Covid-19 update

[Maximus]

31 minutes ago, Hesi said:

Not me, I'm surprised, as surprised as you.

If you Nats want to win the next election, get rid of Simon Bridges, hard going listening and watching him.

Someone mentioned Simon O'Connor.

Anyway, some balance please, we have very moderate Labour support on here, balanced out by Pete, and then the great thinkers like Mardi and Curious chime in and make us all think about what we say.  Compare that with the right wing fanaticism on the other 2 sites

Ted is still copy and past;ing every anti Ardern thing he can find, every day, and that is 2 years and 8 months after I started that thread

an email I have just sent to Simon

Your criticism today of the Govt’s decision to extend lockdown for 1 more week (only 2 business days) is pathetic

Failure to act??

 For goodness’s sake, surely the sensible comment to make would have been something along the lines of:

Tough call for any PM; we’ll only know later whether it was the best decision. I encourage all Kiwis to follow the rules and be sensible over the next 7 days.

And for what it’s worth, I have never voted Labour in my life, hate socialism with a passion, and want National to win the 2020 election.

And with Judith making a STUPID comment for the sake of a (funny) one-liner…you’ve got plenty of work to do!

Edited April 20, 2020 by Maximus

[Maximus]

disagree mate, public holidays like Anzac Day are days when a typical retail outlet (say, an ITM store) would be CLOSED for business anyway ...so lockdown or Level 3 no difference...they have to pay theIr staff yes . and have factored that into their prices! ...but the staff woulnt have been moving to and from the workplace ...THE PUBLIC AINT COMING IN AND GOING OUT.., more important, the 3 day weekend gives the Govt and Health Dept in particular uninterrupted time to get their systems/processes in place nationwide

[Globederby19]

13 minutes ago, barryb said:

as nuts whom believe in religion.

Ahh, just as i thought , Godless. What fairy tale do you put your faith in Mr Dawkins. 

And just as I was starting to believe you were intelligent. Ahh well thats my bubble burst. 

And no I am not a Labour supporter, never have been an never will.

[mardigras]

Having seen some NZ v Ireland info elsewhere. It's important to reflect that we have some advantages over them, but in saying that, they are an island (even if shared with NI), they are smaller than NZ, and there urban density is greater than ours. And I think density is a key factor. But it does make interesting reading. This chart is for cases from the date the country(s) had 100 confirmed cases.

If you look at where Ireland are at now, they list 294 cases as being critical (I guess that may be hospitalised). The death chart is not worth showing given we only have the 12 deaths and only reached 10 cases recently. Ireland reached 10 deaths 24 days ago. And now have 610. 

 

[Globederby19]

1 minute ago, Globederby19 said:

Ahh, just as i thought , Godless. What fairy tale do you put your faith in Mr Dawkins. 

And just as I was starting to believe you were intelligent. Ahh well thats my bubble burst. 

And no I am not a Labour supporter, never have been an never will.

And as an addenda to that we will not start Theological debates on here. 

[mardigras]

Additionally, whilst Dublin has greater density, only 50% of their cases are Dublin. They also report that 63% of their cases are community transmission.

[mardigras]

2 minutes ago, barryb said:

Incredible the number of infections they have.

Is the infection rate similar across the UK or is it mainly confined to London?

Here is their breakdown. London has a lot but still a fair spread.

[mardigras]

And if anyone wants to question the value of lock down - Australia whilst not at NZ levels, has this set of cases compared to Ireland. You form your own opinion.

Australia reached 100 cases, 4 days before Ireland.

Edited April 20, 2020 by mardigras

[Hesi]

30 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Having seen some NZ v Ireland info elsewhere. It's important to reflect that we have some advantages over them, but in saying that, they are an island (even if shared with NI), they are smaller than NZ, and there urban density is greater than ours. And I think density is a key factor. But it does make interesting reading. This chart is for cases from the date the country(s) had 100 confirmed cases.

If you look at where Ireland are at now, they list 294 cases as being critical (I guess that may be hospitalised). The death chart is not worth showing given we only have the 12 deaths and only reached 10 cases recently. Ireland reached 10 deaths 24 days ago. And now have 610. 

 

Yes, I saw that data as well.  I haven't looked in detail into it, so any observations why

[mardigras]

Just now, Hesi said:

Yes, I saw that data as well.  I haven't looked in detail into it, so any observations why

Density. I suspect that countries with higher urban densities would likely need the earliest hard measures taken - not being slow to act. We probably acted reasonably well - and have a lower density - giving us plenty of advantage and why things look pretty good. Australian urban density is also not that high.

[mardigras]

I see this from the chief elsewhere.

"Note the deaths per million are well short of Spain and Italy."

Ireland are at their 24th day since reaching 10 deaths. They have 124 deaths per million

Italy at their 24th day since reaching 10 deaths were at 4,032 deaths - or 65 deaths per million

You can make stats say many things. But it's probably better to compare things at a similar situation imo.

[Hesi]

Well, I don't think anyone can justifiably grizzle at today's decision.

An extra 5 days only in lockdown, probably wary of the long weekend coming up.

400-500,000 people back to work on Tuesday

A very strong indication of 2 weeks at Level 3, then back to Level 2.

They went totally on the Director General of Health's written recommendations.  I was interested to hear, that he has the power of veto over the Cabinet and Prime Minister.

Problem areas are still hospitality and tourism

If Racing don't use this as the prompt to clean up their act, then the signs for them are not good.  20 months after the Messara report, they are still mucking around in committees,while the industry is sucked dry by a top heavy administration.

Not sure how this will play out, with the books looking so bad at NZRB.  Surely if there has to be a bailout, the Government will put in the equivalent of a statutory manager, with a view to selling off the TAB, and a VERY slimmed down admin.

[Midnight Caller]

Density is definitely the  key word! Ireland is an interesting one,but I am putting their high counts down to alot of people moving through Ireland pre lockdown. Airports and ferry terminals. 

Question: Have Nz authorities been testing all deaths for C-19 in the last 4 weeks?

 

[mardigras]

Some think we are in more of a controlled 'state' than say Australia. In Victoria last Sunday, 91 fines were handed out at $1650 each for breaches of the lockdown. Reports in NZ state 294 'prosecutions' in a little over the first 3 weeks of lockdown. Does anyone know what the fine is for such a breach in NZ?

[Maximus]

probably a slap on the hand with a wet bus ticket (say $120) given to an unemployed  dumb-arse teenager in an unregistered vehicle with no WOF

[Midnight Caller]

On 4/20/2020 at 10:21 AM, Midnight Caller said:

Density is definitely the  key word! Ireland is an interesting one,but I am putting their high counts down to alot of people moving through Ireland pre lockdown. Airports and ferry terminals. 

Question: Have Nz authorities been testing all deaths for C-19 in the last 4 weeks?

 

Anyone  have an answer here?

[pete]

53 minutes ago, barryb said:

Did you all read about Dr O'Sullivan in Kaitaia, the controversial one whom always has a lot to say. Mostly positive I might add.

Only 2 weeks ago he was getting stuck into the locals for breaching and being downtown etc, well he got bloody snapped kayaking at the weekend.

Another classic case of do as I say and not as I do.

 

Two things about that.

Yes, he was a hypocrite.

On the other hand, stopping people going kayaking is sheer lunacy in the first place.

Someday very soon the general populace will wake up and realise we're the victims of a giant overreaction.

The last sentence is based on hope, not on any concrete evidence.

[pete]

Just looking at the history of this thread and it's really refreshing that so many views have been expressed on here without any hint of rancour or playing the man/woman/person.

You should all be proud of yourselves in your ability to discuss this issue in an intelligent and cultured manner.

[pete]

Just now, barryb said:

Don’t disagree Pete, but shit how thick can a guy be.

Hes a role model and was NZer of the yr not that long ago, what a dumb prick.

Yeah agree. Not so long ago he was being touted as the next leader of the Maori Party.

However I still believe he's doing a good job for his whanau in the north.

[Hesi]

On the way back from Greenlane this avo, outside Cornwall Park on the way down to the motorway, major checkpoint, about 50 cops stopping every car wanting to know why they were out.  Maybe 10 pulled to one side being ticketed

[pete]

13 minutes ago, Hesi said:

On the way back from Greenlane this avo, outside Cornwall Park on the way down to the motorway, major checkpoint, about 50 cops stopping every car wanting to know why they were out.  Maybe 10 pulled to one side being ticketed

So they do it four weeks into a lockdown when there appears to be no community transmission? And when there appeared to a risk in the first week or so there wasn't a cop to be seen.

Serious problems here. The crackdown now is out of all proportion to the risk.

Welcome to East Germany 2020.

 

 

[Hesi]

10 hours ago, pete said:

So they do it four weeks into a lockdown when there appears to be no community transmission? And when there appeared to a risk in the first week or so there wasn't a cop to be seen.

Serious problems here. The crackdown now is out of all proportion to the risk.

Welcome to East Germany 2020.

 

 

Perhaps they had an inkling that a lot of the well healed folk in Epsom might be heading away  early to the bach for the  long weekend  thinking the law didn't  apply  to them

[Hesi]

11 hours ago, pete said:

Just looking at the history of this thread and it's really refreshing that so many views have been expressed on here without any hint of rancour or playing the man/woman/person.

You should all be proud of yourselves in your ability to discuss this issue in an intelligent and cultured manner.

Good post Pete

[mardigras]

11 hours ago, pete said:

Someday very soon the general populace will wake up and realise we're the victims of a giant overreaction.

The last sentence is based on hope, not on any concrete evidence.

Whilst there has been plenty of potential scaremongering, for me, I'd be more inclined to at least lean towards the modelling, than lean away from it. I know stats and models can say all sorts and people read different things into them. But here is my take.

This is the cases chart for 5 countries. Day 0 is 100 cases for the country. The vertical bars for NZ and Australia are (the start of lockdown + 7 days). The 5 countries were tracking pretty much the same prior to those lock downs. But the period from 7 days+ after lockdown seems remarkable similar for both countries.

Three of those countries have done a lot less. Ireland only just banned gatherings of 5000+ people two days ago. Mexico thought the whole thing was going to amount to nothing (and it might in relative terms - they are a large population). Sweden has been under self rule of sorts. And Sweden, with limited changes, has had unemployment rise a lot in the last month - even without lockdown.

And here the same countries death charts. Day 0 is 10 deaths for the country. NZ has so little data because they were already in lockdown before reaching 10 deaths, and Australia were in lockdown 2 days after reaching 10 deaths. Australia, Mexico and Sweden in those very early days, were all tracking the same. I expect the modelling was a better indication of what would occur than looking at what has happened to suggest things were going to be easily managed. Maybe they overstated things, maybe not. 

In a place like New York with high density - 1 in 1000 people are already deceased (0.1% of their population) already. And the death rate from 3 weeks in the USA is already double the typical annual flu deaths of the USA.

We were not likely to reach such levels, but I'd have more faith in the models that things would be a lot worse than they are otherwise.

My view has always been that whilst lockdown carries a number of potential side effects, one of the side effects of the impact to the economy, is largely a false one and is a form of scaremongering in itself. In a place like NZ which revolves around tourism, we were always going to be massively impacted, lock down or no lockdown. Even if borders were open. No one was going to be coming here. And fear was always going to play a part in the economy of the country.

But of course, you can't stay in lock down for ever.

We shouldn't be alarmed and try and scare people. But I don't know if complacency is a good thing either. Maybe it was never going to be as bas as some say, not as good as some suggest. Somewhere in the middle maybe?

[Hesi]

And talking about scaremongering in the press and a certain other channel that they are putting the future health of NZ'ers in jeopardy by cancelling elective surgery.....well they are not

Urgent and semi-urgent continuing, and starting to feed through non-urgent stuff

I had semi-urgent eye surgery during level 4 lockdown

By the way, if anyone has such like planned and is worried, don't.   The most painful thing was when they pulled off the tape that was used to hold my head still