Covid-19 update

[Hesi]

Perhaps they just need to scrap the NZRB/TAB all together, and just allow betting agencies to compete in NZ

[ngakonui grass]

BUNNINGS to close 7 stores in NZ.

[mardigras]

17 minutes ago, ngakonui grass said:

BUNNINGS to close 7 stores in NZ.

Some were closing well before Covid came along.

[Hesi]

Or were pretty marginal anyway

Bunnings is about to open a HUGE new store in Westgate(West Auckland sort of)

[curious]

On 5/11/2020 at 5:07 PM, Hesi said:

Bars delayed till Thursday May 21

Molly will have to delay his big wank of a party.

Actually I'm surprised, with his scant regard for the laws of the land in the Grace Millane case, breaching suppression orders, why the police didn't tell him where to stick his party, as quite a substantial amount of following rules and protocols is required......not his strong point

Sounds like there's some openings if you still want to go Hesi.

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/211-heather-du-plessis-allan-24837940/episode/leo-molloy-headquarters-to-go-ahead-62427964/?keyid[0]=Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive&keyid[1]=Leo Molloy%3A Headquarters to go ahead with private level 2 party&sc=podcast_widget

Covid 19 coronavirus: Headquarters bash to go ahead this weekend

12 May, 2020 5:49pm

3 minutes to read

A Viaduct bar owner is planning to hold a level 2 party with 100 of his friends during the first weekend of level 2.

Leo Molloy told Newstalk ZB's Heather Du Plessis-Allan that those attending the central Auckland bash were "friends of Headquarters and personal friends of mine".

Among those on the guest list are National's deputy leader Paula Bennett, former All Blacks coach Sir Graham Henry and Destiny Church's Brian and Hannah Tamaki, Auckland MP Nikki Kaye, Māori Party co-leader John Tamihere, band members from True Bliss and former MP Hone Harawira.

While cafes, schools, gyms, hairdressers, retail stores, restaurants, and other public spaces have been given the green light to reopen from Thursday, bars need to wait a further 10 days before they can reopen.

Gatherings have been capped at 10 people and no more than 100 people are allowed in venues at one time. All require physical distancing.

But Molloy says he's confident the party is within the rules and police appeared to be comfortable with his approach.

Guests will be temperature-checked at the door and required to supply their names, addresses and phone numbers.

A bouncer will patrol the dance floor ensuring partygoers stand 1m apart, kissing will be banned and police will do spot checks to make sure people follow the rules.

"We have created bubbles - we've spoken to some people who we consider to be key players and said, 'You create your own bubble, your maximum number is 10', which you're allowed to do now," he told Du Plessis-Allan.

"They'll have written directives on their tables and we have a DJ with a microphone, he'll be reminding people.

"Certainly the type of clientele that we attract, they tend to act with a modicum of decorum in a civilised fashion."

 

A police officer talks with Headquarters Bar owner Leo Molloy at the bar in the Auckland Viaduct. Photo / Dean Purcell

Earlier this month, The Herald reported that Molloy was liaising with Auckland Central Area Commander Inspector Gary Davey and the Liquor Licensing Agency to ensure the private bash can go ahead on May 15, which happened to be date of the restaurant's third birthday.

Molloy told Du Plessis-Allan that he had invited police to attend the celebration, but was told they would not attend.

"I expect we'll see them, but I don't think they're going to have any sort of a lingering presence here," he said.

And with each cancellation - at least 15 in the last two days - keen attendees popped up to replace them, Molloy said.

"For every person who has declined, we've had two more say, 'Can we come?' or 'Can we expand our bubble?' So I'll have no problem getting the numbers, trust me."

Police have been contacted for comment.

 

 

Edited May 12, 2020 by curious

[mardigras]

In case anyone thinks that New Zealand unemployment is worse than Sweden's (and other things), here are some facts relating to the two countries.

And although as Barry points out, there will be many more to come in NZ. But that is also the case in Sweden where they have also had worker support packages - although I'm not sure why they have needed those, given they haven't been in lockdown and some elsewhere have been claiming that it is the lockdown causing all this economic woe. Must be just unlucky.

[Hesi]

Well you don't have to be Einstein to pick the preferable option.

What I find disturbing, is the the way many, get so vociferous and fanatical in their damnation of the way it has been handled in NZ.  They have made their mind up, for whatever reason, and refuse to listen to well presented, fact based data.

If you pro rata up the deaths, we end up with 1600 for NZ.  Now I don't know whether that would have happened or not, but any Government that allowed that to happen in NZ, would have been taken to task so severely by it's people

 

[Maximus]

If you pro rata up the deaths, we end up with 1600 for NZ.  Now I don't know whether that would have happened or not, but any Government that allowed that to happen in NZ, would have been taken to task so severely by it's people

We also have to take into account other 'upsides': the effectiveness of the Level 4 lockdown minimised the impact of Covid getting into our hospitals and healthcare workforce; it also reduced the number of hospital admissions that normally occur from accidents, injuries and illness, esp among elderly. Crucial because we did not have the capacity in March to deal with a sudden surge in serious respiratory illnesses requiring IC beds, ventilators, PPE etc.

[mardigras]

I'm not sure why people think there is a big difference between what has happened here and what has happened in Australia. Look pretty similar to me. The numbers are minimally different.

[curious]

Yeahh.. just ran this this morning.

[Hesi]

Almost a million Australians out of work due to coronavirus; RBA tips economy to take 10pc hit

By business reporter Michael Janda

Posted 5 MayMay 2020, updated 6 MayMay 2020

[mardigras]

Well done Sweden. Top of the pops. Well, I'm not sure this is a 'prize' you want to boast about.

Sweden has the highest official Covid-19 deaths per million of all countries (per worldometers) for the last 24 hours. At 14.4 deaths per million.

Only around 70 (on a per capita basis)  for a country like NZ - in 24 hours. 

[Hesi]

Yes, those Worldometer stats do not make pretty reading for so many countries.

Imagine in NZ if we were waking to the news of 300 new cases, 70 deaths, there would be a dark pall cast over the country, yet here we are celebrating coming out of lockdown today, almost untouched healthwise by this pandemic.

Appropriately, it is budget day, so we will hear what the economic damage forecasts are, remembering that much of it must be attributed to the world situation, and that as long as we do not spike, we are well placed to take advantage of the situation in many areas

[Hesi]

Congratulations Curious, looks like you have orchestrated a major disappearing act.

I have to say, I get sick of reading about all the negativity that lockdown in NZ will bring or has brought

1.  Major economic doom, well guess what, look at the counties that did not lockdown to the same extent, same economic doom figs

2.  The number of mental health casualties because of the lockdown and the economic woes, guess what, no lock down, and still the same economic woes, so I suppose you have to assume the same mental health impact

3.  All the people that will die waiting for hospital care because of the lockdown, guess what, no lockdown, and using similar overseas data(let's say Sweden, but others), major impact on health resources with the deluge of Covid cases/deaths.  What's the difference, all those waiting for hospital care would not be able to receive it anyway because of the impact

There is one big difference, can you spot it, NZ doesn't have 1600 deaths from Covid!

[curious]

A note on 2.

Last Sunday ....

On Sunday, the Ministry of Health and the Mental Health Foundation issued statements that would’ve seemed weird to those not perennially online. “The Covid-19 response may have significant effects on people’s lives, but there is no truth to rumours circulating around suicide numbers. A significant increase in serious mental health issues or suicides is not inevitable if we all act now to support our mental wellbeing,” the Ministry of Health wrote. The Mental Health Foundation was more explicit. “There is no evidence New Zealand’s suicide rates have increased over lockdown. There is no truth to this rumour. It is irresponsible, dangerous and untrue,” it said.

[Hesi]

Yeah saw that, but why let a bit of fact get in the way of a sensational headline or redneck post......and I don't mean on here

[Hesi]

Well 53 billion is a lot of money

I'm no economist, but I can read human behaviour to a certain degree, and I think the forecasts of doom and gloom are overstated.

Many of the affected businesses will recover quickly even in Level 2 and it will be a shake up for many to be looking at new and more efficient ways of doing things....lateral thinking, and remembering that they have been given lots of help, in terms of subsidies, tax relief and loan deferments.  Maybe a lot more people working from home, could even mean less gridlock traffic in Auckland.

Hospitality will find a way, as we are seeing already, and those that don't, we have seen that 3,000 new restaurants/cafes start up each year anyway, so the regeneration rate is high.

I guess the real problem is tourism and the associated industries

Who knows, I'm just a mug punter

[mardigras]

It's a big injection of funds. From a debt perspective, people seem up in arms about the impacts to future generations. Which is natural, but the NZ government debt is still going to be low compared to most - and if the economy recovers well, that will become more important than the government debt impact imo. It's a bit like how to deal with Covid-19. It's a balancing act.

Personally, I think its too much on the social welfare side of things - but they are the ones in government (and they tend to lean a fair bit that way) and if people don't like what they're doing, there's an election coming up.

[Hesi]

20 minutes ago, mardigras said:

It's a big injection of funds. From a debt perspective, people seem up in arms about the impacts to future generations. Which is natural, but the NZ government debt is still going to be low compared to most - and if the economy recovers well, that will become more important than the government debt impact imo. It's a bit like how to deal with Covid-19. It's a balancing act.

Personally, I think its too much on the social welfare side of things - but they are the ones in government (and they tend to lean a fair bit that way) and if people don't like what they're doing, there's an election coming up.

Yes, bearing in mind all the other countries debt will also rise substantially

[mardigras]

I love reading about things like excess mortality.

Such as in a report I read which stated that between March 23 and April 24, Sweden's excess mortality (deaths) compared to baseline was 2469 extra deaths.

During that period, Sweden reported 2001 of their deaths to Covid-19. So of their deaths during that month, they had an extra 468 deaths more than 'expected', that were not classed as Covid-19.

Just going through a bad month I guess. So of al the deaths reported by Sweden to Covid-19, it would be a poor guess to suggest that many were going to die as part of their normal 'deaths'.

So with 3500 deaths (so far), it would be reasonable to suggest a very high percentage of them wouldn't have died at this point without Covid-19. If all of them were due to Covid-19 alone, that still leaves 19% increase in mortality for the month compared to 'normal'.

[Sandpiper]

The weaker economies in the eurozone are going to be pinned down very hard. NZs biggest issue isn't printing money so much as getting a half decent return for the investments.

[Hesi]

Things must be bad, Molly has gone to church

Headquarters Bar owner Leo Molloy is one of those to arrive. Tamaki was one of a number of guests who attended a level 2 gathering at Molloy's bar on Friday night.

[Hesi]

What's going on in Vietnam, 318 cases, no deaths, 95 mil people, hard lockdown, but economic forecasts don't look too gloomy

The civil libertarians would have had a field day here though, mandatory reporting by pharmacists of all sales of flu/cold medicines

https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/news/how-vietnam-sucessfully-contained-covid-19.html/

[Hesi]

Seems the widely rubbished, supposed Labour biased, leaked UMR poll was pretty much on the mark

Labour 55 Nats 29

Latest 'official' Reid poll

Labour 56.5 Nats 30.6

But will we see a rebound against Labour, Maxi as per the Churchill scenario you quoted

Latest poll cites 92% support for the lockdown, but will the economic downturn dampen that?

[Midnight Caller]

1 hour ago, Hesi said:

Seems the widely rubbished, supposed Labour biased, leaked UMR poll was pretty much on the mark

Labour 55 Nats 29

Latest 'official' Reid poll

Labour 56.5 Nats 30.6

But will we see a rebound against Labour, Maxi as per the Churchill scenario you quoted

Latest poll cites 92% support for the lockdown, but will the economic downturn dampen that?

Your probably right Hesi, run to the back of the tote! Cindy couldn't lose that lead surely! I'm  usually  wrong,but would not a true poll be taken from 1% of the population around the country? This possibly smells of 1000 people questioned on Mt Roskill high street 😁(sorry,couldn't resist😁).Come in Barry!