Hesi Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Okay, we will add you in as well Pete, even though you can be a bit of a hot head 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 49 minutes ago, Hesi said: Okay, we will add you in as well Pete, even though you can be a bit of a hot head Me? A hothead? I'm the calmest person you know. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Globederby19 Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 3 hours ago, curious said: he moment where everyone else is saying buy and I'm saying the market is over-priced. Sell. Overpriced would be a vast understatement Curious. Trying to put it all into context is not to difficult as in 1985 our mortgage interest rate(country wide building society) went from 14% to 21% overnight. Criminal really, but it was only on a 40,000 sum at most, and we managed, just. Extrapolate that into todays market .A 600 to 700 k mortgage eg and in a few years the percentage goes up a few points , which it will . Eventually. The bubble will burst and NZ will become a basket case if it isn't already. Unfortunately/or fortunately depending on your view, those still with money will feed off of the carcass . I digress. Keep up the posts guys ,I find them incredibly edifying. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 48 minutes ago, Globederby19 said: Overpriced would be a vast understatement Curious. Trying to put it all into context is not to difficult as in 1985 our mortgage interest rate(country wide building society) went from 14% to 21% overnight. Criminal really, but it was only on a 40,000 sum at most, and we managed, just. Extrapolate that into todays market .A 600 to 700 k mortgage eg and in a few years the percentage goes up a few points , which it will . Eventually. The bubble will burst and NZ will become a basket case if it isn't already. Unfortunately/or fortunately depending on your view, those still with money will feed off of the carcass . I digress. Keep up the posts guys ,I find them incredibly edifying. Exactly. What you can afford at 2,5% becomes a lot different a few years down the track if interest rates go to 10% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 I can see why the Reserve Bank wanted low interest rates because of Covid but they clearly didn't factor in the Kiwi propensity to invest in property. These rates at the moment are akin to throwing petrol on a BBQ. We paid 18% on our first mortgage. As Rees said, what a bloody struggle that was. Anyone who doesn't think that couldn't happen again is ignoring history at their peril. As an aside, my best mate sold his parents' deceased estate in Mangere Bridge yesterday at auction. Really ordinary house but enough land to subdivide. The price? A cool 1.9 million. Totally crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 As I understand it, private mum and dad investors, all with security are banding together, with the easy availability of money, to people with security, and buying properties that can take several new dwellings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 (edited) You'll be surprised to learn gents, that Max is also a contrarian - or, as my dear departed Mother would say, "just contrary". There's something quite satisfying about taking the opposite view, say, at a BBQ or around the dinner table, and watching people respond to your 'curly questions'. Eve if you're just being 'devil's advocate. By the way, Pete, great picking yesterday in PJs Comp ...oh, and I think you have posted here the opposite of what you intended... Anyone who doesn't think that couldn't happen again is ignoring history at their peril. MM Edited November 1, 2020 by Maximus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, Maximus said: You'll be surprised to learn gents, that Max is also a contrarian - or, as my dear departed Mother would say, "just contrary". There's something quite satisfying about taking the opposite view, say, at a BBQ or around the dinner table, and watching people respond to your 'curly questions'. Eve if you're just being 'devil's advocate. By the way, Pete, great picking yesterday in PJs Comp ...oh, and I think you have posted here the opposite of what you intended... Anyone who doesn't think that couldn't happen again is ignoring history at their peril. MM Nah, I would never have picked it Maxi 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevie Nicks Off Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 23 minutes ago, Maximus said: You'll be surprised to learn gents, that Max is also a contrarian Not one little bit surprised Maxi, we’ve saved ourJoker for the team running last and you’ve saved your Joker for the team coming first 🤔 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 4 hours ago, Stevie Nicks Off said: Not one little bit surprised Maxi, we’ve saved ourJoker for the team running last and you’ve saved your Joker for the team coming first 🤔 can't wait, mate... hopefully you will meet the same fate as the last team that took the First v Last Joker play....I'm a tad concerned that we have a case of Johnny Still Angry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Flemington currently Good 4 with a nice day today and 29 degrees tomorrow. It could get uncomfortably firm for some of the European raiders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 2, 2020 Author Share Posted November 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, pete said: Flemington currently Good 4 with a nice day today and 29 degrees tomorrow. It could get uncomfortably firm for some of the European raiders. Love it there when it gets warm (which it hasn't been for a fair while). Remember one year at high 20s, low 30s. High degree of burns along with the usual high alcohol intake. Many just could not handle the heat - paramedics were pretty busy. Haven't missed too many Flemington carnivals over the last 20+ years. But not at this one (nor is anyone else really 🙂 ) Might be getting uncomfortably firm for a few locals as well - of which there aren't many. Vast majority of field is NH or NZ bred. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 On 10/31/2020 at 5:54 PM, mardigras said: Looks like King Of Leogrance is the one - draws barrier 18! Spot on Mardi gate 18 = Automatic scratching Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 2, 2020 Author Share Posted November 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, VC! said: Spot on Mardi gate 18 = Automatic scratching Now Warning becomes the new 18! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 12 minutes ago, mardigras said: Now Warning becomes the new 18! Yes Punters be Warned Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Mardi do you know if the gate remains vacant, or will Dashing Willoughby come into gate 18? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 2, 2020 Author Share Posted November 2, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, VC! said: Mardi do you know if the gate remains vacant, or will Dashing Willoughby come into gate 18? Dashing will go into 18. And I'm putting money on him. (Mistake when I wrote about Warning - eyesight going!) Edited November 2, 2020 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) Track looks perfect at Flemington Race 1 Winner led all the way Race 2 Winner came from the back in a slowly run race 7 lengths slower than the class average How good would it be to be there weather looks perfect, I reckon I’d even have a red😎 Edited November 3, 2020 by VC! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 3, 2020 Author Share Posted November 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, VC! said: Track looks perfect at Flemington Race 1 Winner led all the way Race 2 Winner came from the back in a slowly run race 7 lengths slower than the class average How good would it be to be there weather looks perfect, I reckon I’d even have a red😎 Yeah, would love to be there. It's a great carnival with generally brilliant racing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stodge Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 A 1-2-3 for European trained runners and a fine fourth for the Kiwis with THE CHOSEN ONE. Some of the fancied Oz horses just didn't get involved. I suppose some will ask how to end the European dominance - the problem is the Melbourne Cup has made itself attractive by the purse on offer. It's about the same value as the Breeders Cup Classic at Keeneland on Saturday. As the saying has it "money talks, men walk". The Arc is only worth £1.45 million but it's Europe's richest race and you can see why Flemington looks attractive to Europeans. Reduce the pot if you want to dissuade the pot-hunters and the likes of Coolmore are quite happy to send serious runners for the kind of purses on offer in the Australian spring which dovetails so well with the European season these days. TWILIGHT PAYMENT was superb - given a magnificent front-running ride and found that vital couple of lengths off the home turn. He had been hinting at a resurgence after an 8-length romp in the Group 2 Curragh Cup and a decent third in the Irish St Leger. He's rated 115 which means he's a serious horse but as a 7-y-o I'd have said his best days were behind him. TIGER MOTH ran a fine race in defeat - I'm sure the wide draw didn't help but whether he'd have won with a more direct journey is debatable. Let's not forget he was second in the Irish Derby to SANTIAGO and he was much less experienced than many. I still think in the UK and Ireland he's a 2400m horse and I wonder if he'll be campaigned as such. Three runs in the Melbourne Cup and a second and two thirds speaks volumes for the consistency of PRINCE OF ARRAN and the training of Charlie Fellowes. He didn't get the best of runs and might have won another day. Can he come back yet again as an 8-y-o in 2021? I wouldn't rule it out and to put this into context, ENABLE beat him seven lengths at Kempton in September. ASHRUN finished tenth but beaten only five lengths and I'm sure would have been closer on slower ground. MASTER OF REALITY couldn't reproduce last year's effort and neither STRATUM ALBION nor DASHING WILLOUGHBY ever figured. That leaves ANTHONY VAN DYCK and a sense of deja vu for Aidan O'Brien who lost CLIFFS OF MOHER in this two years ago. A terrible tragedy for all connected with the horse and let's not forget he was a Derby winner in 2019 and won the Foy this year. Doubtless he'd have joined the stallion ranks at Coolmore but that's not to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Thanks for that I asked this question elsewhere, but why would they bring a Derby winner to Melbourne, when his stud value is already so high and even a win in the MC, would hardly enhance that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 3, 2020 Author Share Posted November 3, 2020 I think reducing the pot would still bring the Europeans. The approach in Australia is not to breed stayers. Nearly all the non-classic staying races are dominated by NH bred horses - even when most of them are trained in Oz. Heck, even one of the classic races (albeit in SA), was won by a NH bred. The breeding focus towards stayers is far greater there than in Oz (or NZ). Even the great Makybe Diva is NH bred and was already basically a SH 4yo when having her first start. The racing programs are so vastly different between Australia and Europe. There are many racedays in Australia where the average race distance is around the 1300m -1400m level. They aren't interested in running staying events generally so the major handicaps become the focus of buying up NH horses, and NH trainers bring their (mostly) second rate horses to Australia. They won't lower it to 1 or 2 million, so even at $3 or $4m, the internationals would likely come. It's easy money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stodge Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Hesi said: Thanks for that I asked this question elsewhere, but why would they bring a Derby winner to Melbourne, when his stud value is already so high and even a win in the MC, would hardly enhance that. I wonder if AVD would have been a shuttle stallion so it wouldn't have done his profile any harm in the southern hemisphere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, Stodge said: I wonder if AVD would have been a shuttle stallion so it wouldn't have done his profile any harm in the southern hemisphere. Good point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 On 11/1/2020 at 3:35 PM, Stevie Nicks Off said: Not one little bit surprised Maxi, we’ve saved ourJoker for the team running last and you’ve saved your Joker for the team coming first 🤔 how did that work out for you Stevie? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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