Summer-Autumn Draft Super Comp - Round 14 - Sat Apr 6

[PWJ]

ROUND 14 - Sat Apr 6

SUBSTITUTE RACES - Please read !

Given the 100m rain that has fallen in Sydney and the likelihood that the Doncaster meeting will not be run midweek if postponed tomorrow, I have posted substitute races which will replace any races that are not run at Randwick. The sub races will run chronologically if Randwick is abandoned. I.E. If abandoned before 4.20pm then Caulfield races 5-9 will replace. If abandoned after 4.50pm the Caulfield races 6-9 will replace, etc. Captains be aware that ALL SELECTIONS MUST BE POSTED BEFORE THE REGULAR CLOSING TIME.

ALSO NOTE: The Final Round will be decided Saturday irrespective of how many races are run.

Well this is it - the big decider ! One team is qualified, one team cannot qualify and six others are scrapping for the remaining 3 Finals slots. The extrapolations on what team needs what to get a result are listed below.

We kick off at Trentham - the punters graveyard - with what looks a fairly open restricted sprint down the chute and then three 2100m stakes staying tests before the final Group 1 juvenile race of the season where most of the top babies meet again.

Then we board the plane for Sydney where the annual puzzle that is the Country Champs Final awaits us with 16 in-form brumbies from the bush go around in a frantic sprint. Coleman & Storm Boy look to avenge their defeat by Lady of Camelot in the Sires in what is a Golden Slipper replay with 200m added. Imperatriz takes on another top class field of Oz sprinters in the TJ Smith (some juicy odds on offer outside her) before the race of the day - the Doncaster Mile - where you have to narrow the 20-strong field down to two - good luck with that ! That takes us to the big decider - the ATC Derby - where we have seen a few upsets in the past. Choose carefully here as there is likely to have more riding on this one race than any of the races so far in the comp.

Old Mate (TJ play) and Showtime clash in a match where the loser may well pay heavily with  3 teams chasing them down, one with a regular Joker and one with a Triple Joker. Punter Pete will be looking for revenge over Jack who downed him by less than $60 last time. Should be a cracker contest between two teams level on points after 13 rounds.

Magic have a mammoth task with nothing less than a 5-zip win and other matches going in their favour as they take on the current leaders and form fiends Kaos. It should be remembered though that Magic ran out 4-1 winners last time they met and bettered the Kaos aggregate by over $1000 ! Ray, Stevie N and Jammo are all looking for redemption after going down to their respective opponents Sharne, Anita and Sasha last time they met

The dogfight of the day is surely the clash between The Reapers and The Seagulls with both teams outside the qualifying zone and the Seagulls holding a one point advantage while The Reapers have a Triple Joker up their sleeves. Last time they met The Reapers sliced up the Gulls to the tune of 4-1 and an over $500 better aggregate ! Pete and Hesi resume their HTH battle with Pete looking for payback after a thumping from the Hesimeister last time. This match should be a beauty !

Lastly we have the fascinating contest between Max Factory who are finding some form of late and Styx who have lost some form of late. The Factory crew are out to sabotage the Styxters who enter the weekend in a precarious 4th spot but are armed with a Regular joker . Any slip-up and The Reapers, Seagulls or even Magic could pounce on them. Last time they met, Max Factory upset the big boys of Styx in a very close contest. Can history repeat ?? Rob and Gordy resume their HTH battle from last time where Rob came out narrowly on top.

Remember you must have at least 6 different picks (of 20) for those who post after their opponent

Please post on time. Let's have some fun and note the closing time...

Close off at 11.50am (NZ time)

Races are:

1. Trentham R2 - 12.50pm - Resonant Premier - $65k, 1200m, R75 BM

2. Trentham R4 - 2.04pm - Higgins Concrete Manawatu Classic (Gr3) - $120k, 2100m, 3yos SW+Ps

3. Trentham R5 - 2.46pm - Martin Collins NZ Manawatu Breeders Stks (Gr3) - $120k, 2100m, F/M WFA

4. Trentham R6 - 3.21pm - City of Palmerston North Awapuni Gold Cup (Gr2) - $175k, 2100m, open SW+Ps

5. Trentham R7 - 3.56pm - Coutesy Ford Manawatu Sires Produce Stks (Gr1) - $450k, 1400m, 2yos SWs

6. Randwick R5 - 4.45pm - Newhaven Park Country Championships Final - $1m, 1400m, SWs

7. Randwick R6 - 5.20pm - Inglis Sires (Gr1) - $1m, 1400m, 2yos SWs

8. Randwick R7 - 5.55pm - James Squire TJ Smith Stks (Gr1) - $3m, 1200m, WFA

9. Randwick R8 - 6.35pm - The Star Doncaster Mile (Gr1) - $1m, 1600m, hdcp

10. Randwick R9 - 7.15pm - ATC Australian Derby (Gr1) - $2m, 2400m, 3yos SWs

 

SUB RACES

11. Caulfield R5 - 4.25pm - Stow Storage Bill Collins Hdcp - $80k, 1400m, BM70 hdcp

12. Caulfield R6 - 5.00pm - Marshall White Geoff Murphy Hdcp - $130k, 1600m, BM78 hdcp fillies/mares

13. Caulfield R7 - 5.35pm - Elvis Thurgood Galilee Series Final (LR) - $200k, 2400m, 3yos SW+Ps

14. Caulfield R8 - 6.15pm - Sportsbet Victoria Hdcp (Gr3) - $200k, 1400m, hdcp

15. Caulfield R9 - 6.55pm - Tobin Brothers Celebrating Lives Easter Cup (Gr3) - $200k, 2000m, hdcp

 

OLD MATE^ (2nd) vs SHOWTIME (3rd)

Richie (5/8-2707.00/2769.20) v Maria (5/8-2039.00/2791.20)

Black Caviar (7/6-3001.20/2880.00) v Craig (9/4-2485.80/1652.20)

Jack (8/5-3475.00/2471.20) v Punter Pete (5/8-3129.00/3669.20)

PJ (9/4-2839.40/2570.40) v Paul (7/6-3315.00/2530.80)

Rex (7/6-2946.60/2697.00) v Blind Squirrel (9/4-3205.60/2401.40)

 

KAOS (1st) vs MAGIC (7th)

Ray (7/6-3658.00/3171.40) v Sharne (6/7-3052.20/2761.00)

Sasha (10/3-3194.60/2449.00) v Jamison (7/6-2410.00/2555.00)

Stevie N (8/5-2874.40/2472.40) v Anita (6/7-3421.20/3025.80)

Ziggy (7/6-2776.60/2409.80) v Heather (5/6-2691.00/2122.60)

Midnight Caller (8/5-3936.00/3147.00) v Porky (3/4-1567.80/1590.00)

 

SEAGULLS (5th) vs REAPERS^ (6th)

Maurice (4/9-2844.80/3082.40) v Ian (5/8-2785.80/2116.60)

Steve P (7/6-3326.20/3384.60) v Secret Squirrel (5/8-2661.00/3001.20)

Graeme (4/9-2630.20/3051.00) v Tassie Tiger (6/7-2769.40/2785.00)

Rees (6/7-3310.20/4019.40) v Tonka (6/7-2215.00/2899.20)

Pete (7/6-2542.80/2956.60) v Hesi (5/8-2783.20/2494.60)

STYX* (4th) vs MAX FACTORY (8th)

Howie (9/4-2593.00/2444.40) v Lightning Blue (4/9-2284.00/3407.80)

Gordy (6/7-3373.00/2904.60) v Rob (6/7-2567.40/3646.80)

Our Maizcay (9/4-3478.80/2976.40) v Gee (7/6-2606.60/2577.80)

Smiler (6/7-3617.40/3581.00) v Max (6/7-2249.20/2564.40)

Robert (5/8-2457.40/3626.40) v Barb (5/8-2364.40/3471.80)

 

THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN

3936.00 Midnight Caller (Kaos) (8/5)

3658.00 Ray (Kaos) (7/6)

3617.40 Smiler (Styx) (6/7)

3478.80 Our Maizcay (Styx) (9/4)

3475.00 Jack (Old Mate) (8/5)

3421.20 Anita (Magic) (6/7)

3373.00 Gordy (Styx) (6/7)

 

THE SERENDIPITOUS SIX (those with the least $$ scored against them)

Sasha (10/3-2449.00)(Kaos)

Howie (9/4-2444.40) (Styx)

Ziggy (7/6-2409.80) (Kaos)

Blind Squirrel (9/4-2401.40) (Showtime)

Ian (5/8-2116.60) (Reapers)

Craig (9/4-1652.20) (Showtime)

 

THE UNFORTUNATE FIVE (those with the most $$ scored against them)

Smiler (6/7-3581.00) (Styx)

Robert (5/8-3626.40) (Styx)

Rob (6/7-3646.80) (Max Factory)

Punter Pete (5/8-3669.20) (Showtime)

Rees (6/7-4019.40) (Seagulls)

 

TABLE AFTER ROUND 13

1st 40 points Kaos* $16,453.40

2nd 33 points Old Mate* $15,005.80

3rd 33 points Showtime^* $14,173.40

4th 31 points Styx $15,514.40

------------finals qualification mark-----------------

5th 28 points Seagulls^* $14,655.00

6th 27 points Reapers* $13,315.60

7th 26 points Magic^* $14,397.40

----- above this line still in Finals contention------------

8th 12 points Max Factory*^ $12,069.00

* Joker play

^ Triple Joker play

 

FINAL ROUND EXTRAPOLATIONS

1st KAOS

Highest possible finish: 1st - Minor Premiership Champions. Can only be denied by Old Mate or The Reapers with successful Triple Joker plays.

Lowest possible finish: 4th (qualify) if they fail to score a point and Old Mate and The Reapers complete successful Triple Joker plays and overtake Kaos plus Styx score a maximum points Joker play for a 10 point return.

 

2nd OLD MATE (Triple Joker play)

Highest possible finish: 1st - Minor Premiership Champions. A potential 15 points max available from a successful maximum Triple Joker play against Showtime could see them run down Kaos even if Kaos win 5-zip and take a bonus point

Lowest possible finish: 5th (miss Finals) if they fail to score (or suffer a 1 point deduction) and are beaten by Showtime and run down any two of Styx, Seagulls or The Reapers

 

3rd SHOWTIME

Highest possible finish: 2nd (qualify) if they defeat Old Mate and fail to be caught by Styx, Seagulls or The Reapers

Lowest possible finish: 6th (miss Finals) if beaten without points by Old Mate and run down by Styx, Reapers and Seagulls (who would need a 5 point win)

 

4th STYX (Regular Joker play)

Highest possible finish: 1st - Minor Premiership Champions.Would need Max Factory to beat and leave Kaos pointless, Old Mate to take no more than 2 points (x 3 equals 6 points) against Showtime and The Reapers to score no more than 4 points (x 3 equals 12 points) against The Seagulls

Lowest possible finish: 7th (miss Finals) if they lose without scoring a point, Seagulls score at least 4 points beating The Reapers but The Reapers take two bonus points (x 3 equals 6 points) in defeat and Magic beat Kaos 5-zip with a team profit and a much superior aggregate to Styx

 

5th SEAGULLS

Highest possible finish: 3rd (qualify) if they win 5-zip against The Reapers with a team profit and either Showtime or Old Mate (who could suffer a one point deduction) lose without scoring plus Styx lose and fail to score a point.

Lowest possible finish: 7th (miss Finals) if they lose against The Reapers without scoring a point and Magic take 3 points against Kaos or 2 points and score $258 more on aggregate than the Gulls.

 

6th REAPERS (Triple Joker play)

Highest possible finish: 1st - Minor Premiership Champions. Need a 5-zip win over the Seagulls with team profit and hope Kaos lose and take no more than 1 bonus point and also that Old Mate take no more than 2 points (x 3 equals 6 points) against Showtime

Lowest possible finish: 7th (miss Finals) if they fail to take a point against The Seagulls and Magic take 1 point or more against Kaos, or suffer a 1 point deduction despite Magic failing to score a point !

 

7th MAGIC

Highest possible finish: 4th (qualify) - Need to win 5-zip and take a team profit against Kaos AND have The Reapers lose and take no more than 1 bonus point (x 3 equals 3 points) and The Seagulls win but take no bonus points.

Lowest possible finish: 7th (miss Finals) Fail to take a point against Kaos (and the Reapers manage to avoid a 1 point deduction) or beat Kaos without a bonus point, The Reapers score at least 1 point (x 3) and Seagulls lose without scoring a point AND still have a superior aggregate over Magic

 

8th MAX FACTORY

Highest/Lowest possible finish: 8th  - The party poopers ! They can play havoc with the chances of Styx by beating them and keeping them pointless leaving their opponents victims to the advances of The Reapers, The Seagulls or even Magic.

[Double R]

Race 1: 4,5.

Race 2: 1,6.

Race 3: 8,9.

Race 4: 8,9.

Race 5: 2,7. (Best Bet)

Race 6: 1,23.

Race 7: 1,9.

Race 8: 8,10.

Race 9: 7,18. (Best Bet)

Race10: 1,14.

Thanks.

[PWJ]

More than 100mm of rain has been predicted to hit Sydney ahead of day one of The Championships.

[Dancing Show]

10 hours ago, PWJ said:

More than 100mm of rain has been predicted to hit Sydney ahead of day one of The Championships.

Do you think we need back up races or good to go and see how it pans out?

[PWJ]

3 hours ago, Dancing Show said:

Do you think we need back up races or good to go and see how it pans out?

I think we will be good to go

[Sir Castleton]

Light steady rain here in Western Sydney with more rain forecast for tomorrow.

[PWJ]

35 minutes ago, Sir Castleton said:

Light steady rain here in Western Sydney with more rain forecast for tomorrow.

Thanks Roland. Lovely photo of you guys 👍

[Lightning Blue]

On 4/1/2024 at 10:02 AM, PWJ said:

SEAGULLS (5th) vs REAPERS^ (6th)

Maurice (4/9-2844.80/3082.40) v Ian (5/8-2785.80/2116.60)

Steve P (7/6-3326.20/3384.60) v Secret Squirrel (5/8-2661.00/3001.20)

Graeme (4/9-2630.20/3051.00) v Tassie Tiger (6/7-2769.40/2785.00)

Rees (6/7-3310.20/4019.40) v Tonka (6/7-2215.00/2899.20)

Pete (7/6-2542.80/2956.60) v Hesi (5/8-2783.20/2494.60)

Some Desparate battles tomorrow at PJ's as Teams need the Win to get into the Finals.

The five Reapers are awaiting the arrival of the swooping Seagulls . Will Hesi be ready ? 😉  Filming has already begun for the classic encounter 😁🎥

[Hesi]

Turn on your spell checker LB lol

[brown fox]

O.K. its the finals so play nice.

 

[pete]

Going to be some interesting picking strategies in our match. You'd think sticking to favourites wouldn't be enough. But then again...

[Hesi]

19 minutes ago, pete said:

Going to be some interesting picking strategies in our match. You'd think sticking to favourites wouldn't be enough. But then again...

We need 3-2 with an aggregate bonus or 4-1 to give us 9 points to be sure of making the finals.  A reasonable ask, but not excessive.

A 3-2 win without a bonus point to give us 6 points, which because of the Reapers lower aggregate as opposed to Old Mate and Showtime who face off, will be dicey and depend on Styx scoring no points (Reapers then 4th), or Oldmate losing a point, Reapers 3rd but 4th if Styx score just 1 point.

Fortunately there are 2 picks in each race to go fave/wide

Fascinating set of scenarios that the unique nature of this comp sets up again.

[Dancing Show]

49 minutes ago, brown fox said:

O.K. its the finals so play nice.

 

Is that guy on the back George Simon?  😄  Certainly looks like him 🙂

[pete]

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/atc-officials-optimistic-day-one-of-the-championships-will-proceed-despite-ominous-weather-forecast-of-heavy-rain-20240404

[Howard Atkinson]

Big day for team Styx, looking to cement a berth in the Finals after having been in or near the lead throughout the comp.
The wet weather that has descended upon Randwick brings Maxi's Factory lineup right into the frame tomorrow, with at least one prominent Sydney jockey
declaring that the races there will amount to nothing much more than a lottery. And when it's a lottery the risk is that the infamous word 'yeehah' will be not far behind. 😊

Good luck to my rival tomorrow,  Lightning Blue,  and to the rest of Maxi's mob. You've beaten us Styx once this campaign, and so I'm sure you will be going into this weekend's battle with a good degree of confidence.

These are the ones I'm pinning my faith on, in our Styx double-joker play :-

R1)   7-14
R2)   1-10      Best Bet NZ
R3)   2-9
R4)   3-8
R5)   6-7 
R6)   3-10
R7)   1-3        Best Bet Aus
R8)   1-11
R9)   2-7
R10) 3-7

Wishing the best of luck this very important match to my highly-skilled Styx team-mates Smiler, Gordy, Robert and Our Maizcay.
We've come this far in good shape . . . with a bit of luck we can go all the way. 🙂

Many thanks for this very fine comp, PJ.  Always highly entertaining, . . . a whole lot of fun.
 

[PWJ]

SUBSTITUTE RACES - Please read !

Given the 100m rain that has fallen in Sydney and the unlikelihood that the Doncaster meeting will be run midweek if postponed tomorrow, I have posted substitute races which will replace any races that are not run at Randwick. The sub races will run chronologically if Randwick is abandoned. I.E. If abandoned before 4.20pm then Caulfield races 5-9 will replace. If abandoned after 4.50pm the Caulfield races 6-9 will replace, etc. Captains be aware that ALL SELECTIONS MUST BE POSTED BEFORE THE REGULAR CLOSING TIME.

[Maximus]

Max for Maximum Factorium

R1          1,9

R2          7,11

R3          2,7

R4          2,7

R5          1,6 bb

R6          1,10

R7          9,10

R8          2,11

R9          2,19

R10       6,7 bb

MM

[PWJ]

3 minutes ago, Maximus said:

Max for Maximum Factorium

R1          1,9

R2          7,11

R3          2,7

R4          2,7

R5          1,6 bb

R6          1,10

R7          9,10

R8          2,11

R9          2,19

R10       6,7 bb

MM

Sub race selections needed also Max

[Howard Atkinson]

Sub-races for the Teflon Kid

Caulfield
R5 - 7x11
R6 - 8x12
R7 - 2x3        Best Bet Aus
R8 - 2x9
R9 - 2x3

I think if we go to Caulfield instead of Randwick then team Styx will win its match and win well.
If we stay at Randwick then it's anyone's game ! 🙂
Just my opinion. Watching with great interest.

Many thanks, PJ.

 

[pete]

39 minutes ago, Maximus said:

Max for Maximum Factorium

R1          1,9

R2          7,11

R3          2,7

R4          2,7

R5          1,6 bb

R6          1,10

R7          9,10

R8          2,11

R9          2,19

R10       6,7 bb

MM

Do you have difficulty with following instructions?

Asking for a friend.

[Stevie Nicks Off]

R1 1=7

R2 1=6

R3 8=9 BB

R4 1=9

R5 2=9

R6 1=12

R7 1=10 BB

R8 1=3

R9 2=18

R10 2=14

 

Extra

R5 7=11

R6 2=14

R7 1=3 BB

R8 1=4

R9 3=6

Good luck Anita

 

 

[Double R]

Sub-races.

Race 6: 7,8.

Race 7: 2,3.

Race 8: 1,3.

Race 9: 2,8.

Race10: 3,6. (Best Bet)

Thanks.

[Secret Squirrel]

Race 1        5, 7

Race 2        1, 6

Race 3        2, 8

Race 4        3, 5 BB

Race 5        7, 9

Race 6        1, 10

Race 7        1, 2

Race 8        1, 8

Race 9        2, 20

Race 10        2, 14 BB

Race 11        7, 8

Race 12        11, 12

Race 13        1, 2

Race 14        1, 9

Race 15        4, 6 BB

Thanks PJ, Good luck Steve P!😁

[Porky]

Race 1  13,14      

Race 2  3,7    

Race 3  2,6     

Race 4 3,9 (BB NZ)        

Race 5 5,8      

Race 6 1,4       

Race 7 5,10        

Race 8 1,8        

Race 9  5,19 (BB OZ)      

Race 10 1,7

Race 11 7,15  

Race 12 4,8        

Race 13 2,3 (BB OZ)       

Race 14 5,9      

Race 15 3,9.

 

Best of luck everyone...hope we can sneak in the back door with some "Magic"

       

[Steve P]

R1 - 2/7.

R2 - 9/10.

R3 - 1/9.

R4 - 3/5 BB.

R5 - 7/8.

R6 - 2/8.

R7 - 1/10.

R8 - 3/9.

R9 - 4/18.

R10 - 1/2 BB.

6 - 11/15.

7 - 2/12.

8 - 3/9.

9 - 4/5.

10 - 9/11 BB.

All The Best SS, Thanks PJ.