News from the North(ern) Hemisphere

[Midnight Caller]

Two really top class races not to be missed at Leopardstown tomorrow. 

The Christmas  Hurdle and The Savill Chase

[Midnight Caller]

On 12/1/2020 at 6:43 PM, Stodge said:

Catching up on a few bits and bobs from recent times, ALMOND EYE beat the youngsters to win the Japan Cup last Sunday at Hanshin. It was a wonderful sayonara for yet another top mare, perhaps the equal of ENABLE or MAGICAL and no doubt she will be heading to Deep Impact.

As for the jumpers, yes, the winter season is getting under way here and in Ireland. The Betfair Chase was the first British Group 1 and that went to BRISTOL DE MAI winning it for the third time in four years. EPATANTE opened her Champion Hurdle title defence with a win in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle last Saturday but the star performance was ENVOI ALLEN in the Drinmore at Fairyhouse last Sunday. He's already being touted as the "next big thing" and looks a banker for the Arkle at Cheltenham in March.

Interesting race coming up in the Jacques le Marois at Deauville on Sunday Stodge! Plenty  of chances outside  the favourite. Arc and Victorian carnivals coming up!

[Stodge]

@Midnight Callerhas invited me back here to offer some thoughts on UK, Irish and French racing.

It's the big York Ebor meeting this week starting tomorrow with the Juddmonte International which on some measures is the best race in the world in terms of quality.

Not sure this year's renewal quite gets to that - it might have done if the first two in Sunday's Marois had turned up. 

ST MARK'S BASILICA is a late withdrawal due to an infected foot.

I fancy MISHRIFF against LOVE - I thought she had a very hard race in the Prince of Wales (the second, AUDARYA, ran poorly in the Nassau). He probably didn't like the slow ground at Sandown after a break but time may tell giving weight to the top 3-y-o was always going to be impossible.

ALCOHOL FREE won the Sussex but there's plenty of questions over her stamina and I fancy MAC SWINEY to run better over this shorter trip having been well held in both the English and Irish Derbies.

The other big races this week are the Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday and the Nunthorpe on Friday.

One big problem we're having here currently is small fields. 18% of all races run in the UK in the past fortnight had five runners or fewer. Too much racing?

[pete]

7 minutes ago, Stodge said:

@Midnight Callerhas invited me back here to offer some thoughts on UK, Irish and French racing.

It's the big York Ebor meeting this week starting tomorrow with the Juddmonte International which on some measures is the best race in the world in terms of quality.

Not sure this year's renewal quite gets to that - it might have done if the first two in Sunday's Marois had turned up. 

ST MARK'S BASILICA is a late withdrawal due to an infected foot.

I fancy MISHRIFF against LOVE - I thought she had a very hard race in the Prince of Wales (the second, AUDARYA, ran poorly in the Nassau). He probably didn't like the slow ground at Sandown after a break but time may tell giving weight to the top 3-y-o was always going to be impossible.

ALCOHOL FREE won the Sussex but there's plenty of questions over her stamina and I fancy MAC SWINEY to run better over this shorter trip having been well held in both the English and Irish Derbies.

The other big races this week are the Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday and the Nunthorpe on Friday.

One big problem we're having here currently is small fields. 18% of all races run in the UK in the past fortnight had five runners or fewer. Too much racing?

Nice to see you back Stodge. We really appreciate your thoughts.

[Midnight Caller]

Fields looking competitive for York this week. Cheers Stodge.

 

[Stodge]

18 minutes ago, pete said:

Nice to see you back Stodge. We really appreciate your thoughts.

Thanks for the kind word.

I won't go into the detail I've done before and elsewhere - just offer my views on what's happening and what I think might happen.

You can also follow my unsuccessful punting from afar (or anear as the case may be).

[Hesi]

Yeah, that's great Stodge, thanks

We are only a small site, but would like to grow a little bit more, and we try to keep the personal denigration to a minimum

[Stodge]

Two strong performances from MISHRIFF and SNOWFALL on the first two days of the meeting, I'll reflect more over the next few days.

[Stodge]

MISHRIFF was hugely impressive on Wednesday. He clocked 2 minutes 5.92 seconds for the 2000m beating the standard time by 2.4 seconds. Say 12 seconds per 200m and he was 40m ahead of the standard.

He'll probably go for the Breeders Cup Turf and end his career in either Japan or Hong Kong. If he were mine, I'd pack him off to the Cox Plate and earn some easy money - seriously, is there anything in Australia to get anywhere near him?

YIBIR won the Group 2 over 2400m but he's a gelding so can't run in the English Leger. The good thing (though not for YIBIR) is without the wedding tackle, he'll be back as a 4-y-o and will be a serious force on quick ground.

I know SIR LUCAN has been bought by the owners of SIR DRAGONET and to be fair the Voltigeur has proved a useful trial for the Melbourne Cup but I thought he didn't quite get home.

YIBIR's stable mate, HURRICANE LANE, winner of the Irish Derby and Grand Prix de Paris, is 5/4 favourite for the Leger.

[mardigras]

Think the Ebor is a very even field with a lot of chances. The Melbourne Cup hopefuls will be looking to Murtagh's runners in the main. One of the more punted individuals antepost, Live Your Dream, is only a reserve for the race - so needs a scratching. Took near on 10% of the betfair antepost bets (although not a great deal in the scheme of things).

I will try and put up one I like tomorrow.

 

[mardigras]

34 minutes ago, Stodge said:

YIBIR won the Group 2 over 2400m but he's a gelding so can't run in the English Leger. The good thing (though not for YIBIR) is without the wedding tackle, he'll be back as a 4-y-o and will be a serious force on quick ground.

I know SIR LUCAN has been bought by the owners of SIR DRAGONET and to be fair the Voltigeur has proved a useful trial for the Melbourne Cup but I thought he didn't quite get home.

If Godolphin weren't so anti the new Melbourne Cup rules, we might have seen Yibir a late nom for the cup. The winner has access to a late entry for $1,000 by August 25 (as is the case for the Lonsdale, Ebor and Prix Kergolay). 

Also, Away He Goes may be a surprise entrant for the Ebor at present - the Prix Kergolay was indicated as likely prior - but is not in that. He is another runner they have expressed interest in heading to Melbourne.

[Midnight Caller]

Day 1: Good win by Yibir, who looked strong to the line! Misriff was always in control of his race, and 3/1 for The Champions looks good as most of his rivals wiuld be look at The Arc.

Day 2: Snowfall just all class! Well done to Ismail Mohammed and Ray Dawson, claiming a GRP 2 with Zain Claudette beating Sandrine from the Balding stable ,who is held in high regard.

Today, the Balding stable has a strong hand in a few races and Buick has some good outside rides.

[Stodge]

8 hours ago, Midnight Caller said:

Day 1: Good win by Yibir, who looked strong to the line! Misriff was always in control of his race, and 3/1 for The Champions looks good as most of his rivals wiuld be look at The Arc.

Day 2: Snowfall just all class! Well done to Ismail Mohammed and Ray Dawson, claiming a GRP 2 with Zain Claudette beating Sandrine from the Balding stable ,who is held in high regard.

Today, the Balding stable has a strong hand in a few races and Buick has some good outside rides.

MISHRIFF is the dominant horse at 2000m currently but I suspect he'll avoid the soft autumn ground in the UK for the US and Japan - as I say, I'd send him for some easy money to Moonee Valley.

SNOWFALL was very good - again, there's just a niggle over what she beat. The thought of her and ABAYAR clashing in Paris is one to savour - I think I'd want to be on the colt as he's beaten higher quality but she could gallop all over him.

SANDRINE was giving 3 lbs to her rival so she comes out pretty well in defeat - I wonder if they'll rematch in the Cheveley Park.

Big Sunday meeting at Deauville - the Morny looks a strong race as does the Jean Romanet. I like EBAIYRA in the latter but the former is very tricky - ARMOR impressed at Goodwood over 1000m and VELOCIDAD, a filly of Joseph O'Brien's, might just surprise.

[Stodge]

21 hours ago, mardigras said:

Think the Ebor is a very even field with a lot of chances. The Melbourne Cup hopefuls will be looking to Murtagh's runners in the main. One of the more punted individuals antepost, Live Your Dream, is only a reserve for the race - so needs a scratching. Took near on 10% of the betfair antepost bets (although not a great deal in the scheme of things).

I will try and put up one I like tomorrow.

 

Very tough race as always. Both the front two in the market, HAMISH and MOUNT LEINSTER, are coming off very long breaks. LIVE YOUR DREAM just missed the cut unfortunately.

Last year's winner FUJAIRA PRINCE had a nice warm-up the other day and I think will go close. I'd have both TRIBAL CRAFT and ILARAAB as possibles as well. 

The Irish raider MIRANN is another to consider. 

[mardigras]

Great race between Stradivarius and Spanish Mission. Be great to see Spanish Mission continue on to the cups. Even against a Stradivarius a bit below his absolute best, SM would be right up there in performance from a European perspective, imo.

[Midnight Caller]

1 hour ago, mardigras said:

Great race between Stradivarius and Spanish Mission. Be great to see Spanish Mission continue on to the cups. Even against a Stradivarius a bit below his absolute best, SM would be right up there in performance from a European perspective, imo.

i have a couple of ante posts @20/1 on SM for his assault down under. I would be pretty happy with that run if you owned him! He shows all the qualities needed for the Aussie cups.

[mardigras]

5 minutes ago, Midnight Caller said:

i have a couple of ante posts @20/1 on SM for his assault down under. I would be pretty happy with that run if you owned him! He shows all the qualities needed for the Aussie cups.

Still available at 26s for MCup on NZ TAB.

[mardigras]

The Ebor tonight, I'm looking at 

14  Humanitarian and 4 Away He Goes - both around the 19s mark.

With 12 of the 22 runners at 22s or less, it is very even. I couldn't have Mirann but I'd be happy if he won and came to the cups.

Others I think may play a part are 16 Global Storm, 11 Pablo Escobarr and the consistent and prior winner 2 Fujaira Prince.

Not a big fan of Pablo Escobarr in most races - but they have been raving about Rodrigo Diaz for the cups, and he could only just beat Pablo last start behind Hukum. Not how I analyse races, but I'm hoping we will see Rodrigo Diaz down under so at 60s, Pablo might be an each way hope.

[mardigras]

On 8/20/2021 at 9:38 AM, mardigras said:

The Melbourne Cup hopefuls will be looking to Murtagh's runners in the main.

And as it turns out - one of these Sonnyboyliston wins the event. Mirann was never in it.

20 hours ago, mardigras said:

The Ebor tonight, I'm looking at 

14  Humanitarian and 4 Away He Goes - both around the 19s mark.

With 12 of the 22 runners at 22s or less, it is very even. I couldn't have Mirann but I'd be happy if he won and came to the cups.

Others I think may play a part are 16 Global Storm, 11 Pablo Escobarr and the consistent and prior winner 2 Fujaira Prince.

Not a big fan of Pablo Escobarr in most races - but they have been raving about Rodrigo Diaz for the cups, and he could only just beat Pablo last start behind Hukum. Not how I analyse races, but I'm hoping we will see Rodrigo Diaz down under so at 60s, Pablo might be an each way hope.

Always a great race with a big field. A lot struggling a long way out. Best of mine above was Away He goes in 7th, with Pablo running OK for 8th.

Edited August 21, 2021 by mardigras

[Stodge]

Just reflecting on Friday - a terrific scrap between STRADIVARIUS and SPANISH MISSION but only four runners for a Group 2 3200m race. The staying division up here is very poor. I'm just idly wondering if the snapping up of young stayers by Australian interests is having an effect.

The Nunthorpe saw WINTER POWER show her affinity for the track - she's nowhere as good elsewhere. A 1-2 for the North - I thought SUESA simply couldn't go the early gallop but ran home well. The Abbaye is her logical target but it's a 950m race and she can't afford to be so far back.

POINT LONSDALE bolted up at 1/6 in the Group 2 at The Curragh this evening - probably the best juvenile in either England or Ireland. I imagine the plan will be the National and then the Dewhurst.

SPACE BLUES did it well at York - he's a real 1400m specialist and I imagine the Foret on Arc day will be the plan.

[Stodge]

More catch up from Saturday - the Queen's REACH FOR THE MOON, who had finished a well held second to POINT LONSDALE in the Chesham, bolted up in the Solario at Sandown over 1400m.

The re-match looks likely in the Dewhurst though of course everyone in the UK wants the Queen to have a fancied runner in the Platinum Jubilee Derby which will be held over the Bank Holiday weekend.

The Melrose Handicap winner VALLEY FORGE looks a nice type for the future.

@mardigrashas already mentioned the Kergorlay winner SKAZINO - he's the new kid on the French staying block.

[Stodge]

On 8/21/2021 at 8:59 PM, mardigras said:

And as it turns out - one of these Sonnyboyliston wins the event. Mirann was never in it.

Always a great race with a big field. A lot struggling a long way out. Best of mine above was Away He goes in 7th, with Pablo running OK for 8th.

I thought it was a messy race with a lot of chopping and changing of pace. It was raining but the rain hadn't got in and they ran the 2800m in 2 minutes 56.1 which is 0.8 seconds below standard.

I thought connections of the winner were veering towards the Irish Leger but that might be quite a strong event as geldings can run in that and they can't go in the English Leger.

Let's be realistic - QUICKTHORN is a handicapper, a decent one but he was well beaten in a Group 3 behind HUKUM. The third, ALOUNAK, is much better in the mud and fifth placed MAX VEGA is the one for me from the race. Didn't get the best of the race and was thought good enough to run in the 2020 Derby and got much closer to HUKUM in 2020 than QUICKTHORN did this year. 

[mardigras]

Just now, Stodge said:

I thought it was a messy race with a lot of chopping and changing of pace. It was raining but the rain hadn't got in and they ran the 2800m in 2 minutes 56.1 which is 0.8 seconds below standard.

I thought connections of the winner were veering towards the Irish Leger but that might be quite a strong event as geldings can run in that and they can't go in the English Leger.

Let's be realistic - QUICKTHORN is a handicapper, a decent one but he was well beaten in a Group 3 behind HUKUM. The third, ALOUNAK, is much better in the mud and fifth placed MAX VEGA is the one for me from the race. Didn't get the best of the race and was thought good enough to run in the 2020 Derby and got much closer to HUKUM in 2020 than QUICKTHORN did this year. 

I heard an interview between Murtagh and Andrew Bensley yesterday - I think he still wants to go Irish St Leger based on that. I actually don't see him coming to Melbourne. Mirann will still come I expect based on the ownership.

Coming to Melbourne is difficult - scans etc - but also staff. Whereas Mirann wouldn't have that staff issue as he would move here I expect to be trained locally. Mirann wouldn't make the cup field in my view without winning the Lexus/Hotham on Derby day anyway - so he is well under the odds imo.

[Stodge]

Following on to Sunday, PERFECT POWER was impressive in the Morny but he's bred to be a Commonwealth Cup horse not a Guineas horse.

AUDARYA was just touched off in the Jean Romanet but it was good to see her back close to her best form.

RAABIHAH bolted up in the 2400m Pomone - she was fifth in last year's Arc but is only 20/1 for this year's renewal which may feature an unusually strong 3-y-o challenge including both ADAYAR and SNOWFALL, It's hugely unusual to have BOTH the Derby and Oaks winners get to the Arc as live contenders.

We've mentioned SKAZINO - he looks a Royal Oak horse to me (the French St Leger).

[Stodge]

Pretty quiet weekend up here - BENBATL, who once ran WINX to a couple of lengths in the Cox Plate, goes over 1600m in the Celebration Mile at Goodwood. I quite like the 3-y-o CHINDIT against him.