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Things Melbourne Cup


mardigras

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A discussion on things Melbourne Cup.

I'll start with the recent change by RV to amend the allowance given NH bred 3yos. 

On the basis they've been given some sort of red carpet treatment.

Well they have because it gives them free entry into the race. The allowance provides that as it makes their benchmark weight lower and order entry is largely based on difference between weight allocated and the benchmark weight for the horse based on age/gender.

Increasing the benchmark won't change anything in the race if the weight they are allocated is the same amount different to a new benchmark. They will still get in the field as easily as they do now. And the change will have little to zero impact on their chances of winning.

And if they decide to weight their performances higher (as has also been suggested) that will bring lesser NH 3yos higher up the entry order making it even easier for an NH 3yo to make the field. 

Instead, why don't they scrap all age/gender allowances and weight them as they should, as a handicap effin race. Forget stupid WFA allowances and handicap them appropriately. Or are they too useless to do that.

It's like giving Winx 61kg on handicap and then saying, no, she's female. Take a couple of kilos off that, you poor female.

How stupid are these people? 

Well done on that. 

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Things to consider 

The last 3 Cup winners have carried 51kg 51.5kg 52kgs

35 out of the 150 cups have been won by the fav

71 of the favs have finished in the top 3 (47%)

Not one mare has won the cup in the last 13 years the last mare to win was the freak MD

9 Stallions have won the cup in the last 13 years

90/150  Stallion/Colts have won the cup

No horse over the age of 8 has won the cup

I think only two 8 year olds have won the cup 

137 out of the 150 Cups have been won by horses aged less than 7

The NH 3year olds have been rolled out the red carpet as Mardi has said and the likes of Aiden O’Brien has a truckload of 3 year old colts in his barn between him and Charlie Appleby they know exactly what type of 3-4 year old it takes to win this race they will be gifted into the race

No longer is the cup treated as a handicap which is supposed to equal things out ability wise

Once the first acceptances are released I know exactly where my focus will be on and I can tell you now it’s highly unlikely it will be at the top end of the weight scale

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From a stats point of view (which I am no fan of), you also have to consider how many of each of those groups start in the race. 

The last 3 years may mean nothing. If they were gifted the race, why didn't they each start warm favourite. Surely the 'gift' would be obvious. They are gifted entry into the race (along with a weight below what it should be).

If they continue to give the 3yos free entry, then they are bound to perform, just as they do in the UK. They don't get weighted on shown ability by Carpenter, he weights them on age.

Edited by mardigras
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14 hours ago, VC! said:

 

Once the first acceptances are released I know exactly where my focus will be on and I can tell you now it’s highly unlikely it will be at the top end of the weight scale

If the best horse is weighted near the bottom, then I'd certainly be looking at the bottom weights. 

I think the best horse tends to win the Melbourne Cup.

Makybe Diva (whatever weight), Protectionist, Counter Cross etc. 

The best horse wins (most often). MD won by the same margin 3 years running. Each year with a different weight.

 

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To answer one of your questions when I go through the fields and i’m Rating each horse against one another I don’t even look at the difference in weight

I used to and I say USED TO look at barrier draws I was of the mythical belief that barriers played a large part in the horses performance I have now discarded barriers to some extent

I still look at speed maps which dictates the likely tempo of the race, and if a race is looking like the first 600 is going to be run at a cracking pace and the horse drawn wide is a likely leader Then the barrier comes into play having said that any barrier comes into play as they are likely to cut at one another

As for the Melbourne Cup I put some serious coin on the race so treat it very seriously I agree the best horse is likely to win and the best horse is not necessarily the favourite 

Things might be different this year

Its a process of elimination half the field won’t stay the 2 mile I will narrow the field down to about 6 and invest accordingly 

Order of entry Will they won’t they make the field  Quarantine need all be considered along the way, to completely rule out a horse because it has 55+kgs is just utter madness but going on the last 2 years and the class of trainer in O’Brien and Appleby they know what type of horse it takes to win this race they know they can qualify with next to nothing on its back even if Colin Carpenter raises the weight by 1kg

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, VC! said:

Its a process of elimination half the field won’t stay the 2 mile I will narrow the field down to about 6 and invest accordingly 

Right on brother. A race that rewards intimate knowledge of each runner. We have half the field to cross out like you say and untold mountains of random money thrown at the pools. Wouldn't mind the odd pacemaker but then Flemington is wonderfully fair so can't be too critical.

The weights are a mess of course - it's Carpenters little annual little-hitler project. There is for sure a room in his house filled with clippings of all the headlines he creates just for the sake of it. You know he loves it.

“We have put forward a proposal to Racing Australia to change the allowances under the Australian Rules Of Racing and the weight-for-age scale so that northern hemisphere three-year-olds are not more generously treated here in Australia than they would be if they were actually racing on the same day over the same distance in Europe,” he said.

“For example, a 3200-metre race on the first Tuesday of November we were giving them a four kilogram allowance against the older horses, which is the equivalent of eight pounds 10 ounces, and they were getting only seven pounds in the English scale.

“So, what we’ve done is we’ve amended the benchmark weight for northern hemisphere three-year-olds in the Melbourne Cup from 55-1/2-(kilograms) to 56-1/2. So instead of getting four kilos off the older horses, they will now get three.” (link)

1kg hardly worth worrying about. They are still 6 months bigger and stronger. I would have thought the fair thing to do would be to give them the midpoint of the 3yo and 4yo allowance.

Might start a thread to record building up an antepost book on the race this year, have been meaning to do more pre-November research for once.

 

 

 

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

I read this. I certainly dispute the veracity of the statements. Bold and italics.

The last top weight to win the Caulfield Cup was Dunaden in 2012 and prior to that you have to go back to Comic Court in 1950.  

Seems at odds with what the results say.

In the Caulfield Cup, Redcraze won in 1956. Pretty sure he was the topweight. As was Rising Fast in 1955.

Of course, Sky Heights won the 1999 Caulfield Cup (I was there) as the topweight, and Northerly won in 2002 as was there then also.

And Sydeston won as topweight in 1990. Along with Dunaden mentioned in 2012.

Comic Court didn't even win the Caulfield Cup in 1950 (he won the Melbourne Cup in 1950 as topweight).

I make that at least 6 in 64 years. about 1 in 11. Haven't even checked all the rest.

In the Melbourne Cup it was Makybe Diva in 2005 and then all the way back to Rising Fast in 1954. 

In the Melbourne Cup, Hyperno won in 1979 as topweight as did Rain Lover in 1969. And Comic Court in 1950. Along with the mentioned Rising Fast in 1954.

So that makes 5 top weights winning in the last 69 years. Given the number of topweights during that time, 5 seems pretty high to me.

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I’m looking forward to the puzzle nominations first acceptances order of entry then trying to put some sort of ratings in place then trying to get set at maximum odds

Trainer of Houtzen was interviewed at Royal Ascot he said the Melbourne Cup is unbelievable it’s not a race it’s an event, but Royal Ascot takes it to another level, I’ve never been to Royal Ascot geez my bucket list is getting long

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25 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Add to that, the 1951 and 1952 Melbourne Cups were also won by the topweight, making 7 topweights in the last 69 years. 

And Tobin Bronze won the Caulfield Cup in 1967. Making that 7 in 64 years. Not bad.

To make things worse, the last winning topweight of the Caulfield Cup wasn't Dunaden. It was Best Solution last year and before that it was Admire Rakti in 2014. That's makes it 9 in 64 years. The clown that wrote those comments is exactly that, a clown.

Edited by mardigras
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Curious, in your other post, I wonder why he couldn't even work out that Best Solution who won last years Caulfield Cup and Admire Rakti had both won since Dunaden. Top weight in the Caulfield Cup has been very successful - one of these elite handicaps not just any old handicap race. Maybe he'll want to eliminate that one from his 'supporting evidence'.

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10 minutes ago, curious said:

So at least double the expected win rate for both races I'm guessing and he suggests drawing a line through the topweight!

Even before assessing the rest, he started off being unable to back the winner in 3 of the last 7 Caulfield Cups. Good thinking.

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I thought I'd give my view on where I think horses might be weighted in the Melbourne Cup (assuming nominated - of which many won't be).  Might be miles out of course. Feel free to put your own thoughts on these weights. These are based on horses currently included in the Betfair antepost event.

Horse

Weight

Almond Eye

58

Avilius

58

Kew Gardens

57.5

Stradivarius

57.5

Cross Counter

57

Defoe

57

Ghaiyyath

57

Torcedor

56.5

Dee Ex Bee

56

Flag Of Honour

55.5

Marmelo

55.5

Ispolini

55

Amade

54.5

Holdthasigreen

54.5

Magic Circle

54.5

Morando

54.5

Rekindling

54.5

A Prince Of Arran

54

Called To The Bar

54

Capri

54

Latrobe

54

Rostropovich

54

Gold Mount

53.5

Johannes Vermeer

53.5

Roger Barows

53.5

Southern France

53.5

Duretto

53

Finche

53

Muntahaa

53

Yucatan

53

Look Twice

52.5

Mikki Swallow

52.5

Mootasadir

52.5

Neufbosc

52.5

Wells Farhh Go

52.5

Vengeur Masque

52.5

Extra Brut

52

Master Of Reality

52

Big Duke

51.5

Falcon Eight

51.5

Nagano Gold

51.5

Shraaoh

51.5

Sixties Groove

51.5

Thomas Hobson

51.5

Twilight Payment

51.5

Quorto

51

Youngstar

51

Jaameh

51

Steel Prince

51

Surprise Baby

51

Withhold

51

Low Sun

50.5

Yogi

50.5

Django Freeman

50

Rondinella

50

Verry Elleegant

50

Ben Vrackie

50

Broome

50

Dubhe

50

Furrion 

50

Ghostwatch

50

Spanish Mission

50

Downdraft

50

Etymology

50

Runaway

50

Kings Advice

50

Vow And Declare

50

Chapada

50

Hush Writer 

50

Schabau

50

Dubai Tradition

50

Felaar

50

Mugatoo

50

 

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I would expect Avilius to be allocated around 54 kgs

He carried 54.5 in last years cup and ran 22nd

The big watch for me is Finche he has had a good 12 months to acclimatise is with the Master trainer Chris Waller  who only had him briefly last year where he finished 3rd close up in the Geelong Cup then a credible 4th in the Melbourne Cup

Waller has never won the Melbourne Cup this race eludes the Master trainer

Finche never raced in the Autumn probably planned You would imagine Finche will easily qualify He should get around 54.5kgs for the cup which suits my assessment he carried 54kgs last year and ran 4th

He will be very closely watched by myself Waller will have him at the trials next month  his whole preparation will be planned towards one race the first Tuesday in November 

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Finche has already qualified and will get enough weight. My weights are relative so are based on a top weight of 58kg, 

I can't see him getting more than that since he hasn't started since, he earned a point adjustment for his 4th.Probably unlucky to get that.

(My weights above are based on no changes from performances between now and release of weights).

I believe Carpenter still uses ratings to weight the race predominantly. Avilius is 9 ratings points higher in Victoria than he was when weighted for the Cup last time. He was also inconvenienced in the run so my view is that it is unlikely to play much part in the thinking. Since the cup he has had 5 starts, won 2 Group Ones, a Group Two, a Group Three and 1 1.4L 5th in another Group one. Prior to the Cup he had won nothing better than Group 3s.

Be interesting to see what happens. I don't think he'll run in the cup. I suspect they will focus on the Cox Plate with him.

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Cummings has a long-term aim of setting Avilius for the Melbourne Cup again after the stayer was knocked out of the race early last year, like you said.

Avilius has only been beaten 3 times in Australia 2 of those defeats have been at Flemington the latest as a $1-65 favourite in the Australia Cup 

All 3 of Avilius defeats have been left handed he is 6 from 6 right handed in Australia 

Thursday 29th August Nominations mid September order of entry

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1 minute ago, VC! said:

Cummings has a long-term aim of setting Avilius for the Melbourne Cup again after the stayer was knocked out of the race early last year, like you said.

Avilius has only been beaten 3 times in Australia 2 of those defeats have been at Flemington the latest as a $1-65 favourite in the Australia Cup 

All 3 of Avilius defeats have been left handed he is 6 from 6 right handed in Australia 

Tuesday 27th August first acceptances mid September order of entry

I don't think he is up to winning the race. But been wrong before. If he gets my suggested weight, I wonder what Cummings will think. If he gets yours, he'll probably think Christmas has come.

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Nominations Thursday, August 29, 2019
Late Nominations Tuesday, September 3, 2019
Weights Tuesday, September 10, 2019
First Declaration Tuesday, October 8, 2019
Second Declaration Monday, October 28, 2019
Final Field Saturday, November 2, 2019 at 6.30pm
Barrier Draw Saturday, November 2, 2019 at 7pm
Melbourne Cup Race Tuesday, November 5, 2019 at 3pm 
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2 minutes ago, mardigras said:

I don't think he is up to winning the race. But been wrong before. If he gets my suggested weight, I wonder what Cummings will think. If he gets yours, he'll probably think Christmas has come.

If he gets yours I doubt he will run

My weights are what I think Greg Carpenter will allocate the horses 

Avilius will probably run in the Cup with anything around 55kgs I would imagine

I would rather back the horse in the Caulfield Cup

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