All things Covid and Political discussion .........Be Kind

[pete]

19 minutes ago, ngakonui grass said:

I see JAs husband has tweeted regarding Keys criticism of his wife.

He has shown himself once again to be a twat.

Can't recall Mrs Key.Mrs English,Mr Davis,Mrs Rowling  or any others PMs partner doing anything similar.

Caint stand the heat,get out of the kitchen.

Second rate minor celebrity. Agree with you 100%. 

[Hesi]

35 minutes ago, ngakonui grass said:

I see JAs husband has tweeted regarding Keys criticism of his wife.

He has shown himself once again to be a twat.

Can't recall Mrs Key.Mrs English,Mr Davis,Mrs Rowling  or any others PMs partner doing anything similar.

Caint stand the heat,get out of the kitchen.

Let me refresh your memory NG, Judith Collins husband's memes

[ngakonui grass]

4 minutes ago, Hesi said:

Let me refresh your memory NG, Judith Collins husband's memes

I don't think she was PM at the time and highly unlikely to be one in the future.

[craigos1]

1 hour ago, pete said:

Second rate minor celebrity. Agree with you 100%. 

Disagree with you 100%

Seems like a good bloke 👍 

[Hesi]

1 hour ago, ngakonui grass said:

I don't think she was PM at the time and highly unlikely to be one in the future.

Now you are talking

[pete]

10 minutes ago, craigos1 said:

Disagree with you 100%

Seems like a good bloke 👍 

Haha. Fair enough.

But he isn't, trust me.

[Globederby19]

On 9/29/2021 at 6:49 AM, mardigras said:

, not 3300.

Sorry Mardi that was a typo.. But the other stat is correct. Im over debating the issue frankly.

My son and his family managed to get an exemption to move back to Melbourne to the brand new home they bought and couldn't move to for the last month or so. They were given a sticker to place on the car, and it took some work to get through the process and finally get out of NSW. At the boarder crossing, no one checked , no one, in fact they drove on through without any trouble at all. They couldn't believe it. There  is a disconnect between the bureaucracy and reality.  

[mardigras]

4 minutes ago, Globederby19 said:

Sorry Mardi that was a typo.. But the other stat is correct. Im over debating the issue frankly.

I'm not sure why you bother debating it. You can choose to do whatever you want re the vaccine etc, but the view as to whether the vaccine has caused 1600 deaths in Australia is only correct in some people's opinion.

I've certainly not read a single article I would trust that mentions deaths in Australia due to the vaccine such as that. Reports on it are from people using information about something, but not actually relating the information correctly. Just the same way people do things like that in their punting. They think some attribute/factor relates to chance of a horse winning, only to find that it doesn't. 

If the best things those opposed to the vaccines can come up with, is to conjure up a story about deaths and relate them to people having been vaccinated recently prior, then it doesn't say a heck of a lot about their stance. They need to do a lot better than that. 

[Hesi]

He comes across very well, also the first person I can recall making the connection between Pfizer and Viagra

 

[Globederby19]

25 minutes ago, mardigras said:

f the best things those opposed to the vaccines can come up with, is to conjure up a story about

Its not a conjuring job but those opposed need some info to support the idea that the vaccine is not safe entirely. My view is that its not. I know you are ambivalent either way, so that's your personal decision .

To be honest, I nearly did change my mind, but I thought I dont really need the stress of being afraid of all those unvaccinated people.  

[mardigras]

1 hour ago, Globederby19 said:

Its not a conjuring job but those opposed need some info to support the idea that the vaccine is not safe entirely. My view is that its not. I know you are ambivalent either way, so that's your personal decision .

To be honest, I nearly did change my mind, but I thought I dont really need the stress of being afraid of all those unvaccinated people.  

I think it is known that the vaccine is not necessarily safe. I don't know of any that are.

I couldn't care who I come across, vaccinated or unvaccinated. Selfish, but I doubt they affect me. I didn't take the vaccine to not get Covid. But if vaccination passports come in, I'd rather have one.

[Hesi]

14 hours ago, mardigras said:

I think it is known that the vaccine is not necessarily safe. I don't know of any that are.

I couldn't care who I come across, vaccinated or unvaccinated. Selfish, but I doubt they affect me. I didn't take the vaccine to not get Covid. But if vaccination passports come in, I'd rather have one.

Though, as more in population data becomes available from countries that have reached high vaccination rates, the trend is towards higher case numbers as restrictions are eased and significantly lower hospitalisations, ICU and deaths among double vaccinated people.

So, as restrictions ease in NZ, it does become also a case of not wanting to catch Covid if you are not vaccinated, as your chances of hospitalisation, ICU or death are increased

[Hesi]

I note also the crime of sedition was removed from NZ's statute books in 2007.

Bit of a shame, as I am sure many would like to take a case out against Brian Tamaki

Sedition - conduct or speech inciting people to rebel against the authority of a state or monarch.

From Rosemary McLeod Stuff

Brian Tamaki is veering into the zone of false prophets as he urges his congregation of mostly Māori and Pasifika people not to wear masks or be vaccinated against Covid when they’re the very people, with the lowest Covid vaccination rates, whose health and lives are most at risk from it. It’s one thing for Tamaki and his wife to boast that they willingly risk their lives, but why tell others to?

[mardigras]

21 minutes ago, Hesi said:

So, as restrictions ease in NZ, it does become also a case of not wanting to catch Covid if you are not vaccinated, as your chances of hospitalisation, ICU or death are increased

Possibly - but that is from a population, and cannot necessarily be applied to an individual.

[mardigras]

9 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Possibly - but that is from a population, and cannot necessarily be applied to an individual.

Which from a racing perspective, is probably the most common mistake made by punters.

If 80% of horses win from barrier 1, that doesn't mean that the next horse to start from barrier 1 has an 80% chance (or even an improved chance). 

Population statistics cannot simply be directly applied to an individual.

[Hesi]

Because there are so many other factors to consider with a horse's performance

If you flip a coin though, regardless of what the previous flip was, the chances of heads are always 50%

[mardigras]

11 minutes ago, Hesi said:

If you flip a coin though, regardless of what the previous flip was, the chances of heads are always 50%

That's not a population statistic, that's a determination of chance. (a probability).

11 minutes ago, Hesi said:

Because there are so many other factors to consider with a horse's performance

Makes no difference. No population statistic has any value in assessing chance of a future event for a specific entity. The condition the statistic is about, maybe of value to a horse, or it may not. 

It's like '3yo after Christmas', 'blinkers on first time', '3kg claimers in the wet'.

Any if indeed the condition the statistic is based on, has a benefit to a specific horse, the statistic will have already removed the value component due to all the followers of the statistic.

Edited September 30, 2021 by mardigras

[mardigras]

1 hour ago, Hesi said:

If you flip a coin though, regardless of what the previous flip was, the chances of heads are always 50%

And this point is a good one. If the population statistic of flipping a coin (based on some sample), that resulted in an answer that 35% of the population was tails. That has no relationship with the chance of flipping a coin to a tail in the future.

Yet I would expect that the majority of punters use statistics to formulate their views around future success.

Here's a good population statistic. The population that use the same methods to determine the likely success of a future event, are collectively likely to receive a similar outcome from punting. As Barry and others have said, doing things the same as most others and you are likely to fail (as those most others do).

Edited September 30, 2021 by mardigras

[Hesi]

On 9/30/2021 at 7:20 PM, mardigras said:

I think it is known that the vaccine is not necessarily safe. I don't know of any that are.

I couldn't care who I come across, vaccinated or unvaccinated. Selfish, but I doubt they affect me. I didn't take the vaccine to not get Covid. But if vaccination passports come in, I'd rather have one.

According to this epidemiologist in the US, who has crunched the data, maybe it does affect you

Dr David Dowdy, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health who has analysed publicly reported state data, said it's safe to say at least 70,000 of the last 100,000 deaths were in unvaccinated people. And of those vaccinated people who died with breakthrough infections, most caught the virus from an unvaccinated person, he said.

 

“If we had been more effective in our vaccination, then I think it’s fair to say, we could have prevented 90 per cent of those deaths,” since mid-June, Dowdy said.

[mardigras]

2 minutes ago, Hesi said:

According to this epidemiologist in the US, who has crunched the data, maybe it does affect you

Dr David Dowdy, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health who has analysed publicly reported state data, said it's safe to say at least 70,000 of the last 100,000 deaths were in unvaccinated people. And of those vaccinated people who died with breakthrough infections, most caught the virus from an unvaccinated person, he said.

 

“If we had been more effective in our vaccination, then I think it’s fair to say, we could have prevented 90 per cent of those deaths,” since mid-June, Dowdy said.

Maybe, maybe not. I didn't suggest I couldn't get the virus or die from it. But my assessment of my risk is that the risk of the virus killing me is less than being run over by a bus should I go out. I still go out, so I'm happy with that risk and would have been happy with that risk if I was un-vaccinated.

I wouldn't be happy to be told I couldn't go to x or y or travel to z, if I wasn't vaccinated however. Hence I took the vaccine. (also equally, I thought the risk was very low of the vaccine having a short term inpact on my health).

[Hesi]

A couple of points

1.  In defense of the vaccine roll out timing in NZ.  The FDA gave emergency use approval back in Dec 2020, with full approval Aug 23 2021.  We have seen the resistance to getting vaccinated now, how much more resistance would there have been with only emergency use approval

2.  I come across a lot of people saying they have done their own research(which can only be on the internet), which they are entitled to do.  But in all honesty, can people think they can even come remotely close to matching a review of a 330,000 page submission that took the FDA 97 days to review, which approved the vaccine as safe.  Most of it, evaluation of highly advanced scientific research and development  Add to that the huge amount of ongoing monitoring by the FDA of in population data.

[Hesi]

I thought this was a very good apolitical, clear piece from Judith Collins

Covid-19: Delta is coming, get vaccinated now - Judith Collins

Judith Collins11:12, Oct 08 2021

 

 

OPINION: New Zealand is now at a point where our elimination strategy is coming to an end.

We saw this when the Government moved Auckland out of Level 4 despite having a heap of unlinked Covid-19 cases. In just two weeks of Level 3 case numbers grew, and we now also have cases moving through the Waikato.

For anyone who is still yet to be vaccinated, it’s important this simple fact sinks in.

Either in the next few weeks, in a month, or maybe a little later, New Zealand will have Covid-19 moving to every corner of our country.

 

National Party leader Judith Collins on vaccine certificates and Auckland's level 3 rule changes.

 

When this happens, if you are not vaccinated, you will probably get Covid-19.

 

 

Advertise with Stuff

You will probably get sick. You will go through weeks of severe pain. You could face long-term health issues such as chronic fatigue. If your lungs are damaged you may forever find it hard to exercise or work.

And Covid could kill you.

 

If you get vaccinated you might face a day or so of discomfort. If you don’t, there is a risk of death.

That is the equation you face.

Yet, there are other reasons to get vaccinated. Scientists haven’t yet worked out the specific dose for children under 12.

This will happen soon, but until it does, you owe it to kids who can’t get vaccinated to get vaccinated, to slow the transmission. To give kids the chance to be protected.

New Zealand has been relatively slow to join the global vaccination train. Our Government stood back for a long time saying other countries needed it more.

If we had vaccinated more people earlier it would have meant Delta spread more slowly when it got here and our current outbreak would have been eradicated with a much shorter lockdown. Now we are unfortunately in the space of using vaccines to slow transmission after Delta is already here.

ROBERT KITCHIN/STUFF

Judith Collins says Covid-19 will move into every corner of the country.

But if we all go out and get vaccinated now it will mean less time in lockdown and a sooner return to a life without border restrictions.

Life under lockdown is tough in Tāmaki Makaurau right now, and especially in vulnerable communities throughout South Auckland, including my electorate of Papakura.

 

Every day I hear from people from my electorate and throughout Tāmaki Makaurau who are struggling, both with the lockdown and getting clear, informed information about the vaccine.

Let’s be clear, the vaccine could save your life. It could save the lives of your whānau.

DAVID WHITE/STUFF

A huge turn out at the Vodafone Events Centre as thousands of families queue to get vaccinated in Auckland on Wednesday.

If vaccines seem a bit new and a bit scary, be assured that, worldwide, over six billion doses of Covid-19 vaccines have already been safely administered. Covid-19 vaccines are new, but billions of people have received them, so we can be confident they are safe.

Far from being fearful of this speed, we should celebrate it. It is no exaggeration to say the speed at which the Covid-19 vaccine was developed is one of the greatest human achievements of all time, already saving millions of lives worldwide.

 

 

 

 

You may hear a lot about how Britain has lifted lockdowns and is suffering large numbers of cases. But be aware that in Britain Covid-19 is now a disease of the unvaccinated.

In the six months from January to July, while Britain was rolling out its vaccine, over 50,000 Brits tragically died from Covid-19. That’s about the same as the entire population of Nelson.

But of these 50,000 people, less than one in every 100 were fully vaccinated.

The British data shows the vaccinated are much less likely to get the virus and, if they do, the symptoms are much milder.

For the small number of people in Britain who have been fully vaccinated and died, the average age is 84. In other words, even a mild illness can be risky towards the end of our lives.

ALBERTO PEZZALI/AP

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson, left, watches as a woman receive her Covid-19 vaccine, as he visits a vaccination centre at the StoneX Stadium, home of the rugby club Saracens, in North London.

In New Zealand’s outbreak the data is also clear. Just 3 per cent of all positive cases have been fully vaccinated.

 

NZ is moving way from elimination. A dangerous disease is coming to your community, but there is an easy way to protect yourself: get vaccinated.

One key point to be aware of. You can’t just go and get vaccinated the day Covid-19 is found in your neighbourhood. It will take around five weeks from when you are first vaccinated until the second dose is fully effective.

[pete]

This is lengthy but hugely informative from a guy who knows what he's talking about but shunned by those in power because he dares to disagree with what's been done so far.

https://www.facebook.com/EricaStanfordECB/videos/404464337711031/

[Hesi]

Anyone see the absurd irony here

 ****** ******* hasn’t had the Covid-19 vaccine. She is suspicious of it, but will consider it.......

[Maximus]

If you can read/interpret a simple graph, this one explains the 'get vaccinated' argument very well. 

If you can't read a graph, allow me to tell you:

nearly all the cases of Covid requiring care/treatment in hospital come from unvaccinated people.

Almost none of the people who have two vaccinations get so sick they require hospital care/treatment.

Simple, really.

Think you're doing yourself and your friends/whanau a favour by NOT getting the jabs? Think again.

It's all the hesitant and anti-vaxers who are causing this unnecessary pain right throughout the country. And if our hospital system ever does fail to cope with the pressure of too many cases all at once, it's not just the Covid patients who will suffer. Anti-vaxers and their whanau who (say) need emergency care in a hospital because of an accident, sudden illness or traumatic injury, you won't be able to ge tthe treatment you need.

So do the right thing now and take a couple of painless jabs for the greater good ..and your own!

MM