19 minutes ago, mardigras said: He's fit and ready to go. prob cos if he accepted for just one and got a wide draw /and/or a big strong field, they;d wish he'd accepted for both or all three he's eligibly for. Cost-effective way to increase yer chances if you think any of that matters (it generally does). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted November 10, 2021 Author Share Posted November 10, 2021 Imagine if all the trainers did that, what a shambles it would be Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Hesi said: Have I missed something, a few questions 1. Why are all the races $12,000, from maiden to open class 2. Why would you send Royal Performer and Demonetization, with over a million in earnings between them, around in a $12K race 3. Why are Pukekohe putting up such miserable stakes. I thought they had combined with Ellerslie to raise stake money 4. Why is Canny Man in 3 different 1400m races They're going back to the glory days. Remember $10,000 day? Unfortunately it should be $100,000 day in today's money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 (edited) About 40 years ago it used to be $20k day, it might’ve even gone to $30k day a few years later, I remember thinking at the time wow what will this day be like in another 20 or so years, well it’s been 40 years now, and I have my answer. Shit time flys 40 years ago Edited November 10, 2021 by VC! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted November 10, 2021 Author Share Posted November 10, 2021 Just now, VC! said: About 30 years ago it used to be $20k day, it might’ve even gone to $30k day a few years later, I remember thinking at the time wow what will this day be like in another 20 or so years, well it’s been 30 years now, and I have my answer. Yes it got to $30K day in the 90;s, and the fields were superb, with $7-8 faves Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Maximus said: prob cos if he accepted for just one and got a wide draw /and/or a big strong field, they;d wish he'd accepted for both or all three he's eligibly for. Cost-effective way to increase yer chances if you think any of that matters (it generally does). It seems to matter to you. Wide draw - zero factor in relation to chance according to data for nearly all tracks/distances/conditions. Better/bigger field - well that affects chance so yes, could be a consideration since owners race for the stake and winning is the ideal. Hard part there is working out how to to assess their horse's chance? May well have a better chance in a bigger field. Or a bigger chance in a stronger and smaller field. I'd run in all 3. I love it when I read on here views about having a good draw. I don't know what a good draw is versus a bad draw. Verry Elleegant in the Melbourne Cup and Incentivise in the Caulfield Cup. Punters went off them both, and it made no difference - except to price. imagine the devastation when VE ended up in barrier 18 - never won the cup before. What a laugh, people actually follow that kind of idea. Edited November 10, 2021 by mardigras 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 28 minutes ago, mardigras said: imagine the devastation when VE ended up in barrier 18 - never won the cup before. What a laugh, people actually follow that kind of idea. Geez lucky my bets were on when she drew 19, I was backing her regardless of barrier, one of the really good points that you have put across over the last couple of years is disregarding barriers, I like the point you made about how a horse can gather momentum often quicker when they have drawn wider, often with an inside barrier their momentum is stop start 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, VC! said: Geez lucky my bets were on when she drew 19, I was backing her regardless of barrier, one of the really good points that you have put across over the last couple of years is disregarding barriers, I like the point you made about how a horse can gather momentum often quicker when they have drawn wider, often with an inside barrier their momentum is stop start And amazing how she went from 14.5 antepost (not even assured to start) to 27s final field. Incentivise went from 2.40 antepost to 3s final field in the Caulfield Cup. They are massive views on the impact of barriers from punters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 (edited) So many people say to me anything can win the race, how wrong they are I eliminated 16 out of the 23 I actually found the race easier this year I found it difficult to back VE with confidence early on not knowing their intentions, her late drift was amazing, she got smashed on the turn last year, her last 200 was terrific, they had intended taking her to France, they played their cards perfectly saying they weren’t sure if she’d line up The ride was top shelf, I had people cheering Incentivise at the 600 but she was travelling like the winner at the 600, it was a great watch, the first 3 home were clearly superior Hopefully next year we see a few more European’s I think ever since you posted to ignore barriers and weight, it has helped stop my clouded judgement I think more people should take note, I have no doubt that wide barriers actually aid value Edited November 10, 2021 by VC! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, VC! said: The ride was top shelf, I had people cheering Incentivise at the 600 but she was travelling like the winner at the 600, it was a great watch, the first 3 home were clearly superior Yes, she was going well and positioned brilliantly. Spanish Mission was going pretty well, but nothing like her. Incentivise showed that he is a serious racehorse. It was a great effort. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted November 10, 2021 Author Share Posted November 10, 2021 I think a lot of people thought VE was not quite up to it this season, after a 4th in The Turnbull and 3rd in the Cox Plate, both on her preferred rain affected ground Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 (edited) To clarify my earlier comments re Canny Man being an acceptor in all three 1400m races. Connections would assess the relative merits of the field quality, size and CM's draw in each case. Wide draw not necessarily a problem, perhaps a better word would be 'suitable' in the opinion of the people paying the bills/training the horse. Some horses have no early speed so cant take up handy spot from an inside draw and settle back anyway. In CM's case, I'm curious to know why he and Irish Gambler are the two emergencies in all three races they're acceptors for. I read somewhere this raceday at Pukekohe is to 'play catch up' after lockdown interfering with Auckland-trained horses, so this is an extra 'industry day' put on at short notice with $12k stakes for all races and a max of 8 starters per race. Something like that anyway. As for the example of VE's draw in the Melbourne Cup, anyone with a racing brain knows that a wide draw is not necessarily a problem over 2 miles, but it would be over 1000m-1200m at some tracks eg Ellerslie, Te Awamutu, Rotorua, Matamata... more than the 'straight six' at Flemington. Obvious reasons. MM PS: CM is trained outside Auckland region, so I'd suggest that's the reason: it only gets a start if the max field size (8) is not reached in any of those three 1400m maidens. Edited November 10, 2021 by Maximus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Hesi said: I think a lot of people thought VE was not quite up to it this season, after a 4th in The Turnbull and 3rd in the Cox Plate, both on her preferred rain affected ground i was one of them, to my eternal shame, and the 57kg put me off over that trip; in hindsight she was just a tad more 'dour' cos her prep was for a two-mile grand final. True champions can carry big weights and she is indeed one of the best of the modern era. Edited November 10, 2021 by Maximus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 (edited) 8 hours ago, Maximus said: As for the example of VE's draw in the Melbourne Cup, anyone with a racing brain knows that a wide draw is not necessarily a problem over 2 miles, but it would be over 1000m-1200m at some tracks eg Ellerslie, Te Awamutu, Rotorua, Matamata... more than the 'straight six' at Flemington. Obvious reasons. I don't know what you mean by a racing brain - since most punters believe things in racing that don't stack up. Barriers are massively overstated in punting. There is very little impact to outcome from barriers. Of those tracks, there would be a slight advantage to the barrier at Ellerslie - however, you would probably need to evaluate chance of the runners at wide barriers to see whether it relates to barrier or simply more horses with less chance starting from those barriers - given as barrier increases, you get to the point of fewer horses starting from those barriers easily skewing results (same applies to all such stats). Here are the details I have on those tracks for distances <= 1230 (Rotorua has a number of races at odd distances around 1200m). Of course, my data is not complete, but is still extensive. The Expected wins column is simply the sum of 1/starters for each race. So ignoring the specific horse and just giving them equal chance on barrier. So a horse in a 5 horse field would be expected to win 1/5 (20% of the time), and a horse in a 14 horse field 1 race out of 14. So bigger fields (where bigger barriers are involved), each horse has a lower expected chance of winning than in a small field. Ellerslie shows a slight advantage, the other tracks, any advantage is miniscule. Edited November 10, 2021 by mardigras 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 1 hour ago, barryb said: Mardi, do you have the starting price info as well?. yep. I'll put that out soon - using punter assessed chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted November 10, 2021 Author Share Posted November 10, 2021 14 hours ago, Hesi said: Have I missed something, a few questions 1. Why are all the races $12,000, from maiden to open class 2. Why would you send Royal Performer and Demonetization, with over a million in earnings between them, around in a $12K race 3. Why are Pukekohe putting up such miserable stakes. I thought they had combined with Ellerslie to raise stake money 4. Why is Canny Man in 3 different 1400m races Probably explains a few things MEETING NEWS ATR Meeting at Pukekohe – 11 November A reminder that at this meeting preference will be given to horses trained in the Auckland region (North of the hard border). Weights for this meeting will be incremented 1kg at acceptance time. This was decided after consultation with both the jockeys’ and trainers’ associations. Maximum field sizes will be eight runners and the maximum number of races will be 10. Nominations close with the NRB at midday Monday 8 November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 (edited) Here is the same table using betfair price data as an indicator of chance. This is using a price just prior to start (not SP, as SP wasn't always available on NZ racing). Less runners due to not having Betfair pricing data on all races. And also to note, the markets on NZ racing are not anywhere near 100% especially a few years back - and a lot of the excess market % was in the longer priced runners, which inflates the supposed chance of longer priced runners more so than those facing more competitive betting. This shows a clear shift punting wise towards inner barriers compared to an equal chance on barrier. But the shift does not relate to outcomes. Edited November 10, 2021 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 May be difficult to read, but the information highlights that the price data tends to show a much higher supposed chance to inner barriers compared to 1/starters chance. But that doesn't occur for outer barriers. i.e. inner barriers are likely highly over assessed as a component of chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London Trader Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 On 11/11/2021 at 11:10 AM, mardigras said: Here is the same table using betfair price data as an indicator of chance. This is using a price just prior to start (not SP, as SP wasn't always available on NZ racing). Less runners due to not having Betfair pricing data on all races. And also to note, the markets on NZ racing are not anywhere near 100% especially a few years back - and a lot of the excess market % was in the longer priced runners, which inflates the supposed chance of longer priced runners more so than those facing more competitive betting. This shows a clear shift punting wise towards inner barriers compared to an equal chance on barrier. But the shift does not relate to outcomes. How can there be more starters in barrier 2 than barrier 1? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, London Trader said: How can there be more starters in barrier 2 than barrier 1? Quite easily - if you could read. Perhaps give it a go. If after trying that, you still can't work it out, let everyone reading this site know. Thanks. Edited November 14, 2021 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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