Melbourne Spring 2020

[Midnight Caller]

53 minutes ago, mardigras said:

I thought this was funny.

15th: 3. Vow And Declare ($41) - Damien Oliver

"He's just not quickening now. He's very one-paced. I think we have to ride him a bit more forward to see if he can keep grinding away that way, because he's just not showing any change of speed."

I've not seen him show any change of speed. He probably wants to sit handy and hope for a slow run race like last year.

 

Maybe he is waiting for a horse to push him over the line again! Yes,talking through my pocket from last year😁.Best horse didnt win the MC.

Edited October 17, 2020 by Midnight Caller

[mardigras]

Buckhurst reportedly backing up in Cox Plate. Might put a question mark on a Melbourne Cup start. Don't see too many Europeans run three top end races in the space of 17 days.

[mardigras]

So Verry Elleegant gets a 0.5 kilo penalty. Carpenter proceeds to claim that's the equivalent of a length over 3200m.

A 6 time G1 winner, beating a horse rated higher than any international in my memory to run in the race (Anthony Van Dyck), warrants a supposed 1 length penalty.

What does that say abut the likes of Al Galayel and Chapada - copping 3 length penalties for beating a bunch of scrubbers in average time. Not to mention poor old Tiger Moth who copped a 5 length penalty beating another bunch of scrubbers in a G3 in Ireland. Those races must have been something else to warrant such comparatively massive penalties. 

I'm going to have to revisit my market - Anthony Van Dyck is giving 15 lengths to Persan. That should mean he wouldn't beat Persan, unless Persan broke down, went over the running rail, the jockey fell off or the jockey ended up facing the wrong way as they exited the stalls. This game is a piece of cake.

And in the 1955 Melbourne Cup, Rising Fast gave the two bottom weights a 42 length advantage. They must have worked hard at losing - since they didn't win.

Edited October 19, 2020 by mardigras

[VC!]

On 9/9/2020 at 10:02 AM, VC! said:

 

Melbourne Cup 

1) Russian Camelot 12-1

2) Sir Dragonet 38-1

3) Verry Elleegant 20-1

4) Master of Reality 34-1

5) Stratum 70-1 /Nickjack Cave 23-1

 

 

3 weeks tomorrow the Cup and just to update my top 5 I have Tiger Moth on top at the time I wasn’t expecting him to make the trip

1) Tiger Moth

2) Russian Camelot 

3) Sir Dragonet

4) Verry Elleegant

5) Master of Reality/ Anthony van Dyck 

I’m happy to be with Tiger Moth even though he copped a 5 lengths penalty and only beat scrubbers home, for me he fits the profile

Russian Camelot he now looks like he’s crying out for the 3200 more so than the 2040 of a Cox Plate, can’t believe he is so short for the Plate Magic Wand is better value at 26s

 

I also give Prince of Arran a chance, there’s something about Australia that he likes

[mardigras]

The reality is that this whole process is farce. There is no handicapping. The connections of Verry Elleegant suggest they would be unlikely to run with a penalty of 1kg or more. So what do they get. 0.5kg.

It's not an issue about the weight, it's the process of who gets what. It's an integrity issue to me.

[mardigras]

2 minutes ago, VC! said:

I’m happy to be with Tiger Moth even though he copped a 5 lengths penalty and only beat scrubbers home, for me he fits the profile

They would have wanted a penalty. But wow, a five length penalty. He'll need to be exceptionally good to overcome that - unless of course the penalty was only 0.5 lengths, in which case, he'll just need to be pretty good.

[VC!]

On 10/19/2020 at 4:45 AM, mardigras said:

Buckhurst reportedly backing up in Cox Plate. Might put a question mark on a Melbourne Cup start. Don't see too many Europeans run three top end races in the space of 17 days.

Apparently Grandslam has better credentials to run in the race than Buckhurst 

[pete]

2020 COX PLATE (2040m)

Saturday, October 24

1 - Kolding (10) 59kg

2 - Humidor (14) 59kg

3 - Fierce Impact (12) 59kg

4 - Master Of Wine (1) 59kg

5 - Mugatoo (9) 59kg

6 - Aspetar (3) 59kg

7 - Sir Dragonet (7) 59kg

8 - Magic Wand (4) 57kg

9 - Arcadia Queen (8) 57kg

10 - Nettoyer (13) 57kg

11 - Russian Camelot (15) 57kg

12 - Armory (6) 56.5kg

13 - Probabeel (2) 55.5kg

14 - Grandslam (5) 49.5kg

15 (em) - Buckhurst (11) 59kg

COX PLATE - TAB market

$4 Russian Camelot

$5 Arcadia Queen

$6 Armory

$9 Sir Dragonet

$13 Aspetar, Probabeel

$17 Kolding

$21 Magic Wand

$26 Humidor, Fierce Impact, Master Of Wine, Mugatoo, Grandslam, Buckurst

$201 Nettoyer

[Hesi]

That barrier draw for Probabeel is a godsend.  Hopefully a good ride by McEvoy, should see a kiwi win, so $13 is good money

[mardigras]

41 minutes ago, VC! said:

Apparently Grandslam has better credentials to run in the race than Buckhurst 

Bit of a joke imo, whether he performs well or not.

[mardigras]

2 minutes ago, Hesi said:

That barrier draw for Probabeel is a godsend.  Hopefully a good ride by McEvoy, should see a kiwi win, so $13 is good money

I think Russian Camelot has the best draw by a mile. If he is actually up to what the hype says, he will be near unbeatable from there, given the way the Europeans like to run.

[Mardy]

Am a fan of Humidor so i may throw a couple of dollars on him,tho would of loved it if he had a better draw,but he'll probably race back anyway,even if he did draw better.Apart from that nothing else really stands out,glad to see that Probabeel drew well,so that would have to give her a good chance. Should be another great race.

[mardigras]

Geelong Cup featured a few just outside the optimum weights for the cup.

For me, the winner (Steel Prince), went fair. Le Don De Vie had an easy run, but may not now have enough weight to make the field. King Of Leogrance battled away - can make the field, may be able to improve.

Fourth was Ashrun. He was the only run I thought was promising. On the cusp of making the field. Could be the smokey.

Fifth was Skyward. Had an easy run, but was lacking. May also not have enough weight to make field. But unless they thought he was going to run in such a lackluster fashion, I wonder whether they would just give him a break until next year. Maybe PJ is happy to comment.

The rest were also rans in an event that performance wise overall, was average.

[Stodge]

11 hours ago, mardigras said:

Fourth was Ashrun. He was the only run I thought was promising. On the cusp of making the field. Could be the smokey.

Yes, I thought he ran a very strong trial. All is best work in the final 300m and he won't mind the trip or any ease in the ground at Flemington.

[Hesi]

W S Cox Plate 2020

You would have to say, having a close look at that Tattersalls Gold Cup, that Sir Dragonet was the bet for the Cox Plate

 

[Stodge]

PONDUS goes in the Bendigo Cup but I imagine he'll have to win to get in the Melbourne Cup field. I wasn't that taken with his 4-y-o campaign and it seems a long time since he chased home ADDEYBB at Haydock.

[mardigras]

1 hour ago, Stodge said:

PONDUS goes in the Bendigo Cup but I imagine he'll have to win to get in the Melbourne Cup field. I wasn't that taken with his 4-y-o campaign and it seems a long time since he chased home ADDEYBB at Haydock.

Winning it would be unlikely to get him in the cup. He'd need a big penalty. An only due to 'favours' would he get that.

I'd say the Queen Elizabeth might be a better target if he runs well or wins.

[mardigras]

8 hours ago, mardigras said:

Winning it would be unlikely to get him in the cup. He'd need a big penalty. An only due to 'favours' would he get that.

I'd say the Queen Elizabeth might be a better target if he runs well or wins.

Went quite well - a bit impeded. But that was a field of 4th rate scrubbers.

[Stodge]

The odds up here as follows:

5/1 TIGER MOTH

7/1 SIR DRAGONET

9/1 ANTHONY VAN DYCK, SURPRISE BABY

10/1 PRINCE OF ARRAN, VERRY ELLEGGANT

12/1 RUSSIAN CAMELOT

20/1 BAR

SURPRISE BABY was fifth last year and put up a perfectly good trial in the Turnbull but we await the all-important barrier draw.

[mardigras]

54 minutes ago, Stodge said:

SURPRISE BABY was fifth last year and put up a perfectly good trial in the Turnbull but we await the all-important barrier draw.

Important to some. Not to me. I quite like the idea of drawing 18 in the cup.

[Hesi]

Vow and Declare, 21 last year

[mardigras]

5 minutes ago, Hesi said:

Vow and Declare, 21 last year

I think people know my views on barriers generally - but specifically to this race, they run 1k down the straight to start the race. Even for those that think barriers make a difference, isn't 1k enough time to put your horse in a place that negates the supposed disadvantage of the barrier? 

If that's the case, I think you need to find a better jockey.

[VC!]

On 9/9/2020 at 10:02 AM, VC! said:

Melbourne Cup 

1) Russian Camelot 12-1

2) Sir Dragonet 38-1

3) Verry Elleegant 20-1

4) Master of Reality 34-1

5) Stratum 70-1 /Nickjack Cave 23-1

 

 

Pretty happy with the above lot, Once I knew O’Brien lot were coming over I added Tiger Moth who went to the top of my list, not at the current quote, very short at present also Anthony Van Dyck

Mardi’s big hope Ashrun he runs in the Lexus and will go very close to winning that you’ll probably get around 5s Saturday and 15s Tuesday so right now you’d be better off taking him as an all up rather than the 65s on BF 

Ashrun to me looks a bit like Russian Camelot that he’s looking for the 2 mile, 

Hopefully none of my selections draw gate 18😁

Edited October 28, 2020 by VC!

[mardigras]

Someone either believes Russian Camelot isn't running in the cup, or that he simply isn't up to the hype. Bets being taken quite a bit between 50s and 100s overnight. And plenty at the 20s to 50s.

On betfair $1375 was invested(laid) on him at an average price of 20s in the last 12 hours. Which includes the general 12s and 13s that he was being bet at early on during that time.  Might not be much in the scheme of things, but some people would have been scared to take the bets thinking he must be out.

If it was just that it wouldn't win, could have just taken heaps at 14s - 15s repeatedly. 

2 of the top 24 under repeat vet inspections for being currently assessed as lame - Oceanex and Warning.

Edited October 29, 2020 by mardigras

[Stodge]

23 hours ago, mardigras said:

I think people know my views on barriers generally - but specifically to this race, they run 1k down the straight to start the race. Even for those that think barriers make a difference, isn't 1k enough time to put your horse in a place that negates the supposed disadvantage of the barrier? 

If that's the case, I think you need to find a better jockey.

Fair comment, that's a long way to the turn - at a bigger track, you might only have 400m to the turn which does make life harder.

I presume the issue is more with the way the race seems to be run - to the British observer, it's more like a French race with a crawl before a sprint down the straight. Despite that, you need a horse who gets 2400m rather than 2000m.