What is the Call going to be on Monday

[Hesi]

9 minutes ago, Maximus said:

if I am getting Hesi right here, that means if we'd followed the UK route we'd have lost 1000 people by now; 500 if we'd done a Trump.

Pretty much it, based purely on the rates applied to NZ

Not sure why the mortality rate is so high in the UK

 

[Hesi]

No one responded to my post, about if the Aus approach is economically less damaging yet achieving the same health results, why has their stock market taken a 24 % hit vs NZ at 12%.

The stock market is usually the best indicator of economic confidence in each country, isn't it?

[mardigras]

9 minutes ago, Hesi said:

Pretty much it, based purely on the rates applied to NZ

Not sure why the mortality rate is so high in the UK

 

Density, age profile. Maybe some relationship with vaccination history. Those numbers don't count non-hospital deaths.

[mardigras]

Just now, barryb said:

Don't disagree Mardi & as usual you have a very logical way of putting things, the problem is the path out of this is overkill & will result in a heck of a lot more pain this is needed. Regardless you are right, pain is there whatever path, but people do there best work when there is hope & they are informed of what the next steps are, leaving things to conjecture and worry is not good in these situations.

I hope the path is to go level 3 next week, and level 2 two weeks after that. Because I see that as the balance. Of course, jmo. 

[mardigras]

2 minutes ago, Hesi said:

No one responded to my post, about if the Aus approach is economically less damaging yet achieving the same health results, why has their stock market taken a 24 % hit vs NZ at 12%.

The stock market is usually the best indicator of economic confidence in each country, isn't it?

I wouldn't read too much into that. Many factors at play in stock markets. I'd look at business confidence indicators and willingness to spend/invest indicators. They were already down before lockdown.

[craigos1]

Barry....I understand  your point of view...............however you and I are quite frankly miles apart.

I hope that there maybe some middle ground that we agree on.

NB: Middle ground maybe where we have to compromise.

[Globederby19]

24 minutes ago, barryb said:

No, it reflects speculative opportunity.

Funny you should say that because a Wealth Investment organisation that sends me daily updates has sent out a prospectus on various investment opportunity's now the stocks have plummeted. Making money from other peoples pain. Oh for a spare 100 grand and another 30 yrs.

[Hesi]

3 minutes ago, Globederby19 said:

Funny you should say that because a Wealth Investment organisation that sends me daily updates has sent out a prospectus on various investment opportunity's now the stocks have plummeted. Making money from other peoples pain. Oh for a spare 100 grand and another 30 yrs.

Stop complaining Rees, you've got a new shoulder

[Globederby19]

1 minute ago, Hesi said:

Stop complaining Rees, you've got a new shoulder

Only because Im short of a spare 100 grand, in real terms that is. Any way one is a long time looking at the lid, so bitch away now.

[craigos1]

1 hour ago, Hesi said:

If you apply the UK and US rates(per mil of pop), you get for NZ

US 10,000 cases/500 deaths

UK 7,500 cases/1000 deaths

1 hour ago, Hesi said:

If you apply the UK and US rates(per mil of pop), you get for NZ

US 10,000 cases/500 deaths

UK 7,500 cases/1000 deaths

I most probably watch CNN more than any other person in NZ mainly for my complete dislike of President T

I'm struggling Alan to where you found those statistics.

One must remember when you dilly dally with Stats you'll always get results to serve a purpose.

The facts are New York is in dire trouble and will be for sometime....................however I'll put my money on Governor Cuomo for President 2024.

[Maximus]

1 hour ago, Hesi said:

Pretty much it, based purely on the rates applied to NZ

Not sure why the mortality rate is so high in the UK

 

possibly density of population/urbanisation and sheer number of elderly with underlying conditions

[craigos1]

9 minutes ago, barryb said:

It’s incredibly unlikely Craig.

I support level 3 Wed at 11:59pm and then in 14 days Level 2 & then in 14 days Level 1. If all the community asymptomatic testing done in the last few days shows results below 2%  then I support Level 2 immediately. Community transmission is not apparent in NZ. 

Yes Barry we're not close

I believe Level 4 will be extended till May 1~4

Level 3 will be at least another 3 Weeks most probably longer.

[mardigras]

6 minutes ago, craigos1 said:

Yes Barry we're not close

I believe Level 4 will be extended till May 1~4

Level 3 will be at least another 3 Weeks most probably longer.

Without serious justification, that would be simply ludicrous.

[Maximus]

1 hour ago, barryb said:

Don't disagree Mardi & as usual you have a very logical way of putting things, the problem is the path out of this is overkill & will result in a heck of a lot more pain this is needed. Regardless you are right, pain is there whatever path, but people do there best work when there is hope & they are informed of what the next steps are, leaving things to conjecture and worry is not good in these situations.

I disagree that the path out of this is overkill. We simply have to do it once, do it well - to minimise the damage in every respect - lives lost, admissions to hospitals, economic and social pain. Compared to all other Western nations (with possible exception of Australia) NZ is going exceptionally well. Better to take two weeks more pain at Level 4 now than risk going to Level 4 again in a few months time.

[craigos1]

This is my view and no one else's

NZ as a singular Identity is ridding COVID 19 (IMO) better than any other country at this stage.

However on the Singaporean model that we have had some similarity with they are going through a negative 2nd wave.

Only today I got sent information on 114 South Korean persons who had Coronavirus...................cleared.........................and now tested positive again.

We (NZ) will not risk any possible re-entry to Level 4.

Cheers.

[craigos1]

 turned away many people with symptoms to figure it out for themselves, 

 

Barry show me the info ....................I've had 3 mates say the same thing.

I think you all listen to that twat on morning ZB too much.

Once they had the appropriate information they acted as they did which I think was correct.

[Maximus]

42 minutes ago, barryb said:

Give us a good reason why Craig?.

another 2 weeks to make sure community transmission is not going to allow the virus to get out of control here in the next 6-12 months.
We must remember that the actual number of infections is probably x5-x8 higher than reported because we have had a modest testing regime, until recently, when we got the supplies in from overseas that allowed us to ramp up ('test,test,test'). We allowed thousands of Kiwis to return home without mandatory quarantine even after borders were closed to foreign nationals (most of March, not so long ago).
We don't have the resources in our primary healthcare system to deal with hundreds of serious cases all at once - and we're going into the colder months when respiratory illnesses (requiring ventilators) like asthma and pneumonia increase in frequency and severity. Remember that 7 out of 20 people from just 1 rest home facility in Christchurch died within one week of hospitalisation ...imagine that scenario unfolding in, say, Auckland from community transmission in midwinter. 

I think a lot depends on whether the Govt has a reliable system sorted by Monday for ongoing contact tracing and can roll it out quickly enough. If they don't they'' probably want to 'buy' another couple of weeks by keeping us at Level 4 to 'save lives'

Edited April 17, 2020 by Maximus

[Maximus]

29 minutes ago, barryb said:

It’s done well Maxi, there are 12 people in Hospital right now, Hospitals are empty because all non urgent stuff is off, they are so bored with nothing to do.

We don’t need 2 more weeks at Level 4, no one believes we do other than those whom are marginally impacted whatever happens.  

yes our hospitalisation rate has been low, it needed to be (because we moved quickly to close borders and being physical distancing). but the non-urgent stuff can resume when community transmission of Covid is contained to manageable levels.

[craigos1]

And thankfully to this stage all tests so far have been negative.

That is a good thing............but until they are confident to move to the next level lets just relax and stay safe.

Draconian...........very harsh Barry.

[Hesi]

2 hours ago, craigos1 said:

4 hours ago, Hesi said:

If you apply the UK and US rates(per mil of pop), you get for NZ

US 10,000 cases/500 deaths

UK 7,500 cases/1000 deaths

I most probably watch CNN more than any other person in NZ mainly for my complete dislike of President T

I'm struggling Alan to where you found those statistics.

One must remember when you dilly dally with Stats you'll always get results to serve a purpose.

The facts are New York is in dire trouble and will be for sometime....................however I'll put my money on Governor Cuomo for President 2024.

If you go to this site Craig

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

You will see the US Tot cases/1mil pop is 2049, Tot deaths/1 mil pop is 105

If you apply those rates to NZ, ie multiply up the counts by 5, then you get around 10,000 and 500

You can look at the stats for all the other countries also on that site.

You can see the stats on there for New York, which as you say, are dire, 6 times the US mean for cases and 8 times for deaths

[Maximus]

3 hours ago, barryb said:

Are you another Leftie Maxi?

They didn’t move quickly to shut the border, that’s why we had the problem in the first place, people weren’t self isolating, they were wandering around in the community creating clusters. Had there been stringent checks on those self isolating or them even being told to do so then I would agree with you  but there wasn’t.

I agree that the 'please self-isolate' mantra was silly early on; there should have been stricter rules and penalties. I am not sure why you'd ask if I'm a Leftie, but yes, it's true, I've been left-handed all my life. And I've never voted Labour / Greens in my life.

What I will say is that the communication from the Govt to its citizens through this unprecedented crisis so far has been first-class, the envy of other so-called world-leading democracies, and for good reason. Credit where it's due, mate. The Jacinda and Ashley Show has been consistently confident, clear and informative. Day after day - for weeks! They now have to make the best call they can for a move to Level 3. Let's all hope they get it right. (There seems to be serious concern, for example, in the education community about sending young kids back to school.)

[Hesi]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12325778

No doubt now that we will stay at Level 4 for another 2 weeks, then review again

[curious]

I think with the asymptomatic test results in today they could still go to level 3 with level 2 as soon as they have the contact tracing sorted. Though you may be right and they take a more cautious route.

[craigos1]

Calm down Barry your starting to sound rather Right Wing!

Decimated........................I just saw some statistics on what 18-35 year old's think of how the Prime Minister is performing.

I know that unless they vote it means jack but still better than nothing.

[Hesi]

51 minutes ago, barryb said:

If the silly bitch does Hesi, its a good thing as she will be decimated at the next election.

Its time to stop fucking around on this shit, if I had said to you that an illness with less than 0.03 infections in NZ would cause 25% of people to lose jobs and there businesses 3 months ago you would have said I was nuts. That's exactly what the hell is going on here.

She's obliged to go with the advice of her health professionals, and they appear to have significant concerns, so maybe a delayed decision, until they can provide assurances