mardigras Posted October 14, 2021 Author Share Posted October 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Hesi said: Is Delphi a chance, impressive in the Herbert Power They're all a chance Hesi 🙂 Heavily backed in the Melbourne Cup for a fair while now, so the view is that he is pretty smart. Fair bit of rain has fallen at Caulfield and a reasonable amount more forecast for tonight. Might be in the Slow 6 category (or even worse depending). Looking more and more like a typical Metrop every day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 5 hours ago, mardigras said: When most of the horses running in the top end staying races are imports, you're going to have some fail. The Caulfield Cup is a rarity with only a handful of imports this year. And it is a pretty piss poor field imo. I don't recall a horse rated 88 making the field with another as an emergency. Looks a bit like a Metrop field of horses trying to get into the cups. If it wasn't for the hype about Incentivise, it would be a shocker. Really? Had a look and they're all 100+ aren't they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 14, 2021 Author Share Posted October 14, 2021 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Maximus said: Really? Had a look and they're all 100+ aren't they? I wouldn't look at the handicap rating, but the actual defined rating for the horse. Charms Star rated at 88 at its last start. Constantinople hasn't been rated for his run on Wednesday, but was rated 87 the start before. Great House was rated 97 for his last start. Edited October 14, 2021 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 14, 2021 Author Share Posted October 14, 2021 Interesting in some ways that two of the early exempt races both resulting in the winner not starting. Mount Popa not running in the Caulfield Cup and Realm Of Flowers out of the Melbourne Cup - both having won the early exempt races for these cups. Mount Popa the Mornington Cup and ROF, the Ramsden. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 15, 2021 Author Share Posted October 15, 2021 It is pretty easy to see why NZ TAB performs so poorly. Take a lot at the odds on the Caulfield Cup today. And it doesn't matter that Bet365 will restrict punters, what they are trying to do is get as many of the losing punters as they can, punting with them. It's very easy to do, yet NZ TAB plays around with small numbers trying to eke out a profit. It's not bookmaking. It's being run by scared people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 130% market on race morning is totally ridiculous. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 15, 2021 Author Share Posted October 15, 2021 28 minutes ago, curious said: 130% market on race morning is totally ridiculous. All that market will do is increase the relative share of betting onto Incentivise - which means they would win big if he loses and lose big if he wins. Rather than doing their best to incentivise betting on other runners, to win big if he loses and lose less if he wins. It's a volume thing and at the moment the volume will be all one way, because who would bet on half those runners at the available odds? More betting across the field will still retain the profit should Incentive lose, and help reduce the losses if he wins. I seriously believe the people doing the odds at NZ TAB are thick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 15, 2021 Author Share Posted October 15, 2021 Track at a H8 this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 16, 2021 Author Share Posted October 16, 2021 16 hours ago, mardigras said: It is pretty easy to see why NZ TAB performs so poorly. Take a lot at the odds on the Caulfield Cup today. And it doesn't matter that Bet365 will restrict punters, what they are trying to do is get as many of the losing punters as they can, punting with them. It's very easy to do, yet NZ TAB plays around with small numbers trying to eke out a profit. It's not bookmaking. It's being run by scared people. And now, I'd expect the TAB got smashed. They could have reduced that loss by being smarter. But no, they're stupid. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rusty Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 On 10/16/2021 at 7:56 AM, curious said: 130% market on race morning is totally ridiculous. I agree. 134% is common for the harness racing markets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 (edited) Handicapping is well and truly dead. Incentivise gets 1.5kg for beating Persan by 5.25 lengths. The cup has shown that horses that get bigger penalties perform far better than they should if the penalty was supposedly to equalise chance. Wins 3 of the bigger Group ones - and gets to carry the same weight as two horses that have not even won a single Group 1. And gets 1kg weight from a horse that has won just one Group 1. It's why the cup weights have become nothing more than the means to make the field. They have no other bearing on the outcome. Moody's virtual threats must have worked. Edited October 18, 2021 by mardigras 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 NZ TAB Still showing their unbelievable skill. The Melbourne Cup market has the top 9 runners at over 100%. Last time I looked they typically accept 24 runners for the race - and these aren't even the final field. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 After the situation of last Saturday, Gold Trip heading to NSW and out of Melbourne Cup. I had expected to see Chapada stay in the noms, but also out. Down to 36. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 1 hour ago, mardigras said: After the situation of last Saturday, Gold Trip heading to NSW and out of Melbourne Cup. I had expected to see Chapada stay in the noms, but also out. Down to 36. Make that 35 with Young Werther out following scan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 I think it is fair to say that the cup is a shocker this year. Horses weighted on the minimum are likely to get in (without having to even earn a penalty). The level of entrant is well down on previous years, and it will be interesting to see how RV tweaks their rules for next year. Having been to about 20 cups, this would be the poorest set of entries I've seen compared to any of those. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 And now the standing CT scanner has failed - with only 19 of the 35 remaining entrants undertaken the scan. Apparently the other 16 won't be going through it. Problem? if that is the case, to me it is a problem. if it isn't needed for the rest, why was it part of the requirements? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 1 hour ago, mardigras said: And now the standing CT scanner has failed - with only 19 of the 35 remaining entrants undertaken the scan. Apparently the other 16 won't be going through it. Problem? if that is the case, to me it is a problem. if it isn't needed for the rest, why was it part of the requirements? Good question Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Mechanical problems shut down controversial CT scanner on Cup eve Standing CT scanner. Spike, with Dr Chris Witton and handler Carina Wickens. Picture: Pat Scala–Racing Photos By Stephen Brassel07:57pm • 25 October 2021 0 Comments The controversial standing CT scanner at the centre of mandatory Melbourne Cup scanning for all runners has struck mechanical problems and as a result been taken out of commission, at least for the time being, as an urgent replacement part is being shipped from the USA. However it’s a race against time as due to the impact of Covid restrictions on travel the necessary part may arrive too late. Racing Victoria (RV) advised on Monday afternoon that the scanner at the U-Vet Equine Centre had incurred a mechanical issue and as a result was out of operation with the result being the mandatory scanning of Melbourne Cup entrants was unable to proceed as planned on Sunday and Monday. “RV has been working with U-Vet and the manufacturers to source a replacement part which is in transit from the USA, noting that current Covid impacts on international travel will influence its delivery time,” Racing Victoria said. “The current expectations are that the scanner will not be operational until at least this Thursday, being the final day on which standing CT scans may be undertaken for the Melbourne Cup. “A total of 19 of the 35 fourth acceptors for the Melbourne Cup have been presented for a standing CT scan since 16 October 2021 in accordance with the veterinary requirements for the race.” As a result of the standing CT scanner being out of action the Racing Victoria Board met on Monday afternoon and determined a number of key actions in light of the issues which have arisen. Those actions include: All acceptors yet to undergo a standing CT scan since 16 October 2021, are required to present to U-Vet for comprehensive high-quality X-rays of their distal limbs on Tuesday or Wednesday with the X-ray results to be reviewed by the three international imaging specialists, as have the standing CT scans which have been taken to date. Should the X-rays taken identify any area of concern, then the horse may be required to undertake an MRI or standing CT scan (subject to availability) on or before Thursday, however should the standing CT scanner not be operational on Thursday any horse still to be presented for diagnostic imaging will be required to do so at U-Vet for comprehensive high-quality X-rays of their distal limbs. RV Executive General Manager – Integrity Services, Jamie Stier, said: “Since its installation two years ago, U-Vet advise that the standing CT scanner has examined over 200 horses, and this is the first time its had a mechanical issue so the timing is both unfortunate and disappointing. “We are taking a pragmatic approach to the situation. All Melbourne Cup acceptors will still be subjected to increased and unprecedented veterinary scrutiny using alternative diagnostic imaging at U-Vet before being cleared to start in next Tuesday’s race.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Blue Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Scan away. It won't change a thing. There are thousands of horses thundering up and down the tracks all over Oz and NZ everyday , and with those numbers will come break-downs. happens every day , racing or training. (even paddock) Just Like Human athletes, where the same thing happens, the Very ELITE often with injury. part of the risk of straining every sinew/tendon/muscle to be at the Elite level. Every horse (with their body weight) can strain/break something galloping up the race-track, training track and often just the paddock , at any old tick of the clock. think we've all seen it. The race horses are looked after as best as humanly possible while training , but injury disaster is a constant threat. No good just carrying on about Melbourne Cup runners. lately Brandenburg and Last years Cox winner Sir Dragonet (broke down and destroyed in training last week) are also casualties. Scanning the Cup runners won't stop it unfortunately Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 30 minutes ago, Lightning Blue said: Scan away. It won't change a thing. There are thousands of horses thundering up and down the tracks all over Oz and NZ everyday , and with those numbers will come break-downs. happens every day , racing or training. (even paddock) Just Like Human athletes, where the same thing happens, the Very ELITE often with injury. part of the risk of straining every sinew/tendon/muscle to be at the Elite level. Every horse (with their body weight) can strain/break something galloping up the race-track, training track and often just the paddock , at any old tick of the clock. think we've all seen it. The race horses are looked after as best as humanly possible while training , but injury disaster is a constant threat. No good just carrying on about Melbourne Cup runners. lately Brandenburg and Last years Cox winner Sir Dragonet (broke down and destroyed in training last week) are also casualties. Scanning the Cup runners won't stop it unfortunately I quite agree. I see no benefit in scanning a few horses for one race - it's poorly thought through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 It is such a high profile race that attract a lot more worldwide attention, that if a horse breaks down, which looks horrific, they can have claimed to done everything possible to anticipate or prevent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Blue Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hesi said: It is such a high profile race that attract a lot more worldwide attention, that if a horse breaks down, which looks horrific, they can have claimed to done everything possible to anticipate or prevent True, and Cox Plate is same, and Caulfield Cup in the past as well. Lots of overseas visitors are taking those 'very high profile in the world' races on too. Irish winning Cox Plate the other day. The scanning is a band-aid approach , that won't stop the Cup breakdowns. AntonyVanDyke,CliffsofMoher recently were horrific as you say. The Melbourne Cup a bit unlucky with casualties recent years it seems. and Plenty of controversy with 2 years ago MARMELO and ISPOLINI thrown out of race , with vet scans saying one thing and the connections saying another in some cases . scanning creating even more hysteria.? strongly suggests people are racing un-sound horses on purpose? so possibly not a great help with public perception at all. Perhaps they may of broke down if running in race, so the Vet opinion has saved them from disaster on the world stage and adding to the list of attrition. so scanning helping ? ...YOUNG WERTHER thrown out of this years Cup. Forced Scanning 'Intentions' are good, but descrimination is high, and public perception just a little more distorted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 26, 2021 Author Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Hesi said: It is such a high profile race that attract a lot more worldwide attention, that if a horse breaks down, which looks horrific, they can have claimed to done everything possible to anticipate or prevent Then it should be industry wide - otherwise they are only ding it to reduce focus from the animal activists, not because they see horses breaking down as being an issue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 17 minutes ago, mardigras said: Then it should be industry wide - otherwise they are only ding it to reduce focus from the animal activists, not because they see horses breaking down as being an issue. Too costly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 26, 2021 Author Share Posted October 26, 2021 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Hesi said: Too costly exactly - which makes trying to appease the activists in this way, a poorly thought through idea. They'll eventually use that against the industry by highlighting what they will do for one race - but they won't do it for all the other horses - bringing the focus back on their overall poor approach to animal welfare. The industry will then be between a rock and a hard place. What they are doing is like changing the whip rules for the Melbourne Cup. It's a stupid idea. Edited October 26, 2021 by mardigras 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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