Punting a quarter mill at a NZ meeting

[Sandpiper]

Boys Get Paid are aiming to have a $240k punters club going at Karaka millions night. Is it even possible to get set for say 8 bets at $30k without destroying the price? We've all seen bets get referred / reduced for hundreds let alone tens of thousands.

[curious]

18 minutes ago, Sandpiper said:

Boys Get Paid are aiming to have a $240k punters club going at Karaka millions night. Is it even possible to get set for say 8 bets at $30k without destroying the price? We've all seen bets get referred / reduced for hundreds let alone tens of thousands.

Except there's only 6 races.

[mardigras]

They'll be trying to get set on 6 $2 - $2.4 runners from Ted. All at value mind.

[Hesi]

Probabeel @ 1.60

Play That Song @ 2.40

Catalyst @ 1.20

$40K each on those 3, will bring the price in even further

Who knows about the other 3 races

Ted could get bored.

Tedious prick

[Buller Rep]

Yes, between the TAB Bookmakers and BGP there will certainly be a problem that day and in my opinion the TAB have right or mandate to take any extra risk whatsoever. 

[Buller Rep]

The TAB’s obligation to to balance their books and if the BGP back the favourites (along with the general public), the fixed odds will be minuscule or the TAB will be taking reckless risks that the the industry can’t afford under any circumstances whatsoever. 
This of course is assuming that the BGP are betting fixed odds.  

[curious]

2 hours ago, Buller Rep said:

The TAB’s obligation to to balance their books and if the BGP back the favourites (along with the general public), the fixed odds will be minuscule or the TAB will be taking reckless risks that the the industry can’t afford under any circumstances whatsoever. 
This of course is assuming that the BGP are betting fixed odds.  

Have they said they'll be betting with NZTAB? Surely not, if they can get better prices elsewhere?

[Hesi]

But aren't they the new darlings and saviours of NZ racing.  If they don't use the NZ TAB, could be a bit of egg on the face.

Besides which, I doubt Ted knows how to bet with all these other agencies, he is still using touch tone/NZ TAB

[mardigras]

8 minutes ago, curious said:

Have they said they'll be betting with NZTAB? Surely not, if they can get better prices elsewhere?

I think they have done a fair bit of betting with NZ TAB. But I think they also had some deals with off-shore providers. I would expect if betting that much on one meeting, it would be across a number of providers. 

I'm also of the view they don't make money overall - otherwise holding accounts with normal bookies and the TAB would make betting such volume very difficult. Good on them if they do, but it seems inconceivable that the TAB would just let them on 'for the good of racing' if it was costing them a reasonable amount.

[Hesi]

Perhaps someone such as yourself Mardi, could do a quick summary of the benefit to NZ racing for betting with the following options, for people who are not au fait with it all.  I'm sure I could find it all somewhere, but it would take me ages, and you probably have it at your fingertips

1.  Bets placed oncourse at Ellerslie obviously with the NZ TAB, tote and fixed

2.  Bets placed oncourse with the NZ TAB via internet betting tote and fixed

3.  Bets placed oncourse with other agencies via internet betting, probably just fixed

Thanks, no prob if too much hassle

[mardigras]

I don't think the benefits to the industry are affected differently by 1 and 2 so I will group them. There may be some funding supplied to Ellerslie from 1 that otherwise wouldn't happen - but curious would know more about those types of changes. But overall revenue to the industry isn't affected I don't believe, just where some of that money goes potentially. 

Financially

For all 3 options, there is the difficult to quantify benefit of a group providing entertainment (social and financial),  within the industry and what that may lead to as a benefit longer term.

Individually for those points

3.

If the bets are places via an agency that is already paying race field types fees to NZ, then the benefits of that would be the turnover * the fee rate. (Irrespective of whether they win or lose).

If the bets are placed via an agency that isn't paying anything to NZ, then there is no revenue to the industry.

2 & 1.

Bets placed via the tote - difficult to measure the value since depending on the success or otherwise of those bets, may affect other punters churn as dividends could be massively affected. Looking at one day at a time, it is a difficult thing to measure - at face value, the TAB would look at it as the commission taken on those bets.

Bets placed via fixed odds. The revenue will simply be (returns less losses), adjusted for offloaded (returns less losses). If the TAB offloads bets and the offload process actually loses them money, then they could end up losing more than any amount won by BGP. BGP might win $50k for example, and by the TAB trying to manage their losses, may do a poor job and end up losing $50k to another provider. End result is the TAB is down $100k. 

Equally, the opposite of that could happen or any scenario in between. So the revenue will be whatever happens based on how they manage the bets placed by BGP. There is the invisible cost/gain as well.

The bets placed by BGP will affect the offerings to other punters. That could lead to positive or negative outcomes directly as a result of those BGP bets. So there is no simple answer.

At face value, the TAB would look at the net result of the bets BGP place and how the TAB managed risk on those bets. (If BGP win, likely the TAB lost and vice versa).

Betting impacts tend to be collective - since things done by one set of punters can impact the bets and returns on other punters. We are all betting against other punters (even though many fail to understand that). In fixed odds, the operator is tending to act as a broker as best they can by managing the risk as well as they can to reduce their risk of loss (relative to chance etc).

[brown fox]

Interesting article Mardi.As a loyal(mug) punter who has only bet with the TAB I haven't taken too much notice of overseas betting agencies.Could you tell me

which Agencies pay /dont pay fees to NZ Racing.And also do Betfair etc. do exotics like Quaddies/trebles?

[Hesi]

Thanks for that Mardi, heading out to do some work, so will digest tonight

[curious]

38 minutes ago, mardigras said:

I don't think the benefits to the industry are affected differently by 1 and 2 so I will group them. There may be some funding supplied to Ellerslie from 1 that otherwise wouldn't happen - but curious would know more about those types of changes. But overall revenue to the industry isn't affected I don't believe, just where some of that money goes potentially. 

 

Yes, Ellerslie will get 8% of oncourse turnover from 1. However that remains a return to the industry just differently distributed between 1 and 2.

[mardigras]

14 minutes ago, brown fox said:

Interesting article Mardi.As a loyal(mug) punter who has only bet with the TAB I haven't taken too much notice of overseas betting agencies.Could you tell me

which Agencies pay /dont pay fees to NZ Racing.And also do Betfair etc. do exotics like Quaddies/trebles?

The agencies paying fees is possibly expanding all the time. But I believe already includes Betfair (I think), Oz TABs, maybe Beteasy, Sportsbet, Ladbrokes.

Betfair don't do exotics as such. You can get exactas/quinella type bets on some markets (UK). I think they have had some accumulator styled options but I've never tried taking a multi of any sort on betfair.

You can effectively do race by race treble on betfair. Obviously if you believe the odds on something in a later race are going to change downward dramatically, the advantage may be lost in having to wait until your earlier race results. But they are possible on that basis. And the overall takeout although being race by race, is likely to be less than the impact of takeout on the TAB/tote treble - and certainly better than a tote all-up.

.

Edited January 15, 2020 by mardigras

[mardigras]

And whilst some operators may have volunteered to pay charges, I'd be interested to know whether that is race field fee type charges alone or whether they have signed up for a fee based on a PoC as well.

Edited January 15, 2020 by mardigras

[curious]

Yes, they have said they already have 80% of the overseas bookies paying racefields fees by way of voluntary agreements. Sportsbet and Ladbrokes were the lastest I saw reported on board.

Edited January 15, 2020 by curious

[VC!]

I expect all bets to be placed on the NZ Tab, all fixed odds......respect for value thrown right out the window entire focus will be to back the winner.

Expecting 40k to be allocated per race with 1 10k multi

Here is a previous Karaka million

 

[brown fox]

Does anybody remember at what stage they put bets on? If you place a bet 3 minutes before race and 2 minutes later the price drops through the floor there is going to be a lot of

very pissed off punters😂

[Maximus]

16 hours ago, Hesi said:

Probabeel @ 1.60

Play That Song @ 2.40

Catalyst @ 1.20

$40K each on those 3, will bring the price in even further

Who knows about the other 3 races

Ted could get bored.

Tedious prick

Tedious or Ted-ious?

[Hesi]

Prefer the noun Ted-iot

[Tonkatime]

10 hours ago, curious said:

Have they said they'll be betting with NZTAB? Surely not, if they can get better prices elsewhere?

Pretty sure they bet with the TAB for there punters club. I also believe everyone in the club gets a bonus bet in there account once the winnings are paid out. 

[Midnight Caller]

Does anyone know if BGP negotiations of an % cut with any clubs for being on course has come to anything? I vaguely  remember it being branded around last year.Good on them for getting out on course,but I still have this feeling that there is something deeper than a crowd on the punt.

 

Edited January 16, 2020 by Midnight Caller

[Hesi]

11 hours ago, mardigras said:

I don't think the benefits to the industry are affected differently by 1 and 2 so I will group them. There may be some funding supplied to Ellerslie from 1 that otherwise wouldn't happen - but curious would know more about those types of changes. But overall revenue to the industry isn't affected I don't believe, just where some of that money goes potentially. 

Financially

For all 3 options, there is the difficult to quantify benefit of a group providing entertainment (social and financial),  within the industry and what that may lead to as a benefit longer term.

Individually for those points

3.

If the bets are places via an agency that is already paying race field types fees to NZ, then the benefits of that would be the turnover * the fee rate. (Irrespective of whether they win or lose).

If the bets are placed via an agency that isn't paying anything to NZ, then there is no revenue to the industry.

2 & 1.

Bets placed via the tote - difficult to measure the value since depending on the success or otherwise of those bets, may affect other punters churn as dividends could be massively affected. Looking at one day at a time, it is a difficult thing to measure - at face value, the TAB would look at it as the commission taken on those bets.

Bets placed via fixed odds. The revenue will simply be (returns less losses), adjusted for offloaded (returns less losses). If the TAB offloads bets and the offload process actually loses them money, then they could end up losing more than any amount won by BGP. BGP might win $50k for example, and by the TAB trying to manage their losses, may do a poor job and end up losing $50k to another provider. End result is the TAB is down $100k. 

Equally, the opposite of that could happen or any scenario in between. So the revenue will be whatever happens based on how they manage the bets placed by BGP. There is the invisible cost/gain as well.

The bets placed by BGP will affect the offerings to other punters. That could lead to positive or negative outcomes directly as a result of those BGP bets. So there is no simple answer.

At face value, the TAB would look at the net result of the bets BGP place and how the TAB managed risk on those bets. (If BGP win, likely the TAB lost and vice versa).

Betting impacts tend to be collective - since things done by one set of punters can impact the bets and returns on other punters. We are all betting against other punters (even though many fail to understand that). In fixed odds, the operator is tending to act as a broker as best they can by managing the risk as well as they can to reduce their risk of loss (relative to chance etc).

So with so many variables and the absence of information, hard to say which options offer the most return to NZ racing.

Probably have to say oncourse with all the other associated expenditure on food, drink and room charges, and using the tote with average take out of 20% would provide the best overall return??

[mardigras]

10 hours ago, Hesi said:

So with so many variables and the absence of information, hard to say which options offer the most return to NZ racing.

Probably have to say oncourse with all the other associated expenditure on food, drink and room charges, and using the tote with average take out of 20% would provide the best overall return??

Probably would be right.

I have written on the topic of TAB takeout previously. And this is how I see it.

The punter does not contribute the takeout related to their bets. They contribute their losses (some of which may go to the industry, some of which may go to other punters).

So in the event BGP bet say $250k on the tote with average takeout of 20%, the TAB would get $50k of takeout based on the betting volume. If BGP made $1 profit from those bets, the TAB still take their $50k. But the $50k has to come from somewhere else. So in a situation where a new punter enters the market and bets $250k compared to that punter not betting at all, in this example, the other punters are faced with paying the extra $50k - since the actual takeout is going to be coming from the pockets of those other punters - in real terms.

So should that happen, the other punters have forked out $50k more than otherwise. i.e. their rate of loss has been accelerated overall. If they still bet at he level they had planned on the day, the impact on that one day may be limited. But in the scheme of the collection of punters, you've simply reduced the amount of money held by all those other punters by that $50k - since BGP would still have all their money.

And that has the follow on issue of the churn from then on from those other punters being less (as they have less money), and the issue that there isn't an endless supply of funds from those other punters. (Punters won't just keep losing more and more in general). This is the very concept that NZRB and NZTR cannot comprehend. They think, more money from one punter into the tote. More revenue. So attracting big punters to bet on tote pools and give them rebates etc, is a winner. When the whole idea is ill thought out.

Of course the opposite applies to BGP investing $250k and losing the lot. That means the other punters have an extra $200k in their pockets over the course of the day, and $50k to the TAB from the takeout. But the extra $200k the other punters have, has the ability to entice more spend there etc.

So takeout applies to a pool, not an individuals bet. And a punter that bets on the tote and wins, is not contributing to the industry - even though they think they are. (and of course the rules on that are very clear).