And so let the blood letting begin

[curious]

I'd say it is RITA that is full of old men leaning against the rails scratching their derriere and blaming everyone else and getting very well paid for doing so.

Also, I'm supposed to be a lifetime horseperson but never heard of a "remedial canter". Any one advise what that is?

 

[curious]

Bernard's Briefing - 22 May

• 
• 

Bernard Saundry

22 May 2020

Last Friday’s release of the Draft Calendar for next season has generated discussion throughout the media and online, especially around the 10 venues where it is proposed there be no racing during 2020-21.

 

Acknowledging that the draft is currently out for consultation, and that the consultation period runs until 15 June, we believe that NZTR should take this opportunity to present a view as to what that future might look like.

 

As outlined on Friday, New Zealand’s thoroughbred foal crop has declined 28% since 2005, leaving us with a smaller pool of horses available to race now and in the future. The size of our foal crop has a direct influence on starter numbers and, even prior to COVID-19 the reduction in races was not keeping pace with the reduction in available horses to race.

 

When NZTR went out during 2019 to discuss the future of various venues we talked of regional plans and regional solutions where clubs would meet and determine the future look of racing in their area. Our plan at that time was to introduce change gradually, dependent upon other aspects such as the introduction of All-Weather tracks. The announcement from Rt Hon Winston Peters, regarding PGF funding for two further tracks at Awapuni and Riccarton, means the three venues initially proposed in the Messara Report will soon be a reality.

 

Across the regions, the largest decline in starts from training centres has occurred in the Central region which has dropped 29% since 2009. The average field size in the CD has fallen during the same time to the extent that it is lower than the national average field size of 10.49.

 

Accordingly, the Central Region will have 16% fewer licences that were run in FY19. The venues without licences – Wairoa, Gisborne and Waipukurau – are being encouraged to talk with Hawke’s Bay Racing Inc. In the case of the Poverty Bay Turf Club, these talks have moved quickly, and the club already has a proposal with HBRI which would see them hosting a race day at Hastings.

 

Among the principles outlined in the NZTR Venue Plan consultation document of 2019 was the need to deliver racing in the most efficient, effective and commercial way, which would see us intensifying racing at selected venues. Tactics to deliver this also included reducing the servicing costs of meetings and reducing the costs to participants.

 

The costs of servicing meetings on the East Coast, along with the burden on participants to transport themselves and horses there are not insignificant. A strong Hastings will serve the region well and build on the base of horses currently trained there. The Waipukurau club, just 40 minutes’ drive from Hastings, relocating would also help strengthen Hastings.

 

Moving to the South, the Draft Calendar includes 14% fewer licences than in FY19, with Blenheim, Motukarara, Waikouaiti and Omakau the tracks listed for closure. Blenheim, which was due to celebrate its centenary at its present venue in April, is unfortunately located in a region with no horse population and where it is expensive to transport them. While attempts were made to find a carnival to work around the Blenheim meeting this proved unviable. Motukarara, another with no local horse population, is in close proximity to Riccarton. Both clubs have been encouraged to enter into discussions with the CJC to race either at Riccarton or Ashburton.

 

In the case of Waikouaiti, removing the meeting from a busy period of racing in the area and giving the club the possibility to move to a meeting at Wingatui later in the summer would strengthen the remaining meetings in the South Island over Christmas/New Year.

 

Encouraging Oamakau to race at Cromwell, in conjunction with the Otago RC meeting two days later would create a mini carnival in early summer, giving the region an opportunity to develop a special event.

 

Many of the clubs concerned have, at some stage of their existence had discussions with other clubs in their region when considering their future and NZTR is encouraging these talks to continue as they work to find a solution.

 

In the Northern region the number of starts produced from training centres in the Auckland area has fallen by 36% since 2009. Fewer than 25% of all horses trained in the North came from the Auckland sub-region. This indicates that we do not need the number of meetings or venues that we currently have in the wider Auckland sub-region to cater for the local population of horses.

 

The Northern region would have 13% fewer licences than were run in FY19, but even with the changes proposed the Auckland sub-region will still hold 35% of the meetings in the north.

 

If we are serious about creating one world-class venue in the metropolitan area it requires the three clubs in the Auckland sub-region to come together and develop a plan for the future and create a supercity racing club and experience.

 

NZTR’s view of how this might look include Avondale hosting key race days at Ellerslie where, with the investment of the clubs assets, they would be able to hold potentially the richest races in the country. Avondale could yield returns for their local community as well as providing them with the ability to fund their future racing at Ellerslie.

 

The other two impacted clubs in the North, the Whakatane RC and Waipa RC are encouraged to enter into communication with other venues. Whakatane with the other Bay of Plenty clubs, Tauranga and Rotorua, while Waipa could potentially hold its Cup meeting at Te Rapa.

 

The 20/21 proposed calendar includes 33 Thoroughbred venues across both islands to ensure New Zealanders can still access and enjoy racing. The clubs at the 10 venues concerned all have long and rich histories and, it is our intention to see new chapters added to these histories as we adapt and create a new future.

[curious]

I'd like to know where the evidence is for this?

The size of our foal crop has a direct influence on starter numbers and, even prior to COVID-19 the reduction in races was not keeping pace with the reduction in available horses to race.

It seems to me a more logical hypothesis would  be that the cause of the decline in the foal crop is the same as the cause of the decline in starter numbers and it might be a good idea to try fixing that cause/those causes to remedy both problems.

I fail to see how they still don't see this and now they are closing down racing completely in some regions, again with no evidence or cost/benefit analysis transparent, and contrary to the recommendations of the Messara report. Santa may be coming earlier than expected to turn out the lights Barry?

 

Edited May 23, 2020 by curious

[Freda]

It's just a crock...and I don't see anything specific to the Messara report in what is happening - even [ as Curious has pointed out ] closing tracks was not supposed to disenfranchise a whole region.

The costs of transporting horses and staff, etc, to country meetings, has been alluded to, and even Barry has indicated that such costs are unpalatable.

However apart from broadcasting/tab costs, all  the rest is a cost to owners/trainers.   No-one need go if they object to the cost and travel, but the fact remains that so many do, and look forward to the experience year on year.   Many of those clubs offer transport subsidies - I know Hokitika did, and very nice trophies as well.  The hospitality of Gisborne-Wairoa is known country-wide.

As Reefton has posted elsewhere, the day that punters don't bet and owners don't bring their horses, they'll put up the white flag.  But that hasn't happened yet.

[Hesi]

6 hours ago, Freda said:

It's just a crock...and I don't see anything specific to the Messara report in what is happening - even [ as Curious has pointed out ] closing tracks was not supposed to disenfranchise a whole region.

The costs of transporting horses and staff, etc, to country meetings, has been alluded to, and even Barry has indicated that such costs are unpalatable.

However apart from broadcasting/tab costs, all  the rest is a cost to owners/trainers.   No-one need go if they object to the cost and travel, but the fact remains that so many do, and look forward to the experience year on year.   Many of those clubs offer transport subsidies - I know Hokitika did, and very nice trophies as well.  The hospitality of Gisborne-Wairoa is known country-wide.

As Reefton has posted elsewhere, the day that punters don't bet and owners don't bring their horses, they'll put up the white flag.  But that hasn't happened yet.

This is a real worry

For a start, more and more punters are getting au fait with the Aus scene, and how could you not like it, the quality, even for provincial racing is a lot higher

Then, big question mark on stakes for 20/21.  They have to keep them at 19/20 levels, or owners will start not to bring their horses.  Now the budgeted payout to Thoroughbred, is going to be a lot less, so the only way around keeping stakes up, will be a whole lot less races and flattening out the stakes structure.  No point offering excessive money for group races, when most connections with a decent horse will be off to group racing in Aus.

Contraction of the industry for a while, some inspirational racing leaders come along, and hopefully rebuild from a stronger base

[curious]

12 minutes ago, Hesi said:

Then, big question mark on stakes for 20/21.  They have to keep them at 19/20 levels,

I don't see that they can have a prayer of anytrhing like that. Half per event maybe?

 

[Hesi]

5 minutes ago, curious said:

I don't see that they can have a prayer of anytrhing like that. Half per event maybe?

 

That would be a total disaster, and see many leave NZ racing, I'm sure Freda will confirm.

Probably what RITA and McKenzie are grappling with at the moment

[curious]

15 minutes ago, Hesi said:

That would be a total disaster, and see many leave NZ racing, I'm sure Freda will confirm.

Probably what RITA and McKenzie are grappling with at the moment

It is a disaster but how could you see anything different?  It has taken a decade or 2 to get here but we are here. There's nothing from the code body or RITA to suggest different.

You posted it yourself in the BdL article above: "We know that available prizemoney on 2019/20 assessments will be down 40 to 50 percent for the 2020/21 season on the expected result."

I think 50% is optimistic. Need to get used to it.

Everyone does or should know it or they are dreaming. Have to get used to the idea and start rebuilding from there but current thinking and actions seem to mostly be counter productive to that cause.

Edited May 23, 2020 by curious

[Hesi]

11 minutes ago, curious said:

It is a disaster but how could you see anything different?  It has taken a decade or 2 to get here but we are here. There's nothing from the code body or RITA to suggest different.

You posted it yourself in the BdL article above: "We know that available prizemoney on 2019/20 assessments will be down 40 to 50 percent for the 2020/21 season on the expected result."

I think 50% is optimistic.

Everyone does or should know it or they are dreaming. Have to get used to the idea and start rebuilding from there but current thinking and actions seem to mostly be counter productive to that cause.

That's why they will cut the number of races dramatically, and trim a lot of money off the elite races(maybe not so much the 2 and 3 year old racing), so they can preserve reasonable stakes for the maidens and lower grades.  No point putting up $400K for G1 races, when most of our best horses will be in Aus.  A lot of tricky manoeuvring and modelling to do, sorting this all out

[curious]

9 minutes ago, Hesi said:

That's why they will cut the number of races dramatically,

Where will the horses run then or will they just be pulled and with drastically less events how will the wagering revenue be generated to support them?

Kevin Gray was quoted today:

“I have still got 15 of my better horses still out in the paddock because we don’t know what we are doing (in terms of racing).

“But there is nothing (cases) around the Manawatu and why can’t we get going? We are sitting back and not allowed to do much.

“We should be doing a little bit more.”

That's because they've scheduled so few races for the balance of the season. I assume because they don't have the money to run more or start sooner. I'd say a lot of those horses will be in the paddock or other careers for a long time.

[Hesi]

4 minutes ago, curious said:

Where will the horses run then or will they just be pulled and with drastically less events how will the wagering revenue be generated to support them?

Kevin Gray was quoted today:

“I have still got 15 of my better horses still out in the paddock because we don’t know what we are doing (in terms of racing).

“But there is nothing (cases) around the Manawatu and why can’t we get going? We are sitting back and not allowed to do much.

“We should be doing a little bit more.”

That's because they've scheduled so few races for the balance of the season. I assume because they don't have the money to run more or start sooner. I'd say a lot of those horses will be in the paddock or other careers for a long time.

Aus, look at some of the amounts being wagered on the TAB for Aus racing

[curious]

29 minutes ago, Hesi said:

Aus, look at some of the amounts being wagered on the TAB for Aus racing

So if gross wagering revenue continues at that level, will that support stakes distributions of 50% of the FY20 levels?

I thought the TAB were losing money at those levels?

 

Edited May 23, 2020 by curious

[Hesi]

Pass, I don't have that data

I would think the wagering on Aus will only increase, as people become more familiar with the horses and the form

 

[Freda]

My reference was to the rationale of chopping small tracks out,  when some of those tracks do actually good turnovers.....not the overall disaster that we have become.

If the piroplasmosis matter isn't sorted,  then our 'elite' horses will be staying here.

Some might think good, more local interest, but I am ever suspicious. 

Watch Pike and co. wail then about  no aspirational stakemoney.  My fear is that, instead of running with a flat stakes structure, NZTR will bend over for them and chop the minimum to hell. 

 

 

[Freda]

1 hour ago, Hesi said:

That would be a total disaster, and see many leave NZ racing, I'm sure Freda will confirm.

Probably what RITA and McKenzie are grappling with at the moment

I dont see evidence of much grappling to date. 

[curious]

22 minutes ago, Hesi said:

Pass, I don't have that data

I would think the wagering on Aus will only increase, as people become more familiar with the horses and the form

 

I don't really see that people will be willing to lose more betting than they are now, especcially with the post-COVID redundancies and insolvencies. I see Hertz has gone belly up globally today.

I'm not sure how RITA expects to even fund July stakes let alone still be solvent by then.

[curious]

15 minutes ago, Freda said:

My reference was to the rationale of chopping small tracks out,  when some of those tracks do actually good turnovers.....not the overall disaster that we have become.

If the piroplasmosis matter isn't sorted,  then our 'elite' horses will be staying here.

Some might think good, more local interest, but I am ever suspicious. 

Watch Pike and co. wail then about  no aspirational stakemoney.  My fear is that, instead of running with a flat stakes structure, NZTR will bend over for them and chop the minimum to hell.

They might have to do both. Even if you cut pattern race stakes by 75%, I think all other races will have to be run for about 2/3 previous levels and I'm not sure that will be sustainable based on current wagering figures.

[curious]

1 hour ago, Freda said:

If the piroplasmosis matter isn't sorted,  then our 'elite' horses will be staying here.

That's a bigger worry than COVID for mine. Retest is positive and the rules are no equine exports for 3 years. That would stop all exports, horses racing in Oz, shuttle stallions etc. Probably put a lot of traders and breeders out of business. But yes, our best horses would be here to race.

Edited May 23, 2020 by curious

[pete]

This was always on the cards:

https://i.stuff.co.nz/sport/racing/300016801/anger-at-winston-peters-make-racing-great-again-leads-to-petition-against-government-funding-for-racing-industry

[mardigras]

1 hour ago, pete said:

This was always on the cards:

https://i.stuff.co.nz/sport/racing/300016801/anger-at-winston-peters-make-racing-great-again-leads-to-petition-against-government-funding-for-racing-industry

And the dismay is unlikely to stop solely at animal welfare activists. The more this comes to the fore of reported news on the racing industry being the recipient of a continual supply of tax payer funds, the more the realisation that those tax payers are actually funding the industry - something that would not be properly understood by the vast majority of tax payers, then the government will come under increased pressure to turn off the tap.

If that gets out by way of things like the article above and people start to realise their funds are continually doing this, there will come a time when the people will hold the government accountable.

The industry is going to need to have their funding issues kept hidden for as long as possible because if the industry thinks things are bad now, if the government changed the rules due to the pressure on them, and all the revenue streams unrelated to racing were to dry up, the industry would be absolutely stuffed - and at that point, I'd say there will definitely be no industry left. They need to use this time to bring about change so that their dependency on tax payer funds is progressively reduced.

[Freda]

11 hours ago, curious said:

 

I'm not sure how RITA expects to even fund July stakes let alone still be solvent by then.

July stakes have been funded by shaving 1 mill from the RIU budget.   Pokie money, of course.  That'll go down well with the general public too,  if they find out.

[mardigras]

I saw this posted elsewhere by the Chief.

Not entirely correct either.  Any overseas operator can take bets from Australia but they have to have a license to do so.  I suppose the NZ TAB could set up a company in Australia but then they would have to pay tax which they don't do in NZ.

I don't believe this is true. NZ TAB could not set up in Australia - well not as they currently are since the operators with a tote license are heavily controlled. Hence only one operator per state. Which doesn't leave room for another operator to be licensed to operate in Australia - as that would reduce the value of TABCORP for example, having an exclusive license, which they pay massively for.

Edited May 24, 2020 by mardigras

[curious]

 

 

3 hours ago, Freda said:

July stakes have been funded by shaving 1 mill from the RIU budget.   Pokie money, of course.  That'll go down well with the general public too,  if they find out.

I thought they were already 6 weeks short on pokie revenue though?

 

Edited May 24, 2020 by curious

[Freda]

59 minutes ago, curious said:

 

 

I thought they were already 6 weeks short on pokie revenue though?

 

Can't answer that definitely. 

Perhaps money already allocated, and not needed as they haven't had anything to do?

Edited May 24, 2020 by Freda

[VC!]

I see Jason Waddell has just tweeted after the travel restrictions are lifted he will be relocating to Australia