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PJ Comp Round 12 split round Part 2 on Wed 28 Oct

Melbourne Spring 2020


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I've followed Melbourne spring racing for a very long time. I  don't think I've seen a market reaction to a Morphettville win that goes even close to today.

Russian Camelot winning the Derby - into favourite for the Melbourne Cup. An over reaction? I think so. In a typical year, the SA Derby winner would move into 80 - (that's probably as a minimum).

We'll see as time goes by, so this is an early start to this years events.

Many are thinking there aren't going to be foreign visitors. I am not convinced that is the case. Haggas bought a couple over for Autumn. And UK racing is getting close to a resumption I think. If the Euros come - 15s for Russian Camelot is going to look very short in my view. An SA Derby winner beating two horses that are currently at the 70s to 130s in the cup, is not something that would get me keen at this stage. Dalasan - you'd be struggling to take a bet on that horse at the moment.

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Having said that we are still looking at options as to whether we could bring him down for this year's Cup if we wanted to.

The Chosen One was fair cruising into the straight. Hope he can go on with it. And VC/I both have him having a very good preparation.

What a great race between the mighty Magical and Ghaiyyath - with Magical coming out on top. She is probably off to a race on Arc day. Armory ran very well and holds noms for the cups. Also,

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The horse must have some engine though, the way it was ridden.  Treated it's rivals with contempt, by sitting at the back, 3 wide for most of the race

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Russian Camelot very impressive, stepping up from 1600m to 2500m in one go was the reason I left it out...and it delivered big time. But I agree its a huge overreaction in the market. The horse hasn't beaten much - yet.

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Hesi said:

The horse must have some engine though, the way it was ridden.  Treated it's rivals with contempt, by sitting at the back, 3 wide for most of the race

Yep, against SA derby horses. I wouldn't go near it at 100. The time I will have to check, but I didn't rate the 2nd or 3rd horses for the cup, highly. And one of them was a derby winner.

Edited by mardigras
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I checked the overall performance - and the performance is average (to me) - certainly no where near super quality. As per a report I read - I think the horse is being backed based on hype. There has been hype about this horse for a while - and people are following it with their money.

Delicacy who was a decent horse - was backed into about 40s from memory after winning the Derby. Multiple high class winner in very quick times. Sadly never had the chance to see what could happen there after an injury.

Good luck if you're on it.

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There was little depth in the SA derby yesterday, I couldn’t entertain backing it even if it was twice that quote

Speaking of hype the new Hype (kid) on the block is Masked Crusader possibly backing up for the Scone guineas this coming weekend

I also see Catalyst is being aimed at the Golden Eagle which I thought would be the case so Is Jennifer Eccles and throw in Masked Crusader might be a Hyped race coming up

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Team Hawkes love the Cox Plate, they also keep their cards very close to their chest, very tough stable to ride for

Master of Wine I much preferred when he had an extra zero on the end of his current price, He ran a credible race in the QE11 ... I myself think he is better on top of the ground 

I haven’t backed anything in the cup yet laid a few tough gig it’s like quickest finger first as so many others looking to lay horses that won’t start in the Cup

With Covid19 hard to back with any confidence I have a select group who I would like to back but I need the right price

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Posted (edited)

Was reminded today that Russian Camelot is 200 days younger than the Sthn Hemisphere 3yos  foaled 29 March, I think) so, Mustelid Maths 101 says he'll be about ...200 days ... younger than the Sthn Hemisphere 4yos in the Spring ..or to put it another way, he's got a lot of growing to do and maybe that why all the excitement. He's really only a 3yo come Cup Day 2020

Way to short in the market at present for mine

Edited by Maximus
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32 minutes ago, Maximus said:

Was reminded today that Russian Camelot is 200 days younger than the Sthn Hemisphere 3yos  foaled 29 March, I think) so, Mustelid Maths 101 says he'll be about ...200 days ... younger than the Sthn Hemisphere 4yos in the Spring ..or to put it another way, he's got a lot of growing to do and maybe that why all the excitement. He's really only a 3yo come Cup Day 2020

Way to short in the market at present for mine

A few people have suggested to Danny O’Brien to take him to the UK (if they get up and racing) to contest the UK Derby in September 

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I don't get hung up on the age thing. NH bred 3yos come to Aus and race in the cup - no problem. I would imagine (although don't know) he would be treated the same as a NH bred 3yo in the cup, even though he has already been here. At this point, it is a lot of hype - and maybe the hype is going to be well founded. 

From a value prospect - the UK Derby is worth a lot more than any Melbourne Cup - by a country mile. Interesting stuff.

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4 minutes ago, VC! said:

Epsom Derby to be run on July 4th

Russian Camelot to run in Makybe Diva into Turnbull into CP/CC  grand final MC

is he really that good? I seem to recall all the hype from not so long ago about Alligator Blood and Catalyst. Both had their bubbles burst, to coin a topical phrase.

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12 minutes ago, VC! said:

Epsom Derby to be run on July 4th

Russian Camelot to run in Makybe Diva into Turnbull into CP/CC  grand final MC

If he is up to that, I'd have gone to the Derby. You can only run the derby there once - you can run the Melbourne Cup a number of times.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, VC! said:

A little misreading my post he’s not going to the UK

They just released the date for the Derby

No worries VC - I'd gathered that. My post was more about not what they are planning, but what I'd do. Early July is ample time to get over there (and back if required). Any horse can run in the Cup (if able to get a start). Getting your horse into the Derby is a one year proposition (and far more significant as a value proposition than winning any Melbourne Cup).

Edited by mardigras
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, mardigras said:

No worries VC - I'd gathered that. My post was more about not what they are planning, but what I'd do. Early July is ample time to get over there (and back if required). Any horse can run in the Cup (if able to get a start). Getting your horse into the Derby is a one year proposition (and far more significant as a value proposition than winning any Melbourne Cup).

This from Danny O’Brien

RC was inoculated earlier this year and had been booked with IRT to fly to the UK on 20/5 to contest the Derby on 6/6. Unfortunately COVID has intervened 

 

Yip Mardi if he won the Derby he’d be worth 30 million plus he could win the Cup and his worth would be far less

Edited by VC!
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  • 2 weeks later...

From Danny O'Brien. interesting.

O'Brien told Racing.com on Tuesday that his boom three-year-old Russian Camelot would be likely to miss the Melbourne Cup this spring and instead aim at the Caulfield Cup if proposed changes to the Melbourne Racing Club spring program are ratified by Racing Victoria and confirmed by early next week.

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Posted (edited)

Some interesting runners tonight at the Curragh.

As it stands, those horses requiring quarantining are only open to those on a one way ticket. It's not a done deal, but they will require an application to bring in a horse that is not planning on staying. Along with a few issues around who can come in with the horses. All this will need to be sorted pretty soon otherwise I'd expect many to not come because it's in the too hard basket.

Early on we have a couple of Williams owned horses in Buckhurst and Latrobe. Buckhurst was touted last year, and there has been some money for him in the cup this year. Those may not have the issue of the quarantine rules as Williams might choose to home them here. VC will well remember Buckhurst from last year's discussions. What's your view this year VC?

I don't think Latrobe is a 2 mile horse and I don't think he is one of the better derby winners eithers.

Also in that race is Sir Dragonet. I don't mind him, if he comes. This race is a fairly short affair over just 2000m so a little unusual also if the aim is 3200m in November. 

Later in the evening we also have the Vintage Crop stakes. Williams has two more in this in Master Of Reality (ran well last year), and Twilight Payment. Listening to the Williams camp, you get mixed messages. Lloyd has suggested that Master Of Reality will race the season in the UK. Nick has suggested this race is the start of is 2020 Melbourne Cup campaign. We'll see what they are saying after tonight.

Twilight Payment is a pretty decent horse. But he's getting on. So if they are ever to think about the cup, I'd say it would have to be this year. Whether he is up to that, not so sure.

Up against these two is Falcon Eight who was strongly touted last year. Hasn't lived up to that but he adds to the mix. Also in the event is the Irish Derby winner from last year, Sovereign. Hasn't raced since winning that by 6 lengths, beating the likes of Anthony Van Dyck, Norway, Broome and last years solid cup performer, the injured Il Paradiso.

Interesting for me to that the current favourite for the even  is Twilight Payment.

And of course, there is the Irish Derby on tonight. Might look at Dawn Patrol at 18s. Who knows whether the likes of Williams will look at any of these with a view to buying one for the cups.

 

Edited by mardigras
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