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The Black Caps Cant!


Hesi

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Never seen so much fake news/bs published in the last week about their chances.

The simple fact of the matter, they are not good enough, 3 teams are vastly superior, should be a one sided affair tonight, as long as the rain does not intervene.

Actually that would be their only slim chance.  India bat first, match over reduced, NZ chasing a T20 type scenario, 190 off 20 overs.

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I see also, that India apparently dodged a bullet last night:classic_rolleyes:, chasing 148 in 20 overs may have been too much for them.

Did the author of the news item, not realise, that India have such batting firepower, they are capable of scoring at 7 runs per over for the full 50 overs

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NZ have played poorly the entire tournament. One game against SL which was such a short chase, it put no pressure on NZ. Very lucky to make SF. Many players in team not up to required level. Might have limited player/parental issue here. But still one of the biggest sports from a betting perspective. Games in World Cup on Betfair doing $150m each+. 

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9 minutes ago, mardigras said:

NZ have played poorly the entire tournament. One game against SL which was such a short chase, it put no pressure on NZ. Very lucky to make SF. Many players in team not up to required level. Might have limited player/parental issue here. But still one of the biggest sports from a betting perspective. Games in World Cup on Betfair doing $150m each+. 

So if you added in all the other betting agencies around the world, it is potentially close to a billion on each match?

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5 minutes ago, VC! said:

16 out of the last 20 World Cup matches have been won by the team batting first

The last 4 overs expecting to see the cricket ball hit into the Southern Hemisphere 

Might be a little late.

In my view, the wickets have been quite poor overall from an entertainment perspective. Pre tournament, there was ample talk of heaps of games being 350 - 400+. Very few have got close to that. Many scores under or around 240. Wickets have been variable and often slow.

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1 hour ago, mardigras said:

Might be a little late.

In my view, the wickets have been quite poor overall from an entertainment perspective. Pre tournament, there was ample talk of heaps of games being 350 - 400+. Very few have got close to that. Many scores under or around 240. Wickets have been variable and often slow.

Some of the wickets start off fine, but then seem to slow down around the 30 over mark.  Tennis ball bounce seems to be the term used to describe it

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1 minute ago, Hesi said:

Some of the wickets start off fine, but then seem to slow down around the 30 over mark.  Tennis ball bounce seems to be the term used to describe it

I didn't see many change. NZ games - both sides couldn't bat effectively except perhaps the game at The Oval. Even the current game has the situation where some think NZ is still a chance due to the nature of the pitch. It has made the odd game interesting as sides have struggled to chase down small scores until the final over or two.

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The reality is, NZ might squeeze out 250

India will hunt that down with 5-10 overs to spare, with Rahul and Sharma scoring tons, Kohli and Dhoni to finish it off.

Much the same as the Sri Lanka match

And Shikhar Dhawan, probably the classiest Indian batsman, watching on

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NZ probably value right now at around the $5-30 mark they will probably lose the match but will come out all guns a blazing the last 4 overs take an early wicket and come into around $3-75 at which point you trade out

Australia right now Value at $2-26 you will be able to back both teams within the first 10 overs for a profit 

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31 minutes ago, VC! said:

NZ probably value right now at around the $5-30 mark they will probably lose the match but will come out all guns a blazing the last 4 overs take an early wicket and come into around $3-75 at which point you trade out

Australia right now Value at $2-26 you will be able to back both teams within the first 10 overs for a profit 

Well above my unsophisticated level of betting Ian

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And, that is the thing I despise about social media, people are using it to have a go at Guptill, free speech I think they call it:classic_rolleyes:

Sure, he is out of form, confidence which is a big factor in cricket is shot, but leave out the personal stuff.

Cricket is a game of fine tolerances, these elite cricketers are very talented, they very quickly work out a batsmen's weaknesses and exploit it

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You’ll get there Alan, you don’t need tools like Betfair Angel or Betfair Pro you can do it yourself I’m as sceptical as they come why would someone sell a system if you can make a fortune yourself,in the long run the very select few will be trading against one another.

You said NZ should reach 250 that’s a fair call 10 runs an over from here on in

They will then be handed the new ball often an early wicket occurs  once this happens the price that was once $5-30 about the black caps has well and truly gone you’ve backed them at $5-30 to win you now lay them immediately at $3-75 to lose business is done you switch over to State of Origin for whom you have backed NSW to win the series after Qld had initially won the first origin match put ya feet up and crack open a tinny or if you’ve fallen from the more sophisticated side of the tree ya sipping on the finest of fine red wines

 

 

82 million matched on BF so far 

This is why we need a Universal TAB with a takeout rate of about 6% across all markets it would put an end to everyone else

 

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Agree re BetAngel etc. They are just tools. They don't make you win. They are promoted as if they can help you win, but if you can't understand or work out the scenarios that allow you to win, the tools aren't going to help. They may help you just lose faster as you think you can enter into more markets more often.

I use a tool, but I don't trade. The tool is one I wrote myself, but it wouldn't be any good if I didn't know how/what to bet on to profit. The tool just allows me  to do things through an interface that is easier to use than browser pages or company supplied apps.

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Unfortunately I’m not capable of writing sophisticated algorithms so I identify factors that are most important to myself 

The most important factor speed maps/race shape are my horses suited or not I know the expectations limitations of their ability what time are they likely to run there first 600 last 600 the final arbiter to Bet or not to Bet 

In the long run it’s all about profit it doesn’t matter how you get there

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6 minutes ago, VC! said:

The Black Caps CAN!!!!!!

Yes. again the wicket clearly helped. Another one very difficult to lift run rate when required. One batter could, even Dhoni couldn't. Went to 6 of the NZ games in the round robin. Sadly missed that as was a cracker. Back in NZ now.

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