mardigras Posted September 26, 2019 Author Share Posted September 26, 2019 (edited) At this stage Aidan has put Southern France, Il Paradiso, Hunting Horn, Magic Wand and Mohawk into quarantine. Edited September 26, 2019 by mardigras 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 27, 2019 Author Share Posted September 27, 2019 Looks like no Buckhurst this year VC. Here is what Racing.com lists as the horses to have entered quarantine. From a cups perspective, not sure if Norway is coming, but is highly unlikely to make cup field. Likely have to run and win the Lexus and back up into the cup. Seems they must have changed some things as there are more than 8 horses supposedly booked for the second shipment. The full list of horses (in order of international ratings) that have entered quarantine overnight and are booked on the second European shipment is as follows: Ten Sovereigns (121) - Aidan O'Brien Cross Counter (118) - Charlie Appleby Master Of Reality (118) - Joseph O'Brien Ispolini (115) - Charlie Appleby Il Paradiso (115) - Aidan O'Brien Hunting Horn (115) - Aidan O'Brien Marmelo (114) - Hughie Morrison Magic Wand (114) - Aidan O'Brien Southern France (113) - Ciaron Maher and David Eustace Twilight Payment (113) - Joseph O'Brien Norway (113) - Aidan O'Brien Latrobe (112) - Joseph O'Brien Mohawk (112) - Aidan O'Brien D'bai (111) - Charlie Appleby Downdraft (110) - Joseph O'Brien Walton Street* (107) - Charlie Appleby Setting Sail* (106) - Charlie Appleby 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 I think they’re going to give Buckhurst another 12 months like they did with Latrobe He’s done well in his first prep I’m sure he will be high up on my list next year No Kew Gardens either it’s going to be an interesting next 4-5 weeks Ten Sovereign’s has a travel companion called National Guard Outside of the Cup this horse called Royal Meeting looks promising Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 27, 2019 Author Share Posted September 27, 2019 I had thought Kew Gardens might come. Il Paradiso could be OK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 (edited) Yeah Il Paradiso a bit of class on his side A shame Buckhurst isn’t coming I was in search for that next Rekindling Cross Counter type he wasn’t far behind those two on time form ratings I think he had a time form rating of 117 for his last two starts.........taking a line through last start I guess it’s a shame Norway 🇳🇴 isn’t coming either probably order of entry was the telling factor Buckhurst was never a serious betting proposition until he moved into quarantine ah well next year!!! Edited September 27, 2019 by VC! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 27, 2019 Author Share Posted September 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, VC! said: Yeah Il Paradiso a bit of class on his side A shame Buckhurst isn’t coming I was in search for that next Rekindling Cross Counter type he wasn’t far behind those two on time form ratings I think he had a time form rating of 117 for his last two starts.........taking a line through last start I guess it’s a shame Norway 🇳🇴 isn’t coming either probably order of entry was the telling factor Norway in quarantine. Some say he is going to America to race next. Yes, Order of Entry - he is well down. The Euros don't get rehandicapped generally as they tend to race in Group/Listed outside of the Ebor in the lead up - to get the qualification. They don't therefore earn penalties post the release of weights, such as when Norway won the G3. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 30, 2019 Author Share Posted September 30, 2019 On 9/27/2019 at 2:53 PM, mardigras said: Norway in quarantine. Some say he is going to America to race next. Norway nominated for the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont on Oct 5. Having a bob each way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Yeahh saw that. Still might go on to Melbourne? Have to say that I really appreciate this thread mardi. Has given me a new perspective on the MC and the global lead up shenanigans. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 30, 2019 Author Share Posted September 30, 2019 Kenedna has gone for a spell. In the Caulfield Cup, this horse accounted for 1/3 of all current betting on betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 22 minutes ago, mardigras said: Kenedna has gone for a spell. In the Caulfield Cup, this horse accounted for 1/3 of all current betting on betfair. Cripes that has to be megabucks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 30, 2019 Author Share Posted September 30, 2019 Just now, curious said: Cripes that has to be megabucks! Not much. Caufield Cup doesn't get much interest. So about $4k of $11k. But given no volume, people just wanted to back her and what was pretty low odds as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 30, 2019 Author Share Posted September 30, 2019 (edited) Duretto injured and out of spring also, as is Mosh Music Edited September 30, 2019 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 1, 2019 Author Share Posted October 1, 2019 On 9/30/2019 at 4:51 PM, mardigras said: Norway nominated for the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont on Oct 5. Having a bob each way? As expected, did not pay up today. 79 remain paid up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 The lead ups to the cups has intensified. And nothing against those that have backed either Finche or Surprise Baby, but I will be very surprised if either win the Melbourne Cup. They don't have the running style in my view. Happy to be shown to be wrong on this so good luck to them. Of the ones to be seen so far in Oz, I'd easily prefer Steel Prince to Surprise Baby. Surprise Baby beat a pretty average bunch and had little to no turn of foot. I don't know if I have seen a Melbourne Cup winner in the last 20 years that doesn't have the ability to sprint somewhere in the last 3f. I'm not sure either Finche or Surprise Baby can do that. And I certainly wouldn't want a bar of 10-12s. At this stage, I think a horse that hasn't run here yet will be what I back. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 It's a great story though with Surprise Baby, the all Australian battler, now guaranteed a start, the press will have a field day Great for the race interest, if you are Australian, but made favourite?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, Hesi said: It's a great story though with Surprise Baby, the all Australian battler, now guaranteed a start, the press will have a field day Great for the race interest, if you are Australian, but made favourite?? Was always likely to make the field anyway. Australasian bred horses make the field. Prince Of Penzance won it not long ago. I think the hype is all due to the person who put $10k on him to win the cup during the week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 7, 2019 Author Share Posted October 7, 2019 Frankie to ride Master of Reality. Another of Williams noms was pulled out this morning - King of Leogrance - going for a spell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 8, 2019 Author Share Posted October 8, 2019 I wouldn't necessarily agree with these people, but on this one I do. The market has severely over-reacted (whether one of them wins or not). https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/surprise-baby-six-lengths-behind-prince-of-penzance-20191008-p52ypk.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 Finche was very good again. His staying profile suggested that he may not be suited by a slower run race that required a fast sprint home and there was an element of truth to that. He couldn’t match Kings Will Dream’s turn of foot between the 400m and 150m, but he didn’t lose much ground and was very fast and strong late, recording the 2nd best rating last 200m of the entire meeting. His 101.8 rating is virtually on par with his 102 first up and we know that he’ll be better suited over further and in a race with more genuine speed. If he can progress to the 104-105 level in his lead up runs to the Melbourne Cup then he will go into that race with 54kg as a serious winning chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 8, 2019 Author Share Posted October 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, VC! said: Finche was very good again. His staying profile suggested that he may not be suited by a slower run race that required a fast sprint home and there was an element of truth to that. He couldn’t match Kings Will Dream’s turn of foot between the 400m and 150m, but he didn’t lose much ground and was very fast and strong late, recording the 2nd best rating last 200m of the entire meeting. His 101.8 rating is virtually on par with his 102 first up and we know that he’ll be better suited over further and in a race with more genuine speed. If he can progress to the 104-105 level in his lead up runs to the Melbourne Cup then he will go into that race with 54kg as a serious winning chance. He was. But I think he is so dour, that worries me. The cups seem to be won by a horse that sprints and then maybe even stops. But the sprint wins them the race. As it did with Kings Will Dream on Saturday. He sprinted and that was enough. Makybe Diva did that in all three cup wins. Of course time will tell. And you've got decent odds on Finche so all the best. I think Finche is a better Caulfield Cup chance. He will be near them I expect at the bend and maybe able to grind the win if horses back in the field struggle to make ground. Not sure who might lead that but a soft lead and he might be too strong for them. He is certainly being backed at lower odds there than in the cup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 11 minutes ago, mardigras said: He was. But I think he is so dour, that worries me. The cups seem to be won by a horse that sprints and then maybe even stops. But the sprint wins them the race. As it did with Kings Will Dream on Saturday. He sprinted and that was enough. Makybe Diva did that in all three cup wins. Of course time will tell. And you've got decent odds on Finche so all the best. I think Finche is a better Caulfield Cup chance. He will be near them I expect at the bend and maybe able to grind the win if horses back in the field struggle to make ground. Not sure who might lead that but a soft lead and he might be too strong for them. He is certainly being backed at lower odds there than in the cup. I don’t disagree with what you’ve said The majority of Cup victors have shown a decent turn of foot and that’s what I genuinely look for when selecting and settling on my 5 selections I don’t rate Surprise Baby a winning chance the odds are ridiculous Finche 4 weeks out also under the odds Steel Prince great run last start and does possess a turn off foot 2 miles maybe a ?? Right now I’m at the crossroads as which others I lock away finding it difficult Mirage Dancer like you said with Finche I reckon Mirage Dancer is better suited to the Caulfield Cup The beautiful thing Mardi people need opinions and different views so we can secure whether it’s backing or laying decent or ridiculous odds and in the case of Surprise Baby it’s ridiculous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 8, 2019 Author Share Posted October 8, 2019 (edited) 13 minutes ago, VC! said: I don’t disagree with what you’ve said The majority of Cup victors have shown a decent turn of foot and that’s what I genuinely look for when selecting and settling on my 5 selections I don’t rate Surprise Baby a winning chance the odds are ridiculous Finche 4 weeks out also under the odds Steel Prince great run last start and does possess a turn off foot 2 miles maybe a ?? Right now I’m at the crossroads as which others I lock away finding it difficult Mirage Dancer like you said with Finche I reckon Mirage Dancer is better suited to the Caulfield Cup The beautiful thing Mardi people need opinions and different views so we can secure whether it’s backing or laying decent or ridiculous odds and in the case of Surprise Baby it’s ridiculous For sure VC!. And my post wasn't being negative, just sharing my opinion. I agree Mirage Dancer may be better suited to CC. Never been tried up to 2 miles, but who knows. Il Paradiso is apparently definitely coming over for the cup. So that is interesting. Edited October 8, 2019 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 12, 2019 Author Share Posted October 12, 2019 If yesterday's racing at Caulfield is anything to go on, the locals would be a little concerned. Some of the bigger names flew in yesterday. And with the likes of Cape Of Good Hope beating some of the local WFA stars, who knows what will unfold the next few weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 15, 2019 Author Share Posted October 15, 2019 Surprise, surprise, surprise. Torcedor pulled out of Melbourne Cup even before 2nd acceptance taken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 19, 2019 Author Share Posted October 19, 2019 Great Caulfield Cup I thought. Mer De Glace was devastating. Still pretty comfortable with my long range selection of Mirage Dancer. If runs the 2 mile out, I think can be right in it. Finche had a hard run being wide. Don't think he'll be fav come race day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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