Autumn Super Draft Comp Semi-Finals Sat June 20 selection thread

[PWJ]

SEMI-FINALS - Sat June 20

Races are:

Selections Close off at 1.10pm (NZ time)

Races are:

1. Randwick R1 - 1.30pm - Magna Grecia New To Coolmore Hdcp - $100k, 1500m, 2yos hdcp

2. Flemington R1 - 1.45pm - David Bourke Provincial Plate - $100k, 1620m, BM 90 hdcp

3. Flemington R2 - 2.20pm - Rod Johnson Hdcp - $100k, 1420m, 2yos hdcp

4. Flemington R3 - 2.55pm - Bruce Gadsden Hdcp - $100k, 1420m, mares BM 90 Hdcp

5. Flemington R4 - 3.30pm - Sir Henry Bolte Hdcp - $108k, 2000m, qlty hdcp

6. Doomben R5 - 3.57pm - Mitavite The Phoenix (LR) - $125k, 1615m, 2yos SWs

7. Flemington R6 - 4.45pm - George Watson Hdcp - $108k, 2540m, qlty hdcp

8. Flemington R7 - 5.25pm - A.R. Creswick Stks (LR) - $112k, 1200m, 3yos SW+Ps

9. Flemington R8 - 6.00pm - Brian Beattie Hdcp - $100k, 1420m, qlty hdcp

10. Doomben R9 -6.36pm - TAB Long May We Play Open - $65k, 1110m, hdcp

GOOD LUCK to the Semi-Finalists !

 

FIVE-OH (1st) vs THE JAMES GANG (4th)

Moose (7/7-2490.80/2254.80) v Hesi (3/11-3001.60/3573.60)
Virgil (7/7-3161.20/3480.00) v Pete (4/10-3476.80/4284.60)
John (11/3-3727.00/2601.60) v Jack (10/4-3122.60/2636.80)
The Crucible (9/5-2766.40/2247.60) v Blind Squirrel (9/5-3191.40/2727.60)
Punter Pete (10/4-3182.40/2992.80) v Steve P (6/8-3138.00/2675.80)

 

MAXIMILLIONS (2nd) vs MUCH TOO FAST (3rd)
Max (9/5-4040.40/3493.40) v Craig (7/7-2918.00/3069.80)
Georgy Boy (7/7-3698.80/3455.00) v Rex (8/6-2844.60/3634.80)
Rob (9/5-3588.00/2901.20) v Howie (6/8-2700.20/3218.40)
Heather (10/4-3241.40/2050.00) v Zac (6/8-3260.20/3246.40)
Graeme (8/6-2967.60/3007.20) v Ashoka (7/7-3543.20/3347.80)

THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN
4040.40 Max (Maximillions)

3804.40 Porky (Covid-Y)

3707.00 Maurice (Tigers)

3727.60 John (Five-Oh)

3698.80 Georgy Boy (Maximillions)

3658.20 Midnight C (Hall of Fame)

3588.00 Rob (Maximillions)

 

THE SERENDIPITOUS SIX (those with the least $$ scored against them)

The Crucible (9/5-2247.60) (Five-Oh)

Gordy (8/6-2213.00) (Roland's Roughnecks)

Roland (8/6-2191.40) (Roland's Roughnecks)

Gee (6/8-2115.00) (Roland's Roughnecks)

Ray (9/5-2082.00) (Covid-Y)

Heather (10/4-2050.00) (Maximillions)

 

THE UNFORTUNATE FIVE (those with the most $$ scored against them)

Jill (6/8-4077.40) (The Tigers)

Sharne (3/11-4199.60) (The Tigers)

Pete (4/10-4284.60) (James Gang)

Midnight C (7/7-4324.40) (Hall of Fame)

Tom (4/10-4495.80) (The Tigers)

[PWJ]

PREVIOUS ENCOUNTERS THIS COMP:

ROUND 5

1 MUCH TOO FAST (4th)

$891.20

0 points 

4 MAXIMILLIONS (1st)

$1123.40

3 points

Maximillions had it wrapped up before the last and just as well as no one tipped the Boss bolter. Maximillions took a valuable bonus point for the 4-1 margin with Captain Max the Man of the Match while unluckily his opponent Howie was MVP for MTF.

43.00 Zac

170.00 Graeme
 

177.60 Ashoka

266.00 Heather
 

265.00 Howie

309.40 Max
 

163.00 Rex

122.00 Georgy Boy
 

242.60 Craig

256.00 Rob

 

ROUND 11

2 MUCH TOO FAST (3rd)

$1373.60

1 point 

3 MAXIMILLIONS (1st)

$2247.40

3 points
Neither of Much Too Fast's chances materialised in the last so Maximillions took the win and ended the day in style with BBs for Max and Rob while Graeme nearly caught Howie. Ashoka - MTF's MVP was the only one to reply for his side. Georgy Boy was a hugely impressive Man of the Match with Rob also posting a big score. Maximillions took a bonus point for a team profit as did Much Too Fast.

298.80 Howie 

263.40 Graeme
 

597.80 Ashoka

609.00 Rob
 

104.00 Zac 

443.00 Max
 

288.00 Craig

195.00 Heather
 

43.00 Rex

737.00 Georgy Boy

 

 

ROUND 1

2 FIVE-OH

$858.00

1 point

3 JAMES GANG

$612.20

2 points

The big turnaround in the last came here where Steve P bagged a BB to win the tied match over Punter Pete and Jack snagged a quinella to reel in Virgil and capture the win for the James Gang. John (also with a quinella) and TC scored in the last for Five-Oh who took a bonus point for a higher aggregate while all the James Gang landed the final quinella bar Steve P who doubled up with a BB. Five-Oh's Moose was Man of the Match while Blind Squirrel with 5 wins in the last 7 races was MVP for the winners. Given the result of the John vs Hesi match the James Gang were less than $1 away from a 4-1 result and a bonus point !

200.80 The Crucible

233.80 Blind Squirrel

 

88.80 Virgil

102.40 Jack

 

136.80 John

136.40 Hesi

 

379.80 Moose

45.80 Pete

 

51.80 Punter Pete

93.80 Steve P

 

ROUND 10

3 FIVE-OH (2nd)

$1123.60

2 points 

2 THE JAMES GANG (5th)

$1180.80

1 point
Street Icon was never paying enough and Miss Mandito didn't yelp so Five-Oh held on but The James Gang salvaged a point when Hesi and Steve P bagged BBs in the last to take their aggregate to pass that of Five-Oh's for whom only Punter Pete scored. Steve P was an impressive Man of the Match with John MVP for the victors.

250.00 Punter Pete 

45.00 Jack
 

393.40 Moose

273.00 Pete
 

19.00 The Crucible

51.00 Blind Squirrel
 

359.80 John

246.00 Hesi
 

101.40 Virgil

565.80 Steve P

 

[PWJ]

48 minutes ago, Say No More said:

Fair to say some improvement needed here.  Third time's a charm!?

Looks like a grudge match...

[Maximus]

12 hours ago, PWJ said:

Looks like a grudge match...

so does this one ... big improvement made in Rd 10 by the unluckiest Pete of all time...third time lucky?

379.80 Moose

45.80 Pete

 

393.40 Moose

273.00 Pete

Edited June 17, 2020 by Maximus

[Steve Paul]

1 hour ago, Maximus said:

so does this one ... big improvement made in Rd 10 by the unluckiest Pete of all time...third time lucky?

379.80 Moose

45.80 Pete

 

393.40 Moose

273.00 Pete

Probably have to play each other?

[Maximus]

17 minutes ago, Steve Paul said:

Probably have to play each other?

silly Mustelid ...musta stayed up too late last night! Should be a great match Saturday

[PWJ]

1 hour ago, Maximus said:

so does this one ... big improvement made in Rd 10 by the unluckiest Pete of all time...third time lucky?

379.80 Moose

45.80 Pete

 

393.40 Moose

273.00 Pete

I think Moose was just practicing on Pete getting warmed up for Alan !!

[Maximus]

PJ's Super Duper Comp Top 40 Hit Parade of Meaningless Aggregates

Max 4040.40
Porky 3804.40
John 3727.00 
Maurice 3707.00
Georgy Boy 3698.80
............................................Profit Line $3696.00
Midnight C 3658.20
Rob 3588.00
…………………………………...........Mag 7  
Gordy 3562.80
Ashoka 3543.20
Pete 3476.80
…………………………………..........Top 10
Jill 3434.80
Zac 3260.20  
Heather 3241.40
Blind Squirrel 3191.40
Punter Pete 3182.40
Steve P 3138.00
Jack 3122.60
Virgil 3121.60
Rocky 3108.40
Ian 3035.20
………………………………................Top 20  
Hesi 3001.60
Jamison 2969.60
Graeme 2967.60
Craig 2918.00  
Ziggy 2905.80
PJ 2875.40
Rex 2844.60  
Robert 2838.80
The Crucible 2766.40
Gee 2753.00
........................................Top 30
Ray 2738.00
Tom 2736.60 
Howie 2699.60
Stevie N 2647.80
Gary 2641.20
Sharne 2518.40
Moose 2490.80
Pam 2406.80
Roland 2157.00
Jen 1516.80

 

[craigos1]

R1: 3~7

R2: 1~2

R3: 6~14

R4: 3~4

R5: 4~8

R6: 3~8***

R7: 2~3

R8: 2~5

R9: 4~10

R10: 6~16***

Any scratchings I'll adjust Saturday morning.

Good Luck Max & my teammates,

Thanks PJ

[Maximus]

And now, just what all you semi-finalists have all been waiting for ...another stupefying Tiptop Table from Mustelid Research ...ranked top to bottom by Win/Loss record over 14 weeks of  competition. (Hesi, if you want to top the table, turn your laptop upside down or put the losses first.
NOTE: Meaningless Aggregates and Averages have been included purely to brass off any personages who think they're meaningless. Players and teams can look at this Tiptop Table free of charge and see all kinds of interesting things about their semi-final opponent for Saturday!

NAME	AGG	AVGE	W	L
JOHN	$3727	$ 266.20	11	3
HEATHER	3241	$ 231.50	10	4
PUNTER P	3182	$ 227.28	10	4
JACK	3122	$ 223.00	10	4
MAX	4040	$ 288.55	9	5
ROB	3588	$ 256.28	9	5
BLND SQRL	3191	$ 227.92	9	5
T C	2766	$197.57	9	5
ASHOKA	3543	$ 253.07	8	6
REX	2844	$ 203.14	8	6
GEORGY B	3698	$ 264.14	7	7
VIRGIL	3161	$ 225.78	7	7
GRAEME	2967	$ 211.92	7	7
MOOSE	2490	$177.85	7	7
CRAIG	2918	$ 208.42	7	7
ZAC	3260	$ 232.85	6	8
STEVE P	3138	$ 224.14	6	8
HOWIE	2700	$192.85	6	8
PETE	3476	$ 248.28	4	10
HESI	3001	$ 214.35	3	11

Edited June 18, 2020 by Maximus

[Hesi]

The James Gang have 3 of the bottom 4, and are in with a good chance of taking out the final

 

[Maximus]

14 minutes ago, Hesi said:

The James Gang have 3 of the bottom 4, and are in with a good chance of taking out the final

 

based on Mustelid Research's world-leading, chart-topping, mind-boggling and brain-boxing PJ's Super Duper Comp Ranking System (patent pending) ... TJG will defeat Five-Oh 3-2 ..individual H2H predictions are available on request for a modest fee*

MM

*you gotta ask me nicely

 

Edited June 18, 2020 by Maximus

[PWJ]

PJ's Friday Special

Nothing too special today but Fenech looks nailed on in the 3rd at Canberra. Nice run on debut at Wyong and this should be weaker opposition. A little green but would have learned plenty at his debut. Currently $2.35 so no ones getting rich but looks the goods.

Value bet of the day (EW) looks like Casino Time in race 5 at Canberra. Currently $10, was an easy winner here two starts back over 2000m and should drop back in distance no trouble with regular pilot Kyla Nesbit aboard

[PWJ]

12 minutes ago, Say No More said:

I really like Fenech - cheers for the tip Peter.  Wasn't far away at Wyong and the form out of that race stacks up - winner has won again and runner-up placed again at next start.

Yeah we bred him and sold him for $460k to Brad Widdup as a yearling. Two of his brothers are Gr1 winners in South Africa

[Maximus]

Max has taken the potentially marriage-ending step of raiding Mrs W's 'Purse of Many Golden Coins'...and loaded up on Fenech. Confidence is so high - based entirely on a double-dose of the Jenkins Nod And A Wink - that Max expects to have replaced her many coins before she knows the purse is missing. Mum's the word.

MM

[PWJ]

25 minutes ago, Maximus said:

Max has taken the potentially marriage-ending step of raiding Mrs W's 'Purse of Many Golden Coins'...and loaded up on Fenech. Confidence is so high - based entirely on a double-dose of the Jenkins Nod And A Wink - that Max expects to have replaced her many coins before she knows the purse is missing. Mum's the word.

MM

You like to live dangerously young man....

Max locked out for the night on the eve of the Semi-Finals after wasting Mrs W's coins on PJ's bum tip Fenech

[Maximus]

I prefer to take the optimistic view, PJ ...Mrs W's coins being used as a short-term loan to pay for the (on-ice) MOET in the Mustelid's fridge!! 

[Maximus]

Was it your money, PJ/SNM ?? Or the weight of Mrs W's coins that has brought Fenech in to $1.95

Edited June 19, 2020 by Maximus

[PWJ]

36 minutes ago, Maximus said:

Was it your money, PJ/SNM ?? Or the weight of Mrs W's coins that has brought Fenech in to $1.95

Must have been John's big whack. Paid $2.20 here on NSW tote

[Maximus]

thanks PJ ! Bet that horse's stable name is Mario.
 Small fish are sweet...$2.30 fixed here ...Mrs W wont know a thing ...

Edited June 19, 2020 by Maximus

[PWJ]

Weather and track updates for all 3 meetings:

Doomben:

Rail Position: +2.5m Entire Course
Track Condition: Soft 7
Weather: Showers (some showers tonight and partly cloudy tomorrow)
Penetrometer: 6.15

 

Royal Randwick:

Rail Position: True
Track Condition: Heavy 9
Weather: Fine (cloudy overnight but fine tomorrow afternoon)
Penetrometer: 6.15

 

Flemington:

Rail Position: Out 11m Entire Circuit
Track Condition: Soft 5
Weather: Showers (Rain due from 11pm to 6.00am then turning fine by midday.)

[Maximus]

I know I shouldn't, but when yer luck's in, it's in ...so Max has only put back into Mrs W's purse what she knows was in there the last time she looked (last night, knowing her!) Hence, most of the profit from FENECH (call me Jeff or Mario) has been reinvested on Casino Time.

Edited June 19, 2020 by Maximus

[Maximus]

MUSTELID MUSING #202

Max is struggling as usual to feel confident about selections for PJ's Super Duper Comp. Big fields, wet tracks. Which begs a question worth asking re the Big Day Out tomorrow ...

Q: Of the 20 players not in the Semis, who would you want making selections for you?

Max would choose Porky

Edited June 19, 2020 by Maximus

[PWJ]

Comments on the comp races tomorrow:

Comp race 1 (Rand1): The top two are scratched (Paul has taken our boy Outburst to Doomben) so just 6 to run with Godolphin filly Silhouette a crazy $1.85 fave which means some juicy odds for anything else you like. Exhibition at $6.50 could be the big improver after still finishing 5th after an interrupted debut at Newcastle. Snagging the quinella here might give you a small but important edge in your head-to-head.

Comp race 2 (Flem1): A $4 fave in the Jap-bred import Danon Roman but 3 others paying $5 or less. It's these type of races that are difference makers in the comp. Nice $45 or $50 lead if you can pick the right one (or two). Nos 3, 6 & 8 are the others favoured here.

Comp race 3 (Flem2): Cherry Tortoni fave at $3.50 but 4 (1,2,5,12) hovering at $5.50 to $7. Impressive last start winner Super Yulong (#4) currently $31 !!

Comp race 4 (Flem3): Loose $5 favourite here in #2 Great Duchess going for 3 straight looks tempting but maybe more so the ex-Kiwi Polly Grey first up for C Waller at $13.00 !

Comp race 5 (Flem4): Another really open contest with 3 horses - Right You Are, Persan and the Dundeel up and comer Coolth - all sharing favouritism at $5.00. 4 horses also at 100/1 or more !!! Also John "Wheels" Wheeler has the highly rated Grinzinger Allee in this at a juicy $9.50....

Comp race 6 (Doom5): Our own boy Outburst will be trying hard to become his sire's first stakeswinner (Real Impact is of course a son of Deep Impact). No way to line up his form against the others but we will be trying hard. Worked well this week. Plenty of depth here with all but one runner paying a divvy in one of their last two most recent outings. Way Beyond (#1) drops back from Gr1 to Listed company and at set weights looks good value at $7. The gritty Haz De Bee ($51) could be the boilover on a very heavy track with veteran hoop Jim Byrne aboard.

Comp race 7 (Flem6): Nothing under $4.40/win here with Chapada and Arty Lucas likely to dispute favouritism. Sasko has won it's last two including a last start win here and is at an enticing $9.50. Frankel last start winner (at The 'Bool) San Remo a blowout chance at $91 !!!

Comp race 8 (Flem7): Down the Flemington straight 6 often catches out the inexperienced horses. Only the Moroney pair Hawker Hurricane ($14) and Alburq ($17) have run the straight six more than twice and Al Burq has in fact scored his only win at 1200m here so they might represent some good value. King of Hastings is one-for-one down the straight here and a deserving fave.

Comp race 9 (Flem8): Toppy Heptagon is $3.20 fave to make it 3 on end but carries 61.5kg and looks vulnerable. Haunted, Vassilator and Victoria Star (still needs another scr to get a run) are the only others under $10. The race I'm tipping most likely to yield a big upset. Ex-Kiwi Travimyfriend ($26) or Sydney escapee Cadogan - one time when a 2yo was the biggest talking horse in Sydney - at $61, are candidates.

Comp race 10 (Doom9): Scratchings already- 1,9,10,11,14. This race will probably undergo more study than the other 9 put together. NO ONE wants to be downed in the last and cost their team a Grand Final slot and yet all of us love to drive that dagger home at the death to come out victorious. #2 Spurcraft, #6 Pennino and #12 Ozark are disputing favouritism between $5.00 and $5.50 with Mishani Hustler, Sharpe Hussler & Royal Witness all around the $8.00-$8.50 mark. My guess is the track could be an absolute bog by then so let's look at the heavy track form: Sharpe Hussler and Pennino are both 2 wins from 5 on the heavy with both of these chances actually having each won here at Doomben over 1050m on a heavy track previously. The ultimate bolter ??? Probably Tisani Tomso who has paid a divvy every time he's hit the bog but is currently almost friendless at $31. You just need to have the attitude like his sire and get the passage like his dam 😄😁

I'm not sure we will see too many close personal matches tomorrow but probably plenty of lead changes. Sure to be a fascinating day. Good luck everyone

 

[PWJ]

15 minutes ago, Maximus said:

I know I shouldn't, but when yer luck's in, it's in ...so Max has only put back into Mrs W's purse what she knows was in there the last time she looked (last night, knowing her!) Hence, most of the profit from FENECH (call me Jeff or Mario) has been reinvested on Casino Time.

Bad luck max. Bit of a casual ride I thought but came home like a train just too late. Wins at 2000m next time so put it in the black book