Stodge Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 10 hours ago, mardigras said: Barring a horse issue (or a feed based decision), this certainly looks the case. Into $5.50 NZ TAB now. As would be expected (to me). His win in a very slowly-run Foy was his first since the Epsom Derby and he's been made to look pretty ordinary at European Group 1 level. You'd also think on the balance of his form the quicker the ground the better - he ran well at Santa Anita on firm ground and didn't go badly behind MAGICAL in the 2019 Irish Champion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 8, 2020 Author Share Posted October 8, 2020 (edited) 43 minutes ago, Stodge said: His win in a very slowly-run Foy was his first since the Epsom Derby and he's been made to look pretty ordinary at European Group 1 level. You'd also think on the balance of his form the quicker the ground the better - he ran well at Santa Anita on firm ground and didn't go badly behind MAGICAL in the 2019 Irish Champion. Ordinary by UK standards. Oz staying G1 is about UK listed/G3 standard. If he runs even close to his Coronation Cup run, I doubt there would be anything that could beat him in OZ. Edited October 8, 2020 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 15, 2020 Author Share Posted October 15, 2020 On 9/9/2020 at 8:26 PM, mardigras said: Here's me at the moment - but may change once the Aidan O'Brien travelers are known. Caulfield Cup Mirage Dancer 51 Miss Siska 101 Toffee Tongue 51 Port Guillaume 21/Delphi 21 (40s available) Finche if those two above are not in The last two foreigners may not come over/make the field. Delphi got a very low weight for a G3 and Listed winner compared to many above. On 9/9/2020 at 12:02 PM, VC! said: Caulfield Cup 1) Quick Thinker 50-1 2) Master of Wine 17-1 3) Shared Ambition 30-1 4) Finche 20-1 5) The Chosen One 150-1 I still quite fancy Mirage Dancer. Now at 17-22s depending where you go. And Toffee Tongue - at 14-16s. My two Euro's not in it, and Finch is one of the favs. VC still has Master Of Wine, at around 8-9s, Finch around 12s and The Chosen One around 80-100s. If the rain arrives, i still like Mirage Dance. Wouldn't surprise me to see Avilius run well. And Dashing Willoughby is what I will be looking at now given the odds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 1 hour ago, mardigras said: I still quite fancy Mirage Dancer. Now at 17-22s depending where you go. And Toffee Tongue - at 14-16s. My two Euro's not in it, and Finch is one of the favs. VC still has Master Of Wine, at around 8-9s, Finch around 12s and The Chosen One around 80-100s. If the rain arrives, i still like Mirage Dance. Wouldn't surprise me to see Avilius run well. And Dashing Willoughby is what I will be looking at now given the odds. I think Mirage Dancer is still value at 20+ last year he was my on top selection, Buckhurst I picked him out 18 months ago for this carnival, and here he is, he doesn’t represent much value at his current quote Anthony van Dyck the class horse of the race, a win over Stradivarius is “A” grade form line, however he will want a dry surface imo VE will hope it rains all day no value whatsoever at her current quote, but a definite winning chance, only enhanced by the rain Finche he’s primed just lacks that turn of foot still a winning chance Master of Wine it’s now or never 2400 is in the go zone distance for him has been well backed Toffee Tongue must also be a big chance True Self over the odds will appreciate the rain All and all a tough race 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brown fox Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Good luck with whatever you back.I reckon you could pick 8 horses and still miss out I'm giving the Quaddie a big swerve🥺 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 One bet Barney also likes Mirage Dancer @ 20+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 49 minutes ago, curious said: One bet Barney also likes Mirage Dancer @ 20+ That takes me back. Didn't One Bet Barney used to be in the Turf Digest? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, pete said: That takes me back. Didn't One Bet Barney used to be in the Turf Digest? Friday Flash I think. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Betfair are going commission free on all races at Caulfield 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 6 hours ago, brown fox said: Good luck with whatever you back.I reckon you could pick 8 horses and still miss out I'm giving the Quaddie a big swerve🥺 now listen here Foxy One, cap'n Max expects much more confidence from you on this easy-peasy race..send me your top 2 selections inside the next 16hrs please 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 16, 2020 Author Share Posted October 16, 2020 (edited) Looking at the rain radar, it's raining at Caulfield. They are expecting a fair amount. Some will say it favours Verry Elleegant. Also may bring roughies like Mustajeer and Raheen House into more focus (from very rough prices), especially if they get up around the 25mm some are forecasting. Avilius might like it - a number of well supported may not. Edited October 16, 2020 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 (edited) One bet Barney is sticking. Rain or not. Edited October 16, 2020 by curious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 16, 2020 Author Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 minute ago, curious said: One bet Barney is sticking. Rain or not. Yep, I'm not wavering from Mirage Dancer. But I am still interested in Dashing Willoughby and Avilius. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 hour ago, mardigras said: Looking at the rain radar, it's raining at Caulfield. They are expecting a fair amount. Raheen House into more focus (from very rough prices), especially if they get up around the 25mm some are forecasting. I actually backed Raheen House yesterday @ $51 to run top three, I don’t usually back for the place but 50-1 to run top 3 got me interested, he requires a scratching to get in the field, Verry Ellegant should lap up the track conditions and is unbeaten at 2400 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 16, 2020 Author Share Posted October 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, VC! said: I actually backed Raheen House yesterday @ $51 to run top three, I don’t usually back for the place but 50-1 to run top 3 got me interested, he requires a scratching to get in the field, Verry Ellegant should lap up the track conditions and is unbeaten at 2400 He's already in. Aktau is lame and scratched. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midnight Caller Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 2 hours ago, mardigras said: Looking at the rain radar, it's raining at Caulfield. They are expecting a fair amount. Some will say it favours Verry Elleegant. Also may bring roughies like Mustajeer and Raheen House into more focus (from very rough prices), especially if they get up around the 25mm some are forecasting. Avilius might like it - a number of well supported may not. Mardi, Especially in Group races like the Caulfield Cup tomorrow, how much do you take into consideration the track conditions (or possible change)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 16, 2020 Author Share Posted October 16, 2020 10 hours ago, Midnight Caller said: Mardi, Especially in Group races like the Caulfield Cup tomorrow, how much do you take into consideration the track conditions (or possible change)? It just changes confidence in my assessment of their ability to perform to their best. But I expect it will change the available prices. That confidence then relates to whether I will bet on the runner as well. I have rated Raheen House well below the 200s available. But I'm not as confident he can perform to his actual ability on very hard ground, which they can get at Caulfield. If I was going to back him, then I would do it early if my confidence increased to a higher level. The punters change the prices more than I think the condition change affects their chance. It's a bit like the barrier draw. Anthony Van Dyck was late 4s/5s before the draw. Then 7s/8s after. That price change due to barrier is insane to me. And Warning was being backed at 17s pre draw - initially went out to high 20s with some and was trading in the early 30s on betfair! For AVD, that's like suggesting he was a 20% chance before and the barrier reduced his chances by 40% down to 12%. And if the rain has been reasonably high, the punters will go off him even more. I have him in my top two % chances. My confidence with him slightly reduces in the wet as his absolute best runs have been on good ground. But I may still back him if he gets out anywhere near 10s. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 16, 2020 Author Share Posted October 16, 2020 Track currently a Soft 6 with 13.2 mm rain last 24 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 The Caulfield track manager has just been on, reckons the rain band has passed through, should remain a soft 6 for the rest of the day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midnight Caller Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 (edited) Thanks Mardi, you are dead right with confidence being the operative word! That little seed of doubt has crept into the equation over the last couple of days, but I'm sticking with my Antes and a little e/w on #2 All the best on the punt today Edited October 16, 2020 by Midnight Caller Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 16, 2020 Author Share Posted October 16, 2020 Santiago is not running Melbourne Cup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 17, 2020 Author Share Posted October 17, 2020 (edited) Now that was a race! And Anthony Van Dyck was huge - take nothing away from Verry Elleegant though. And The Chosen One was very good also. Edited October 17, 2020 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stodge Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 8 hours ago, mardigras said: Now that was a race! And Anthony Van Dyck was huge - take nothing away from Verry Elleegant though. And The Chosen One was very good also. Yes, I thought Bowman did his best with the hand he was dealt on ANTHONY VAN DYCK. He must have forfeited so much ground and he was widest into the straight. I'm not sure the slower turf would have helped and he ran a blinder trying to give the winner 8 lbs. I thought PRINCE OF ARRAN ran a huge MC trial. Out the back but came home really well - he'll always be vulnerable to one with more tactical speed but he's got real place prospects if the barrier draw is kind. I believe FINCHE is another who would prefer better ground. The likes of BUCKHURST, TRUE SELF and DASHING WILLOUGHBY might as well get on the plane home now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 17, 2020 Author Share Posted October 17, 2020 I thought this was funny. 15th: 3. Vow And Declare ($41) - Damien Oliver "He's just not quickening now. He's very one-paced. I think we have to ride him a bit more forward to see if he can keep grinding away that way, because he's just not showing any change of speed." I've not seen him show any change of speed. He probably wants to sit handy and hope for a slow run race like last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 He's had his time in the sun, forever written into the history books, but would they even press on with another MC tilt after than run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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