Autumn Super Draft Comp Round 14 (Final) - Sat June 13 - selection thread

[PWJ]

Round 14 (Final) - Saturday June 13

RULE CHANGE REGARDING POSTING OF SELECTIONS - please read

ALL selections must be posted 20 minutes before the start time of comp race 1 including best bets. ALL selections must be contained in the one post. If a competitor has not selected by the 20 minute prior cut off time then the Captain (or appointed team mate) may post up until 10 minutes before the start time of comp race 1. Also any missing or excess best bets and any scratching replacements for team members can be posted in that period if not already remedied. No selections or scratching replacements will be allowed past the final cut off of 10 minutes before the start time of comp race 1. Any questions, please ask before Saturday.

A couple of races from the Parramatta swamp that is Rosehill but the bulk of the card is from the wide open spaces of Eagle Farm.

Good luck everyone and keep safe.

Selections Close off at 1.15pm (NZ time)

Races are:

1. Eagle Farm R1 - 1.35pm - XXXX Dry Hdcp - $65k, 1300m, colts/gelds BM 85 hdcp

2. Eagle Farm R2 - 2.10pm - lexus Hdcp - $65k, 1300m, fillies/mares BM 85 hdcp

3. Rosehill R3 - 2.35pm - Yes Yes Yes New To Coolmore Hdcp - $100k, 1500m, fillies/mares BM 78 hdcp

4. Rosehill R4 - 3.10pm - TAB Winter Cup (LR) - $150k, 2400m, qlty Hdcp

5. Eagle Farm R4 - 3.22pm - TAB Long May We Play Dalrello Stks (LR) - $85k, 1200m, 2yos SWs

6. Eagle Farm R5 - 4.02pm - Sky Racing Active Tattersall's Cup (Gr3) - $175k, 2400m, SW+Ps

7. Eagle Farm R6 - 4.40pm - TAB Ascot Hdcp (LR) - $85k, 1200m, qlty hdcp

8. Eagle Farm R7 - 5.22pm - Magic Millions The Roses (Gr2) - $175k, 1800m, 3yo fillies SWs

9. Eagle Farm R8 - 6.00pm - Ascot Green Eagle Farm Mile (Gr3) - $125k, 1600m, SW+Ps

10. Eagle Farm R9 -6.35pm - Quincy Dane Ripper Stks (Gr2) - $175k, 1400m, fillies/mares WFA

 

MUCH TOO FAST (3rd) vs THE JAMES GANG (4th)

Zac (6/7-3113.20/2993.40) v Jack (9/4-2869.60/2489.80)
Rex (8/5-2812.60/3427.80) v Steve P (5/8-2931.00/2643.80)
Craig (6/7-2597.00/2795.80) v Pete (4/9-3202.80/3963.60)
Ashoka (7/6-3430.60/3138.00) v Hesi (2/11-2791.80/3461.00)
Howie (6/7-2565.60/2951.40) v Blind Squirrel (8/5-2924.40/2593.00)

MAXIMILLIONS* (1st) vs ROLAND'S ROUGHNECKS (7th)

Max (8/5-3737.40/3277.40) v Pam (5/8-2190.80/2934.00)
Heather (10/3-3094.40/1870.00) v Gordy (7/6-3382.80/2066.00)
Rob (9/4-3588.00/2901.20) v Jen (3/10-1516.80/2424.40)
Graeme (7/6-2777.00/3007.20) v Gee (6/7-2753.00/1924.40)
Georgy Boy (7/6-3628.80/3280.00) v Roland (7/6-1982.00/2121.40)

HALL OF FAME (6th) vs FIVE-OH (2nd)
Ian (6/7-2832.20/2717.80) v John (10/3-3431.60/2398.60)
Midnight C (7/6-3494.20/4047.00) v Virgil (6/7-2884.20/3316.00)
Stevie N (7/6-2451.80/2544.20) v Moose (6/7-2266.40/2058.80)
Robert (7/5-2729.80/2515.60) v Punter Pete (9/4-2883.80/2683.80)
Jamison (3/10-2878.60/3183.40) v The Crucible (8/5-2610.40/2156.60)

THE TIGERS (8th) vs COVID-Y (5th)
Tom (4/9-2666.60/4241.80) v Ziggy (5/8-2651.80/3746.60)
Jill (3/10-2795.80/3860.00) v Rocky (9/4-2891.00/2406.60)
Maurice (9/4-3522.00/2257.00) v Gary (4/9-2254.20/3372.00)
Sharne (3/10-2397.40/4021.60) v Porky (8/5-3626.40/2641.00)
PJ (8/5-2771.40/2340.80) v Ray (8/5-2534.40/1980.00)

THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN
3737.40 Max (Maximillions)

3628.80 Georgy Boy (Maximillions)

3626.40 Porky (Covid-Y)

3588.00 Rob (Maximillions)

3522.00 Maurice (Tigers)

3494.20 Midnight C (Hall of Fame)

3431.60 John (Five-Oh)

 

THE SERENDIPITOUS SIX (those with the least $$ scored against them)

Roland (7/6-2121.40) (Roland's Roughnecks)

Gordy (7/6-2066.00) (Roland's Roughnecks)

Moose (6/7-2058.80) (Five-Oh)

Ray (8/5-1980.00) (Covid-Y)

Gee (6/7-1924.40) (Roland's Roughnecks)

Heather (10/3-1870.00) (Maximillions)

 

THE UNFORTUNATE FIVE (those with the most $$ scored against them)

Jill (5/8-3860.00) (The Tigers)

Pete (4/9-3963.60) (James Gang)

Sharne (3/10-4021.60) (The Tigers)

Midnight C (7/6-4047.00) (Hall of Fame)

Tom (4/9-4241.80) (The Tigers)

 

TABLE after ROUND 13

1st 33 Maximillions $16,835.40

2nd 32 Five-Oh $14,075.40*

3rd 27 Much Too Fast $14,649.60*

---------qualified for the finals above this line---------------

4th 22 James Gang $14,722.60*

------------finals qual mark--------------

5th 20 Covid-Y $13,955.20*

6th 19 Hall of Fame $14,507.80*

------------unable to qualify for the finals below this line------------

7th 15 Roland's Roughnecks $11,832.20*

8th 14 The Tigers $14,174.20*

[PWJ]

Fascinating showdown on Saturday with 3 sides hoping to snare the last berth available to make the Finals. Here's a summary of their chances:

THE JAMES GANG

Currently in the coveted 4th position going into the weekend, they can determine their own fate and assure themselves of qualification by taking 4 points from their match - 5-0 win with no team profit or 4-1 win with a team profit - effectively shutting out their two rivals no matter what they do. There's just one snag - they are up against Much Too Fast, frequent match winners with a couple of star players in their midst. On HTH match-ups it's a narrow win to MTF but on an aggregate the match-ups favour The James Gang.  It's not impossible that "The Gang" will simply win handsomely and take Covid-Y and Hall of Fame out of the equation. But if they lose, they would have to hope Covid-Y and Hall of Fame do likewise  and in Covid-Y's case don't snag a couple of bonus points in defeat !

 

COVID-Y

The quiet achievers who just get on with it without too much bluster and jibber-jabber, Covid-Y could well steal into the Finals with the minimum of fuss on Saturday by just winning and taking any advantage that a James Gang loss might present. Their aggregate is more than $700 inferior to that of The James Gang so they will probably need to outscore them by 3 points but a scoreless loss by The James Gang to Much Too Fast together with a 4-1 win for Covid-Y with no team profit or a 3-2 win with a team profit will do nicely for them. And their opposition ? Covid-Y face the bottom-placed Tigers who interestingly actually have a higher team aggregate then the "virus boys". On HTH wins Covid-Y look favoured to win but on aggregates in the match-ups a 3-2 win to The Tigers is predicted. The Tigers can't qualify but you can be sure they will not want to finish last and have plenty to play for. Could go either way this one.

 

HALL OF FAME

These guys valiantly defeated the table leaders last Saturday to keep themselves in with a chance but they will not only need to play a blinder themselves but will have to rely on two other results going their way. It's a long shot but not impossible. First they need to hope the James Gang score 0 or perhaps just one point against MTF. Secondly they have to hope The Tigers can overcome Covid-Y or at least hold them to a narrow 2 point win. Then Hall of Fame must win their own match in spectacular fashion taking 4 points (4-1 win with team profit or 5-zip with no team profit) or even 5 (5-zip with team profit). Trouble is they are playing the incredibly cunning Five-Oh who seem to just do enough to win their match each week and are currently 13 points the better on the table. Currently winners of 10 of their 13 matches Five-Oh are possibly the toughest opponents Hall of Fame could face. Five-Oh look 3-2 winners on HTH match stats but on aggregates Hall of Fame - with a better team aggregate of more than $400 - are favoured 3-2. Still, it is a Super Comp and anything could happen......

[Maximus]

LAST CHANCE SALOON - SAT 13 JUNE

Well, peeps ...have you improved/maintained/worsened your position since HALF WAY HOUSE (Round 7)? Give it heaps on Saturday and who knows, you might rocket up the leaderboard!

Max 3737.40
Georgy Boy 3628.80
Porky 3626.40
Rob 3588.00  
Maurice 3522.00
Midnight C 3494.20
John 3431.60
……………………………...…Mag 7
Ashoka 3430.60
Gordy 3382.80
Pete 3202.80
………………………….......Top 10
Zac 3113.20
Heather 3094.40
Steve P 2931.00
Blind Squirrel 2924.40
Rocky 2891.00
Virgil 2884.20
Punter Pete 2883.80
Jamison 2878.60
Jack 2869.60  
Ian 2832.20
…………………………........Top 20
Rex 2812.60
Jill 2795.80
Hesi 2791.80
Graeme 2777.00
PJ 2771.40
Gee 2753.00
Robert 2729.80
Tom 2666.60
Ziggy 2651.80
The Crucible 2610.40
Craig 2597.00
Howie 2565.60
Ray 2534.40
Stevie N 2451.80
Sharne 2397.40
Moose 2266.40
Gary 2254.20
Pam 2190.80
Roland 1982.00
Jen 1516.80

 

Edited June 10, 2020 by Maximus

[pete]

1 hour ago, PWJ said:

Fascinating showdown on Saturday with 3 sides hoping to snare the last berth available to make the Finals. Here's a summary of their chances:

THE JAMES GANG

Currently in the coveted 4th position going into the weekend, they can determine their own fate and assure themselves of qualification by taking 4 points from their match - 5-0 win with no team profit or 4-1 win with a team profit - effectively shutting out their two rivals no matter what they do. There's just one snag - they are up against Much Too Fast, frequent match winners with a couple of star players in their midst. On HTH match-ups it's a narrow win to MTF but on an aggregate the match-ups favour The James Gang.  It's not impossible that "The Gang" will simply win handsomely and take Covid-Y and Hall of Fame out of the equation. But if they lose, they would have to hope Covid-Y and Hall of Fame do likewise  and in Covid-Y's case don't snag a couple of bonus points in defeat !

 

COVID-Y

The quiet achievers who just get on with it without too much bluster and jibber-jabber, Covid-Y could well steal into the Finals with the minimum of fuss on Saturday by just winning and taking any advantage that a James Gang loss might present. Their aggregate is more than $700 inferior to that of The James Gang so they will probably need to outscore them by 3 points but a scoreless loss by The James Gang to Much Too Fast together with a 4-1 win for Covid-Y with no team profit or a 3-2 win with a team profit will do nicely for them. And their opposition ? Covid-Y face the bottom-placed Tigers who interestingly actually have a higher team aggregate then the "virus boys". On HTH wins Covid-Y look favoured to win but on aggregates in the match-ups a 3-2 win to The Tigers is predicted. The Tigers can't qualify but you can be sure they will not want to finish last and have plenty to play for. Could go either way this one.

 

HALL OF FAME

These guys valiantly defeated the table leaders last Saturday to keep themselves in with a chance but they will not only need to play a blinder themselves but will have to rely on two other results going their way. It's a long shot but not impossible. First they need to hope the James Gang score 0 or perhaps just one point against MTF. Secondly they have to hope The Tigers can overcome Covid-19 or at least hold them to a narrow 2 point win. Then Hall of Fame must win their own match in spectacular fashion taking 4 points (4-1 win with team profit of 5-zip with no team profit) or even 5 (5-zip with team profit). Trouble is they are playing the incredibly cunning Five-Oh who seem to just do enough to win their match each week and are currently 13 points the better on the table. Currently winners of 10 of their 13 matches Five-Oh are possibly the toughest opponents Hall of Fame could face. Five-Oh look 3-2 winners on HTH match stats but on aggregates Hall of Fame - with a better team aggregate of more than $400 - are favoured 3-2. Still, it is a Super Comp and anything could happen......

Reading this has just made me incredibly nervous.

[VC!]

We could in fact qualify with 3 points even allowing for a 2 point COVID-Y victory we are only $200 in arrears of JG so we could finish on the same points and if we are finishing on the same points it’s more than likely we’ve passed their aggregate.... however we probably don’t deserve to be there winning I think just 3 matches???? Up against Five Oh who have only lost 3

These are the realistic odds worked to 100%
 

JG $1-50 ........66.66% chance

Covid-Y $4-00....25% chance

HOF $12-00.....8.33% chance

[Hesi]

1 hour ago, VC! said:

We could in fact qualify with 3 points even allowing for a 2 point COVID-Y victory we are only $200 in arrears of JG so we could finish on the same points and if we are finishing on the same points it’s more than likely we’ve passed their aggregate.... however we probably don’t deserve to be there winning I think just 3 matches???? Up against Five Oh who have only lost 3

These are the realistic odds worked to 100%
 

JG $1-50 ........66.66% chance

Covid-Y $4-00....25% chance

HOF $12-00.....8.33% chance

 

[craigos1]

A couple of races from the Parramatta swamp that is Rosehill but the bulk of the card is from the wide open spaces of Eagle Farm.

The greatest Rugby League team comes from the swamp......................Rosehill track will be truer than the kickback kaos that will be Eagle Farm

Last week Concrete

Their watering this week so likely to be Clod City!

JMO

[craigos1]

And I don't have anything against Eagle Farm.

I was a barmen in Members 96-99.....................I was lucky enough to see some nice horses in that time.

But their track has issues.

[craigos1]

Anthems Al Mansour Dracula won from 96~98

These were 3 of the Sires Produce Winners in Brisbane.

Why was there no 1999 winner?

 

[craigos1]

SOME GREAT WINNERS IN THE PAST

 

History

 STRASBOURG winning the BRC Sires' Produce Stks. Picture: Racing and Sports
The BRC Sires' Produce Stakes is a Group 2 race for two-year-olds conducted by the Brisbane Racing Club at Eagle Farm during the Queensland racing carnival.
The Sires Produce Stakes has a long history going back to 1882 and was held spasmodically until it became a permanent fixture on the racing calendar as the Queensland Turf Club Sires' Produce Stakes in 1916 until the QTC merger with the Brisbane Turf Club in 2010 to form the Brisbane Racing Club.
Eagle Farm was the traditional home of the Sires' Produce Stakes. The distance from its inception until 2012 was 1400m.
In 2013 the race was transferred to Doomben and shortened to 1350m. It is now back at Eagle Farm.
The BRC Sires' Produce Stakes is run under set weight conditions.
The BRC Sires' Produce Stakes was awarded Group 2 status in 1980 and was promoted to Group One in 1987. It reverted to Group 2 in 2006.
It was not held during the war years from 1942-45 and was lost due to adverse weather in 1988 and 1999.
The BRC Sires' Produce Stakes is a natural progression for two-year-olds who previously contested the G2 Champagne Classic over 1200m at Doomben earlier in the carnival and for those set to rise to 1600m in the G1 JJ Atkins.
The Champagne Classic/Sires' Produce Stakes double has been completed by Lovely Jubly (2002), Virage De Fortune (2005), Pressday (2010) and Sizzling (2012).
The Sires' Produce Stakes/JJ Atkins (TJ Smith) double has been won 12 times by Romantic Dream (1976), Luskin Star (1977), Zephyr Zip (1979), Royal Paree (1980), Flotilla (1987), Slight Chance (1992), Mahogany (1993), Anthems (1996), Juanmo (2001), Lovely Jubly (2002), Pressday (2010) and Sizzling (2012).
Tommy Smith (Sea Sovereign; Tulloch; Rajah; Merry Minstrel; Zahedi) and Eric Kirwan (Kiwanis; Prince Gauntlet; Heroic Isle; Zephyr Zip; Star Of The Knight) each trained five winners of the QTC Sires' Produce Stakes.
The 2020 BRC Sires Produce Stakes was increased to $1,000,000 in 2020 but was cancelled due to the coronavirus.
Other notable winners of the QTC/BRC Sires' Produce Stakes include Lough Neagh, Spear Chief, Prince Morvi, Tulloch, Fine And Dandy, Rajah, Charlton Boy, Karaman, Vite Cheval, Red Anchor, True Version, Shame, Al Mansour, Dracula, Danleigh, Shoot Out, Hot Snitzel, Zoustar and Melody Belle.
The 2019 BRC Sires' Produce Stakes was won by Strasbourg from Accession and Garibaldi.

 

Previous BRC Sires' Produce Stakes Winners

Date	Horse	Jockey	WT	Trainer	BP
25 May 2019	STRASBOURG (AUS) 2C I AM INVINCIBLE (AUS) - DANISH SPY (AUS) DANE SHADOW (AUS)	TOMMY BERRY	57.0	P & P SNOWDEN	2
26 May 2018	LEAN MEAN MACHINE (AUS) 2C ZOUSTAR (AUS) - SHE'S MEANER (AUS) FALVELON (AUS)	C W BROWN	57.0	CHRIS WALLER	10
27 May 2017	MELODY BELLE (NZ) 2F COMMANDS (AUS) - MELEKA BELLE (NZ) IFFRAAJ (GB)	O P BOSSON	55.0	S AUTRIDGE & J RICHARDS	7
28 May 2016	ATTENTION (AUS) 2G STRATUM (AUS) - FLAMBOYANCE (AUS) SNOWLAND (AUS)	B SHINN	57.0	P & P SNOWDEN	5
23 May 2015	LOOK TO THE STARS (AUS) 2F I AM INVINCIBLE (AUS) - STAR PRIZE (ARG) SOUTHERN HALO (USA)	LUKE TARRANT	55.0	CLARRY CONNERS	3
24 May 2014	TIME FOR WAR (AUS) 2C SNITZEL (AUS) - LADY ZABELIA (NZ) ZABEEL (NZ)	T ANGLAND	57.0	GERALD RYAN	1
25 May 2013	ZOUSTAR (AUS) 2C NORTHERN METEOR (AUS) - ZOUZOU (AUS) REDOUTE'S CHOICE (AUS)	J CASSIDY	57.0	CHRIS WALLER	9
02 Jun 2012	SIZZLING (AUS) 2C SNITZEL (AUS) - ADMIRELLE (AUS) GENERAL NEDIYM (AUS)	C MUNCE	57.0	KELSO WOOD	7
04 Jun 2011	HOT SNITZEL (AUS) 2G SNITZEL (AUS) - FLAMES OF PARIS (USA) BLUSHING GROOM (FR)	J BOWMAN	56.0	GERALD RYAN	7
05 Jun 2010	PRESSDAY (AUS) 2C DOMESDAY (AUS) - KAAPTIVE EMPRESS (AUS) KAAPTIVE EDITION (NZ)	J CASSIDY	56.0	CHRIS WALLER	10
30 May 2009	SHOOT OUT (AUS) 2G HIGH CHAPARRAL (IRE) - PENTAMEROUS (NZ) PENTIRE (GB)	D GRIFFIN	56.0	JOHN WALLACE	2
31 May 2008	FRAVASHI (AUS) 2C FALBRAV (IRE) - ANGELIC SMILE (AUS) DEHERE (USA)	C W BROWN	56.5	PETER SNOWDEN	5
02 Jun 2007	MASKED ASSASSIN (AUS) 2C DANZERO (AUS) - DUK DUK (AUS) CLAUDIUS (IRE)	L NOLEN	56.5	PETER MOODY	3
03 Jun 2006	DANLEIGH (AUS) 2G MUJAHID (USA) - GRACEFUL LILY (AUS) DR. GRACE (NZ)	M RODD	55.5	R H THOMSEN	15
04 Jun 2005	VIRAGE DE FORTUNE (AUS) 2F ANABAA (USA) - VIRAGE (AUS) KENMARE (FR)	G CHILDS	53.0	BRUCE MCLACHLAN	4
05 Jun 2004	STAR SHIRAZ (AUS) 2F SEQUALO (AUS) - STARSHINE EXPRESS (AUS) SEMIPALATINSK (USA)	G BOSS	53.0	R G LIPP	2
31 May 2003	LIGHTNING STAR (AUS) 2 GRAND LODGE (USA) - EMERGENCY (AUS) MARAUDING (NZ)	S GALLOWAY	55.5	JOHN HAWKES	10
01 Jun 2002	LOVELY JUBLY (AUS) 2F LION HUNTER (AUS) - JABOULET (NZ) VICE REGAL (NZ)	B PREBBLE	53.0	DAVID THROSBY	10
02 Jun 2001	JUANMO (AUS) 2F FLYING SPUR (AUS) - LET'S SHUFFLE (AUS) MARAUDING (NZ)	G COLLESS	53.0	ALAN BAILEY	1
03 Jun 2000	REENACT (AUS) 2C MARSCAY (AUS) - ROLE (USA) GULCH (USA)	G DUFFY	55.5	JACK DENHAM	17

[craigos1]

The reason I put this up is I was always just a 2/2 punter.

When I worked at Eagle Farm............I was told I wasn't allowed to bet unless it was in my break:

The day Dracula won I had $79 to Win

Always think about it when Eagle Farm on!

(Apologies PJ for digressing!)

Gonna be a fun final round.

[VC!]

After their loss on Saturday 

 

[PWJ]

1 hour ago, craigos1 said:

Anthems Al Mansour Dracula won from 96~98

These were 3 of the Sires Produce Winners in Brisbane.

Why was there no 1999 winner?

 

This will make me look old but I was the groom one year (1988 I think) for Anthems' sire Palace Music when he shuttled back from Kentucky where I had been working for the Summer.... 

[Maximus]

...Queensland Turf Club Sires' Produce Stakes in 1916 until the QTC merger with the Brisbane Turf Club in 2010 to form the Brisbane Racing Club

The Mustelid notes the MERGER of two racing entities to form a third (presumably stronger, more viable and progressive organisation). Anyone from Avondale, Ellerslie and/or Counties awake and aware?
Adapt or die. Now is a good time, because there won't be another time.
MM

Edited June 10, 2020 by Maximus

[Maximus]

Trouble is they are playing the incredibly cunning Five-Oh who seem to just do enough to win their match each week and are currently 13 points the better on the table

Good chance of this upset happening, PJ cos SNM has already alerted us to his idea of having a 'quiet gallop' this Saturday. I mean, why try too hard when you won't be up against the Maximillions in the semis whatever happens?

However, I expect the result of Five Oh's half-dozen team conflabs this week will be to show a tad more respect to this week's oppo and try to snaffle the meaningless Minor Premiership off said Maxis just for the hell of it.

Who know, perhaps Five-Oh's streak of good luck posting narrow wins will come to an end just as the Tigers' 'let down' with a paralysing turn of foot...as long as the Ruffies don't do anything too norty ... 

MM

Edited June 10, 2020 by Maximus

[Steve Paul]

Only 1 person tipping HOF to make the semi so far?

Could you not resist John?

[pete]

12 hours ago, VC! said:

After their loss on Saturday 

 

Much better song and title.

 

[VC!]

8 minutes ago, pete said:

Much better song and title.

 

I thought for a minute that read Herbie

[Maximus]

1 hour ago, VC! said:

I thought for a minute that read Herbie

 

[VC!]

8 minutes ago, Maximus said:

 

That must be Hesi on the bonnet 

There is another one that springs to mind

Hesi goes Bananas obviously that’s Alana in the above caption trying to smoke that Banana 😆

[Maximus]

1 minute ago, VC! said:

That must be Hesi on the bonnet 

There is another one that springs to mind

Hesi goes Bananas obviously that’s Alana in the above caption trying to smoke that Banana 😆

 

[Maximus]

[PWJ]

Here's our stallion lineup for this year if anyone is interested:

https://issuu.com/arrowfieldstud/docs/stallion_book_2020?fbclid=IwAR0Lpg6Ub0lSIlnShu4OArajcZjoqlNRxFK677kfEVP9KhIVSSD9JwH1nGw

 

[pete]

53 minutes ago, Maximus said:

Saw this on another site.

 

[Maximus]

Dunno about the weight description, Pete. Mustelid Maximus is more in the 60-130kg range. Decidedly deadly, and difficult-to-catch is 100% correct ... but the bloodhounds are on poor Max's little Weasel tail with the sanctity of 1 Rocky Road, Bedrock in sight!

Edited June 11, 2020 by Maximus