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A question


pete

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I've just looked at the pedigrees .. doesn't do much for me and is not something I'd be interested in other than the Secretariat in the broodmare line of Wootton Bassett,  but I guess a lot is resting on Avantage.   As Colin Jillings used to say.. 70% is the broodmare 🙂 .

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2 hours ago, pete said:

Would you pay $57,125 for a 2.5% share of a yearling?

Even if I had that kind of money to splash around I know what my answer would be.

No, but then TA wants to win the 2-year-old million each year, that is the motivation, that is the sales spiel

Looking at Boxing Day races, some pretty classy horseflesh went for a lot less

Wild Night - 50k

Pendragon - 110k

Campionessa - 60k

Molly Bloom - 150k

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2 hours ago, pete said:

Would you pay $57,125 for a 2.5% share of a yearling?

Even if I had that kind of money to splash around I know what my answer would be.

Not for 2.5%, although I have had 10% in a few slow ones!😀

The TA/Coolmore partnership  should get more than their money back with the progeny over time. 

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I wouldn’t in a filly but a colt possibly if I had the money. 
 

However having said that in the 300k to 700k market in Australia (MM and Inglis) I think that the fillies overall offer a better risk verse’s investment. 

Disclosure: I’ve just invested (5%) in a MM Filly (with Australian Bloodstock) to be trained by Gerard Ryan at a fraction of that money and the dam won 8 races and $500k in the USA. 
Wish me luck 😂
 

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1 hour ago, Maximus said:

Secretariat....aaahhhh!

Just the thought of him brings joy to Maxi's world.

MM

Believe it or not Secretariat had his first start over the long weekend of Thanksgiving at Aqueduct NY in 1971.
Anyway I went to the Saturday meet and I think Secretariat started on the Monday or vice versa!

All was not completely lost as 8 to 10 years later I was able to visit Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard in Newmarket and only 6 years ago we went and saw Frankel at Banstead Manor Newmarket!

I guess that I’ve been blessed in a few things horse wise!
 

 

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2 hours ago, Buller Rep said:

I wouldn’t in a filly but a colt possibly if I had the money. 
 

However having said that in the 300k to 700k market in Australia (MM and Inglis) I think that the fillies overall offer a better risk verse’s investment. 

Disclosure: I’ve just invested (5%) in a MM Filly (with Australian Bloodstock) to be trained by Gerard Ryan at a fraction of that money and the dam won 8 races and $500k in the USA. 
Wish me luck 😂
 

Good luck, unfortunately you missed out on the Remutaka Classic, but I'm sure you will enjoy Sat anyway.

Ellis is spending up large, it is all part of the TA modus operandi.  Even though Veandercross was bought for $1500, nowadays to convince big time syndicate holders you have the horse to win the big races, you have to have the high purchase price.

 

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I think the risk for me would be that top class racemares don't seem to produce high class offspring very much.

I'm wondering how the syndicate owners who got into the Wolverine syndicate are feeling at the moment. She looks headed for the broodmare paddock in my opinion.

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1 hour ago, pete said:

I think the risk for me would be that top class racemares don't seem to produce high class offspring very much.

I'm wondering how the syndicate owners who got into the Wolverine syndicate are feeling at the moment. She looks headed for the broodmare paddock in my opinion.

True, I personally tend to think broodmares are often better with less racing or no racing at all  ie.  Parfore, Eight Carat.   As you say some of the bigger names that have retired later in their racing careers haven't produced to expectations.

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20 minutes ago, ngakonui grass said:

omo but i think before going to stud mares that have just finished racing should have a season off before being served.Many mares that finish racing go straight to the stallion,where as i believe they should have a good break.

Your post got me thinking about the old adage about mares improving whilst racing when in foal.

I always felt that was the case but this article uses statistics to prove otherwise. Interesting.

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/do-fillies-really-improve-when-racing-in-foal/

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1 hour ago, pete said:

Your post got me thinking about the old adage about mares improving whilst racing when in foal.

I always felt that was the case but this article uses statistics to prove otherwise. Interesting.

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/do-fillies-really-improve-when-racing-in-foal/

In my view, the use of statistics in horse racing is the biggest reason punters are unable to change their approach and ultimately win. Trainer stats, jockey stats, course stats, winning stats, breeding stats, barrier stats, track condition stats, distance stats, age stats, gender stats, gear change stats, weight stats - all used extensively, but telling you very little in relation to chance of a horse.

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My take on it and I am using experience here talking to my son in law is that (and PJ may agree here) a horse can be selected on confirmation first and then pedigree. Pedigree alone guarantees nothing.   Andrew only has a cursory look at the sales catalogue, and then views every horse and makes notes, which he takes into the auction ring.  Tavistock was a prime example of sight first and bought on that premise, and the fairy tale began. 

$57 grand for 2.5% share in a nag chosen by someone you don't know ,relying on their reputation alone,  a yearling to boot, so anything can go wrong before it hits the track so its potentially a money hole.  . My presumption is that there is no insurance on your investment, someone could elaborate for me on that. 

It never ceases to amaze me the amount money spent on thoroughbreds. Much cheaper for us gypsies.

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1 hour ago, mardigras said:

In my view, the use of statistics in horse racing is the biggest reason punters are unable to change their approach and ultimately win. Trainer stats, jockey stats, course stats, winning stats, breeding stats, barrier stats, track condition stats, distance stats, age stats, gender stats, gear change stats, weight stats - all used extensively, but telling you very little in relation to chance of a horse.

I suppose it is like tossing a coin 5 times, the chances of it being heads 5 times is 1 in 32.  The chance of the 6th.

throw being a head is still 1 in 2, but the chance of throwing 6 heads is 1 in 64

Relating it to horse racing, too much weighting is given to previous factors.

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9 minutes ago, Hesi said:

I suppose it is like tossing a coin 5 times, the chances of it being heads 5 times is 1 in 32.  The chance of the 6th.

throw being a head is still 1 in 2, but the chance of throwing 6 heads is 1 in 64

Relating it to horse racing, too much weighting is given to previous factors.

In the case of tossing a coin, to decide head/tail each has a 50% chance is based on knowing all there is to know about the coin and the tossing of it.

In the case of horse racing, the statistic has no relationship with chance.

With the coin toss it does. i.e. a future coin toss has a 50% chance of being a head. Statistics say that the chance of a coin toss being a head is 50%. The statistic aligns with the future chance.

In horse racing, none of the statistics relating to horse racing correlate to the chance of a horse in a future event.

Except for those where the statistic says there is zero chance or 100% chance. e.g. The statistic that says that 100% of the races run with one horse are won by the entrant (although in reality it might fall over/die etc). So if you get to bet on a race with only one entrant and you get better than your money back for backing it to win, the statistic would be useful.

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