mardigras Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Hesi said: The health effects in NZ have been almost a non event Very fortunate I thought Probably a better outcome than expected health wise. Economically, we're in better shape now (and forecast) than I had expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Would John Key have handled the situation any differently? Both Ardern and Key are great communicators, but would either have put, the now apparent false ideal of economic health over the medical health of its people. Woe betide, a PM that presided over the death of even 1000 Covid casualties Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hesi said: Would John Key have handled the situation any differently? Both Ardern and Key are great communicators, but would either have put, the now apparent false ideal of economic health over the medical health of its people. Woe tide, a PM that presided over the death of even 1000 Covid casualties I'd expect politicians to take advice from experts they believe they can trust on impacts across the board, not just the health side. That would straight away exclude the likes of Simon Thornley of course. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Aus would have had a similar group of trusted expects, yet took the less stringent lockdown Sweden similar Looks like the 'experts', do not concur Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Hesi said: Aus would have had a similar group of trusted expects, yet took the less stringent lockdown Sweden similar Looks like the 'experts', do not concur I think they largely concur. Most of the information referred to in media is about the health impacts. Very few have been about the economic impacts of the virus in isolation. The poor advice is the advice that doesn't consider the economic impact properly, only considering the health impacts, whilst at the same time believing the economic impacts of lockdowns would be massively beyond what would have occurred anyway. The problems being seen by some countries seem to correlate quite strongly with administration that has a high degree of unilateral decision making. Sweden, USA, Brazil, Belarus spring to mind. Decision making based largely on an individuals viewpoint, Edited July 13, 2020 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, mardigras said: I think they largely concur. Most of the information referred to in media is about the health impacts. Very few have been about the economic impacts of the virus in isolation. The poor advice is the advice that doesn't consider the economic impact properly, only considering the health impacts, whilst at the same time believing the economic impacts of lockdowns would be massively beyond what would have occurred anyway. The problems being seen by some countries seem to correlate quite strongly with administration that has a high degree of unilateral decision making. Sweden, USA, Brazil, Belarus spring to mind. Decision making based largely on an individuals viewpoint, Weren't accusations of that type of behaviour being levelled at Ardern and Bloomfield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 19 minutes ago, Hesi said: Weren't accusations of that type of behaviour being levelled at Ardern and Bloomfield I doubt it was the case. The decisions clearly had an economic understanding within them - which hasn't been the case in many countries - i.e. Sweden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 I think it is (or should be), pretty clear, NZ cannot re-enter a form of lockdown - irrespective of what happens from here. We must have used the last four months to have defined a strategy that does not require lockdown, to deal with any cases as they arise. They have done the hard work, now they just need to implement the strategy for dealing with new cases, armed with the four months of outcomes that have given them such a head start, both in health and economic metrics. As I said right at the beginning, you only get one chance at this. They've had that chance. Now is the time to implement the non-lockdown strategy that deals with what follows. If Adern decides there is a need for a further lockdown to a large portion of the country, I think the election will be over for her. The policy has worked fine, but for the lockdown, the country wasn't really losing anything economically. From now, they will if they go back. So any people arguing that further lockdowns is a bad idea, I 100% agree with them. Just as I 100% agree that the first lockdown was the best strategy. And the results I have seen show that. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 yes, the news last week about being prepared for local/regional lockdowns if/when necessary to contain community transmission makes it clear to me that a national lockdown is untenable. The first lockdown bought us the time to prepare hospital services incl ICU wards for any sharp increase in severe cases; plus distribution (to the right places) of PPE and testing and Contact Tracing systems. The biggest threat to Ardern's lot getting another term is Covid rearing its ugly head here via community transmission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, Maximus said: The biggest threat to Ardern's lot getting another term is Covid rearing its ugly head here via community transmission. Disagree Maxi, don't forget the Churchill syndrome If Collins can get thru all this current nonsense, then she may be able to win back traditional support to get back to low to mid 40's ACT will get the electorate seat, and if it can carve out 4-5 %, then it is a close run thing Nats will be full on assault that they can run the policies better to stimulate economic recovery Collins strength, maybe her weakness, too autocratic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 2 hours ago, Hesi said: Disagree Maxi, don't forget the Churchill syndrome If Collins can get thru all this current nonsense, then she may be able to win back traditional support to get back to low to mid 40's ACT will get the electorate seat, and if it can carve out 4-5 %, then it is a close run thing Nats will be full on assault that they can run the policies better to stimulate economic recovery Collins strength, maybe her weakness, too autocratic twas Maxi wot reminded us of Churchill syndrome...what I am saying is Ardern has all the cards, with a limitless 'pot of gold' to dispense in all directions and her main opponents in disarray; any significant community transmission of Covid pre-election is a big problem for Labour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 25 minutes ago, Maximus said: twas Maxi wot reminded us of Churchill syndrome...what I am saying is Ardern has all the cards, with a limitless 'pot of gold' to dispense in all directions and her main opponents in disarray; any significant community transmission of Covid pre-election is a big problem for Labour. So it was, but of course I already knew that Any significant community transmission, would be a crushing psychological blow for the entire country, and may just be too much for some, in view of the sacrifices so many have made in a hard lockdown. I sincerely believe Ardern looks at it this way, and not an election strategy, but then I've been called naive before Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Covid IS Ardern's election strategy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 On 7/13/2020 at 1:41 PM, mardigras said: Probably a better outcome than expected health wise. Economically, we're in better shape now (and forecast) than I had expected. wait til the extended wage subsidy finishes (soon)... a lot of (esp) Ham-Auks with big mortgages and low equity will be in deep doo-doo if they cant find replacement income Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Maximus said: wait til the extended wage subsidy finishes (soon)... a lot of (esp) Ham-Auks with big mortgages and low equity will be in deep doo-doo if they cant find replacement income I was expecting more than a 20% drop in GDP and unemployment well in excess of 15%. I was expecting that if we had not gone into lockdown originally. Anything better than that will be a good result for me, and even when the wage subsidies end, I don't see that happening in my current crystal ball. Edited July 21, 2020 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, Maximus said: . a lot of (esp) Ham-Auks with big mortgages and low equity will be in deep doo-doo if they cant find replacement income I'd suggest that is inevitable for some, and always was regardless of any wage subsidies. Times are difficult and some are going to be unable to see things through in their current format. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 20 minutes ago, Maximus said: Covid IS Ardern's election strategy! You're an incurable cynic, you should have been a political journo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 26 minutes ago, mardigras said: I was expecting more than a 20% drop in GDP and unemployment well in excess of 15%. I was expecting that if we had not gone into lockdown originally. Anything better than that will be a good result for me, and even when the wage subsidies end, I don't see that happening in my current crystal ball. The so called experts keep getting there predictions wrong. It was predicted that house prices would fall substantially, yet the data out about 3 weeks ago showed a 1% decline across NZ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Hesi said: The so called experts keep getting there predictions wrong. It was predicted that house prices would fall substantially, yet the data out about 3 weeks ago showed a 1% decline across NZ Lads lads lads...you seem to think that the most severe consequences of Covid economically in NZ should have happened already! Cashinda's Gummit is pumping out the $$$ like there's no tomorrow, cos there won't be (for them) unless they can stave off high unemployment figures pre-election. Hence the wage subsidy extension which coincindetally just happens to finish in September. Give it another 6-12 months, when the drop-off in immigration affects the housing market; banks start to call in untenable mortgages; crime rate goes up etc etc. What bothers me is that this 'transformational Gummit' in its first three years has transformed nothing of any consequence - why didn't they borrow some of these billions - for health, education and welfare and infrastructure in 2018 ? Now they just chuck it out like confetti, saying we're 'so much better off in terms of Govt debt' than the UK etc ..true, but unlike them, we're already up to our eyeballs in private household debt ...and you cant have both without serious consequences. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 2 hours ago, Hesi said: You're an incurable cynic, you should have been a political journo I am the only Mustelid to have interviewed Rob Muldoon and David Lange - and survived. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 2 hours ago, Hesi said: You're an incurable cynic, you should have been a political journo Cynic or realist? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 28 minutes ago, Maximus said: Lads lads lads...you seem to think that the most severe consequences of Covid economically in NZ should have happened already! Cashinda's Gummit is pumping out the $$$ like there's no tomorrow, cos there won't be (for them) unless they can stave off high unemployment figures pre-election. Hence the wage subsidy extension which coincindetally just happens to finish in September. Give it another 6-12 months, when the drop-off in immigration affects the housing market; banks start to call in untenable mortgages; crime rate goes up etc etc. What bothers me is that this 'transformational Gummit' in its first three years has transformed nothing of any consequence - why didn't they borrow some of these billions - for health, education and welfare and infrastructure in 2018 ? Now they just chuck it out like confetti, saying we're 'so much better off in terms of Govt debt' than the UK etc ..true, but unlike them, we're already up to our eyeballs in private household debt ...and you cant have both without serious consequences. Private debt NZ 94% of GDP UK 87% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 20 minutes ago, Maximus said: Lads lads lads...you seem to think that the most severe consequences of Covid economically in NZ should have happened already! Cashinda's Gummit is pumping out the $$$ like there's no tomorrow, cos there won't be (for them) unless they can stave off high unemployment figures pre-election. Hence the wage subsidy extension which coincindetally just happens to finish in September. Give it another 6-12 months, when the drop-off in immigration affects the housing market; banks start to call in untenable mortgages; crime rate goes up etc etc. What bothers me is that this 'transformational Gummit' in its first three years has transformed nothing of any consequence - why didn't they borrow some of these billions - for health, education and welfare and infrastructure in 2018 ? Now they just chuck it out like confetti, saying we're 'so much better off in terms of Govt debt' than the UK etc ..true, but unlike them, we're already up to our eyeballs in private household debt ...and you cant have both without serious consequences. I don't think the worst should have happened yet, not by a long way. But the future is looking a lot better than I would have expected. I was expecting half a million on the unemployment benefit (work ready). I don't think that will happen this year or anytime in the next few years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 6 hours ago, pete said: Cynic or realist? Cynical realist, Pete! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, Hesi said: Private debt NZ 94% of GDP UK 87% got the stats for other 'Western' countries USA, Canada, France, Germany,others? Edited July 21, 2020 by Maximus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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