A question

[brown fox]

With all the comps going on now I've decided to do more revision on past racedays.Last week I backed 7 horses that drew outside

barrier 8.Two were dragged back immediately,One raced to the front and had little in the straight and 4 were trapped wide for a considerable

distance.Nobody can tell me Barrier draws aren't important😣

 

[mardigras]

1 minute ago, brown fox said:

With all the comps going on now I've decided to do more revision on past racedays.Last week I backed 7 horses that drew outside

barrier 8.Two were dragged back immediately,One raced to the front and had little in the straight and 4 were trapped wide for a considerable

distance.Nobody can tell me Barrier draws aren't important😣

 

I'd say that people can tell you that - but you simply won't believe them or listen to them.

But in respect of barriers, it isn't that they may be important or not - it is that if they have any importance, the punter overstates the importance. When you are betting into a market where the odds are in favour of the odds setter, and you need to find a decent margin on chance in order to profit long term, the price is reduced more than it should be based on the concept of barrier being a key factor for punters. So you are even more likely to be taking odds on a horse with a so called favourable barrier, lower than what its true chance would reflect.

Irrespective of whether a barrier is important, placing that importance on it is thinking about trying to find the winner of the race irrespective of whether the return is favourable long term. 

Just another thing that punters can't fully grasp.

[Hesi]

16 minutes ago, brown fox said:

With all the comps going on now I've decided to do more revision on past racedays.Last week I backed 7 horses that drew outside

barrier 8.Two were dragged back immediately,One raced to the front and had little in the straight and 4 were trapped wide for a considerable

distance.Nobody can tell me Barrier draws aren't important😣

 

Graeme, I think you will find that people like Mardi and Barry have all the data on win percentages from barrier draw.  Barry also used to disregard barrier draw.

[brown fox]

Yes I understand what you guys are saying it's just watching 3 or 4 races in a row getting trapped 3 wide is frustrating.

Smallish fields and a horse that gets back normally probably not so important.

On a brighter note the TAB is giving a bonus bet if you bet on the cricket tonight (34 degrees in Christchurch today)

Little flutter on 2 lbws in match @$4.00😁

[curious]

1 hour ago, brown fox said:

With all the comps going on now I've decided to do more revision on past racedays.Last week I backed 7 horses that drew outside

barrier 8.Two were dragged back immediately,One raced to the front and had little in the straight and 4 were trapped wide for a considerable

distance.Nobody can tell me Barrier draws aren't important😣

 

Did it occur to you that irrespective of barrier draw, there may be another explanation for there performance. Perhaps there were other better horses in the event?

[brown fox]

Seems to be the case in most of my races Curious🙈Maybe I need another hobby

[Hesi]

And some commentators who always seem to put focus on a horse being wide without cover, usually from a wide draw, then getting cover.

All this without ever considering the numerous horses that come wide in the straight, from last to win.  Aequalis at Riccarton on Thurs came from 2 lengths last at the 700m, took off 7 wide around the home turn to keep up a sustained run in the straight to win.  Imagine the drain on reserves to do that

[curious]

5 minutes ago, Hesi said:

And some commentators who always seem to put focus on a horse being wide without cover, usually from a wide draw, then getting cover.

All this without ever considering the numerous horses that come wide in the straight, from last to win.  Aequalis at Riccarton on Thurs came from 2 lengths last at the 700m, took off 7 wide around the home turn to keep up a sustained run in the straight to win.  Imagine the drain on reserves to do that

Agree. Watch American and UK racing. There's a thing about it here. I'd much rather see my horse sitting 3 wide if that's where it lands, traveling comfortably within itself, than being dragged back or pressed forward using it up early.

Edited January 19 by curious

[Hesi]

Also a 'thing' about the same group of tipsters on the TAB website always picking the first 3 favourites, just chopping or changing the order.  No point even looking at it.

[mardigras]

22 minutes ago, curious said:

 horse sitting 3 wide if that's where it lands, traveling comfortably within itself

Yep, done a lot there and yet here, it's like the worst thing. Jockeys are definitely one aspect to that where the 'thing' gets such a focus, jockeys make poor decisions because of it.

[PWJ]

On 1/19/2024 at 9:33 AM, Hesi said:

PJ is without doubt the the breeding expert, I wonder what his view is on prices and how to shorten the odds of getting a good one

As you might imagine I have done extensive studies on this and can confirm that your chances of a mare producing a stakeswinner are very much better if that mare has been a stakeswinner, to put it in the simplest terms. I have a couple of friends who are expert advisers who have independently reached the same conclusion.

Of course this does not in any way suggest that a Champion mare can be expected to leave Champion foals, It is just that your chances are considerably better. Great mares like Sunline and Black Caviar are disadvantaged in that their genetic structure is so perfect that ripping half of it away and adding the half contributed by ANY stallion is likely to produce an inferior result. Think of it this way. If I cut the Mona Lisa in half with a slice directly down the middle and asked you or ANYONE at random to paint in the missing half, how close to the original do you think it would be ? Not much.

The best strategy for trying to predict a stakes performer is what I call MQI (mare quality index). Essentially it identifies distaff families which have the highest MQI factor. For explanation I enclose an article I had published a few years back for ANZ Bloodstock News. I also enclose a link where Breeding Columnist Trevor Marshallsea uses an example of my MQI system with relevance to a stakeswinner. It is worth a read.

Female genes are more dominant and have a better chance of effective transmission than genetic material from males (father to daughter transmission still quite effective). This is common knowledge among geneticists and can best be explained by the discovery late last century that mtDNA (mitochondrial DNA) can be transmitted in any mammal from mother to daughter. The obsession with sirelines is vastly over exaggerated. Despite the dominance of any sireline at any time in history, they always fail and fall into obscurity.

Back to choosing yearlings, conformation (for risk aversion reasons), physique and temperament are all key factors because even with a superior genetic mix, negative findings in these areas will lessen your chances of securing a stakes horse. Environment and rearing also critical which is a given.

DON’T TAKE THE “MICKEY” OUT OF THE IMPORTANCE OF DISTAFF FAMILIES

When buyers are tasked with selecting the best stock out of any catalogue, their focus on pedigree inevitably gravitates initially towards the sire of the individual. Sires are talked about endlessly, constantly re-evaluated and these days subject to any amount of statistical analysis available on call from bloodstock data providers such as Arion or Bloodhound.

The first question most potential buyers will have regarding a yearling in an upcoming sale is “ who is it by? ”. The answer to such a question can end interest at that very point or may perhaps whet the appetite based on the stallion’s popularity or results.

The catalogue page, in addition to a 3½ generation (the half being the sires only in the 4^th remove) tabulated pedigree, provides six lines of information pertaining to the sire. These are country and year of birth, colour, year to stud, racing achievements, sire titles and exact figures (at the time of publication) regarding runners, winners and stakeswinners (SWs). The sire’s best performers are then listed by name in the last few lines available.

The distaff side of the individual’s pedigree is annotated by information pertaining to its dam and then to each successive tail-female ancestor (2^nd dam, 3^rd dam, etc) until a lack of space permits further examination. The produce records of each dam are detailed as are their successful progeny. Close relatives with some racing prowess are also included. Blacktype performances are shown to the best advantage of the individual in question.

This distaff family information is edited by pedigree data experts to place the individual’s family in the best light, however as someone who also spends many hours each year editing pedigrees for internal use at Arrowfield I can tell you that at times the editing can vary from eliminating some non-city winners and city placings under the 4^th dam dating back 30 years, to not being able to even include every stakeswinner in the first two dams. That’s quite a variation in quality !

Funnily enough it homogenises catalogue pages to look broadly similar when in fact there can be vast difference in the quality of female families. Compare Lot Numbers 6 & 7 in this year’s Inglis Easter Yearling Sale catalogue. Both are out of stakeswinning mares, both featuring approximately the same number of stakeswinners on the page but one family (Lot 6) contains 632 named foals while the other (lot 7) boasts just 61 named foals. All of the stakeswinners from Lot 7’s family are displayed however less than half of those descended from Valour (the 4^th dam of Lot 6) are shown. One has an MQI of 2.5 while the other’s MQI is 6.6. An MQ what ??? More on that soon.

The homogenisation through editing of catalogue pages makes it difficult for the potential buyer to evaluate the true stakes-producing quality of the family, unless of course it’s one with which they are intimately familiar. Now the editing process is necessary of course but a further tool is needed to accurately evaluate the true quality of the distaff family shown on the catalogue page beyond the annotation of stakes performances adjusted by editing.

The necessity for this is impressed on me each year when I meet potential buyers at the Sydney Easter Yearling Sale who are still coming to grips with industry jargon and protocol not to mention catalogues in their abbreviated state and yet looking to spend not inconsiderable sums of money on yearling stock.

Many of these potential investors are highly successful business people who have a daily reliance on key data and statistics such as KPIs (key performance indicators) and indexes of performance. The stallion data supplied on the catalogue page satisfies their need for sire data but the hard information for the distaff side of the pedigree lacks critical evaluation because there is no indication of the opportunity afforded to a particular family to produce the stakes output displayed on the page.

I think there is a simple formula which can be applied to the distaff family of every catalogue page to reflect its stakes output overlayed by opportunity.

This can be achieved by expressing the number of stakeswinners produced by the family as a percentage of the total number of foals it has yielded. The total number of foals descended from the lowest dam named on the page represents the opportunity the family of the yearling in question has been afforded. This is then expressed as a percentage of the number of stakeswinners the family has produced remembering that on some catalogue pages not all the stakeswinners are displayed due to editing requirements. The figure this returns would be known as the Mare Quality Index or MQI, for which I have coined the term “Mickey”.

Let’s consider an example. Lot 122 in the 2013 Inglis Easter Yearling Sale is a bay colt by Redoute’s Choice out of Glitters, a Thunder Gulch mare who claims Eight Carat as her granddam. The incredible success of the Eight Carat family is widely known and it is no surprise that of the 9 stakeswinners shown on this catalogue page, 8 are Group One winners. Due to editing constraints it is of course impossible to display the 31 stakeswinners descended from Eight Carat to date.

If questioned most buyers would have no idea how many named foals are descended from Eight Carat. The answer is 347. By expressing the number of stakeswinners – 31 - yielded from these 347 named foals as a percentage we arrive at a figure of 8.9. So Eight Carat could be said to have an MQI of 8.9. In other words 8.9% of all foals descended from Eight Carat are stakeswinners. This is an extremely valuable piece of information for any potential buyer.

The importance of this result should be put in perspective by comparison with the same stakeswinners/foals ratio returned by the leading commercial sires. The top 5 stallions by average at Sydney Easter 2013 with their stakeswinners/foal averages were:

Sire	Sale Average	Foals	Stakeswinners	% SW-foals
Redoute’s Choice	$610,385	1169	105	9.0
Fastnet Rock	$592,821	847	45	5.3
Snitzel	$335,000	345	15	4.3
Medaglia d’Oro	$305,000	627	42	6.7
High Chaparral	$284,167	1048	42	4.0

*Data as at 28-05-2013

Compare this with the same SW/foals percentage or MQI of selected mares (who appeared as the lowest placed dam on the catalogue page) with progeny in the same sale.

Mare	Lot #	Foals	Stakeswinners	% SW-foals
Scandinavia	131	22	7	31.8
Twiglet	222	28	6	21.4
Kerali	23	113	21	18.6
Princess Tracy	105	109	19	17.4
Dancing Show	309	98	16	16.3
Bravery	38	59	9	15.3
Eight Carat	122	347	31	8.9

 

A good many families show a higher stakes production record than even the best stallions.  There are contributory factors for this which are obvious to knowledgeable breeders however there is no doubt a buyer would find a MQI figure on each yearling catalogue page a valuable addition to the data displayed. Some formerly high ranking families have become diluted over the years while others remain tight and highly productive. The quality of distaff families and their contribution to the racing prowess of their offspring is an often underestimated factor and the commonplace publishing of MQI figures with every yearling catalogue page would underline the importance of a strong distaff pedigree.

Arion Pedigrees, who are a leading data supplier for the industry, now sell a product known as a “Maternal Descendants Report” which describes a statistical breakdown of all descendants of a mare for up to 10 generations including the major winners with their race records. Amongst the comprehensive statistical data are totals for named foals and stakeswinners descended from the subject mare. These are the figures that can be used to produce an MQI for any mare.

I would propose that in future yearling catalogue pages will carry this MQI figure as a simple number expressed to one decimal place. It could appear next to the dam’s year of birth in the tabulated pedigree or on the footer at the bottom right of the page underneath the entire distaff family record. A third option would be to place the MQI figure after the words “3^rd dam”, perhaps the most appropriate position of all in which it could reside (see diagram for examples).

The MQI would always be used in conjunction with the visual interpretation of a catalogue page. Two yearlings may share the same 3^rd dam and therefore the same MQI but one may be devoid of stakeswinners under the first two dams while the other may boast half a dozen black type winners residing in the same location. Clearly one is closer to the classier part of the distaff family than the other.

As an aside I note from looking at an Inglis Sydney Easter Yearling catalogue from 40 years ago that precious little has changed in catalogue page layout in four decades. The sire reference has moved from the rear of the catalogue to an edited down version on each page while the Bruce Lowe numbers have been dropped in the interim. The only addition has been logos for BOBS or VOBIS qualifications.

The MQI or “Mickey” is not a magic wand or a secret formula but it is a valuable tool in helping to make an overall assessment of a yearling’s potential especially for those new to the industry or even those who like to assemble as much data as possible before reaching selection decisions and committing to their equine investment.

 

 

 

 

Peter Jenkins

 

 

https://www.anzbloodstocknews.com/semillion-aus/

Alchemist – hahaha   😆

 

 

 

[PWJ]

BTW the Avantage yearling has an MQI of 18.2 - a very good score.

[pete]

11 minutes ago, PWJ said:

As you might imagine I have done extensive studies on this and can confirm that your chances of a mare producing a stakeswinner are very much better if that mare has been a stakeswinner, to put it in the simplest terms. I have a couple of friends who are expert advisers who have independently reached the same conclusion.

Of course this does not in any way suggest that a Champion mare can be expected to leave Champion foals, It is just that your chances are considerably better. Great mares like Sunline and Black Caviar are disadvantaged in that their genetic structure is so perfect that ripping half of it away and adding the half contributed by ANY stallion is likely to produce an inferior result. Think of it this way. If I cut the Mona Lisa in half with a slice directly down the middle and asked you or ANYONE at random to paint in the missing half, how close to the original do you think it would be ? Not much.

The best strategy for trying to predict a stakes performer is what I call MQI (mare quality index). Essentially it identifies distaff families which have the highest MQI factor. For explanation I enclose an article I had published a few years back for ANZ Bloodstock News. I also enclose a link where Breeding Columnist Trevor Marshallsea uses an example of my MQI system with relevance to a stakeswinner. It is worth a read.

Female genes are more dominant and have a better chance of effective transmission than genetic material from males (father to daughter transmission still quite effective). This is common knowledge among geneticists and can best be explained by the discovery late last century that mtDNA (mitochondrial DNA) can be transmitted in any mammal from mother to daughter. The obsession with sirelines is vastly over exaggerated. Despite the dominance of any sireline at any time in history, they always fail and fall into obscurity.

Back to choosing yearlings, conformation (for risk aversion reasons), physique and temperament are all key factors because even with a superior genetic mix, negative findings in these areas will lessen your chances of securing a stakes horse. Environment and rearing also critical which is a given.

DON’T TAKE THE “MICKEY” OUT OF THE IMPORTANCE OF DISTAFF FAMILIES

 

When buyers are tasked with selecting the best stock out of any catalogue, their focus on pedigree inevitably gravitates initially towards the sire of the individual. Sires are talked about endlessly, constantly re-evaluated and these days subject to any amount of statistical analysis available on call from bloodstock data providers such as Arion or Bloodhound.

 

The first question most potential buyers will have regarding a yearling in an upcoming sale is “ who is it by? ”. The answer to such a question can end interest at that very point or may perhaps whet the appetite based on the stallion’s popularity or results.

 

The catalogue page, in addition to a 3½ generation (the half being the sires only in the 4^th remove) tabulated pedigree, provides six lines of information pertaining to the sire. These are country and year of birth, colour, year to stud, racing achievements, sire titles and exact figures (at the time of publication) regarding runners, winners and stakeswinners (SWs). The sire’s best performers are then listed by name in the last few lines available.

 

The distaff side of the individual’s pedigree is annotated by information pertaining to its dam and then to each successive tail-female ancestor (2^nd dam, 3^rd dam, etc) until a lack of space permits further examination. The produce records of each dam are detailed as are their successful progeny. Close relatives with some racing prowess are also included. Blacktype performances are shown to the best advantage of the individual in question.

 

This distaff family information is edited by pedigree data experts to place the individual’s family in the best light, however as someone who also spends many hours each year editing pedigrees for internal use at Arrowfield I can tell you that at times the editing can vary from eliminating some non-city winners and city placings under the 4^th dam dating back 30 years, to not being able to even include every stakeswinner in the first two dams. That’s quite a variation in quality !

 

Funnily enough it homogenises catalogue pages to look broadly similar when in fact there can be vast difference in the quality of female families. Compare Lot Numbers 6 & 7 in this year’s Inglis Easter Yearling Sale catalogue. Both are out of stakeswinning mares, both featuring approximately the same number of stakeswinners on the page but one family (Lot 6) contains 632 named foals while the other (lot 7) boasts just 61 named foals. All of the stakeswinners from Lot 7’s family are displayed however less than half of those descended from Valour (the 4^th dam of Lot 6) are shown. One has an MQI of 2.5 while the other’s MQI is 6.6. An MQ what ??? More on that soon.

 

The homogenisation through editing of catalogue pages makes it difficult for the potential buyer to evaluate the true stakes-producing quality of the family, unless of course it’s one with which they are intimately familiar. Now the editing process is necessary of course but a further tool is needed to accurately evaluate the true quality of the distaff family shown on the catalogue page beyond the annotation of stakes performances adjusted by editing.

 

The necessity for this is impressed on me each year when I meet potential buyers at the Sydney Easter Yearling Sale who are still coming to grips with industry jargon and protocol not to mention catalogues in their abbreviated state and yet looking to spend not inconsiderable sums of money on yearling stock.

 

Many of these potential investors are highly successful business people who have a daily reliance on key data and statistics such as KPIs (key performance indicators) and indexes of performance. The stallion data supplied on the catalogue page satisfies their need for sire data but the hard information for the distaff side of the pedigree lacks critical evaluation because there is no indication of the opportunity afforded to a particular family to produce the stakes output displayed on the page.

 

I think there is a simple formula which can be applied to the distaff family of every catalogue page to reflect its stakes output overlayed by opportunity.

 

This can be achieved by expressing the number of stakeswinners produced by the family as a percentage of the total number of foals it has yielded. The total number of foals descended from the lowest dam named on the page represents the opportunity the family of the yearling in question has been afforded. This is then expressed as a percentage of the number of stakeswinners the family has produced remembering that on some catalogue pages not all the stakeswinners are displayed due to editing requirements. The figure this returns would be known as the Mare Quality Index or MQI, for which I have coined the term “Mickey”.

 

Let’s consider an example. Lot 122 in the 2013 Inglis Easter Yearling Sale is a bay colt by Redoute’s Choice out of Glitters, a Thunder Gulch mare who claims Eight Carat as her granddam. The incredible success of the Eight Carat family is widely known and it is no surprise that of the 9 stakeswinners shown on this catalogue page, 8 are Group One winners. Due to editing constraints it is of course impossible to display the 31 stakeswinners descended from Eight Carat to date.

 

If questioned most buyers would have no idea how many named foals are descended from Eight Carat. The answer is 347. By expressing the number of stakeswinners – 31 - yielded from these 347 named foals as a percentage we arrive at a figure of 8.9. So Eight Carat could be said to have an MQI of 8.9. In other words 8.9% of all foals descended from Eight Carat are stakeswinners. This is an extremely valuable piece of information for any potential buyer.

 

The importance of this result should be put in perspective by comparison with the same stakeswinners/foals ratio returned by the leading commercial sires. The top 5 stallions by average at Sydney Easter 2013 with their stakeswinners/foal averages were:

 

Sire	Sale Average	Foals	Stakeswinners	% SW-foals
Redoute’s Choice	$610,385	1169	105	9.0
Fastnet Rock	$592,821	847	45	5.3
Snitzel	$335,000	345	15	4.3
Medaglia d’Oro	$305,000	627	42	6.7
High Chaparral	$284,167	1048	42	4.0

*Data as at 28-05-2013

 

Compare this with the same SW/foals percentage or MQI of selected mares (who appeared as the lowest placed dam on the catalogue page) with progeny in the same sale.

 

Mare	Lot #	Foals	Stakeswinners	% SW-foals
Scandinavia	131	22	7	31.8
Twiglet	222	28	6	21.4
Kerali	23	113	21	18.6
Princess Tracy	105	109	19	17.4
Dancing Show	309	98	16	16.3
Bravery	38	59	9	15.3
Eight Carat	122	347	31	8.9

 

 

A good many families show a higher stakes production record than even the best stallions.  There are contributory factors for this which are obvious to knowledgeable breeders however there is no doubt a buyer would find a MQI figure on each yearling catalogue page a valuable addition to the data displayed. Some formerly high ranking families have become diluted over the years while others remain tight and highly productive. The quality of distaff families and their contribution to the racing prowess of their offspring is an often underestimated factor and the commonplace publishing of MQI figures with every yearling catalogue page would underline the importance of a strong distaff pedigree.

 

Arion Pedigrees, who are a leading data supplier for the industry, now sell a product known as a “Maternal Descendants Report” which describes a statistical breakdown of all descendants of a mare for up to 10 generations including the major winners with their race records. Amongst the comprehensive statistical data are totals for named foals and stakeswinners descended from the subject mare. These are the figures that can be used to produce an MQI for any mare.

 

I would propose that in future yearling catalogue pages will carry this MQI figure as a simple number expressed to one decimal place. It could appear next to the dam’s year of birth in the tabulated pedigree or on the footer at the bottom right of the page underneath the entire distaff family record. A third option would be to place the MQI figure after the words “3^rd dam”, perhaps the most appropriate position of all in which it could reside (see diagram for examples).

 

The MQI would always be used in conjunction with the visual interpretation of a catalogue page. Two yearlings may share the same 3^rd dam and therefore the same MQI but one may be devoid of stakeswinners under the first two dams while the other may boast half a dozen black type winners residing in the same location. Clearly one is closer to the classier part of the distaff family than the other.

 

As an aside I note from looking at an Inglis Sydney Easter Yearling catalogue from 40 years ago that precious little has changed in catalogue page layout in four decades. The sire reference has moved from the rear of the catalogue to an edited down version on each page while the Bruce Lowe numbers have been dropped in the interim. The only addition has been logos for BOBS or VOBIS qualifications.

 

The MQI or “Mickey” is not a magic wand or a secret formula but it is a valuable tool in helping to make an overall assessment of a yearling’s potential especially for those new to the industry or even those who like to assemble as much data as possible before reaching selection decisions and committing to their equine investment.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Peter Jenkins

 

 

https://www.anzbloodstocknews.com/semillion-aus/

 

Alchemist – hahaha   😆

 

 

 

 

 

Super interesting stuff PJ. Thanks for this.

[PWJ]

The recent MM Sale concluded a nice bit of business for a good client.

In 2021 I purchased a maiden mare at auction from Shadwell for $275k. She was by I Am Invincible from a More Than Ready daughter of a Danehill stakeswinning mare. Named Baaqyah. On her race debut she was beaten a nose in the first Spring Victorian 2yo Group race - the Maribyrnong Plate over 1000m down the Flemington straight defeating Tagaloa. At her 2nd start she was beaten a length by Tagaloa at The Valley. The fact that she was a Group performer as a very early 2yo, a terrific muscular type and by a very high profile sire from an excellent family meant that I thought she was a bargain at $275k.

The client is a shareholder in Dundeel and sent her there producing a cracker colt (see photo below). She was then put back in foal, this time to Snitzel on a lateish cover. Six months later we sold the mare in foal to Snitzel ($200k service fee) at the 2023 Chairmans Sale in Sydney for $825k to Newgate. The Dundeel colt was sold two weeks ago at MM for $260k. So a return of $1.085m for a spend of $475 plus say $100k expenses - a profit of just over half a million dollars. If the Dundeel service had required a fee then deduct $80k from that.

Photo of Baaqyah when I purchased her (below)

 

BAAQYAH as a $500k yearling sold at Karaka

 

Baaqyahs Dundeel colt sold to Legend Racing last week

 

 

BAAQYAH catalogue page

[PWJ]

On 1/19/2024 at 9:01 AM, pete said:

Remember Sun Ruler?

Zabeel - Sunline. Should've been a champion on that.

Total dud both on and off the track.

Pete, I should add a brief comment here. When dealing with matching a Sunline or Black Caviar, the commercial concerns are paramount for most breeders. There are usually only two or three stallions the owners would consider good enough for their Champion mare. This severely limits a chance to make use of the mares very strong genetic structure and usually is a recipe for disaster, hence your observation. Try telling BCs owners that a 10K stallion in Queensland is the best match for their mare and they will laugh at you. This is why many of these great mares end up with poor produce records.

Some matches that look great on paper, are in reality dooming the offspring to being slow as a wet week. It is impossible to predict Champions when performing a mating but it is relatively easy to predict which offspring can NEVER BE CHAMPIONS.

I will give you an example. Take DUNDEEL. His dam is by one of the great Champion Sires - Zabeel. You would think duplicating Zabeel through a mare mated to him would be a terrific recipe for success - wrong ! Dundeel has just one stakes horse from a mare carrying a strain of Zabeel, from 83 named foals. Dundeel has overall a 13.8% stakes horses-runners ratio. But with mares who carry a line of Zabeel it is just 2.1% ! So by simply avoid Zabeel in the dam of a Dundeel yearling you can improve your chances of a stakes performer more than six and a half times !

[curious]

39 minutes ago, pete said:

Super interesting stuff PJ. Thanks for this.

Yes, a big thank-you for that comprehensive and informative post PWJ.  I'm curious to know if you have an average Mickey for mares in a sale such as that Sydney Easter one, or a distribution curve? In other words what do you consider an acceptable Mickey for further consideration?

[PWJ]

8 minutes ago, curious said:

Yes, a big thank-you for that comprehensive and informative post PWJ.  I'm curious to know if you have an average Mickey for mares in a sale such as that Sydney Easter one, or a distribution curve? In other words what do you consider an acceptable Mickey for further consideration?

If I have an order for a mare I will draw up a shortlist based on commercial considerations - if the client is looking to breed for sale - and then apply MQIs for the candidates. When I bought Baaqyah I had pre-selected about 12-15 mares. I am usually happy with anything close to 10.0 or more. I would go as low as 8 if most of the action in the family is via the particular branch the mare hails from

[curious]

Great thanks. Presumably similar to the latter if buying a yearling or horse to race?

[PWJ]

Lastly in the quest NOT to turn a silk purse into the ear of a sow I present this report I compiled in April 2019 which was sent to the connections of a certain Champion daughter of Street Cry who won 37 of her 43 starts ! The idea was to present a credible argument for this Champion Mare to visit Snitzel. It took 3 years to convince them but we finally got her to him in 2022 only for her to miss. She has returned this season and is at last in foal to Snitzy boy.

The interesting fact to come out of this in retrospect is that when I wrote it Snitzel had just one minor SW - Sandbar - from a Street Cry mare. Now he has 16 runners from Street Cry mares and 4 of them are SWs (including Group winner Exotic Ruby) - a remarkable 25% SW-runners ratio - about two and half times Snitzels overall strike rate. We still have to wait a few more years to see if my recommendation for the great mare will bear fruit. This breeding business is like a Mainland Cheese advert...

 

WINX –

A compatibility study with SNITZEL

 

SNITZEL – WINX

In the case of proven sires the best evidence for compatibility lies in historic results for the sire in question over the broodmare sirelines of the proposed mare.

This match of SNITZEL and WINX is an outcross mating with no duplications inside 5 generations. Please also note I have included the results of a study on SNITZEL’s strong compatibility with “outcross mares”.

Surprisingly SNITZEL has just one foal to race from a mare by Street Cry, the sire of WINX, and it is the multiple Sydney stakeswinner Sandbar who also ran 2^nd to Champion 2YO Written By in the Pago Pago Stakes (Gr3) and 4^th in The Autumn Sun’s Golden Rose (Gr1). This is of course an amazing 100% strike rate from a sample of one.

Rather incredibly, SNITZEL also has just one runner from a mare by WINX’s damsire Al Akbar and that runner is El Divino, who dead-heated with Group 1 winner Astern in the Group 3 Kindergarten Stakes at Randwick as a 2YO. El Divino is of course a half-brother to WINX herself. While mares by Al Akbar’s sire Success Express have proved highly compatible with SNITZEL producing 2 Group 1 performers – Shamus Award (WS Cox Plate & Australian Guineas) and Scratch Me Lucky - from just 5 runners to date.

So, both WINX’s sire, damsire and damsire’s sire have a 42.9% SW/runners ratio including 6 winners from just 7 foals to race (see below). Quite a remarkable feat.

SHAMUS AWARD (AUS) 2010 c, by Snitzel - Sunset Express, by Success Express. 2 wins at 1600m, 2050m, A$2,473,500, MVRC WS Cox P., Gr.1, VRC Australian Guineas, Gr.1, 2d VRC Sires' Produce S., Gr.2, MVRC Bill Stutt S., Gr.2, Mitchell McKenzie S., L, 3d MRC Caulfield Guineas, Gr.1, CF Orr S., Gr.1, VRC Maribyrnong P., Gr.3, MVRC Inglis Banner 2YO S., RL, MRC Chairman's S., L. Sire.

EL DIVINO (AUS) 2013, by Snitzel - Vegas Showgirl, by Al Akbar. 2 wins at 2, $192,260, ATC Kindergarten S., Gr.3, TAB More Than Just Winning 2YO H., 2d VRC Kensington S., L, MVRC Bendigo Bank H., L, 4th ATC Run to the Rose H., Gr.2, SAJC Redelva S., L.

SANDBAR (AUS) 2015, by Snitzel - Tallow, by Street Cry. 3 wins-2 at 2-at 1100m, 1200m, A$434,970, to 2018-19, ATC Lonhro P., L, Rosebud H., L, Turf Club 2YO H., 2d Roman Consul S., Gr.2, Pago Pago S., Gr.3, 4th Golden Rose S., Gr.1, Eskimo Prince S., Gr.3.

Scratch Me Lucky (AUS) 2011 g, by Snitzel - Radiant Star, by Success Express. 3 wins-1 at 2-to 1300m, A$383,255, ATC Australian Turf Club 2YO H., 2d ATC Sires' Produce S., Gr.1, Schweppervescence H., Gr.3, 4th ATC Champagne S., Gr.1.

Brabinger (AUS) 2014 c, by Snitzel - Sunset Express, by Success Express. 2 wins at 1200m in 2017-18 in Aust.

Successful Lass (AUS) 2010 f, by Snitzel - Class Success, by Success Express. Winner at 1000m in Aust.

 

SNITZEL – Outcross vs Inbreeding

 

With 10 crops now racing it is an opportune time to compare how SNITZEL performs as a stallion with mares that are outcrosses for him versus mares who are not.

To define outcross in this study I would determine a mare whose foal by SNITZEL would feature no duplications in the first 4 generations of the foal’s pedigree as being an outcross mare.

The non-outcross mares are the reverse – with SNITZEL they produce foals who feature at least one duplication within 4 generations.

As can be seen from the results below SNITZEL has proven more successful with mares who offer an outcross. The greatest disparity is seen in Gr1 winners with the outcross mares being nearly 3 times more likely than non-outcross mares, to produce a Group One winner by SNITZEL.

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SNITZEL – Produce Record for Outcross Mares

	Named Foals	Rnrs	Wnrs	Gr1 Wnrs	Gr1 wnrs/foals	GW	GWs/foals	SW	SW/foals	SW/ runners	SH	SHs/foals
Total	778	666	500	11	1.41%	39	5.01%	64	8.23%	9.61%	119	15.30%

 

 

SNITZEL – Produce Record for Non-Outcross Mares

	Named Foals	Rnrs	Wnrs	Gr1 Wnrs	Gr1 wnrs/foals	GW	GWs/foals	SW	SW/foals	SW/ runners	SH	SHs/foals
Total	386	308	224	2	0.52%	15	3.89%	25	6.48%	8.12%	47	12.18%

 

 

 

The Broader Cross

The broader cross of REDOUTE’S CHOICE (the sire of SNITZEL) and STREET CRY is gaining momentum and to date boasts 8 SWs from just 88 runners (9.1% SW/runners) from progeny bred with these two stallions in any configuration including:

Report for REDOUTE'S CHOICE (AUS) with STREET CRY (IRE) in any configuration

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Sex	Named Foals	Rnrs	Wnrs	GW	SW
Colts	55	40	30	0	4
Fillies	61	48	26	2	4
Total	116	88	56	2	8

 

STAY WITH ME (AUS) 2012, by Street Cry - Miss Finland, by Redoute's Choice. 3 wins at 1200m, 1600m, A$502,750, MRC Thousand Guineas, Gr.1, MVRC Atlantic Jewel S., L, 2d VRC Talindert S., L, 3d ATC Surround S., Gr.2, 4th ATC Randwick Guineas, Gr.1.

COL 'N' LIL (AUS) 2011, by Bradbury's Luck - Jyler, by Street Cry. 8 wins from 1200m to 2200m, A$497,000, BRC Lord Mayor's Cup, Gr.3, Toowoomba TC Weetwood H., L, BRC Sky Racing Shoot Out P., Roladuct Spiral Tubing H., Herbert Smith Freehills H., 2d BRC The Roses S., Gr.2, Tails H., L, GCTC Gold Coast Bracelet, L, 4th BRC Princess S., L.

SANDBAR (AUS) 2015, by Snitzel - Tallow, by Street Cry. 3 wins-2 at 2-at 1100m, 1200m, A$434,970, to 2018-19, ATC Lonhro P., L, Rosebud H., L, Turf Club 2YO H., 2d ATC Roman Consul S., Gr.2, Pago Pago S., Gr.3, 4th ATC Golden Rose S., Gr.1, Eskimo Prince S., Gr.3.

SAVATIANO (AUS) 2014, by Street Cry - Retsina, by Redoute's Choice. 5 wins to 1350m, A$480,610, to 2018-19, Wyong RC Mona Lisa S., L, ATC ANZ Bloodstock News H., McCarthy Homes H., McGrath Estate Agents ACT H., Scone RC Turangga Farm H., 2d VRC Blazer S., Gr.2, Newcastle JC Newmarket H., Gr.3, Tibbie S., Gr.3, 3d ATC Millie Fox S., Gr.2, VRC Hong Kong Jockey Club S., Gr.3.

TREKKING (AUS) 2014, by Street Cry - Outdoor, by Redoute's Choice. 5 wins-1 at 2-at 1100m, 1200m, A$422,795, to 2018-19, MRC Testa Rossa S., L, ATC Schweppes 2YO P., E Group Security H., Campbelltown Catholic Club H., Ranvet Power Formula H., 2d Canberra RC Black Opal S., Gr.3, 3d MVRC Red Anchor S., Gr.3, ATC Rosebud H., L, 4th ATC Maurice McCarten H., Gr.3, MRC HDF McNeil S., Gr.3, VRC MSS Security Sprint H., L.

TELPERION (AUS) 2013, by Street Cry - Yavanna, by Redoute's Choice. Winner at 2, A$482,100, ATC Lonhro P., L, 2d ATC Sires' Produce S, Gr.1, 4th ATC Golden Slipper S., Gr.1, Skyline S., Gr.2.

DOUBT DEFYING (AUS) 2013, by Not a Single Doubt - Sarthemare, by Street Cry. 8 wins-1 at 2-from 1200m to 1800m, A$423,825, to 2018-19, Sale Cup, L, ATC Cellarbrations H., Gold Coast S., BRC Ascot Green P., DF Interiors P., SCTC Coastline BMW 4 Series H., GCTC Sky Racing 2YO H.

ALUCINARI (AUS) 2012, by Street Cry - Hallucinates, by Redoute's Choice. 3 wins-1 at 2-at 1100m, A$193,285, Scone RC Denise's Joy S., L, ATC Tab.com.au H.

 

 

Clues To Compatibility

The compatibility shared by Redoute’s Choice and Street Cry comes as no surprise to pedigree analysts as both sires share enough common factors within their pedigrees to be labelled “genetically intricate” relatives.

Each are by sires (Danehill & Machiavellian) who carry a close duplication of Native Dancer

Each are by sires (Danehill & Machiavellian) who boast a Ribot-line sire on their damlines i.e. His Majesty and Hoist The Flag

Each are by sires (Danehill & Machiaveliian) who trace tail-female to “blue hen” ancestress Natalma, the 3^rd dam of each in fact.

Redoute’s Choice and Street Cry are each from mares who feature a male line of Palestine (Coeur Volant II & Pall Mall respectively) and a female line of Hornbeam – damsire of Lunchtime and Troy respectively.

SUMMARY

I believe there is a very strong argument for SNITZEL as the prime candidate for a match with WINX based on the data presented above (including the outcross research on SNITZEL). These results show excellent compatibility factors for SNITZEL based on provefn results to date.

I find it near impossible to imagine any similar commercial sires being able to boast such strong compatibility factors. Ultimately, I also believe SNITZEL would also be the most suitable match on type for WINX. On pedigree alone SNITZEL looks well ahead of the competition.

 

Peter Jenkins

15 April, 2019

[PWJ]

8 minutes ago, curious said:

Great thanks. Presumably similar to the latter if buying a yearling or horse to race?

Yes, except that with a young horse by a sire with at least two to three crops racing you have a proven template of how that stallion works genetically. Which broodmare sire and sirelines work and which do not. Unproven sires are a terrible risk. 80-90% of them fail