What is the Call going to be on Monday

[Hesi]

See poll

[curious]

I think if there are any positives in the asymptomatic Queenstown sample and/or other asymptomatic surveillance they do (which I think is highly likely), we will stay at level 4 for some time or something in between 3 and 4. If not we will go to level 3 as outlined.

Edited April 16, 2020 by curious

[Hesi]

2 minutes ago, curious said:

I think if there are any positives in the asymptomatic Queenstown sample and/or other asymptomatic surveillance they do (which I think is highly likely), we will stay at level 4 for some time or something in between 3 and 4. If not we will go to level 3 as outlined.

Yes agree on that.

Those targeted, but random testing results are crucial, and the concern over the cases they can't trace to somewhere, particularly this, will mean another 2 weeks in lockdown methinks

[ngakonui grass]

We apparently have the capacity to test 5000 people per day,and yet we don't ever appear to be anywhere that number.

 

[Hesi]

36 minutes ago, ngakonui grass said:

We apparently have the capacity to test 5000 people per day,and yet we don't ever appear to be anywhere that number.

 

I think we are doing about 4,000 per day at the moment

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-testing-region

[Hesi]

4241 yesterday NG

[Hesi]

1 hour ago, Hesi said:

Yes agree on that.

Those targeted, but random testing results are crucial, and the concern over the cases they can't trace to somewhere, particularly this, will mean another 2 weeks in lockdown methinks

I see half of the Queenstown sample processed, all negative

[mardigras]

I think they'll go to 3. As I think they have the ability to manage things at 3. But they are a nervy bunch.

[curious]

1 hour ago, ngakonui grass said:

We apparently have the capacity to test 5000 people per day,and yet we don't ever appear to be anywhere that number.

 

6000 at least.

[Hesi]

12 minutes ago, mardigras said:

I think they'll go to 3. As I think they have the ability to manage things at 3. But they are a nervy bunch.

I've found Ardern, Robertson and Bloomfield to be direct, fluent and articulate in the way they communicate.  I don't know where this, out of their depth thing came from

[mardigras]

19 minutes ago, Hesi said:

I've found Ardern, Robertson and Bloomfield to be direct, fluent and articulate in the way they communicate.  I don't know where this, out of their depth thing came from

I don't think they are out of their depth - but they are nervous of getting it a little wrong. So when I said nervy,  I didn't mean it in a negative way. May be appropriate and was in regards my view as to whether they would shift to a 3. They may want to shift when they perceive the risk is miniscule (and near non-existent), whereas I would shift when I perceived the risk was small but manageable. 

[curious]

I'd say at the moment they are giving an international clinic along with their teams and advisors on how to manage this thing. The results to date certainly are anything but representative of any one being out of their depth.

[mardigras]

12 minutes ago, curious said:

I'd say at the moment they are giving an international clinic along with their teams and advisors on how to manage this thing. The results to date certainly are anything but representative of any one being out of their depth.

Yep - they seem to be getting good and consistent advice.

[Globederby19]

On another note, for once i agree with Trump on his decision to stop funding in the billions to the WHO.

I  have come across some interesting facts about them and China.

1    The leader of WHO , is not a Doctor and by all accounts , he was an Ethiopian govt minister bulldozed into his position by Chinese pressure.

2   As an Ethiopian minister he blatantly covered up Cholera outbreaks in his own country.

3   He tried to get  Robert Mugabe appointed to the WHO. !!!!

4   As leader of a "communist " leaning ideological party in Ethiopia( hence his fawning to the Chinese.) known for terrorist activity's..

5  He has blatantly misled the rest of the world by downplaying reports from China as far back as Nov 2019, and halted nations from stopping international travel and trade under the guise of "stigma". and personal politics all the while downplaying  the spread of Covid19 until it was to late.   Obviously Trump has found this all out, and thrown the toys out the cot.

6   Basically a Chinese puppet  

On top of this is the report of a Chinese female doctor who finally blew the whistle on what was happening, after many others were muzzled much earlier on.

Guess what?. Yep,she has disappeared, hasn't been seen since.

 

 

 

[mardigras]

I wouldn't trust WHO myself.

[Hesi]

37 minutes ago, barryb said:

You would think that though Hesi, I think in all honesty this shit is terribly over blown now and the deaths that result from suicide, the mental depression, financial ruin will eclipse any deaths from the infection by hundreds to one.

Get us farking back to level 2 in 2 weeks Jacinda or face an annihilation come election day.

She knows that, even though it is probably far removed from her mind.  As someone else said, she will rest very heavily on the advice of her Public Health No1 Dr Ashley Bloomfield  He probably hold more power than anyone in NZ at the moment

.That is possibly quite accurate, if maybe a little overblown.  But you cannot escape the dark sceptre of what could have happened and still might.  USA, a Pearl Harbour or Twin Towers every day

 

[Hesi]

Also, if the much lauded Aus approach, is achieving the same health results(?), but is a lot less damaging to the economy, then why has the Aus stock market taken a 24% hit and NZ only 12%

[ngakonui grass]

IMO Aussie mining companies are more exposed to China than NZ companies,but still plenty to be made on the ASX and NZX.Just make sure you take the profits and get out before both collapse.

[craigos1]

Many years ago I was a member of The Young Labour Party....................I enjoyed my time then and to this day am still a Labour Party supporter.

So it will come as no surprise that I think the Government are doing well under COVID 19 conditions.

I am hoping that more people can go back to work come 23rd.

However I don't think that is possible re the Singaporean 2nd Wave.

Whilst we are following no other countries model we have certainly been in contact with Singapore quite a bit.

With overseas models to study I believe it foolish to change levels pretty much until levels are even lower than they are today.

I like anyone on this website want NZ Racing to startup again...........but seriously there are more important decisions to come before that.

Cheers,

Craig.

[mardigras]

2 minutes ago, craigos1 said:

Many years ago I was a member of The Young Labour Party....................I enjoyed my time then and to this day am still a Labour Party supporter.

So it will come as no surprise that I think the Government are doing well under COVID 19 conditions.

I am hoping that more people can go back to work come 23rd.

However I don't think that is possible re the Singaporean 2nd Wave.

Whilst we are following no other countries model we have certainly been in contact with Singapore quite a bit.

With overseas models to study I believe it foolish to change levels pretty much until levels are even lower than they are today.

I like anyone on this website want NZ Racing to startup again...........but seriously there are more important decisions to come before that.

Cheers,

Craig.

The whole thing whilst obviously debilitating to many, it is also going to make an extremely interesting future case study. I've been threatening my wife that I am about to embark on a new book 'Covid-19 - secrets revealed'.

Now my new book might sound a little morbid, but I can guarantee there will be numerous books released about this - a film or two. It's inevitable. 

I just have to get my book out first 😉 

I'm only joking about that last sentence. It is not a situation to be making fun of. That's because I think it is a serious situation. And a balancing act. Lives versus economy (even though it isn't really like that since the economy is massively going to be impacted whether we're at level 0 or level 4). Like barry says, the economy needs to get the chance to get back on its feet. Contrary to that is, it won't get back on its feet for a very long time if this current plan doesn't work, lock down or not.

[Hesi]

4 minutes ago, barryb said:

As another bloody side note, I have had a gutsfull of teachers wanking on about how its not going to work and how they are not glorified day carers etc, honestly shut the fuck up and knuckle down and help the populace whom your bloody survival depends on.

Yes, totally agree with you on that one.

The loony left, really seem to dominate the education system

Then again, if this is anything to go by there are more than a few loonies in this country

The Prime Minister is being sued over the lockdown, with two applicants making multiple claims at the High Court in Auckland today – including it being "all for her political gain".

They also asked for a writ of habeas corpus, which seeks to rule an imprisonment unlawful and release the applicants.

The two men, who are known to each other, argued the alert level 4 lockdown has left them unlawfully detained and is not worth the economic cost compared with the low number of Covid-19 related deaths.

The pair have interim name suppression after citing death threats and safety risks.

The first applicant, who is currently serving a home detention sentence, told Justice Mary Peters "the whole thing's a joke" and it has become a "panic-demic, not a pandemic" – noting his sentence allows him to leave the house between 8am and 5pm each day.

He said Ardern had no grounds to enact the lockdown.

He also alleged she had conspired with Sir Stephen Tindall to ruin the economy and the United Nations Secretary-General should have been consulted instead.

The man ultimately compared Ardern to Hitler and the lockdown to the holocaust.

"I don't want my democratic rights to live in a society taken away on a whim."

The man said the nine Covid-19 related deaths that had been confirmed at the time showed the lockdown was not in line with one modelling scenario that predicted up to 80,000 deaths in New Zealand.

[Hesi]

If you apply the UK and US rates(per mil of pop), you get for NZ

US 10,000 cases/500 deaths

UK 7,500 cases/1000 deaths

[mardigras]

It's a pretty emotive topic. We will never know what the difference is between A and B or C (whatever that may be). And worldwide deaths from flu,  pneumonia, malnutrition, tb etc etc are going to be referenced.

For me, I'm not fussed on deaths - and given the impacts on many things to what they call '3rd world' countries, what's one to do?  I tend to be more focussed on what the difference is between A and B, as best one can tell.

For me, the economy was always going to be massively impacted irrespective of lockdown. Indicators and other factors such as the share market already support that notion. Those indicators were present without lock down. So it came down to - what's the economic and health outcomes of A versus B versus C etc.

If A is lockdown, A has little to no impact on the economy (compared to B or C) - to a point. So 4 - 6 weeks of A, economy likely no different to not doing A at the same point. Eventually, the long term benefit of A reduces as A lengthens. So as A gets too long, if A hasn't achieved the goals set out within A, you are no better off than you would be without A. Like I said before, there isn't really a plan B.

In saying that, I think plan A was the right plan for NZ. And I believe the plan has been pretty well successful as I believe with the border situation, the issue can be managed (even if random testing highlights more cases).

I think the short term unemployment rate in NZ will be no greater than many countries - and less than many that have taken a softer stance. I've mentioned Sweden previously, they did a bit of self rule control. Their economy is going down the tubes as I write this, their unemployment rate is escalating rapidly - yet they don't have the lockdown rules we have. And on top of that, in the space of 3 weeks, they have had triple the normal annual death rate of the flu. In another week, it will be 5 times that level. So lockdown versus no lockdown, the examples are many. You were going to be in the shit no matter what economically. Now, it's about, how long are you going to be in the shit for. My guess is that NZ is ahead of the curve.

[Hesi]

9 minutes ago, Maximus said:

if I am getting Hesi right here, that means if we'd followed the UK route we'd have lost 1000 people by now; 500 if we'd done a Trump.

Pretty much it, based purely on the rates applied to NZ

Not sure why the mortality rate is so high in the UK

 

[Hesi]

No one responded to my post, about if the Aus approach is economically less damaging yet achieving the same health results, why has their stock market taken a 24 % hit vs NZ at 12%.

The stock market is usually the best indicator of economic confidence in each country, isn't it?