mardigras Posted October 2, 2020 Author Share Posted October 2, 2020 13 minutes ago, Stodge said: Of the 12 Overseas challengers, only two from the UK - DASHING WILLOUGHBY and PRINCE OF ARAN but still a good number left from Aidan and Joseph O'Brien. And a few transferring to Oz (although most will struggle to make the field). Almania, Collide, Le Don De Vie and Involved. And a few interesting ones from various places, such as Ashrun, Port Guillaume and Skyward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 2, 2020 Author Share Posted October 2, 2020 Horses have all arrived at Werribee. If Anthony Van Dyck travelled well and settles in well, I'd expect him to be clear fav for the Caulfield Cup come race day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midnight Caller Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 (edited) Good to see Skyward heading down PJ. I have taken a few small antes with some "raiders from the north" and Finch in the cups. Skyward (20@66/1) Edited October 4, 2020 by Midnight Caller 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 4, 2020 Author Share Posted October 4, 2020 Gotta love the price for the Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double on NZ TAB for Russian Camelot. $91. He's available at 120s to win the first leg. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 What races do you think this list of 29 will run in Mardi Cox Plate Caulfield Cup Melbourne Cup or other? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 1 hour ago, mardigras said: Gotta love the price for the Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double on NZ TAB for Russian Camelot. $91. He's available at 120s to win the first leg. ?? 21's $91 is a poor effort though, a multi on current prices gets you $147 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 4, 2020 Author Share Posted October 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hesi said: ?? 21's $91 is a poor effort though, a multi on current prices gets you $147 They always do that on the stupid basis that for the multi to come in, the first leg has to happen before the second leg, so they therefore feel they can shorten the price for the second leg (compared to what it is at now). So essentially they are saying if you back that, you get 21s for the first leg, and the price of the horse changes to 4.5 for the second leg after winning the Caulfield Cup - (which he won't be in anyway). He's at 120s on Betfair for the Caulfield Cup and has been around that for a while - since it is strongly believed that he won't be running in the race. And probably won't pay up for next installment tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 4, 2020 Author Share Posted October 4, 2020 39 minutes ago, VC! said: What races do you think this list of 29 will run in Mardi Cox Plate Caulfield Cup Melbourne Cup or other? This is based on listening/reading some of the info - and some of my own thoughts - so maybe well off AVD - CC (if performs well, then MC) Armory - CP - but wouldn't have minded him going in the CC Magic Wand - heard the MacKinnon Tiger Moth - MC only Santiago - MC only Wichita - Kennedy or whatever its called these days Buckhurst - CC, MC Master Of Reality - MC Pondus - Queen Elizabeth Twilight Payment - MC Stratum - MC True Self - CC (if can get in), MC or maybe Queen Elizabeth Ashrun - Geelong Cup, MC Aspetar - CP Dashing Willoughby - CC, MC Prince Of Arran - CC or Geelong Cup, MC Involved - Highweight at Ballarat 🙂 - Or maybe Ballarat Cup Sir Dragonet - CP, MC Tinandali - Queen Elizabeth Mr Sachmo - MacKinnon Selino - Geelong Cup/Lexus. Needs to win Lexus to get MC start Almania - Highweight at Ballarat 🙂 - Or maybe Ballarat Cup Collide - Geelong Cup/Lexus. Needs to win Lexus to get MC start Le Don De Vie - CC or Geelong Cup, MC Nickajack Cave - MC (may run elsewhere if worried about making field) Port Guillaume - CC, MC San Huberto - CC or Geelong Cup, MC (struggling to make CC) Skyward - CC or Geelong Cup, MC (struggling to make CC) Sound Of Cannons - Queen Elizabeth But many make struggle to make MC as well. Attrition normally comes into it. Has been slower this year than normal and so getting into the field is going to be difficult for some. Skyward and Le Don De Vie may struggle unless a bunch decide they are out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 1 hour ago, mardigras said: Almania - Highweight at Ballarat 🙂 - Or maybe Ballarat Cup It’s a pity the cup day hurdle no longer exists 😊 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 5, 2020 Author Share Posted October 5, 2020 Probabeel going to try and attempt the Cox Plate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 I saw Michael Guerin's comment. If he is saying Randwick suits the horse more than Rosehill, then what is the logic behind Moonee Valley with it's turning track and short straight. Hard race to win coming well off the pace, 10 wide on the home turn, remember the king and Excellent In coming days he will need to make his next big decision, whether to stay in Sydney with Probabeel and target the A$7.5 million Golden Eagle there on October 31 or head south to Victoria for the prestige and historic honour of the Cox Plate at The Valley. The way she dealt to Sydney's best older milers on Saturday she looks a perfect mare for the Golden Eagle but it is run at Rosehill which doesn't suit Probabeel as ideally as Randwick. And perhaps more importantly owner Brendan Lindsay says while he and his Cambridge Stud team will discuss options with Richards, Lindsay already has a preference. "I'd like to see her go to the Cox Plate," says Lindsay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 5, 2020 Author Share Posted October 5, 2020 I read a report suggesting the decision was made. Cox Plate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 22 minutes ago, Hesi said: I saw Michael Guerin's comment. If he is saying Randwick suits the horse more than Rosehill, then what is the logic behind Moonee Valley with it's turning track and short straight. Hard race to win coming well off the pace, 10 wide on the home turn, remember the king and Excellent In coming days he will need to make his next big decision, whether to stay in Sydney with Probabeel and target the A$7.5 million Golden Eagle there on October 31 or head south to Victoria for the prestige and historic honour of the Cox Plate at The Valley. The way she dealt to Sydney's best older milers on Saturday she looks a perfect mare for the Golden Eagle but it is run at Rosehill which doesn't suit Probabeel as ideally as Randwick. And perhaps more importantly owner Brendan Lindsay says while he and his Cambridge Stud team will discuss options with Richards, Lindsay already has a preference. "I'd like to see her go to the Cox Plate," says Lindsay. Cmon Hesi you can't have forgotten Adelaide already. Just watched it again and that's exactly how they should ride Probabeel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 5, 2020 Author Share Posted October 5, 2020 It's a great track for back markers. As well as front runners. The corner is heavily cambered giving those making a wide run a likely advantage. You just can't wait until the turn to decide to get going. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LookingForValue Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/cox-plate-a-race-that-matters-as-probabeel-overlooks-multimillion-dollar-golden-eagle-20201005-p5623u.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Hesi said: I saw Michael Guerin's comment. If he is saying Randwick suits the horse more than Rosehill, then what is the logic behind Moonee Valley with it's turning track and short straight. Hard race to win coming well off the pace, 10 wide on the home turn, remember the king and Excellent In coming days he will need to make his next big decision, whether to stay in Sydney with Probabeel and target the A$7.5 million Golden Eagle there on October 31 or head south to Victoria for the prestige and historic honour of the Cox Plate at The Valley. The way she dealt to Sydney's best older milers on Saturday she looks a perfect mare for the Golden Eagle but it is run at Rosehill which doesn't suit Probabeel as ideally as Randwick. And perhaps more importantly owner Brendan Lindsay says while he and his Cambridge Stud team will discuss options with Richards, Lindsay already has a preference. "I'd like to see her go to the Cox Plate," says Lindsay. Based on racing style, Probabeel has a better chance than Te Akau Shark did last year and the financial return on 3rd was well worth it. In my view, Probabeel is a better horse. Edited October 5, 2020 by Maximus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 1 hour ago, pete said: Cmon Hesi you can't have forgotten Adelaide already. Just watched it again and that's exactly how they should ride Probabeel. ??? What race Pete? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Adelaide winning the Cox Plate you numpty 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 https://youtu.be/SlkrYUr1iDg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 12 minutes ago, pete said: Adelaide winning the Cox Plate you numpty 😂 Homo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 41 minutes ago, Hesi said: Homo You say the nicest things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 fact of the matter is that some horses handle the art of cornering better than others. I dont see any reason why Probabeel won't/can't handle MV. Whether she's up to beating the northern raiders is the query. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 6, 2020 Author Share Posted October 6, 2020 On 10/5/2020 at 11:42 AM, mardigras said: This is based on listening/reading some of the info - and some of my own thoughts - so maybe well off AVD - CC (if performs well, then MC) Armory - CP - but wouldn't have minded him going in the CC Magic Wand - heard the MacKinnon Tiger Moth - MC only Santiago - MC only Wichita - Kennedy or whatever its called these days Buckhurst - CC, MC Master Of Reality - MC Pondus - Queen Elizabeth Twilight Payment - MC Stratum - MC True Self - CC (if can get in), MC or maybe Queen Elizabeth Ashrun - Geelong Cup, MC Aspetar - CP Dashing Willoughby - CC, MC Prince Of Arran - CC or Geelong Cup, MC Involved - Highweight at Ballarat 🙂 - Or maybe Ballarat Cup Sir Dragonet - CP, MC Tinandali - Queen Elizabeth Mr Sachmo - MacKinnon Selino - Geelong Cup/Lexus. Needs to win Lexus to get MC start Almania - Highweight at Ballarat 🙂 - Or maybe Ballarat Cup Collide - Geelong Cup/Lexus. Needs to win Lexus to get MC start Le Don De Vie - CC or Geelong Cup, MC Nickajack Cave - MC (may run elsewhere if worried about making field) Port Guillaume - CC, MC San Huberto - CC or Geelong Cup, MC (struggling to make CC) Skyward - CC or Geelong Cup, MC (struggling to make CC) Sound Of Cannons - Queen Elizabeth But many make struggle to make MC as well. Attrition normally comes into it. Has been slower this year than normal and so getting into the field is going to be difficult for some. Skyward and Le Don De Vie may struggle unless a bunch decide they are out. 42 left in CC. Some such as Ashrun, Le Don De Vie, Skyward are still a fair way down the order at 29+. With three ballot exempt races still to run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 8, 2020 Author Share Posted October 8, 2020 On 10/3/2020 at 8:53 AM, mardigras said: If Anthony Van Dyck travelled well and settles in well, I'd expect him to be clear fav for the Caulfield Cup come race day. Barring a horse issue (or a feed based decision), this certainly looks the case. Into $5.50 NZ TAB now. As would be expected (to me). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 8, 2020 Author Share Posted October 8, 2020 Port Guillaume is out of Caulfield Cup. Lame - and throws future plans up in the air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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