Weigh In 25 Oct 2021

[Hesi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7SXkOPsPzI

[Hesi]

Not sure why people don't like Michael Guerin.  Presents well, knowledgeable and likeable.

Emily Bosson, easy to watch, perfect delivery, young, modern, knowledgeable enough.  As good as any female presenter in Aus

I note the comment towards the end from Guerin, set in stone, if you are not double jabbed you wont be going to a racecourse

[curious]

6 hours ago, Hesi said:

I note the comment towards the end from Guerin, set in stone, if you are not double jabbed you wont be going to a racecourse

That's typical ill-informed, unbalanced NZ racing (non-)journalism misinformation. ie., political bs. I'd be waiting to see what Justice Cooke has to say about that shortly in the Wellington High Court and if he were any use as a journalist he would say that is dependent on the current High Court decidion re whether it would be an infringement of the NZBoR which I suspect it would be. He should not say that it is set in stone. It is not.

Edited October 25, 2021 by curious

[Hesi]

Maybe a small amount Barry, from some of the more nasty ones, but I think most NZ'ers are reasonable people and will accept the situation and get on with it.  Ardern has already stated the 90% is not set in stone.  If a DHB is stalling on say 88.5%, I doubt they will hold things back for the sake of 1.5%

People like Liz Gunn don't help with her video, that alienates most of those reasonable NZ'ers

[Hesi]

Yeah but that is the usual trash that you get on social media.  You should know how brave people are behind a keyboard, face to face is a different ball game.

Simple solution, don't read social media, it's full of loons like Liz Gunn.

In terms of businesses doing it hard, they have doubled the Resurgence Support Payment and will pay it every 2 weeks, in addition to continuing with the Wage Subsidy

For a 1 person small business, that is $10,000/month, in addition to any revenue, as the qualifying parameters are 30% reduction for the RSP and 40% for the Subsidy.

The flu is well known, and it's impact on a population is well known.  Not so with Covid, they are still learning about it, the impact the vaccines will have, the impact of the different measures.  We have seen overseas the impact it can have if it gets away in a population, something it has not been allowed to do in NZ

[Hesi]

I think that statement applies to almost everyone

[Freda]

1 hour ago, barryb said:

no longer matters, vaccines pretty much now compulsory for almost all businesses, incl race courses

 

So I see.

Wonder what the ramifications will be , going forward?

[Hesi]

Probably best to wait see, I presume Saundry will clarify soon on NZTR website

[Globederby19]

7 hours ago, Hesi said:

but I think most NZ'ers are reasonable people and will accept the situation and get on

Allan, it is more divisive than you think. It is turning reasonable people into unreasonable people.And it pervades all walks of life ,it divides family's, business colleagues, etc. As I have stated my Granddaughter at Vic Uni doing a double Masters in Bio/Chemistry has now had her flatmates turn against her, because of her stance on not wanting the vaccine, including a longtime friend. On top of that the Uni is thinking about mandating vaccinated staff and pupils nxt year.   

This girl came to live with us, from Australia, through no fault of her parents under trying circumstances when she was 13. She is in the top 2 to3 % marks wise in her subject, a very bright girl. Now they can destroy her life, future, education and whatever else because of this fucking nonsense.

To say I was upset and sad for my granddaughter would be an understatement. The same has happened in Aussie with her parents, hanging on for grim death in the wake of Daniel andrews crusade. 

Nz,ers arent reasonable they are basically STUPID., and have bent over backwards to take it up the arse without flinching.

[pete]

24 minutes ago, Maximus said:

forgot to add that on the subject of Trackside presenters, NONE of them are much chop in this fair land. Including Emily (irritating accent). IMO the best by far in recent times was Jayne Ivil who has all the skills and none of the faults of the wallies we have to put up with today. As Max has said many times, Thank God for the mute button and whoever invented it!

MM

I think Matt Cross is OK. That could be coloured by the fact that I backed Collosal at $34 in the last at Riccarton on Saturday after he tipped it.

I don't usually listen to commentator's tips but looked at that one and thought yeah why not 

[karrotsishere]

20 hours ago, Hesi said:

Not sure why people don't like Michael Guerin.  Presents well, knowledgeable and likeable.

I don't get it either. He takes a pounding on the Harness side. Me and Honest J had a fun disagreement about our thoughts on him on another site prior us joining here. He thought he was an xyz, I thought he was fine and takes pride in his appearance. Haven't said anything on this sites Harness thread about him. 

Because its each to their own. 

I do get an impression tho that some may feel he is a bit shallow or something. And focuses too much on JUST the top dogs oppose speaking more about others and smaller or hobby trainers. Maybe they have a point. But have noticed and did mention this on the other site that he is starting to speak out more and give his opinions. As this was also critiqued that he never gave his real opinion.

I at this stage don't have a problem with him.

Edited October 26, 2021 by karrotsishere

[Hesi]

If I could just add, this is all just a public health issue, nothing more, nothing less.  Sometimes in life you have to pick your battles.

Social media and the internet have made things 'interesting'

I would hate to think how we would have got on eradicating polio in today's world

[Hesi]

1 hour ago, karrotsishere said:

I don't get it either. He takes a pounding on the Harness side. Me and Honest J had a fun disagreement about our thoughts on him on another site prior us joining here. He thought he was an xyz, I thought he was fine and takes pride in his appearance. Haven't said anything on this sites Harness thread about him. 

Because its each to their own. 

I do get an impression tho that some may feel he is a bit shallow or something. And focuses too much on JUST the top dogs oppose speaking more about others and smaller or hobby trainers. Maybe they have a point. But have noticed and did mention this on the other site that he is starting to speak out more and give his opinions. As this was also critiqued that he never gave his real opinion.

I at this stage don't have a problem with him.

He was almost going to join here a while back, but I guess got scared off by the bad stigma that racing chat forums have

[Porky]

21 hours ago, Hesi said:

15 hours ago, curious said:

That's typical ill-informed, unbalanced NZ racing (non-)journalism misinformation. ie., political bs. I'd be waiting to see what Justice Cooke has to say about that shortly in the Wellington High Court and if he were any use as a journalist he would say that is dependent on the current High Court decidion re whether it would be an infringement of the NZBoR which I suspect it would be. He should not say that it is set in stone. It is not.

 

9 hours ago, barryb said:

I honestly don't think the vast majority care Curious right now about the BOR, they just want there f--king lives back & are utterly sick of being dictated too. This annoyance is going to serverly turn onto the unvaccinated & we are going to see violence directed toward those who haven't had a jab.

Give it a week & we will start to see this happening when the target starts to become impossible.

Not sure why people don't like Michael Guerin.  Presents well, knowledgeable and likeable.

Emily Bosson, easy to watch, perfect delivery, young, modern, knowledgeable enough.  As good as any female presenter in Aus

I note the comment towards the end from Guerin, set in stone, if you are not double jabbed you wont be going to a racecourse

 

The Hawkes Bay Spring Carnival was spoilt , now Ch/Ch cup week... with a roll of ribbon and a few fence posts sectioning off crowds into managable numbers with access to T.A.B caravans alongside bar facitilies supplying ...RTDS , Vodka Ready to Drink. Bourbon Ready to Drink. Rum Ready to Drink. Gin Ready to Drink. Beers Ready to Drink. Whisky Ready to Drink. and a few portaloosCrowd numbers could be retained, irrespective of Covid !...Similar to Rugby matches

... JUST A THOUGHT Curious.

I Dont think Jacinda wins the next election...she,s ruffled a few to many kiwi,s feathers .  

[Hesi]

I've found out my son is anti vaxx from garbage he read on the internet.  We are working on him and he will change his mind soon as he wants to go on a red deer hunting trip to the South Island in March, and has zero chance unless he is double jabbed.

It will not affect my relationship with him, but I am not happy, at the amount of misinformation being spread around on social media.

The best advice I could give to anyone who is hesitant about getting vaccinated............................talk to your family doctor, don't research it out yourself on social media

[Globederby19]

11 hours ago, barryb said:

in NZ 85%  of us are doing the opposite to you & you are labelling us Stupid.

That's fine Barry. Just because (so called) figures show that the majority thinks its right doesn't necessarily mean it is. 

 

[mardigras]

1 minute ago, Globederby19 said:

That's fine Barry. Just because (so called) figures show that the majority thinks its right doesn't necessarily mean it is. 

 

Doesn't mean it isn't either. Yet you've claimed it isn't right.

[Hesi]

10 hours ago, Hesi said:

He was almost going to join here a while back, but I guess got scared off by the bad stigma that racing chat forums have

Actually, if anyone does know Michael Guerin, drop him a line about coming on the site, particularly now that harness is a lot more active

[karrotsishere]

40 minutes ago, Hesi said:

Actually, if anyone does know Michael Guerin, drop him a line about coming on the site, particularly now that harness is a lot more active

That is interesting that Guerin was almost going to join this site. Yes he should. BUT if I was him I would join anonymously with an anonymous poster name. 

[curious]

1 hour ago, Hesi said:

I've found out my son is anti vaxx from garbage he read on the internet.  We are working on him and he will change his mind soon as he wants to go on a red deer hunting trip to the South Island in March, and has zero chance unless he is double jabbed.

It will not affect my relationship with him, but I am not happy, at the amount of misinformation being spread around on social media.

The best advice I could give to anyone who is hesitant about getting vaccinated............................talk to your family doctor, don't research it out yourself on social media

The misinformation is coming from both directions. That includes GPs, family doctors, politicians etc. Independent research is the best imo and unfortunately there are no clear answers. I agree with barryb ... I think vaccination should be entirely voluntary with informed consent of the risks and benefits as more information about their efficacy and side effects come to hand. The polarised positions have no grounds either way and are damaging families, workplaces, communities etc.

The subtle agenda suggesting that the vaccinated are at more risk from the unvaccinated than from the vaccinated is bereft of evidence. Both the MoH and Medsafe are clear that they have no evidence (yet) that vaccination reduces transmissability of Delta let alone any future variants. Final comments from Justice  Cooke when the High Court case wound up on Friday suggest that a decision against the "no jab, no job" position is likely. "The judge said the key question might be whether the vaccination order for people in certain positions reduced the risk of the virus spreading, which could justify the limit on personal freedom."

Edited October 26, 2021 by curious

[curious]

One of the insane things in the latest NZTR covid protocols is that where I am able to attend a meeting as an owner, I have to choose between confining myself to the stable area (where I can see my horse, talk to the trainer etc.) or the owner bubble in the public viewing area. I can't move between the two. Why would I bother going? And next question, why would I bother racing a horse if I can't do both those things. That's aside from the fact that whether vaxed or not, I won't be revealing that private health information to any strangers. It's confidential to me and my health providers. So, I won't be on a racecourse anyway and they lose anotrher small owner and licenceholder probably forever, for no good reason that I can see.

[Double R]

10 minutes ago, curious said:

One of the insane things in the latest NZTR covid protocols is that where I am able to attend a meeting as an owner, I have to choose between confining myself to the stable area (where I can see my horse, talk to the trainer etc.) or the owner bubble in the public viewing area. I can't move between the two. Why would I bother going? And next question, why would I bother racing a horse if I can't do both those things. That's aside from the fact that whether vaxed or not, I won't be revealing that private health information to any strangers. It's confidential to me and my health providers. So, I won't be on a racecourse anyway and they lose anotrher small owner and licenceholder probably forever, for no good reason that I can see.

Very interestingly Curious, prior to Covid 19, owners were never allowed down in the stabling area. Apparently, due to health and safety concerns. It looks like things have changed now.

[Hesi]

5 hours ago, curious said:

The misinformation is coming from both directions. That includes GPs, family doctors, politicians etc. Independent research is the best imo and unfortunately there are no clear answers. I agree with barryb ... I think vaccination should be entirely voluntary with informed consent of the risks and benefits as more information about their efficacy and side effects come to hand. The polarised positions have no grounds either way and are damaging families, workplaces, communities etc.

The subtle agenda suggesting that the vaccinated are at more risk from the unvaccinated than from the vaccinated is bereft of evidence. Both the MoH and Medsafe are clear that they have no evidence (yet) that vaccination reduces transmissability of Delta let alone any future variants. Final comments from Justice  Cooke when the High Court case wound up on Friday suggest that a decision against the "no jab, no job" position is likely. "The judge said the key question might be whether the vaccination order for people in certain positions reduced the risk of the virus spreading, which could justify the limit on personal freedom."

The data in NZ shows that infections are heavily weighted towards unvaccinated/single jabbed people.

See also US data below

Therefore it is a numbers game, the vaccinated are more at risk from the unvaccinated, because, in a population, they are many more times likely to be carrying the virus than the vaccinated

So the 10% or so in NZ that will not get vaccinated are more likely to become as a group, people who cause breakthrough cases in the vaccinated, because they are more likely to be infected, the data shows that

The only things that are unknown are

1.  The efficacy of the vaccine in populations, therefore the % of breakthrough infections

2.  The vaccine's effect on transmissibility 

 

 

How Rates of New Covid-19 Hospital Admissions and Deaths Compare

Among fully vaccinated people and among people who were not fully vaccinated in each state since vaccination began.

	HOSPITALIZATION RATE PER 100,000			DEATH RATE PER 100,000
STATE	FOR VACCINATED PEOPLE	FOR UNVACCINATED PEOPLE		FOR VACCINATED PEOPLE	FOR UNVACCINATED PEOPLE
Alabama	9	696	75x higher for unvaccinated people	3	124	48x higher for unvaccinated people
Alaska	9	154	17x	1	11	10x
Arizona	27	1,306	47x	2	182	73x
California	9	647	68x	1	58	58x
Colorado	24	567	22x	4	37	8x
Delaware	7	978	148x	2	26	14x
Georgia	5	735	161x	1	99	87x
Idaho	11	288	25x	2	30	16x
Illinois	20	1,001	48x	5	68	11x
Indiana	9	547	57x	4	29	7x
Kentucky	21	893	41x	4	85	23x
Louisiana	12	347	28x	3	54	19x
Maine	6	571	91x	3	24	7x
Massachusetts	15	615	39x	4	87	22x
Michigan	24	693	28x	9	87	8x
Minnesota	40	465	11x	6	71	11x
Mississippi	17	702	40x	4	127	28x
Montana	11	472	43x	2	42	16x
Nebraska	13	458	35x	3	48	16x
Nevada	35	1,182	33x	6	98	15x
New Hampshire	5	454	88x	2	37	15x
New Jersey	7	948	126x	2	96	50x
New Mexico	22	535	24x	1	37	25x
North Carolina	17	816	47x	3	80	24x
North Dakota	37	720	19x	8	47	5x
Ohio	8	1,041	135x	1	76	59x
Oklahoma	16	1,116	70x	2	158	68x
Oregon	21	512	23x	3	32	8x
Rhode Island	63	468	6x	4	98	22x
South Carolina	12	322	26x	3	39	13x
South Dakota	30	515	16x	6	74	11x
Tennessee	17	613	36x	2	105	44x
Texas	4	735	185x	0.7	61	85x
Utah	33	205	5x	1	15	12x
Vermont	8	468	61x	3	24	7x
Virginia	6	906	155x	2	41	23x
Washington	12	606	50x	2	34	13x
Washington, D.C.	7	3,326	448x	2	55	23x
Wisconsin	20	652	32x	2	30	13x

 

Sources: State health departments (breakthrough hospitalizations, breakthrough deaths and some total deaths), U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (hospitalizations), New York Times database of cases and deaths (some deaths)

 

Methodology

The Times asked all 50 states and Washington, D.C., to provide data on breakthrough infections, hospitalizations and deaths of fully vaccinated people, roughly spanning back to the first months of the vaccination campaign at the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021. Many of the states provided data through June or July, which may not account for the recent surge in Delta variant infections. In every state providing information, hospitalizations and deaths among fully vaccinated people accounted for a small minority of the totals.

Forty-four states, plus Washington, D.C., shared some breakthrough hospitalization or death information with The Times, though some provided only two months or less of records. Those states — Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland and Wyoming — were excluded from the analysis. Three additional states — Iowa, Missouri and Pennsylvania — said they were unable to provide data on breakthroughs because their own systems did not effectively track them. Florida, Kansas and New York did not provide any data on breakthrough hospitalizations or deaths.

The states define breakthrough cases in different ways and provided data for different periods, so exercise caution when making comparisons. Some count fully vaccinated people who tested positive for the virus, even if they had no symptoms, while others do not. Some considered a case a breakthrough only if the person had been fully vaccinated for 14 days or more. Some states said that they did not know the hospitalization status of all of their breakthrough infections or that they only received data from a subset of hospitals. Some states said their breakthrough data was preliminary and subject to change.

Some hospitalizations and death records lacked vaccine status altogether. Data for individuals who were not fully vaccinated includes partially vaccinated people, unvaccinated people, and people with unknown vaccination status.

The Times used data reported by hospitals to the Department of Health and Human Services for new Covid-19 hospital admissions to calculate total hospitalizations in each state across the same time period, as well as to calculate the number of hospitalized people in each state who were not fully vaccinated. The data can overestimate the amount of people hospitalized if the same person is admitted to a hospital multiple times, and the data can lag. The Times counted confirmed and probable virus hospitalizations in adults and children. For Rhode Island, the Times used total hospitalization data provided by the state instead of federal data because it was more complete.

The analysis used state data for total Covid-19 deaths when it was possible to do so. If it was not available, The analysis used death data from The New York Times coronavirus database.

The rates for fully vaccinated and not fully vaccinated groups were calculated from the average number of people in each group across all days within the period for which data was provided. Because only a total number of breakthrough hospitalizations or deaths for the entire period was available, rates cover different periods for each state. Rate calculations are based on the entire fully vaccinated and not fully vaccinated population, not any measure of who has been exposed to Covid-19.

[curious]

1 hour ago, Hesi said:

The data in NZ shows that infections are heavily weighted towards unvaccinated/single jabbed people.

Where do you get that from? I haven't seen that.

[curious]

Re the US data, I am not arguing that vaccination does not reduce symptoms, severe symtoms, hospitilisations or mortality. I am not aware of any sound data that suggests it reduces infection rates in the vaccinated population though as your people in Wellington would have us believe by the sneaky (or sloppy and misleading) use of language.