Spring contenders

[mardigras]

One of the more favoured contenders is out for the spring. Hitotsu.

[VC!]

I thought he was a winning chance for the MC

[Buller Rep]

I thought that he could win any race that he was set for, that’s how good he was. 
Assuming he’s still intact my guess is that he’ll end up at Arrowfield this spring. 
 

[mardigras]

I see Greg Carpenter is leaving RV and heading to HK. This year to be his last year providing the weights for the Melbourne/Caulfield Cups.

Quite pleased although I doubt the replacement will do any better, given the overarching way handicapping is done in Australia. They're all just too scared to actually do the job properly.

[mardigras]

Interesting things happening in the cup market. 

Firstly Williams has bought into Cleveland and he is now trained by Joseph O'Brien (having been shifted from Aidan O'Brien). Cup being the hopeful target.

And hopeful may well be right. I'm not suggesting he can't win the cup, but what surprises me the most is how one transaction of Williams buying a horse, can dramatically change the betting behaviour. This horse has been the subject of betting whereby it has been trading as low as 26s and only 23s available on the exchange. 

Might seem like a good bet to some - not me. Whilst things can change between now and the cup (and even now and when weights are allocated), but

a) the horse is not currently qualified for the cup

b) unless Carpenter has a melt down (due to the Williams link), the horse will be weighted on the minimum unless he wins a Group race between now and the middle of August.

I'd have preferred Loft - until I heard he has also been bought by Australian interests, lowering his price.

[Midnight Caller]

14 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Interesting things happening in the cup market. 

Firstly Williams has bought into Cleveland and he is now trained by Joseph O'Brien (having been shifted from Aidan O'Brien). Cup being the hopeful target.

And hopeful may well be right. I'm not suggesting he can't win the cup, but what surprises me the most is how one transaction of Williams buying a horse, can dramatically change the betting behaviour. This horse has been the subject of betting whereby it has been trading as low as 26s and only 23s available on the exchange. 

Might seem like a good bet to some - not me. Whilst things can change between now and the cup (and even now and when weights are allocated), but

a) the horse is not currently qualified for the cup

b) unless Carpenter has a melt down (due to the Williams link), the horse will be weighted on the minimum unless he wins a Group race between now and the middle of August.

I'd have preferred Loft - until I heard he has also been bought by Australian interests, lowering his price.

Agree re Cleveland Mardi.

What are your thoughts on the Balding trained Coltrane?

 

Edited July 7, 2022 by Midnight Caller

[mardigras]

8 minutes ago, Midnight Caller said:

Agree re Cleveland Mardi.

What are your thoughts on the Balding trained Coltrane?

 

I like him. (I had him selected when he won at good odds at Ascot).

And he has qualified and should already get enough weight. Two big things for me. And there has been some expression of interest in going to the race. Winning the Marathon so easily over a horse they thought a lot of previously suggests the staying element will be no problem.

Edited July 7, 2022 by mardigras

[mardigras]

After Hitotsu injured, now Incentivise out of the spring.

[Midnight Caller]

3 hours ago, mardigras said:

After Hitotsu injured, now Incentivise out of the spring.

Thanks Mardi, I have three antes on NH raiders at significantly larger prices than they are showing  now.

[mardigras]

The Goodwood Cup turned into another great race - with the cream rising to the top. Awesome run from Stradivarius. Most of these in markets for the Melbourne Cup, but none of the top 3 home would come (imo). But Coltrane ran a brilliant race and is a definite chance to head over. 

Away He Goes, quite well fancied last year before injury, he ran OK for a distant 5th. Whether they continue with the plan to come over must have a question mark.

Kyprios is turning into a pretty top class performer.

[Midnight Caller]

On 7/26/2022 at 6:49 PM, mardigras said:

The Goodwood Cup turned into another great race - with the cream rising to the top. Awesome run from Stradivarius. Most of these in markets for the Melbourne Cup, but none of the top 3 home would come (imo). But Coltrane ran a brilliant race and is a definite chance to head over. 

Away He Goes, quite well fancied last year before injury, he ran OK for a distant 5th. Whether they continue with the plan to come over must have a question mark.

Kyprios is turning into a pretty top class performer.

Yes, it was a great race. Kyprios is one tough horse!

[karrotsishere]

Not sure where to put this, but seems to be some talk about Aus racing on this thread. Did anyone else see that article about apprentice abuse in Australia? Cant remember state maybe Victoria. My word. Only read 1/2 the article, didnt want to continue reading. Please tell me this sort of thing didnt happen in NZ? 

[mardigras]

43 minutes ago, karrotsishere said:

Not sure where to put this, but seems to be some talk about Aus racing on this thread. Did anyone else see that article about apprentice abuse in Australia? Cant remember state maybe Victoria. My word. Only read 1/2 the article, didnt want to continue reading. Please tell me this sort of thing didnt happen in NZ? 

Can't comment without knowing the reference. You can always start new threads karrots. This one is primarily about horses/commentary re those targeting the spring carnival and your comment is likely to get lost in here.

Edited July 29, 2022 by mardigras

[mardigras]

Sadly, no Coltrane MC.

[Midnight Caller]

On 8/2/2022 at 6:44 AM, mardigras said:

Sadly, no Coltrane MC.

Yes  a little disappointed he is not coming.But I would say coming back from injury  winning a strong handicap, a Listed race, and a big run in a Grp 1, the probably think now they have a better  horse than they thought. I hope he goes for it next year.

[mardigras]

On 7/8/2022 at 8:21 AM, Midnight Caller said:

Agree re Cleveland Mardi.

 

I seriously can't believe Cleveland is favourite/near favourite for the cup. I'm laying him all day, even though he may win - if he gets in.

If Carpenter doesn't have a melt down, he won't have enough weight to make the field as things are now. And I've not assessed any of his runs above Listed level. 

[mardigras]

On 8/14/2022 at 5:13 PM, mardigras said:

I seriously can't believe Cleveland is favourite/near favourite for the cup. I'm laying him all day, even though he may win - if he gets in.

If Carpenter doesn't have a melt down, he won't have enough weight to make the field as things are now. And I've not assessed any of his runs above Listed level. 

Looks like testing whether he can win has been taken off the table this year.

On Cleveland, O'Brien added: "It was a really good run from him at Leopardstown [when second] in the Ballyroan Stakes on his first start for us. This would seem the obvious stepping stone.

"He could run in the Irish Cesarewitch at the Curragh or the Long Distance Cup at Ascot after this, but he won't be going to Melbourne."

Full story here.

'We have two strong candidates' - Joseph O'Brien runners out to upset Kyprios | Horse Racing News | Racing Post

[mardigras]

Interesting situation Saturday with the stayer's race at Flemington currently having three full brothers accepted for the race. All imports (all still nominated for the Melbourne Cup)

Serpentine

Team Captain

King Of The Castle

Maybe the other Galileo beats them all. 

Adding to that - all three are currently at the same odds on NZ TAB, 26s.

Edited September 8, 2022 by mardigras

[mardigras]

On 9/8/2022 at 12:45 PM, mardigras said:

Interesting situation Saturday with the stayer's race at Flemington currently having three full brothers accepted for the race. All imports (all still nominated for the Melbourne Cup)

Serpentine

Team Captain

King Of The Castle

Maybe the other Galileo beats them all. 

Adding to that - all three are currently at the same odds on NZ TAB, 26s.

Must have read my post 🙂

[mardigras]

I've talked about Carpenter having a meltdown in the weights released. And this year is par for the course. There are always some - I'd say what I think is why, but for professional reasons, I won't.

This year, there are two major anomalies - both however unlikely to take advantage of the anomaly they have been gifted.

They are the Ebor placegetters, Alfred Boucher and Earl Of Tyrone. Both of these should in reality have been weighted on around 50.5 - 51kg (including the 1kg adjustment due to raising the minimum topweight to 58kg).

Take the previous horses weighted based on Irish Ratings. We have from 2020 (horse, rating, cup allocated weight, variance to benchmark)

Dawn Patrol 106 50kg -9
Cormorant 106 50kg -9
Degraves 105 50kg -9.5
English King 112 50kg -9
Mythical 104 50kg -9.5
Selino 102 50kg -9.5
Pondus 107 51kg -8.5
Weekender 111 52kg -7.5

This year (horse, rating, cup allocated weight, variance to benchmark)

Point King 102 50kg (NH 3yo) -9.5 benchmark of 56.5 = effectively 47kg
Earl Of Tyrone 106 53kg???? -6.5 benchmark of 59.5 = effectively 53kg

which suggests that the 106 of Earl Of Tyrone is superior or equal to the 111 of Weekender, along with every other weight assessment above.

And also that the 106 of Earl Of Tyrone is 6kg superior to the 102 of Point King.

When you consider UK ratings, you get the following situation

UK ratings (horse, rating, cup allocated weight, variance to benchmark)
Alfred Boucher 104 53kg -6.5
Earl Of Tyrone 104 53kg -6.5

yet in this year's race we also have
Rodrigo Diaz 104 50.5kg -9
Without A Fight 113 55.5 -4

So 2.5kg variance for two 104 rated horses compared to Rodrigo Diaz on the same mark, who incidentally is already booked to come, and the other horses are those that RV may have been keen to attract???

And a 2.5kg difference up for a horse rated 9 points (4.5kg superior). Interesting.

There is no doubt in my mind that the weight allocated those runners was an incentive to try and get them to decide to come. In the cup, often more weight is better. If they had been weighted the same as Rodrigo Diaz, they would have been 0% chance to come (even if they wanted to).

The weight made it a possible. Although, it is highly likely that aren't coming.

It's not good in my opinion.

 

 

[mardigras]

On 9/8/2022 at 12:45 PM, mardigras said:

Interesting situation Saturday with the stayer's race at Flemington currently having three full brothers accepted for the race. All imports (all still nominated for the Melbourne Cup)

Serpentine

Team Captain

King Of The Castle

Maybe the other Galileo beats them all. 

Adding to that - all three are currently at the same odds on NZ TAB, 26s.

The brothers are all back for another go - this time with a ballot free entry into the Cup. Maybe the other Galileo beats them all - or perhaps Sheraz or Lunar Flare. Could have a big impact on markets.

[mardigras]

I found this highly amusing from Nick Williams. This is why I love betting on handicap races.

The grand run northern hemisphere three-year-olds have enjoyed in the Melbourne Cup could come to a grinding halt if Deauville Legend wins next Tuesday, according to a multiple Melbourne Cup winner.

Nick Williams and his father Lloyd won the 2017 Melbourne Cup with northern hemisphere three-year-old Rekindling to start a dream run for imported horses of that age.

But just five years on, that dominance could be threatened.

“If it does carry 55(kgs) and win, I think that will be the end of northern hemisphere three-year-olds in this race,” Williams said.

“Even though you’ve got a much weaker race, the handicapper will sit there and say, ‘well, he’s won 55kgs’ so then the weights will go back to normal after the raise this year, but the three-year-olds will still be weighted right up.

“I think James Ferguson’s horse (Deauville Legend) is the best horse in the race, but he’s weighted as the best horse in the race.

“That’s what he has to overcome. But he’s certainly the best horse in the race.

 

“We had Bondi Beach in the (2016) race with 53(kgs) and it was too much for him. He had better form than Deauville Legend before he came out. That 53 is effectively 54 with weights up a kilo, but he still has to carry a kilo more again.”

A year after Rekindling won, Godolphin won its first Melbourne Cup with a horse of the age in Cross Counter, who carried just 51kgs.

By the following year, weights were raised for similar young horses. That year Coolmore horse Il Paradiso was weighted up to 52.5kgs before a luckless third and then in 2020, northern hemisphere three-year-old Tiger Moth also was given 52.5kgs before his second placing behind Twilight Payment.

Williams says Deauville Legend stood out as the Cup chances stationed at the Werribee International Horse Centre.

“Werribee horses have got a 50/50 record in the Cup over the last 10 years - they seem to win every second year,” Williams said.

“I think I understand what those horses are. I think we’ve got a much lower standard of race this year for most years except maybe 2019. I think the race is not great. It’s no one’s fault. It’s just the way it’s panned out.

“It’s an even race and it wouldn’t surprise me to see something down the bottom of the weights get up. This year, through circumstances, it’s shaping as an old-fashioned Melbourne Cup.

“Simon Crisford’s horse (Without A Fight) is a handy stayer and the other imports I am not so sure about.

“Edward Cummings’ horse (Duais) has a chance and for that matter, James’ (Cummings) horse (Alegron) back on top of the ground must be given some hope. Even that horse that won the Geelong Cup (Emissary), he put in an impressive finish.

“It’s wide open. The locals are definitely in it.”

[mardigras]

Now Caulfield Cup winner out of Melbourne Cup after failing vet scans.

[mardigras]

This should help the punters.

Age Statistics (wins)

• 3yo: (24) 4yo: (45) 5yo: (44) 6yo: (34) 7yo: (11) 8yo: (3)

• Four and five-year-olds have the best record of any age group racking up 89 victories from the 161 renewals thus far, that’s 55.27% strike-rate!

The last three-year-old to win was Skipton (1941), and the last eight-year-old was Twilight Payment in 2020. Twilight Payment broke an 82 year wait for the eight-year-olds so it is still rather unwise to side with these two ages groups in the cup.

Draw Statistics

• Barrier 5 (8 wins)

• Barrier 10, 14 & 19 (7 wins)

• Barrier 11 (6 wins)

• Barrier 1,4,6,8 & 17 (5 wins)

The barriers (stalls) have been in use for 84 years and barrier 18 has never produced the winner.

If you suffer from Triskaidekaphobia, then you really don’t have to be as that barrier has been victorious on four different occasions: Phar Lap (1930), Baghdad Note (1970), Ethereal (2001) and Dunaden (2011).

Lucky Saddlecloth Numbers

No.4 (13 wins), No.12 (11 wins), No.1 (10 wins), No.6 (10 wins), No.8 (8 wins), No.5 (8 wins)

Since 1980 No.6 has won a total of seven times so it appears that number is pretty lucky.

Weight Statistics

53kgs: (9 wins), 54.5kgs (8 wins), 52.5kgs (8 wins), 56kgs (7 wins)

In the last 35 years only Makybe Diva (2005) has carried 58kgs or greater to victory so it would be prudent to avoid the top weights when making your selection.

[curious]

Don't they assess colours?