Covid-19 update

[Maximus]

56 minutes ago, Freda said:

Social media possibly making a big dent in their sales.  Just the last straw perhaps?

many of their titles are periodical magazines full of advertorial BS and gossip. Problem is, the indefinite lockdown breaks the cycle of continuity sales/content production/print/distribute - and many of their corporate clients will now be pulling the plug on large-scale ad campaigns in the short term and focusing on survival.

[Hesi]

Must be a lot of discussion going on in the halls of power, about what next after the 4 weeks is up, stay at level 4, drop back to level 3, restricted drop back to level 3 etc etc

At some stage, the cure becomes worse than the sickness, and I am sure this is what much of the debate will centre around

[mardigras]

16 minutes ago, Hesi said:

At some stage, the cure becomes worse than the sickness, and I am sure this is what much of the debate will centre around

At which point do you think that will be? 

[Hesi]

Not sure, and I presume these are the things that will be being discussed, namely, how long can a country stay in lockdown with respect to the economic damage done, with respect again to the country's ability to handle the health side

[PWJ]

25 minutes ago, mardigras said:

At which point do you think that will be? 

I think it will come sooner than many think

[Hesi]

Maybe a restricted level 3, sort of a 3.5

[PWJ]

Just my opinion but I think the Racing Industry here in Oz has taken the right approach. Attempt to keep going while strictly observing all protocols. Sure turnover has taken a hit with pubs, clubs, TABs being shut but immediate stakes reduction in what was already as healthy industry can be sustained. There is no reason whatsoever why the breeding season should be interrupted from an operational standpoint. A reduction in service fees for most stallions will reflect belt tightening due to business downturn among broodmare owners.

I fear for the industry in NZ. On the negative side it will take months (3-4) to get horses racing again even when the restrictions are lifted. It will cause many training operations to go under and field sizes will be minuscule (poor betting platforms). On the positive side this might force the government to give the industry the total revamp it was begging for. Ditch RITA on whatever its known as, contract out all betting to some professional corporate (SuperTAB, Ladbrokes etc) and leave the hierachy (trimmed dramatically) to just concentrate on making racing work. 

We (our company) are lucky this has occurred when we have No.1 status in the breeding business and could afford to withdraw from the Sydney Easter Sales and control our own destiny by selling our desirable product on a private treaty basis. It's worked well for us. Apart from the protocols which are easily observed it has worked well with regard to practical operations on the farm. 

Theoretically the heavy-handed approach NZ has taken to the virus should see them come out of it sooner than many other countries although their borders will need to be vigilantly managed. The fiscal cost though could be staggering and take many years to recover from. But everyone is pretty much in the same boat.     

[ngakonui grass]

Jacinda must be worried about her publicity photos appearing in less magazines.

[mardigras]

1 hour ago, barryb said:

That point is already past.

At the 4 week mark we need to be regionally opening up to level 3 where community infections have fallen away & then dropping to level 2 within 2 weeks in each locality.

If we go 8-12 weeks at level 4 then it wont matter much as there wont be an economy to revive.

I think if things haven't improved by 4 weeks of lockdown, and they then decide the cure is worse than the illness, then the economy will be tanked for years. If things haven't improved by 4 weeks of lockdown and they decide to carry on with the lockdown anyway in the hope it will improve, the economy will be tanked for years. There isn't really a back up plan available.

It was really an all or nothing plan. Do nothing, face the consequences. Do this and it doesn't work (or show strong signs of working), face the consequences.

[curious]

I think the argument is that a shorter earlier lock down with an earlier move to lower alert levels is likely to be less damaging economically than delaying the lock down in an effort to keep the economy ticking for longer but risk a much longer lockdown with more stress on the health system later as some other countries are being forced to do. I just hope they are right.

[Globederby19]

4 hours ago, PWJ said:

The fiscal cost though could be staggering and take many years to recover from

Correct, but apart from creaky joints, loss of hearing and sight, thats all I have to worry about as the grim reaper shadows me and the younger ones can pick up the tab to come in perpetuity. I knew there was a bright side to this after all.

[mardigras]

7 hours ago, PWJ said:

Just my opinion but I think the Racing Industry here in Oz has taken the right approach. Attempt to keep going while strictly observing all protocols. Sure turnover has taken a hit with pubs, clubs, TABs being shut but immediate stakes reduction in what was already as healthy industry can be sustained. There is no reason whatsoever why the breeding season should be interrupted from an operational standpoint. A reduction in service fees for most stallions will reflect belt tightening due to business downturn among broodmare owners.

I fear for the industry in NZ. On the negative side it will take months (3-4) to get horses racing again even when the restrictions are lifted. It will cause many training operations to go under and field sizes will be minuscule (poor betting platforms). On the positive side this might force the government to give the industry the total revamp it was begging for. Ditch RITA on whatever its known as, contract out all betting to some professional corporate (SuperTAB, Ladbrokes etc) and leave the hierachy (trimmed dramatically) to just concentrate on making racing work. 

I hope you're right re Oz. Time will tell on that. My kids who still live there, don't share your optimism.

For NZ. I expect this is one of the best things that could have happened (sounds harsh). Under the current processes, NZ racing is a loss maker. Every day they race, every day is money out the door. The sooner they realise the need to live within their means, the better. If that means closing down training establishments or cutting stakes, so be it. It should have happened years ago so hopefully this will be the driver to make that happen. They've been living and operating in an unsustainable fashion for 13+ years. And a drain on NZ society.

Most of the NZ racing administration is in la-la land.

[Hesi]

3 hours ago, Globederby19 said:

Correct, but apart from creaky joints, loss of hearing and sight, thats all I have to worry about as the grim reaper shadows me and the younger ones can pick up the tab to come in perpetuity. I knew there was a bright side to this after all.

Seeing as I know how old you are Rees, you could live for another 33 years, on that basis you are only 2/3 of the way through your life, so cheer up old fella.  Anyway, all the young girls will be chasing you, now you have a new shoulder

[Hesi]

One thing will decide where we go after 4 weeks, and that is the number of new cases and how many of those are community transmission..... I suppose that is 2 things

[curious]

11 hours ago, curious said:

I think the argument is that a shorter earlier lock down with an earlier move to lower alert levels is likely to be less damaging economically than delaying the lock down in an effort to keep the economy ticking for longer but risk a much longer lockdown with more stress on the health system later as some other countries are being forced to do. I just hope they are right.

Good editorial in the latest NEJM on this supports what we are doing here both health wise and economy wise.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2007263

[Hesi]

Here's a postive

I usually pay my ACC fees in 10 installments.

They have voluntarily increased that to 20, with no increase in any admin fees

Quite good i thought, and something for others on here to follow up on

[curious]

13 minutes ago, Hesi said:

Here's a postive

I usually pay my ACC fees in 10 installments.

They have voluntarily increased that to 20, with no increase in any admin fees

Quite good i thought, and something for others on here to follow up on

I'd have rather they knocked 20% off the fees. They should have big staff savings at the moment and for some time.

[Hesi]

5 minutes ago, curious said:

I'd have rather they knocked 20% off the fees. They should have big staff savings at the moment and for some time.

Spreading payments out so much, would be a big plus for many businesses

[curious]

15 minutes ago, Hesi said:

Spreading payments out so much, would be a big plus for many businesses

Yes, anything that assists cash flow at the moment is a plus.

[Maximus]

On 4/3/2020 at 9:15 PM, Hesi said:

One thing will decide where we go after 4 weeks, and that is the number of new cases and how many of those are community transmission..... I suppose that is 2 things

I agree, with the proviso that there has to be a big increase in the number of tests able to be done daily. We have been relatively quick to take relatively harsh measures - and there are encouraging signs of the curve flattening and total numbers being manageable . BUT our numbers have to stay low because we do not have the capacity to deal with a pandemic going into winter. I don't think the lockdown will be over in 4 weeks, because we can't let the cat out of the bag. The big 'unknown' is how many asymptomatic Kiwis returning after the 15 March lockdown (who were allowed to travel all over the country to then self-isolate) have passed on the virus?

[curious]

1 hour ago, Maximus said:

I agree, with the proviso that there has to be a big increase in the number of tests able to be done daily. We have been relatively quick to take relatively harsh measures - and there are encouraging signs of the curve flattening and total numbers being manageable . BUT our numbers have to stay low because we do not have the capacity to deal with a pandemic going into winter. I don't think the lockdown will be over in 4 weeks, because we can't let the cat out of the bag. The big 'unknown' is how many asymptomatic Kiwis returning after the 15 March lockdown (who were allowed to travel all over the country to then self-isolate) have passed on the virus?

True but we should be picking most of those up now or in the next week or so if they have passed on to contacts.

[LookingForValue]

On 4/1/2020 at 7:35 PM, brown fox said:

Haven't looked at BOAY for at least  6 months.Just checked and I'm suspended as well.

Think it's a group thing

Heroes, every one of them.

"The night had been particularly tough. Patient after patient had to be intubated and put on a ventilator to breathe. At one point, three “codes” — emergency interventions when someone is on the brink of death — occurred at once.

Dr. Joshua Rosenberg, a critical care doctor, arrived the next morning at the Brooklyn Hospital Center. Within hours, he was racing down the stairwell from the main intensive care unit on the sixth floor to a temporary one on the third, where he passed one of his favorite medical students.

“Shouldn’t you be home?” he asked, registering surprise. Clinical rotations for students had been halted to avoid exposing them to the coronavirus. “My mom’s here,” the student replied."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/nyregion/coronavirus-hospital-brooklyn.html

[curious]

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/239475/keeneland-stays-ahead-of-curve-in-war-against-covid-19

Impressive. I assume NZ clubs are engaged in similar activities and security measures in preparation for a safe resumption to training and racing. Hope your temperature was ok this morning Freda when you went on course to feed the cats and run the dogs.

[Hesi]

Comment from the co-leader of the NZ Outdoor Party, does she not realise the virus is no respecter of the Kiwi spirit

Co-leader Sue Grey said the government's action was "increasingly draconian".

"Let's break out of the fear and cotton wool mentality where we are locked inside buildings like frightened mice, and let's rediscover our Kiwi spirit," she said.

"Life is never going to be no risk."

[pete]

One dead Alan one dead.

When do you start weighing up the huge economic hardship going on against that?

We need to get out of this Level 4 thing as soon as possible.

As always, just my opinion.