Maximus Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, Hesi said: Shonky I see counsel for Bosson turned up unaware of the race day inquiry report and was reprimanded Indeed. Great 'case preparation' by Mr Dale, who couldn't be bothered reading the background to his client's parlous situation. I hope he ain't planning on sending an invoice for his 'work'. MM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, Maximus said: Indeed. Great 'case preparation' by Mr Dale, who couldn't be bothered reading the background to his client's parlous situation. I hope he ain't planning on sending an invoice for his 'work'. MM You can bet he will. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 You're pushing it uphill Barry, many are unable to comprehend the concept of value, and how it relates to punting to make money long term 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 17 minutes ago, pete said: You can bet he will. Pro bono is the word you budding legal eagles are looking for, and it does not relate to U2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, Hesi said: Pro bono is the word you budding legal eagles are looking for, and it does not relate to U2 not sure how doing something for free is a good thing if you dont even read the case details before walking in to the hearing to plead your client's case. MM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, barryb said: Not only about price value Hesi, these guys/gals over the last 2 yrs have consistently outridden the market assessed ability of the horse. IMO Lisa Appress based on the stats is easily the most talented rider in NZ over the last 2 yrs. Her performance is exceptional & she is over 20% ahead of any other rider in riding above the horses ability (market assessed). I presume that you have the data on this...of course you do Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 25 minutes ago, barryb said: In answer to the question about Jockeys from earlier here are the ones that are very postive expectation wise when they take a mount. Now just to stop all the dickhead posts before they happen, I am not saying that they would out do Opie in a tight G1 race etc, but overall they represent fantastic value when taking a mount and they consistently outride the market. In leading value order. Lisa Allpress (superior to all others by a wide margin) Kozzi Asano Craig Grylls Tina Comignaghi Ashvin Goindasamy Ryan Elliot/Johnathon Parkes Yep, from the group of jockeys that are well regarded (by public opinion and results), Allpress and Parkes would be the two for me that would deliver as good as any, without sacrificing price. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, barryb said: Do I use it? No as said many times on here & other sites, I cannot quantify it & therefore its useless to me before the race. And I also don't use any information on jockeys for the same reason. How can I determine the degree of assistance from the jockey? It would be attempting to apply some form of population statistic to an individual outcome probability (which is against everything I believe in) - and apart from that, even if you were happy to apply population statistics, the population statistic is extremely difficult to quantify as it is hard to determine what would have happened for a past result if a different jockey had ridden the horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, VvD said: Fully understand the concept of value. What Barry can't seem to grasp is that this debate was about the owner wanting the best jockey for their horse's chance of winning the race, not the jockey who gives them the best market price relative to ability. Two different things but it's not sinking in. I am not speaking for barry, but the best chance of winning the race is likely minimal between any decent jockey. Bosson or Allpress or Parkes or many others. The same. So many other jockeys will give you as good a result. Some jockeys will give you a worse result from the punting aspect of who the jockey is. There is very little to no evidence that I have seen, that Bosson actually rides better than other jockeys - but without doubt, he rides many more quality horses than the others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, VvD said: At least you can see that they are two different questions. They are different - but so far in this discussion, there has been nothing that defines Bosson as the best outside of opinion. The metrics I use, say he is equal to many others, but equally, no better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, VvD said: Do you think that might be because the owners and/or trainers of those quality horses have the pick of jockeys and they pick Opie because he is better than the others? Of course they do. Do you think that popular opinion is always right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 (edited) 5 minutes ago, VvD said: "Of course they do"? Do you mean of course they pick him because he is better than others? No I don't always think that popular opinion is right, but this is the opinion of horse racing people with years of experience of assessing horses and jockeys abilities. Of course they pick him because they think he is better, not because he is better. That's debatable. Why does he ride the same horse 0.2 seconds slower than the alternate rider when riding the same horse (on average), for the same track, distance, track condition - I suppose you think he does that because he is the best. As for your last comment, that's your opinion. And my view is it is wrong. And with all this experience of assessing horses, why do the likes of Te Akau have so many non performers from the horses they buy. Odd. Edited January 12, 2021 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porky Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 hours ago, mardigras said: Yep, from the group of jockeys that are well regarded (by public opinion and results), Allpress and Parkes would be the two for me that would deliver as good as any, without sacrificing price. OK BAZ...I,m with VVD AND without hours and hours of fact gathering (the average punter) already knows O.P is one of best and talented Jockeys in NZ (regardless of opportunities and dividends) and YEP Lisa Allpress then J .Parkes best value riders about. 1 minute ago, VvD said: "Of course they do"? Do you mean of course they pick him because he is better than others? No I don't always think that popular opinion is right, but this is the opinion of horse racing people with years of experience of assessing horses and jockeys abilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, VvD said: Syndicates I've been involved with have picked an awful lot of non-performers. I don't have any stats on Te Akau's success rate relative to other buyers at the sales so I can't answer your question accurately. I suspect it is only a very very small portion of horses bred that are successful and Te Akau probably aren't exempt from picking a bunch of non performers. Yet you've just gone on about their experience with assessing horses to such a degree that their opinion of a jockey outweighs any consideration that their opinion (and public opinion) is possibly wrong. This discussion is getting more bizarre by the minute. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Globederby19 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, VvD said: You're just twisting it now. I'm saying that if say 95% of horses are not successful then it would be reasonable to expect Te Akau to have failures. What I can't say is whether their failure rate is better or worse than average. That doesn't mean that Jamie Richards is not a good judge of a jockey's riding ability. And it will go beyond Te Akau - if you polled 100 trainers in the country I'm picking the majority would have Opie as #1 in terms of riding ability. I know one who wouldn't. But I shan't get into the semantics of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 (edited) 7 hours ago, VvD said: By the way if a horse's price is $2 then its theoretical chance of winning is closer to somewhere around 42% rather than 50%. The fact that you don't understand this speaks volumes. That's entirely dependent on where the $2 comes from. Where I bet, if the price is $2, the theoretical chance is 50% and no where near 42%. The fact you made this claim speaks volumes. Edited January 12, 2021 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 8 hours ago, VvD said: You're just twisting it now. I'm saying that if say 95% of horses are not successful then it would be reasonable to expect Te Akau to have failures. What I can't say is whether their failure rate is better or worse than average. That doesn't mean that Jamie Richards is not a good judge of a jockey's riding ability. And it will go beyond Te Akau - if you polled 100 trainers in the country I'm picking the majority would have Opie as #1 in terms of riding ability. I'm not twisting anything. They are in the business of assessing horses, yet you are happy that they make many errors in judgement in doing so. Yet think it not possible that they have made another error - even though they have all this experience. I can't speak about whether trainers are good judges of riding ability. And no one has said Bosson is not a good rider. I'd be inclined to believe that trainers use results as a major indicator of ability. If you assessed all the rides of Bosson and determined chance (ignoring jockey), and then compared that to outcomes, the question is whether he would outperform that expectation. i..e as a jockey, he actually improves the chances of the runner. So if you knew how to assess chance, and for all of Bosson's rides, you summed up the expectation (totally ignoring who the jockey is), and it was that his mounts would win 50 races, but it turns out he won 45, the that would suggest he rides less than the chance expectation. (This has nothing to do with the public price assessment). If he rode more than 50, that would suggest he rides better than the expected chance. And then of course, the reliability of that assessment would come down to the ability to overall accurately assess chance ignoring jockeys. I doubt that there is a single trainer in NZ that a) has done that and b) would know where to begin to do that. Which is very much what we have in this discussion from all the Bosson supporters. An opinion. One I suspect is highly based around his results without any consideration to the results of those horses for any other rider. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 hours ago, mardigras said: I doubt that there is a single trainer in NZ that a) has done that and b) would know where to begin to do that. Wrong. I am, at least officially, a trainer, although some may say not a trainer's ahole. However, I have done this numerous times over the last 20 years and even provided the results to clients 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 1:43 PM, curious said: Be interesting to see what they argued should mitigate the penalty. It looked pretty robust to me based on precedent etc. Getting back to the original thrust of the topic, it appears the Appeals Tribunal agreed with me and reading the decision, I don't see any relevant evidence presented by the apellant that suggests the penalty was inappropriate. I'm not really clear what hope they thought they had. Seems to border on the frivolous to me. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, curious said: Wrong. I am, at least officially, a trainer, although some may say not a trainer's ahole. However, I have done this numerous times over the last 20 years and even provided the results to clients Ahh yes, well, my apologies curious - I could/should have at least worked that out! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 17 minutes ago, curious said: Getting back to the original thrust of the topic, it appears the Appeals Tribunal agreed with me and reading the decision, I don't see any relevant evidence presented by the apellant that suggests the penalty was inappropriate. I'm not really clear what hope they thought they had. Seems to border on the frivolous to me. Going to be interesting to see what their reasons for rejecting the appeal are, when they are published, I presume on Friday. The main thrust of the appeal was based on emotional clap trap, frivolous as you say Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 24 minutes ago, mardigras said: Ahh yes, well, my apologies curious - I could/should have at least worked that out! It's only a fair approximation for sure, but there is easily available data on the TAB website showing strike rates for jockeys when riding 1st or 2nd favourites. Much better comparative data for mine than raw strike rate. E.g., Name: Danielle Johnson Stats: NZCareer (8163:976:823:713) .205 Stakes (734:70:68:56) .172 Fav (1016:309:197:109) .448 2nd Fav (1012:185:171:121) .317 Wint (1280:143:129:107) .196 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 Does anyone know the protocols for judicial reviews Allegedly, one has been filed. Does it have to be accepted? If it is accepted, does that put on hold any previous judgments, so Bosson could ride. If so, then if it is accepted prior to Sat, what would happen with the 2 plum rides that Danielle Johnson has picked up in the Levin Stakes and Telegraph. Could she be pulled off and replaced by Bosson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dancing Show Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 32 minutes ago, Hesi said: Does anyone know the protocols for judicial reviews Allegedly, one has been filed. Does it have to be accepted? If it is accepted, does that put on hold any previous judgments, so Bosson could ride. If so, then if it is accepted prior to Sat, what would happen with the 2 plum rides that Danielle Johnson has picked up in the Levin Stakes and Telegraph. Could she be pulled off and replaced by Bosson This might provide some additional info: https://communitylaw.org.nz/community-law-manual/chapter-3-dealing-with-government-agencies/challenging-decisions-and-conduct-of-government-agencies/going-to-the-courts-judicial-review/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
von Smallhaussen Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 7 hours ago, Hesi said: The main thrust of the appeal was based on emotional clap trap, frivolous as you say Karaka sales are looming and I would say the thrust of the appeal is Ellis getting his name and that of Te Akau in the headlines. Any advertising is good advertising as the saying goes.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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